On May 16th, Huawei was added to the Commerce Department's Entity List, which restricts it from doing business with any US company without explicit government approval.

在 5 月 16 日，華為被列入美國商務部的管制實體清單中，該清單限制其在未經政府明確批准的情況下，不准與任何美國的公司進行商務往來。

There's a small carve-out for maintaining phones that have already shipped, but basically, it means a de facto ban on US companies selling to Huawei.

雖然通融已出貨的手機繼續販賣，但基本上這表示美國的公司對華為販賣商品的行為已經是個心照不宣的禁令。

Google has already revoked the company's Android license, and Intel and Qualcomm are considering similar moves.

谷歌已經撤銷了該公司 Android 系統的許可，而英特爾和高通正在考慮進行類似的措施。

It's part of a much bigger fight between the US and China, and it goes a lot deeper than what you've probably read.

這是中美貿易戰爭中最激烈的一戰，也可能比你閱讀過的任何報導還要再更嚴重，影響更深遠。

Your cellphone, your laptop, your air conditioner, your light bulbs, all of it was probably made in China.

你的手機、筆電、冷氣、燈泡可能都是中國製造。

And if you're in the US, it came by the same trade route that's now breaking down.

如果你身處在美國，這些產品的貿易路線正在崩解中。

But to realize why all that's happening, you have to look at the big picture.

若要知道這一切的來龍去脈，你就必須了解它的「全貌」。

If you wanted to put a date on the beginning of the modern electronics industry, 1980 would be a pretty good choice.

如果想在現代電子業的起點標明日期的話，那麼 1980 年會是個很棒的起始點。

It was the year of Apple's IPO, the year that the personal computer evolved from a niche hobby into a mass-market consumer product.

這是蘋果首次公開募股的一年，也就是電腦從個人愛好發展成為大眾市場消費產品的一年。

But, more importantly, it was the year China created the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, a space where Chinese companies could trade in a free market backed up by the power of communist central planning.

但更重要的是，這也是中國創建深圳經濟特區的一年，中國企業可以通過共產黨中央計劃的力量在自由市場上進行貿易。

If the government wanted exports to be cheaper, it could forcibly lower the exchange rate.

如果政府希望出口的價格更低廉，則它可以強硬地降低匯率。

If a bunch of houses were getting in the way of factory construction, they could just tear the houses down.

如果有一堆房子妨礙工廠的興建，他們大可以把房子全數拆除。

Over the next 40 years, that system built Shenzhen into the greatest manufacturing hub the world's ever seen at the same time that the tech industry was coming into its own.

在過去的 40 年來，該制度將深圳打造成世界上最大的製造中心，同一時間，科技產業也正在崛起。

Those 40 years gave us the personal computer, the smartphone, and the quad-copter drone, with each generation of tech relying a little bit more on the Trans-Pacific trade.

這 40 年來，從個人電腦、智慧型手機一直到四軸無人機，每個世代都更加仰賴這條跨太平洋貿易鍊。

It's not that we wouldn't have smartphones without China's factory push, but they might look completely different and cost a lot more.

這並不代表沒有了中國工廠的推動，我們就不會擁有智慧型手機，但情況可能會完全不同且手機價格也會比現在高出許多。

Now, that system is starting to break down, and it's not just because of Huawei.

現在，那個體制正在崩解中，且這種情況不只是因為華為。

We're in the middle of a really ugly trade war.

我們正身處於醜陋的貿易戰爭中。

In May, Trump announced a plan to raise import taxes as high as 25 percent on laptops and smartphones from China.

今年五月，川普頒布了一項計劃，將中國筆電和智慧型手機的進口關稅提高 25％。

Each new tariff from the US is met with more tariffs from China, which then triggers more retaliation from the US.

美國每課一項新的關稅，中國就會跟進向美國課相同的稅，這造成美國更多的報復行為。

So far, the most damaging move from China has been a new tax on soybean imports, which has left the prices plummeting and costs US farmers billions of dollars.

到目前為止，中國最具破壞性的舉動是對大豆進口課徵新稅，這使得價格暴跌並使美國農民損失數十億美元。

We're seeing executives arrested and jailed on both sides, risking an unprecedented collapse in trade.

我們可以看到雙邊的負責人皆被拘捕入獄，這有可能導致前所未有的貿易崩盤。

At first, Huawei's problems were more about security than economics.

一開始，華為所造成的問題比較偏向安全層面而非經濟面。

Given how much Chinese spying happens in the US, a lot of people in the intelligence community are nervous about a Chinese company operating American cell towers.

到底有多少中國間諜活動在美國呢？情報界很擔心中國的公司控制了美國的行動通信基地台。

But this latest move goes further, putting Huawei's entire cell phone business in jeopardy.

但最近的舉動又再更進一步，使華為整個手機產業陷入危機之中。

Even the CEO admits it's really hard to build a phone without US microchips.

執行長甚至承認，若沒有美國提供的微晶片根本很難生產手機。

The big picture problem is that building US goods in China just doesn't seem like that great of a deal anymore.

最大的問題在於，在中國生產製造美國品牌的商品看起來已經不再是一筆好的交易了。

In the '80s and '90s, leaders in both countries saw outsourcing as a win-win.

在 80、90 年代，兩國的元首皆把外包視為雙贏的局面。

American consumers got cheaper goods, and Chinese workers got lifted out of poverty and exposed to democratic ideas at the same time.

美國消費者獲得更便宜的商品，中國工人因此而擺脫貧窮，同時也能接觸民主思想。

In the US, it was great for microchip designers and tech shareholders but bad for factory jobs, and it contributed a lot to the cratering of the middle class.

美國對於微晶片設計師和技術股東來說是個非常棒的地方，但卻不利於製造業，且造成中產階層的消失。

On the Chinese side, those same factory jobs have made the country a lot richer.

在中國方面，這樣的工廠製造作業使這個國家變得更加富裕。

More imports are coming in, so China has unwound a lot of the currency manipulation that made exports so cheap to begin with.

越來越多的進口產品進入市場，因此中國大幅解除了對於貨幣控制，使得出口價格開始變得非常便宜。

As a result, manufacturers have started looking to India and Vietnam for cheap factory labor.

因此，製造商開始轉往印度和越南以尋求更加廉價的勞動力。

And Chinese tech companies want to design phones instead of just assembling them.

而中國的科技公司不再想單單組裝手機，它們想進一步設計手機。

And they're less reliant on the US market than ever.

而後中國對於美國市場的貿易依存度就變得更低了。

So what does all that mean for Huawei?

所以這對華為來說意味著什麼呢？

If the commerce order holds up and the US doesn't grant any licenses, it means the company may have to make a phone without any US components.

如果業界訂單持續而美國卻不給予任何許可，這表示該公司可能要製造沒有任何美國生產零件的手機。

That means no Gorilla Glass and no Micron flash memory, among other parts.

這表示他們的手機將沒有大猩猩玻璃 (專業的鋁矽鋼化玻璃)、沒有美光出品的記憶卡，其他零件亦是如此。

But all those parts have foreign competitors, even if they're more expensive and not quite as good.

但這些零件的廠商都有其他國外的競爭者，雖然它們可能更貴且品質不佳。

Huawei doesn't want to build a phone without US parts, but they probably can if they have to.

華為並不希望在沒有美國零件的情況下製造手機，但若有必要的話，他們可能還是會這麼做。

You can't say the same thing for US companies.

但這樣的例子不能類推至美國的公司。

If Apple had to build an iPhone without China or even just stop selling iPhones in the Chinese market, it would be a disaster for the company.

如果蘋果必須在沒有中國零件的情況下製造 iPhone，或甚至停止在中國市場銷售 iPhone，那對蘋果公司來說會是很大的災難。

Moving factories takes years, and it would plunge the entire industry into chaos.

遷廠需要花上數年時間，這可能使整個產業陷入混亂。

There's still time to avoid that, but there's no sign of either side backing down.

我們還有時間避免這種情況發生，但目前並沒有任何跡象顯示中美任何一方會讓步。

And if we keep going, the US may have a lot more to lose than China.

如果繼續這樣下去的話，美國一定會比中國損失更多。

Thanks for watching.

謝謝觀賞。

If you want to know more about how this is affecting gadget makers in the US, Ashley Carman has a great video about sort of what all the tariff stuff means.

如果你想要更加了解這對於美國零件製造商的影響的話， Ashely Carman 有個很棒的關於所有關稅介紹的影片。

And as always, like and subscribe.

如往常一般，記得按讚和訂閱喔！