Starbucks isn't just the world's largest coffee chain, it's also a bellwether stock.

星巴克不僅是全球最大的咖啡連鎖店，它也是一支指標股。

It tells us a lot about what's happening in the US and global economy, and what might be coming ahead in the future.

它告訴我們許多美國和全球經濟正在發生的狀況，以及未來有可能會發生的事。

So what is Starbucks telling us?

所以現在星巴克告訴了我們什麼？

Well, we've received recently some disturbing and somewhat surprising news from this company.

最近我們從這間公司得到一些令人擔心和有點令人驚喜的消息。

They're telling us that they're not going to be able to continue growing at a fast rate into 2020.

他們顯示自己在 2020 年已經無法繼續以高速成長。

Donald Trump's Tax cuts and share buybacks

唐納・川普的減稅政策及股票回購

One of the biggest factors in their success in the last couple of years has been the Trump tax cuts.

他們過去幾年成功的一項主要因素就是川普的減稅政策。

Those are running out.

但這項資源已經快用盡了。

And so the company is struggling to achieve the same kind of 10% year on year growth they had seen before in earnings per share.

所以這間公司很難再達到過去每股收益百分之 10 的同比增長。

What are they going to do now?

現在他們該怎麼辦？

Well, one of the things that Starbucks is doing, which is very indicative of a larger trend in corporate America, is share buybacks.

星巴克正在做的一件事情，這非常凸顯美國公司的一個趨勢，就是股份回購。

They are pulling forward a large number of share buybacks that they were expecting to do in 2020, in order to continue buoying those results.

他們正推動著要在 2020 年進行大量股份回購計畫，以使得那些結果繼續發展。

And this really speaks to the fact that corporate America has been doing a shell game in the last two years of issuing debt - cheap debt - debt load at Starbucks has increased threefold in the last couple of years, and then using that debt to buy back their own shares in order to buoy the price.

這非常好的說明了美國公司在過去兩年一直在進行一場騙局，他們發行債券，低廉債券，星巴克的債券量在過去幾年已經增加了三倍，然後用這些資金買回他們的股票好讓股價持續上升。

Now, this always works because they're artificially reducing the number of shares on the market, but a lot of people, like me, feel that it doesn't really represent a buy into a growth story.

這個方法永遠有效，因為他們人為地減少了市場上的股份，但是許多人，像我，並不覺得這代表著一個買入成長的佳話。

Share buybacks are not done best at the top of a market, but really at the bottom of a market.

股票回購不是頂尖市場的操作，而是市場底部的做法。

Which really says to me that this is not a bet on future growth of a stock, but rather an attempt to manufacture a story for the street.

這也告訴我，這不是對未來股價成長的打賭，而是試圖製造一個話題。

What does that tell us about corporate America and consumer trends?

關於美國公司和消費者趨勢，這告訴了我們什麼？

Right now we have stocks as expensive as they've been in the US for 150 years and yet companies are still continuing this game of issuing debt, buying back shares and trying to keep stocks up.

當前美國有許多公司的股價一如 150 年前一樣高，然而他們仍繼續用這種發行債券、股份回購進而使股價上漲的手段。

Now, Starbucks tells us that they think that the US consumer is still buoyant.

星巴克告訴我們，他們認為消費者仍是樂觀的。

That's important because many people, including the New York Fed chair, Rob Kaplan at the Dallas Fed, believe that the US consumer is the one thing standing between the US and recession.

這非常重要，因為許多人，包括紐約聯邦儲備銀行主席、達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行主席 Rob Kaplan 都相信，現在將美國擋在經濟衰退前的正是美國消費者。

The question is how long can that buoyancy continue?

問題是這股樂觀可以持續多久？

When is the US consumer gonna really feel that perhaps not all is well in corporate America?

美國消費者何時會感受到也許美國公司並不是真的「一切都好」？

Well, it could be that one bad jobs report, one bit of bad economic news, could topple that confidence.

有可能是那一份不好看的就業報告、一些負面的經濟新聞，都可能擊垮消費者的信心。

And this puts me in mind of something that founder Howard Schultz told me a few years back.

而這讓我想起幾年前創始人 Howard Schultz 跟我說過的一些事。

I interviewed him in 2015 when the company was actually announcing very good results.

2015 年當這間公司真的公布了非常好的結果時我曾經採訪過他。

But he stood up in front of a number of Wall Street analysts and said that the US consumer is fragile.

然而當時他對著一群華爾街分析師表示：美國消費者是脆弱的。

That, since the great financial crisis, consumers have become skittish.

自從金融危機之後，消費者們變得非常畏首畏尾。

The first sign of bad news they will button up their wallets.

一絲絲負面的消息就會讓他們勒緊錢包。

All we can do is hope for the sake of the US economy and the global economy that Starbucks's consumers and American consumers have had their double shot.

我們能做的就是祈禱，為了美國經濟和世界經濟，星巴克消費者和美國消費者都肯嘗試第二次。