It was my first year as an atmospheric science professor

那是我當大氣科學教授的第一年，

at Texas Tech University.

地點是德州理工大學。

We had just moved to Lubbock, Texas,

我們剛剛搬到德州拉伯克市，

which had recently been named the second most conservative city

這個地方最近才被列為

in the entire United States.

全美第二保守的城市。

A colleague asked me to guest teach his undergraduate geology class.

有位同事請我去客座 他在大學部開的地質課，

I said, "Sure."

我說：「好啊！」

But when I showed up, the lecture hall was cavernous and dark.

可是我去上課的時候， 整座講堂空空落落又黑又暗。

As I tracked the history of the carbon cycle

當我說明碳循環歷史時，

through geologic time to present day,

從地質時間講到現在，

most of the students were slumped over, dozing or looking at their phones.

大多數學生都無精打采、 打瞌睡或看他們的手機。

I ended my talk with a hopeful request for any questions.

最後我結束講課，

And one hand shot up right away.

滿懷希望的問大家有沒有問題。

I looked encouraging, he stood up, and in a loud voice, he said,

馬上就有一隻手舉起來。

"You're a democrat, aren't you?"

我大受鼓勵，他站起來，

(Laughter)

用很大的聲音說：

"No," I said, "I'm Canadian."

「你是民主黨人，對吧？」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

「不，」我說，「我是加拿大人。」

That was my baptism by fire

（笑聲）

into what has now become a sad fact of life here in the United States

（鼓掌）

and increasingly across Canada as well.

這是我第一次痛苦地經歷到

The fact that the number one predictor

目前正在美國成形的 一個悲哀的事實，

of whether we agree that climate is changing,

這在加拿大也逐漸成形。

humans are responsible

頭號預測因子

and the impacts are increasingly serious and even dangerous,

即是看我們是否同意氣候正在變遷、

has nothing to do with how much we know about science or even how smart we are

人類要負責任，

but simply where we fall on the political spectrum.

及其衝擊正逐漸變嚴重甚至危險，

Does the thermometer give us a different answer

這個事實與我們對科學的了解， 甚至我們有多聰明一點關係都沒有，

depending on if we're liberal or conservative?

而是完全關乎於 我們在政治上選哪邊站。

Of course not.

溫度計會因為我們是

But if that thermometer tells us that the planet is warming,

自由派還是保守派， 就給我們不同的讀值嗎？

that humans are responsible

當然不會。

and that to fix this thing,

但是如果那個溫度計告訴我們

we have to wean ourselves off fossil fuels as soon as possible --

地球正在暖化，人類需要負責，

well, some people would rather cut off their arm

而且要解決這件事，

than give the government any further excuse

我們必須盡快 戒斷對石化燃料的依賴──

to disrupt their comfortable lives and tell them what to do.

有些人寧可砍斷自己的手臂，

But saying, "Yes, it's a real problem, but I don't want to fix it,"

也不要給政府任何更進一步的藉口

that makes us the bad guy, and nobody wants to be the bad guy.

來攪亂他們舒適的生活， 並告訴他們應該怎麼做。

So instead, we use arguments like, "It's just a natural cycle."

但是說「是的， 這是一個真正的問題，

"It's the sun."

但是我不想解決它，」

Or my favorite,

讓我們變成壞人。沒有人想當壞人。

"Those climate scientists are just in it for the money."

所以我們就這麼爭論： 「這只是個自然的循環。」

(Laughter)

「這是太陽的關係。」

I get that at least once a week.

或是我最喜歡的一個：

But these are just sciencey-sounding smoke screens,

「那些氣候科學家只是為了要賺錢。」

that are designed to hide the real reason for our objections,

（笑聲）

which have nothing to do with the science

我一星期至少會聽到一次。

and everything to do with our ideology and our identity.

但是這些都是 似是而非的科學煙霧彈，

So when we turn on the TV these days,

設計來隱藏我們反對的真正理由，

it seems like pundit X is saying,

這個理由跟科學一點關係都沒有，

"It's cold outside. Where is global warming now?"

而是跟我們的意識形態及身分有關。

And politician Y is saying,

所以這幾天當我們打開電視，

"For every scientist who says this thing is real,

都好像有某某名嘴在說：

I can find one who says it isn't."

「外面好冷。哪裡有全球暖化？」

So it's no surprise that sometimes we feel like everybody is saying these myths.

又有某某政治人物說：

But when we look at the data --

「你每找出一個科學家說這是真的，

and the Yale Program on Climate [Change] Communication

我都可以找出另外一個說 這不是真的。」

has done public opinion polling across the country now for a number of years --

所以這一點都不意外，

the data shows that actually 70 percent of people in the United States agree

就是有時候我們覺得 好像每個人都在說這些迷思。

that the climate is changing.

但是當我們看數據──

And 70 percent also agree that it will harm plants and animals,

耶魯大學氣候變遷溝通計畫

and it will harm future generations.

已經對全國做民調好幾年了──

But then when we dig down a bit deeper, the rubber starts to hit the road.

他們的數據顯示 其實有 70% 的美國人同意

Only about 60 percent of people think it will affect people in the United States.

氣候正在變遷。

Only 40 percent of people think it will affect us personally.

70% 也同意它會傷害動植物，

And then when you ask people, "Do you ever talk about this?"

會傷害未來的世代。

two-thirds of people in the entire United States say, "Never."

但是當我們挖深一點， 真相就會顯露。

And even worse, when you say, "Do you hear the media talk about this?"

只有 60% 的人認為 它會影響美國人。

Over three-quarters of people say no.

只有 40% 的人認為 它會影響個人。

So it's a vicious cycle.

而當你問大家： 「你曾經討論過這個問題嗎？」

The planet warms.

全美三分之二的人說：「不曾。」

Heat waves get stronger.

更糟的是，當你問： 「你是否聽過媒體討論過這個？」

Heavy precipitation gets more frequent.

超過四分之三的人說沒有。

Hurricanes get more intense.

所以這是個惡性循環。

Scientists release yet another doom-filled report.

地球變暖。

Politicians push back even more strongly,

熱浪變強。

repeating the same sciencey-sounding myths.

豪雨更頻繁。

What can we do to break this vicious cycle?

颶風更強勁。

The number one thing we can do is the exact thing that we're not doing:

科學家又發佈了一份 極不樂觀的報告。

talk about it.

政客的反擊更加強烈，

But you might say, "I'm not a scientist.

不斷重複說著似是而非的科學迷思。

How am I supposed to talk about radiative forcing

我們要怎麼做 才能打破這種惡性循環？

or cloud parametrization in climate models?"

我們能做的第一件事， 就是我們沒有做的事：

We don't need to be talking about more science;

談論它。

we've been talking about the science for over 150 years.

可是你或許會說：

Did you know that it's been 150 years or more since the 1850s,

「我又不是科學家 我要怎麼談論輻射效應，

when climate scientists first discovered

或氣候模式裡的雲參數化？」

that digging up and burning coal and gas and oil

我們不需要再多談科學；

is producing heat-trapping gases

過去 150 年我們談了很多科學。

that is wrapping an extra blanket around the planet?

你們知道這個題目 已經超過 150 年了嗎？

That's how long we've known.

自 1850 年代起 氣候科學家就首次發現，

It's been 50 years since scientists first formally warned a US president

挖出及燃燒煤、瓦斯及石油

of the dangers of a changing climate,

會產生吸熱氣體，

and that president was Lyndon B. Johnson.

在地球周圍多包一圈毯子。

And what's more, the social science has taught us

我們已經知道那麼久了。

that if people have built their identity on rejecting a certain set of facts,

從科學家首次正式警告美國總統

then arguing over those facts is a personal attack.

氣候改變的危險性， 已經過了 50 年。

It causes them to dig in deeper,

那位總統就是林登·詹森。

and it digs a trench, rather than building a bridge.

更重要的是， 社會科學已經教導我們，

So if we aren't supposed to talk about more science,

如果我們以拒絕某些事實 來建立我們的身分，

or if we don't need to talk about more science,

那麼爭論這些事實就是人身攻擊。

then what should we be talking about?

這會讓他們挖一條深深的壕溝，

The most important thing to do is,

而不是造一座橋。

instead of starting up with your head, with all the data and facts in our head,

所以如果我們不應該談更多的科學，

to start from the heart,

或說如果我們不需要談更多的科學，

to start by talking about why it matters to us,

那我們應該談什麼？

to begin with genuinely shared values.

最重要的是，

Are we both parents?

與其從你充滿數據及事實的腦開始，

Do we live in the same community?

不如從心開始，

Do we enjoy the same outdoor activities: hiking, biking, fishing, even hunting?

從討論這為什麼對我們很重要開始，

Do we care about the economy or national security?

從我們都真心共享的價值觀開始。

For me, one of the most foundational ways I found to connect with people

我們都為人父母嗎？

is through my faith.

我們都住在同一個社區？

As a Christian, I believe that God created this incredible planet that we live on

我們都喜歡一樣的戶外活動：

and gave us responsibility over every living thing on it.

健行、騎車、釣魚，甚至打獵？

And I furthermore believe that we are to care for and love

我們都關心經濟或國家安全？

the least fortunate among us,

對我而言，我發現能與人 建立關係最基本的方法，

those who are already suffering the impacts of poverty,

就是透過我的信仰。

hunger, disease and more.

我身為基督徒，

If you don't know what the values are that someone has,

相信神創造了這個 極美好的星球讓我們居住，

have a conversation, get to know them, figure out what makes them tick.

也給了我們責任要管理其上的萬物。

And then once we have,

我更相信我們要照顧及愛護

all we have to do is connect the dots between the values they already have

我們之中不幸的人──

and why they would care about a changing climate.

那些已經飽受貧窮、

I truly believe, after thousands of conversations that I've had

飢餓、疾病和其它不幸之苦的人。

over the past decade and more,

如果你不知道某人的價值觀，

that just about every single person in the world

就與他們談天，了解他們，

already has the values they need to care about a changing climate.

找出他們做事的動機，

They just haven't connected the dots.

一旦我們明白了，

And that's what we can do through our conversation with them.

我們要做的， 就是把他們已有的價值觀

The only reason why I care about a changing climate

與他們為什麼應該 要關心氣候變遷連起來。

is because of who I already am.

在過去十多年與人談論過 成千上萬次之後，我真的相信，

I'm a mother, so I care about the future of my child.

幾乎這世界上的每一個人

I live in West Texas, where water is already scarce,

都已經有他們應該關心 氣候變遷的價值觀。

and climate change is impacting the availability of that water.

他們只是還沒有把點連起來。

I'm a Christian, I care about a changing climate

那就是我們跟他們對話 可以做得到的。

because it is, as the military calls it, a "threat multiplier."

我關心氣候變遷的唯一理由，

It takes those issues,

是因為我已有的角色。

like poverty and hunger and disease and lack of access to clean water

我是母親，所以我關心孩子的未來。

and even political crises that lead to refugee crises --

我住在德州西部， 那裡的水資源已經很缺乏，

it takes all of these issues and it exacerbates them,

而氣候變遷會衝擊當地可用的水源。

it makes them worse.

我是基督徒，我關心變遷的氣候，

I'm not a Rotarian.

因為它就像軍方所說的， 是「威脅倍增器。」

But when I gave my first talk at a Rotary Club,

它承擔一些問題，

I walked in and they had this giant banner that had the Four-Way Test on it.

如貧窮、飢餓、疾病、 無法取得乾淨的水，

Is it the truth?

甚至是會導致 難民危機的政治危機──

Absolutely.

這些問題都會因之而發生， 而且還會使問題變本加厲，

Is it fair?

變得更糟。

Heck, no, that's why I care most about climate change,

我不是扶輪社員。

because it is absolutely unfair.

但是我第一次去某個扶輪社演講時，

Those who have contributed the least to the problem

我走進去看到 他們有這個超大的標語，

are bearing the brunt of the impacts.

上面寫著「扶輪四大考驗」。

It went on to ask:

這是否屬實？

Would it be beneficial to all, would it build goodwill?

當然。

Well, to fix it certainly would.

是否公平？

So I took my talk, and I reorganized it into the Four-Way Test,

當然不！那就是我為什麼 這麼關心氣候變遷，

and then I gave it to this group of conservative businesspeople

因為它絕對不公平。

in West Texas.

對此問題貢獻最少的人，

(Laughter)

卻受到最沉重的衝擊。

And I will never forget at the end,

它進一步問：

a local bank owner came up to me with the most bemused look on his face.

這能否兼顧彼此利益？ 能否促進親善友誼？

And he said, "You know, I wasn't sure about this whole global warming thing,

嗯，解決這個問題當然能。

but it passed the Four-Way Test."

所以我把我的演講重新排列一下，

(Laughter)

讓它符合「扶輪四大考驗」，

(Applause)

然後我就對著這群位於德州西部的

These values, though -- they have to be genuine.

保守派商人演講這個主題。

I was giving a talk at a Christian college a number of years ago,

（笑聲）

and after my talk, a fellow scientist came up and he said,

我永遠也忘不了在最後，

"I need some help.

一位地方銀行家滿臉疑惑的走向我。

I've been really trying hard to get my foot in the door

他說：「你知道嗎？ 我不太確定這整個全球暖化的事，

with our local churches,

但是它通過了扶輪四大考驗」。

but I can't seem to get any traction.

（笑聲）

I want to talk to them about why climate change matters."

（掌聲）

So I said, "Well, the best thing to do

不過這些價值觀── 它們必須是真誠的。

is to start with the denomination that you're part of,

幾年前我在一所基督教大學演講，

because you share the most values with those people.

講完之後，有一位同行科學家說：

What type of church do you attend?"

「我需要一些幫助。

"Oh, I don't attend any church, I'm an atheist," he said.

我費了很大的勁打進

(Laughter)

我們當地的教會，

I said, "Well, in that case, starting with a faith community

可是似乎沒什麼作用。

is probably not the best idea.

我想告訴他們 為什麼氣候變遷很重要。」

Let's talk about what you do enjoy doing, what you are involved in."

我說：「我們能做的

And we were able to identify a community group

就是從你所屬的宗會開始，

that he was part of, that he could start with.

因為你跟這些人共享許多價值觀。

The bottom line is, we don't have to be a liberal tree hugger

你上哪個宗派的教會呢？」

to care about a changing climate.

「喔，我不上教會， 我是無神論者。」他說。

All we have to be is a human living on this planet.

（笑聲）

Because no matter where we live,

我說：「這樣的話，從宗教團體開始

climate change is already affecting us today.

大概不是最好的方法。

If we live along the coasts,

我們來看看你最喜歡做什麼， 你參與什麼樣的活動。」

in many places, we're already seeing "sunny-day flooding."

我們就這樣找出了一個 他參與的社團，

If we live in western North America,

他可以從那裡開始。

we're seeing much greater area being burned by wildfires.

我想說的是，

If we live in many coastal locations,

我們不需要當個 自由開放的環保人士，

from the Gulf of Mexico to the South Pacific,

也可以關心變遷的氣候。

we are seeing stronger hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones,

我們要做的就是當一個 活在地球上的人類。

powered by a warming ocean.

因為無論我們住在哪裡，

If we live in Texas or if we live in Syria,

今天氣候變遷已經在影響我們。

we're seeing climate change supersize our droughts,

如果我們住在海岸邊，

making them more frequent and more severe.

在很多地方

Wherever we live, we're already being affected by a changing climate.

我們已經看到「晴天洪災」。

So you might say, "OK, that's good. We can talk impacts.

如果我們住在北美西部，

We can scare the pants off people, because this thing is serious."

我們會看到野火燒掉的面積變大了。

And it is, believe me. I'm a scientist, I know.

如果我們住在沿海地區，

(Laughter)

從墨西哥灣到南太平洋，

But fear is not what is going to motivate us

我們看到更強的颶風、颱風及氣旋

for the long-term, sustained change that we need to fix this thing.

受暖化的海洋而更強勁。

Fear is designed to help us run away from the bear.

如果我們住在德州或敘利亞，

Or just run faster than the person beside us.

我們看到氣候變遷加大了乾旱規模，

(Laughter)

使乾旱更頻繁、更嚴重。

What we need to fix this thing is rational hope.

無論我們住在哪裡，

Yes, we absolutely do need to recognize what's at stake.

我們都已經受到變遷氣候的影響。

Of course we do.

你可能會說：「好吧， 那我們來談衝擊。

But we need a vision of a better future --

我們可以把人家嚇的屁滾尿流，

a future with abundant energy,

因為這東西很嚴重。」

with a stable economy,

它的確很嚴重，相信我。

with resources available to all,

我是科學家，我知道。

where our lives are not worse but better than they are today.

（笑聲）

There are solutions.

但是恐懼不是什麼好方法

And that's why the second important thing that we have to talk about

能激勵人產生長期、持續的改變，

is solutions -- practical, viable, accessible, attractive solutions.

來解決這件事。

Like what?

恐懼是設計來幫助我們逃離熊的。

Well, there's no silver bullet, as they say,

或是跑得比旁邊的人快一點。

but there's plenty of silver buckshot.

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

要解決這個問題， 我們需要的是理性的希望。

There's simple solutions that save us money