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  • It's the Second World War.

    這是在第二次世界大戰時

  • A German prison camp.

    德國的一個戰俘營

  • And this man,

    而這位軍人

  • Archie Cochrane,

    是已故英國臨床流行病學者亞契.柯克倫(Archie Cochrane)

  • is a prisoner of war and a doctor,

    既是戰俘也是醫生,

  • and he has a problem.

    他當時有個難題

  • The problem is that the men under his care

    多名接受他治療的病人

  • are suffering

    正飽受令人費解之病痛

  • from an excruciating and debilitating condition

    這種病使患者感到劇烈疼痛, 渾身無力

  • that Archie doesn't really understand.

    亞契苦思不得其解

  • The symptoms

    他們的症狀

  • are this horrible swelling up of fluids under the skin.

    是皮下嚴重水腫

  • But he doesn't know whether it's an infection, whether it's to do with malnutrition.

    然而他無法確定水腫是由病菌所感染, 還是營養不良所引起

  • He doesn't know how to cure it.

    那時,他遍尋不著良方

  • And he's operating in a hostile environment.

    更何況那是在惡劣的環境之下

  • And people do terrible things in wars.

    兵馬倥傯戰亂之中

  • The German camp guards, they've got bored.

    德軍軍營守衛如果閒著無聊

  • They've taken to just firing into the prison camp at random

    就對戰俘營裡恣意掃射

  • for fun.

    打發時間並尋開心。

  • On one particular occasion,

    某次

  • one of the guards threw a grenade into the prisoners' lavatory

    一名警衛扔手榴彈

  • while it was full of prisoners.

    到人滿為患的犯人廁所內。

  • He said he heard suspicious laughter.

    守衛的理由是,他聽到可疑的笑聲。

  • And Archie Cochrane, as the camp doctor,

    亞契.柯克倫 ,這名營區的醫生,

  • was one of the first men in

    是首批進去收拾善後,

  • to clear up the mess.

    處理慘狀的人之一。

  • And one more thing:

    另外,

  • Archie was suffering from this illness himself.

    亞契也身染該病。

  • So the situation seemed pretty desperate.

    這千鈞一髮的情況下,

  • But Archie Cochrane

    足智多謀的亞契

  • was a resourceful person.

    想辦法取得資源

  • He'd already smuggled vitamin C into the camp,

    悄悄地走私維他命C進去營區

  • and now he managed

    而且當時

  • to get hold of supplies of marmite

    他還設法換取

  • on the black market.

    黑市裡的麴精

  • Now some of you will be wondering what marmite is.

    在座的各位,也許正在猜想麴精是什麼?

  • Marmite is a breakfast spread beloved of the British.

    其實那是英式早餐的一種麵包醬

  • It looks like crude oil.

    外型看似未提煉的原油,黝黑色。

  • It tastes ...

    嘗起來

  • zesty.

    棒透了。

  • And importantly,

    更重要的是,

  • it's a rich source

    麵包裡富含

  • of vitamin B12.

    維他命B12。

  • So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can

    亞契將這群他苦心照料的病人

  • into two equal groups.

    分成兩組。

  • He gives half of them vitamin C.

    一組餵以維他命C。

  • He gives half of them vitamin B12.

    另一組則以維他命B12。

  • He very carefully and meticulously notes his results

    醫生鉅細靡遺地

  • in an exercise book.

    在筆記簿上記下結果。

  • And after just a few days,

    數日之後,

  • it becomes clear

    一切撥雲見日。

  • that whatever is causing this illness,

    無論病因為何,

  • marmite is the cure.

    麵包醬就是解藥。

  • So Cochrane then goes to the Germans who are running the prison camp.

    因此,柯克倫便去見德軍營長,

  • Now you've got to imagine at the moment --

    在座的各位,試想在此時此刻--

  • forget this photo, imagine this guy

    先把這張照片丟至九霄雲外,只要想像

  • with this long ginger beard and this shock of red hair.

    一下巴剪不斷理還亂的鬍鬚,和一頭震懾人的紅髮

  • He hasn't been able to shave -- a sort of Billy Connolly figure.

    許久未能整理儀容,猶如比利康諾利的柯克倫

  • Cochrane, he starts ranting at these Germans

    朝著這些德國人咆哮

  • in this Scottish accent --

    帶著蘇格蘭口音

  • in fluent German, by the way, but in a Scottish accent --

    卻極其流利的德文

  • and explains to them how German culture was the culture

    數落對方,坐擁孕育世界偉人席勒和歌德

  • that gave Schiller and Goethe to the world.

    的偉大文化

  • And he can't understand

    竟能容忍這些野蠻行徑。

  • how this barbarism can be tolerated,

    他完全無法理解這些德國人。

  • and he vents his frustrations.

    他發完這頓牢騷之後,

  • And then he goes back to his quarters,

    踱步回房。

  • breaks down and weeps

    情緒失控,落下男兒淚。

  • because he's convinced that the situation is hopeless.

    畢竟他認為情況陷入絕望,束手無策。

  • But a young German doctor

    此時,一名年輕的德軍軍醫

  • picks up Archie Cochrane's exercise book

    拾起亞契.科克倫的筆記簿

  • and says to his colleagues,

    對同僚說:

  • "This evidence is incontrovertible.

    「事實擺在眼前,

  • If we don't supply vitamins to the prisoners,

    倘若我們再不提供戰俘維他命,

  • it's a war crime."

    會有違人道。」

  • And the next morning,

    於是,翌日清晨,

  • supplies of vitamin B12 are delivered to the camp,

    營區便提供維他命B12補給

  • and the prisoners begin to recover.

    而戰俘便逐漸好轉。

  • Now I'm not telling you this story

    我敘述這個故事的原因

  • because I think Archie Cochrane is a dude,

    並非因為我視亞契.柯克倫為堂堂漢子

  • although Archie Cochrane is a dude.

    雖然他的確也是。

  • I'm not even telling you the story

    講這個故事的理由是

  • because I think we should be running

    我們都該更

  • more carefully controlled randomized trials

    小心去掌控公共政策的所有層面

  • in all aspects of public policy,

    下的隨機試驗。

  • although I think that would also be completely awesome.

    即便,個人淺見,隨機試驗本身其實很棒。

  • I'm telling you this story

    向各位闡述故事是為了

  • because Archie Cochrane, all his life,

    解釋亞契. 柯克倫,

  • fought against a terrible affliction,

    終其一生與苦難對抗

  • and he realized it was debilitating to individuals

    而他明瞭,苦難對個體的蠶食

  • and it was corrosive to societies.

    對整個社會的鯨吞。

  • And he had a name for it.

    他將此命名為:

  • He called it the God complex.

    上帝情結。

  • Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily.

    接下來,為各位簡述上帝情結的症狀。

  • So the symptoms of the complex

    這些症狀就像是

  • are, no matter how complicated the problem,

    無論遭遇的問題有多錯綜複雜

  • you have an absolutely overwhelming belief

    你總是有無與倫比的信心

  • that you are infallibly right in your solution.

    總而言之,你認為你的解決之道正確且毋庸置疑

  • Now Archie was a doctor,

    身為一名醫生,

  • so he hung around with doctors a lot.

    亞契與醫生為伍

  • And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot.

    醫生很容易有上帝情結。

  • Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor,

    而我是一名經濟學家,並非醫生,

  • but I see the God complex around me all the time

    在我眼裡,患有上帝情結的經濟學者,

  • in my fellow economists.

    比比皆是。

  • I see it in our business leaders.

    舉凡企業頭子、

  • I see it in the politicians we vote for --

    甚至是我們票選出的政治人物。

  • people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world,

    這些人,身處在複雜程度難以置信的世界裡,

  • are nevertheless absolutely convinced

    卻百分百相信

  • that they understand the way that the world works.

    世界的運轉,自己瞭若指掌

  • And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about,

    在座各位也曉得,我們將與未來的數十億人口共存,

  • the world is simply far too complex

    如果還是用老法子去思考,

  • to understand in that way.

    是難以理解這複雜的世界。

  • Well let me give you an example.

    讓我為各位舉個例子。

  • Imagine for a moment

    花幾秒想像一下

  • that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you,

    站在台上的人不是我,

  • there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs.

    而是漢斯.羅史齡,在展示圖表。

  • You know Hans:

    各位眼中的漢斯:

  • the Mick Jagger of TED.

    就好比TED集團的米克.傑格。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics,

    他會秀出這些驚人的數據,

  • these amazing animations.

    讚為觀止的動畫。

  • And they are brilliant; it's wonderful work.

    這挺棒的!

  • But a typical Hans Rosling graph:

    一個典型的漢斯.羅史齡會用的圖表:

  • think for a moment, not what it shows,

    試想圖表除了本身,

  • but think instead about what it leaves out.

    還喻含的意義。

  • So it'll show you GDP per capita,

    各位將會看到國內生產毛額、

  • population, longevity,

    人口、壽命,

  • that's about it.

    大概就是這些東西。

  • So three pieces of data for each country --

    若每個國家都

  • three pieces of data.

    列舉三種資訊

  • Three pieces of data is nothing.

    才三種並沒有什麼。

  • I mean, have a look at this graph.

    且讓我們看一下該表。

  • This is produced by the physicist Cesar Hidalgo.

    我指的是這個物理學家所作的表。

  • He's at MIT.

    凱薩.荷德果 畢業於MIT(麻省理工)。

  • Now you won't be able to understand a word of it,

    目前各位可能一點也看不懂這個表。

  • but this is what it looks like.

    但看起來像是這樣子。

  • Cesar has trolled the database

    凱薩把逾5000多筆的產品的資料庫

  • of over 5,000 different products,

    提取分析。

  • and he's used techniques of network analysis

    利用網路分析的技術

  • to interrogate this database

    藉此整合資料庫,

  • and to graph relationships between the different products.

    並將不同結果間的關係視覺圖像化。

  • And it's wonderful, wonderful work.

    創出這件傑出的作品,

  • You show all these interconnections, all these interrelations.

    所有的互動、交互關聯一目了然。

  • And I think it'll be profoundly useful

    欲瞭解經濟如何成長,

  • in understanding how it is that economies grow.

    看這個圖表便能略知一二。

  • Brilliant work.

    真是傑作。

  • Cesar and I tried to write a piece for The New York Times Magazine

    凱薩和我試圖替紐時雜誌撰寫一篇文章,

  • explaining how this works.

    藉此解釋運作方式。

  • And what we learned

    從中,我們習得的是

  • is Cesar's work is far too good to explain

    僅一篇的篇幅,不夠解釋

  • in The New York Times Magazine.

    凱薩的傑作。

  • Five thousand products --

    5000筆結果

  • that's still nothing.

    不費吹灰之力。

  • Five thousand products --

    5000筆結果耶!

  • imagine counting every product category

    試想算出每個

  • in Cesar Hidalgo's data.

    在資料庫裡的分類

  • Imagine you had one second

    一秒鐘

  • per product category.

    能算出的分類結果。

  • In about the length of this session,

    同個時間範圍內,

  • you would have counted all 5,000.

    各位會得到5000筆。

  • Now imagine doing the same thing

    如果,如法炮製到

  • for every different type of product on sale in Walmart.

    沃爾瑪超市內特價的各種商品

  • There are 100,000 there. It would take you all day.

    那裡有十萬種商品,數完要花上一整天的時間。

  • Now imagine trying to count

    試想,

  • every different specific product and service

    在一個主要的經濟體內,像是在東京、倫敦或紐約

  • on sale in a major economy

    計算在打折的

  • such as Tokyo, London or New York.

    每種不同的產品和服務。

  • It's even more difficult in Edinburgh

    算愛丁堡內的甚至會難上加難,

  • because you have to count all the whisky and the tartan.

    因為還得加算威士忌和格子呢。

  • If you wanted to count every product and service

    假設想算出每種

  • on offer