Name: 無條件脫歐？！英國人知道它的後果嗎？ (What Could Happen After a No-Deal Brexit | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2019-10-22T21:01:20.000Z
Duration: 5 min 28 s

When I buy groceries here in England, I usually like to pick up things like apples, peppers, cheese, and wine, but that's now, before Brexit.

當我在英國逛超市的時候，我通常會買蘋果、胡椒、起司，和紅酒，但這是現在的情景，也就是脫歐之前。

第二類條件句型

If Britain were to crash out of the EU without a deal, these products might be hard to find in my local supermarket, so some economists say my grocery basket may look more like this.

如果英國選擇無條件脫歐，這些產品就會變得很難在當地超商找到，經濟學家說我們的購物籃可能會變得像這樣。

情態助動詞 B1

For the last few years, government agencies and companies across the country have been studying what might happen in case of a no-deal Brexit.

在過去幾年間，英國許多政府單位和公司都在研究無條件脫歐會帶來的後果。

It's better for all of us if we can leave the EU with a withdrawal agreement in place.

在離開歐盟的時候達成脫歐協定對大家都是最好的。

The government needs to be prepared for every eventuality, the departments are all working on the basis of a reasonable worst-case scenario.

政府需要做好準備以面對各種可能的狀況，現在所有部門都在為最壞的結果做打算。

The government has been doing a lot to try and prepare for a no-deal Brexit, but there is a limit to what the UK government can do on its own.

英國政府一直都很努力嘗試為無條件脫歐做準備，但它能做的還是有限。

According to government documents, Bank of England reports, and other studies, buying groceries would only be one of my problems.

根據政府的文件，英格蘭銀行和其他的研究報告指出，逛超市只會是我遇到的眾多問題之一。

Studies warn we could see home prices plummet by as much as 30%, medicine shortages, and a jump in inflation.

研究結果警告我們，之後房價可能會出現 30% 的下滑、藥物短缺，以及快速的通貨膨脹等問題。

First, let's explain what a no-deal Brexit actually is.

首先，先讓我解釋一下什麼是無條件脫歐。

In 2016, Britain voted to leave the European Union.

在 2016 年，英國公投結果的決定是離開歐盟。

Now, Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he's working to achieve what his predecessor, Theresa May, couldn't.

現在，英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜說自己正在嘗試完成前任首相梅伊沒有做到的事。

Strike an exit deal with the EU that Parliament can get behind, too.

與歐盟簽署一個國會也支持的脫歐協定。

If he can't, well, Johnson said he's pulling the UK out anyway.

如果辦不到，約翰遜說他還是會堅持脫歐。

We're leaving on the 31st of October, no ifs or buts.

我們會在十月三十一號離開歐盟，沒有任何「如果」或「但是」能夠阻止。

If that happens, Britain would leave the European Union overnight with no transition period to ease out of its membership.

如果真是如此，英國會在一夕間脫歐，而且沒有任何撤銷會員國身份前的過渡期。

That would be a no-deal Brexit, and according to a government document known as Operation Yellowhammer, the consequences could be pretty dire.

那就是無條件脫歐；而且根據政府文件「黃鵐行動」指出，它的後果是很可怕的。

Food shortages, crisis at the border, even the risk of rioting across the UK.

食物短缺、邊境危機、甚至在英國境內引發暴動的風險。

Food supplies and the economy as a whole could be hit, while government spending could dry sharply.

食物供應鏈和經濟本身都會被打擊，而政府的財政花費也會很快地枯竭。

所以，讓我們再回到超市購物的例子。

This pile is what we produce in the UK, and this is what we import.

這一部分是我們在英國製造的，而這些是我們進口的。

In a no-deal scenario, these fresh fruits and vegetables from other EU countries could go bad before they even reach the UK.

在無條件脫歐的情況下，這些從其他歐盟國進口的蔬果可能會在入境前就過期腐爛。

That's because thousands of shipments would have to go through new customs checks which could cause traffic jams and huge delays.

因為幾千艘貨運船都必須經過新的海關檢驗，而因此造成交通堵塞和運輸的延遲。

William Bain of the British Retail Consortium explains that the UK is particularly vulnerable to food shortages.

英國零售商協會的 William Bain 表示英國是很容易受食物短缺影響的。

Could you talk about how the UK stacks up against other countries, like, say, the U.S., in terms of our dependence on food imports, particularly from the EU?

你可以談談英國是如何在仰賴其他歐盟國進口食品的情況下與美國或是其他國家抗衡的嗎？

So we've been a net importer of foods, really, for the last few decades.

在過去幾十年中，我們都是食品的淨進口國。

I think consumer tastes are not going to change too much and we're still going to want to have our sandwiches with some tomato in it in December as much as we do in June or July.

我想顧客的口味不太會改變太多，我們還是會想在十二月、六月、和七月都吃到夾著幾片番茄的三明治。

For British exporters, a no-deal could also mean tariffs on products like cheese and beef, which, retailers say, could see levies of nearly 50%.

對英國出口商來說，無條件脫歐也等於加重起司、牛肉等商品的關稅，零售商說它們可能會被課徵到幾乎 50％ 的稅。

So how can Britain keep buying and selling goods across its borders?

那英國該如何繼續在國際間買進和賣出商品呢？

One answer could be negotiate new trade deals.

其中一個解答是商議出新的貿易協定。

As of September 2019, the UK government said it signed 14 new trade deals.

在 2019 年九月，英國政府表示他們已簽署了十四個新的貿易協定。

25 others are still in the works, but replacing the EU bloc, which is by far the UK's main trading partner, won't be easy.

還有 25 個協定正在商談中，但為了取代英國超群越輩的貿易夥伴歐盟，這將會是一個困難的工程。

One of the difficulties for knowing exactly what the impact of coming out of a deep free trade agreement is that countries haven't really done this in the past.

我們在評估離開自由貿易協定的影響時遇到的其中一個難題是，它沒有任何國家的先例。

There have been lots of examples of countries trying to integrate their trade more closely.

我們能掌握許多國家嘗試更緊密的整合貿易的例子。

There's essentially no examples of countries moving in the other direction.

但卻沒有任何一個往其反方向走的國家。

Perhaps the only example in the past was the breakup of the USSR.

唯一一個例子大概就是蘇聯的瓦解。

That was a single economic bloc that then broke up, but really apart from that, there's no past precedent to look back to.

那是歷史上一個貿易圈的解體，但除此以外，我們找不到其他能夠參考的先例。

The Bank of England's latest estimates say, in a worst-case scenario, GDP could fall by 5.5%, unemployment could almost double to 7%, and inflation could peak at 5.25%.

英格蘭銀行最新的評估顯示，在最壞的情形下，國內生產總值 (GDP) 會下跌 5.5%，失業率會加倍為 7%，而通貨膨脹率也會上漲到 5.25% 的頂點。

Other reports disagree on precisely how much the economy will be hurt by Brexit, but the vast majority of economists agree it wouldn't be good for the UK's economic growth.

其他報告則對其提出反對，尤其針對脫歐對經濟帶來的損害程度究竟有多少的部分，但大部分的經濟學家都同意脫歐無益於對英國的經濟成長。

Adding a no-deal into the equation, even worse.

若將「無條件」加進評估中，情況可能更糟。

So what is the government doing about it?

They currently have about 17,000 civil servants working on this specifically, and that is everything from trying to make sure that there are systems in place at the borders, at the ports, to ease the flow of lorries going through to France.

目前大概有一萬七千名公務員正在為此準備，確保適當的系統會在邊境和港口運作，以減低經過法國的貨車流量。

If the UK does leave the EU without a deal, the UK government may have to borrow around $37 billion every year from fiscal '21 onwards, according to one estimate.

根據評估，如果英國真的無條件地離開歐盟，英國政府可能會需要在財政年 2021 之後的每年借貸 370 億美元。

Those who support a no-deal say the investment is worth it, because it will lay a groundwork for a new, stronger UK, but those who oppose no-deal say there will be too much damage.

無條件脫歐的支持者認為這個投資是值得的，因為他會為一個全新且更強盛的英國打下一個好的基礎；但無條件脫歐的反對者則說這樣造成的傷害太大了。

Even with those best mitigations, it doesn't take away from the harm that's gonna be caused to the consumer by a no-deal Brexit.

即使我們有最好的配套措施，也無法消除無條件脫歐將會對消費者造成的傷害和衝擊。

Brexit opened up a huge amount of debate about the UK's trading relationships, not only with the EU, but with the rest of the world.

脫歐的議題在英國與歐盟到甚至是與世界的貿易關係上都引發了激烈的辯論。

We'll see what happens on the Brexit deadline, but like many Brits, I may want to stockpile some of this stuff just in case I can't get it anymore.

等到脫歐的期限那天我們才會知道後續會如何，但就像其他英國人一樣，我大概會想先庫存一些食品，畢竟以後可能都買不到了。