Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • A crisis of confidence.

  • Automobile production dropped 37 and a half percent.

  • Wall Street reacted very badly.

  • If you were looking at a very specific type of line.

  • You see, normally, this line points slightly upwardlike here, in September 1977.

  • But about a year later, it started pointing the other way, just slightly!

  • And then not long after that...

  • Boom.

  • The 1980 recession.

  • It happened again a few months later.

  • The line curved downward.

  • Then, boom, another recession.

  • And it happened again in 1988.

  • Again in 2000.

  • And again in the mid-2000s.

  • This line is called theyield curve.”

  • And that's why some experts freaked out when this happened ...

  • "A recession warning."

  • "Inverted yield curve."

  • "An inverted yield curve."

  • "Inverted yield curve."

  • So.

  • What the hell is this line?

  • It all starts with a US treasury bond.

  • A bond is basically an agreement saying: If you lend the federal government, say, a hundred

  • dollars... … they'll pay you interest while they hold

  • onto your money... … until the date they agreed to pay you

  • back.

  • And the longer you let the government keep your money, the higher the interest rate.

  • So you get more money.

  • Next you need to understand that most people don't buy bonds from the government.

  • They buy and sell them from each other, in the secondary market.

  • And the prices change, based on how much demand there is for a bond.

  • This basically means that the amount of profit you can make on each bond changes every day.

  • Trace these bars on any given day, and you get a curved line, showing the yields of different

  • bondsor what people call "the yield curve."

  • And normally, it points upward.

  • Now here's where it gets even more complicated.

  • Let's say you're an investor... and you have a hunch that an economic downturn

  • is coming, in the near future.

  • If your hunch is correct, that means that if you buy a two-year bond, you might get

  • your money back in a bad economy, and there might not be anything good to re-invest in.

  • That makes a two-year bond a lot less attractive to you.

  • And if lots of other people think this way, then the demand for two-year bonds plummets.

  • So they start selling for cheaper.

  • But because the two-year bond now costs less, it yields a better return, relative to that low cost.

  • And at the same time, investors who think a downturn is coming might think, I'd rather

  • invest in a 10-year bond that pays out way laterwhen I think the economic downturn

  • will be over.

  • So that bond gets more popular.

  • But it also gets more expensive.

  • So investors start yielding less money.

  • And if enough investors are acting on this expectation, the yield on a long-term bond,

  • which is almost always higher than on a short-term bond, can actually dip lower.

  • And if you draw that yield curve... … you can see it goes in the other direction.

  • It inverts.

  • In other words, when this chart looks like this, it means investors think an economic

  • downturn is probably coming in the near future.

  • And that's what's happening now.

  • So, is a recession coming?

  • Not necessarily.

  • But when re-design the chart so we can see all the years on a single screen

  • it's pretty safe to say: When the yield curve invertsit's not a good sign.

A crisis of confidence.

字幕與單字

單字即點即查 點擊單字可以查詢單字解釋

B1 中級

預測經濟衰退的圖表 (The chart that predicts recessions)

  • 1 0
    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
影片單字