"I think we will make a deal with China."

「我認為我們最後能和中國達成協議。」

"I really think they want to."

「我認為他們也希望如此。」

"I think they sort of have to."

「而他們也別無選擇。」

The reality is more complicated.

但事實往往更複雜。

President Xi Jinping has leverage, too.

中國國家主席習近平手中也握有籌碼。

Available data about the Chinese economy shows plenty of trouble.

可靠數據顯示中國經濟發展正面臨危機。

Stocks on the Shanghai Composite Index declined 25% last year.

上海綜合股價指數去年下跌了 25%。

China reported 2018 growth of 6.6%, the slowest in 30 years.

中國在 2018 年發布的經濟增長率為 6.6%，為 30 年來新低。

The question is why?

我們想知道的是：為什麼呢？

Nick Lardy, an expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics says the biggest factor is Beijing's own internal economic policies.

彼得森國際經濟研究所專家 Nick Lardy 表示，最大的因素是北京內部的經濟政策。

Trump's tariffs, he says, have made China's economy only slightly worse.

他認為川普提高關稅造成中國經濟放緩。

But the tariffs have also hurt America's economy.

但關稅增加同時也對美國經濟造成衝擊。

Wall Street has grown jittery, U.S. growth is slowing.

華爾街持續動盪，美國經濟亦放緩。

And unlike Xi Jinping whose term is unlimited, Trump faces voters next year.

而與中國不同的是，習近平任期無限，川普明年則須面對選民才得以連任。

All those factors would seem to point toward the two largest economies making a modest compromise.

以上種種因素似乎都指向這兩個全球最大經濟體必須各退一步。

Just like the deal Trump made with Canada and Mexico to revise NAFTA.

就如川普為修改北美自由貿易協定，與加拿大、墨西哥達成的協議。

"Called U.S.M.C.A. Sort of just works."

「我們的『美墨加協定』似乎是成功了。」

Trade specialists say Xi won't eliminate his signature Made in China 2025 program or wipe out Beijing's huge trade surplus in two years, as Trump has demanded.

國際貿易專家認為習近平並不會如川普所要求，在兩年內終止自己的「中國製造 2025」政策或削減對美國的貿易順差。

But Beijing might agree to bring down that surplus by purchasing more U.S. goods and open new markets to American exporters.

但中國政府或許願意進口更多美國產品以減少順差額，並為美國出口商開拓新市場。。

If Trump portrays that as a White House victory, Beijing won't mind.

北京政府不介意川普將此舉視為美國的勝利。

Because in some ways Trump's America First policy has been helping China.

因為中國某方面也是川普「美國優先」外交政策的受益者。

By exiting the Trans-Pacific Partnership and roiling U.S. allies, Trump has opened the door for a larger Chinese role in global trade.

川普推動美國退出 TPP 以及與盟友間的動盪局勢，皆為中國開啟了立足國際貿易的大門。

"I think the Chinese were ecstatic that the United States pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership."

「我認為中國對於美國退出 TPP 感到十分狂喜。」

"And that is an element of the Trump presidency that they're very, very pleased with."

「這是中國對川普任期期間感到非常、非常滿意的一步。」

"And they are taking advantage of it."

「而中國正利用這樣的局面獲益。」

"They want to create a regional economic trading system that revolves around China, and not one in which the U.S. is involved, much less a major player."

「他們想建立一個以中國為首的區域經濟貿易體。他們不希望美國參與，更遑論以美國為經濟中心了。」

By diminishing other international commitments he enlarges China's opportunity for expanded influence through its Belt and Road Initiative of overseas investment.

川普在與他國協議上的銳減，增加了中國推動「一帶一路」海外投資的機會。

"It's planned as one of the largest and most comprehensive development projects in human history."

「這預計成為人類歷史上最廣泛、最全面的開發項目。」

"They are relentlessly seeking control of ports and raw materials' flows all over Africa."

「中國持續地試圖控制非洲各地的港口與原物料流。」

"I mean it is such a nakedly neocolonial strategy."

「這擺明了是新殖民主義策略。」

And by downplaying human rights, Trump has relieved a non-economic source of American pressure on the authoritarian Chinese regime.

而中國對人權的不重視，減輕了川普對中國獨裁政權的非經濟壓力。

Just as President Trump predicts big economic benefits from a China trade deal, his aides insist the administration is upholding American influence in other ways.

正當川普預言與中國的貿易協定將帶來高經濟利益，他的幕僚堅稱川普政府正透過其他方式發揮美國影響力。

A White House spokesman questioned the idea that Trump has downplayed human rights at all, and noted that the administration is pursuing economic, security and governance cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region without TPP.

白宮發言人曾對川普不重視人權一說抱有懷疑，並表示川普政府正於退出 TPP 後實行經濟、國防以及與印太地區的管轄合作。

In addition to trade, Vice President Pence said recently that cooperation includes infrastructure projects better than the "unsustainable poor quality" kind in China's Belt and Road Initiative.

除了貿易之外，美國副總統彭斯近日表示合作項目包含基礎建設，並批中國一代一路建設項目為「無法持久的惡劣品質」，不及美國。

"Know that the United States offers a better option."

「要知道，美國提供更好的選擇。」

"We don't drown our partners in a sea of debt."

「我們不會讓合作夥伴沈於債務之海。」

"We don't coerce or compromise your independence."

「我們不會脅迫或危害你們的主權獨立。」

"The United States deals openly and fairly."

「美國的行事方式公開且公平。」

"We do not offer a constricting belt or a one way road."

「我們不會提議建立一個約束性的地帶，或一條單向的道路。」

"When you partner with us we partner with you, and we all prosper."

「當你們與我們合作時，我們也與你們合作，而我們將共榮共存。」

Even if the Trump administration can reach a bilateral trade deal with China; Experts like Larry Diamond worry that Beijing's broader effort to expand its global power may work, at the expense of America and the Western world.

即便川普政府有辦法與中國達成雙邊協議；專家如 Larry Diamond 還是擔心北京將持續擴張其國際勢力，且將成功，並拿美國與西方各國作為犧牲品。

"I really cannot imagine a more realistic scenario for the future shape of the world;"

「我真的無法想像我們未來世界的局面比現在還真實；」

"Not inevitable but plausible that is more frightening than having an unreconstructed and increasingly neo-totalitarian, Orwellian Chinese Communist Party state being the dominant and hegemonic superpower in the world."

「這樣的演變並非無可避免卻十分真實，此局面之於思想守舊、新極權主義、歐威爾式的中國共產黨成為掌控支配全球的超級霸權，更令人懼怕。」

"The alternative to that has got to be a comprehensive strategy led by the world's democracies,

「我們的另一項唯有讓全球民主國家共同帶領一套全面策略。」

"To project our own values of freedom, democracy, personal autonomy and innovation, freedom of ideas and information and to counter the Chinese narrative."

「以凸顯我們對自由、民主、自主性與創新等價值的重視，以及思想與信息自由的價值，並反抗中國模式。」