The Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index seeks to measure the health of democracy in pretty much all the countries around the world.

經濟學人智庫民主指數旨在衡量全球幾乎所有國家的民主健全程度。

It breaks this down into five categories.

它的衡量標準有這五個。

The electoral process, the functioning of government, civil liberties, political participation, and political culture.

選舉流程、政府運作、公民自由、政治參與，以及政治文化。

The scores range from Norway, which we rate as the most democratic country on Earth, all the way down to North Korea, a hereditary communist monarchy which is by far the least.

排名第一是挪威，我們將它評為地球上最民主的國家，最後一名是北韓，一個世襲的社會主義君主制。

Although the world has obviously gotten a lot more democratic over the past century and the past 30 years since the end of the Cold War, but since the EIU started measuring it ,which was in 2006, things appear to have regressed somewhat.

雖然自冷戰結束至今的 30 年間，世界已經越來越民主了，但自從經濟學人智庫自 2006 年起開始評量，事情不知怎地開始有逆行的現象。

2. Is democracy in danger?

2. 民主是否危在旦夕？

Today, roughly half the world's people live in some form of democracy but by our rather strict measurements, only about 5% live in what we call a full democracy and a good third or so live in solid authoritarian regimes with a big portion of that in China.

在今日，世界上約有一半的人生活在某程度的民主下，但據我們嚴格的評量標準來看，僅有 5% 的人是生活在我們所謂的「完全民主」下，並且有三分之一或更多的人是生活在純然的獨權體制下，如中國。

One of the less gloomy findings is that political participation seems to be up.

一個比較不那麼悲觀的發現是，政治參與有增加的現象。

This is probably related to a widespread feeling, in a lot of countries, that democracy's under threat.

這或許導因於許多國家中人們對於民主受到威脅的普遍危機感。

The threats of fake news, subversion by foreign powers such as Russia, and the rise of authoritarian leaders from Hungary to Poland to all kinds of places.

假新聞的威脅、受到如俄國的外國勢力顛覆，以及例如在匈牙利、波蘭和其他各種地方獨裁領導者的掌權。

It means that people can't take democracy for granted anymore, and so you'll see a lot more people demonstrating in the streets, getting out to vote and organizing online.

那意味著，人們不再將民主視為理所當然，更多的人在街頭示威抗議、參與投票並且在網路上組織。

3. Women in politics.

3. 政治中的女性身影。

The most improved indicator was to do with women's participation in politics.

進展最多的指標是女性在政治上的參與。

Partly that reflects a genuine improvement in the status of women and the increased likelihood that voters are prepared to vote for them.

這部分反映了女性地位真實的提升，並且人們也更有可能願意投給她們。

Alas, it also represents a certain amount of gaming the system, particularly by authoritarian regimes.

但它也代表了一些獨裁政權的操弄手段。

Rwanda, for example, has a majority female parliament which sounds great until you realize that the parliament has no power whatsoever, and the president is very much male.

舉例來說，盧安達的國會幾乎由女性所組成，那聽起來好像很棒，直到你才發現他們的國會基本上沒什麼實權，總統也清一色是男性。

It might seem like a paradox that even as democracy retreats around the world, political participation has gone up.

這看起來或許很矛盾，全球民主在倒退的同時，政治參與卻在提升。

But it's not, it's a reaction against the fact that more and more people are aware that they are in danger of losing some of their democratic freedoms and they're not prepared to take that lying down.

但其實並非如此，這是人們在意識到有可能喪失民主自由所做出的反應，人民可不打算輕易屈服。

They're getting out there, they're voting more, they're organizing online, and sometimes they're demonstrating in the streets.

他們出來參與、更踴躍投票、在線上組織，有時候甚至上街示威。

4. Elections to watch in 2019.

4. 2019 年值得關注的選舉。

The biggest election in 2019 will be in India.

2019 年最大的選舉會是在印度。

As always it will be the biggest election held anywhere ever.

和往常一樣，它將會是全球最大型的選舉。

The fact that we don't know who's going to win–maybe the incumbent party, maybe the opposition–gives you a sense that it really will represent, roughly, the will of a billion people.

我們不知道誰會勝利，可能是現在的執政黨，也可能是在野黨，有預感它將會代表近 10 億人的意見。

Another big one to watch is Nigeria.

另一場大選舉是在奈及利亞。

That will be incredibly corrupt, and quite a few people will get killed, but it's worth remembering that a couple decades ago Nigeria was a dictatorship.

將會有很多的貪污，許多人會因此被殺，但要記得就在幾年前，奈及利亞還是個獨裁政權。

That's not true anymore, and despite the absence of a dictator, Nigeria has held together despite all predictions.

現在不再是了，而即使不再有獨裁者，奈及利亞排除眾人猜測，維持了國家的完整。

It's another fine example, in fact, of how democracy does have the ability to hold disparate countries together because it reflects the will of the actual voters.

這事實上是另一個很好的例子，顯示出民主如何連結起不同的國家，因為它能夠反映民意。

And a final big election to watch is for the European Parliament.

最後一場可看的選舉是歐洲議會。

And here we don't even know which countries are gonna participate, so we don't know whether Britain's gonna be part of it or not.

我們甚至還不知道那些國家會參與，所以我們也不知道英國是否會是一員。

So, all eyes are gonna be watching, will the European Union hold together, will the rise of the populists and the nationalists continue?

所以，所有的目光都會關注，歐盟會繼續維持呢？還是民粹主義者和國家主義者將持續下去？

And my guess is that, actually, they've peaked and this could be the start of their retreat.

我的猜測是，他們其實已經到達勢力的巔峰，這場選舉將會是他們開始衰退的時候。