The rate of change is itself speeding up.

改變的速度本身也在加快。

And 20 years from now power will have shifted dramatically.

從今以後的未來 20 年，權力會有明顯的轉移。

So who might be up and who might be down, twenty years from now?

所以 20 年後，哪些地區會崛起，又有哪些地區會沒落呢？

Let me take you on a journey of possibles.

讓我帶你遊歷這些可能性。

Up, Africa.

非洲崛起。

A rapidly increasing population could fuel Africa's surging economic growth.

非洲人口增加迅速，會刺激其急速上升的經濟成長。

With a pool of young, better educated and globally connected workers.

他們擁有眾多年輕、教育更良好且與世界接軌的勞動人口。

But the biggest revolution in Africa might be the spread of vast, super arrays of far cheaper solar panels.

但非洲最大的革命可能是大量分布、超大批超便宜的太陽能板。

To quote one energy guru:

我在此引述一句能源指標：

"The world will have learnt to put solar panels where the sun actually shines."

「未來這個世界理當會把太陽能板放在真正有太陽的地方。」

Also up, China.

另外，中國也將崛起。

THE superpower.

這個超級大國。

After cornering many of the worlds vital raw materials, could it now control both its own people and many other countries struggling to repay its loans.

在壟斷世界上許多重要原物料之後，中國能控制自己的人民以及其他多國嗎？那些欠債難還的國家。

Could we see a world where China exerts its influence through movies and music too?

我們有辦法看到中國將影響力發揮至電影、音樂領域裡嗎？

But if there are winners, which countries could be losers by 2039?

但既然有贏家，哪些國家在 2039 年會成為輸家？

Down, perhaps most of Europe.

大部分歐洲國家大概都會沒落。

Financial services and banking will be overwhelmingly driven by AI.

金融服務與銀行都將全面被人工智慧控制。

So Europe loses much of its global edge.

所以歐洲將失去其全球化的優勢。

Parents who once urged children to become lawyers and doctors, beg them to become designers, artists, even actors.

以前家長要求小孩成為律師和醫師，現在家長求孩子們成為設計師、藝術家，甚至是演員。

Anything creative, not easily done by robots.

只要有創意，不易被機器人取代。

Down but not out, the United States of America.

沒落，但還不至於退出的是美國。

Eclipsed by China and paying a price for getting late to wind and solar.

因中國的崛起黯然失色，並因未即時引入風力、太陽能發電而付出代價。

Also down, the Middle East.

另外將沒落的還有中東國家。

Largely ignored internationally because no one needs its oil and gas anymore.

在國際上大多被忽略，因為不再有人需要他們的石油和天然氣了。

So what commodities could be driving the future in 2039?

所以 2039 年，哪些日需品會推動我們的未來？

Fossil fuels have become the new forbidden fruit.

化石燃料將成為新的禁忌。

Oil has lost most of its value, alternative fuels plus a collapse in the use of plastics has seen to that.

石油已失去其價值，我們從替代燃料以及大量減塑就能觀察到。

Water, clean water, will be more precious than ever.

水，乾淨的水，將變得極為珍貴。

Water wars have replaced oil wars, along the Nile or any mighty river.

沿著尼羅河或任何一條大河，水戰爭將取代石油戰爭。

Conflicts could break out as states closest to the sea fight those further upstream, accused of taking too much of the water.

靠海的城市可能會與位於河流上游的國家爭執，並可能爆發衝突，原因是上游取水過多。

Data, however, will be king.

然而，數據將稱霸。

By 2039, more and more is being bought and sold.

到了 2039 年，越來越多數據資料會被買進、賣出。

Mostly illegally and in secret.

多數為暗自非法買賣。

All governments will rely on data as THE method of control.

所有執政者都將依賴數據，它將成為治理國家的主要手法。

Some countries will have followed the Scandinavian lead.

有些國家可能會跟著北歐國家的帶領。

By choosing near total transparency—of tax returns, earnings, lifestyles to reduce the secret data threat.

選擇幾乎全面透明化，如退稅、所得、生活方式，以減少秘密數據帶來的威脅。

And more and more citizens everywhere could be fighting back—becoming data refuseniks.

而將有越來越多公民在世界各處反抗，成為數據反對者。

Fed up with the negative effects of social media, will they simply abandon cyber space wherever they can?

他們受夠了社群媒體帶來的負面影響，他們是否會盡可能放棄使用網際網路呢？

Minimizing their electronic footprint even reverting to writing and delivering private messages by hand.

減少他們的數位足跡，甚至回到手寫並郵寄私人信息。