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  • Three people are at a dinner party.

    三個人在一個晚宴上。

  • Paul, who's married, is looking at Linda.

    已經結婚的保羅,正看著琳達。

  • Meanwhile, Linda is looking at John, who's not married.

    與此同時,琳達正看著約翰,他還沒有結婚。

  • Is someone who's married looking at someone who's not married?

    結了婚的人是不是看上了沒結婚的人?

  • Take a moment to think about it.

    花點時間想一想。

  • Most people answer that there's not enough information to tell.

    大多數人的回答是,信息量不夠,無法判斷。

  • And most people are wrong.

    而大多數人都錯了。

  • Linda must be either married or not marriedthere are no other options.

    琳達必須要麼結婚要麼不結婚--沒有其他選擇。

  • So in either scenario, someone married is looking at someone who's not married.

    所以無論哪種情況,結婚的人都是看上了沒結婚的人。

  • When presented with the explanation, most people change their minds

    當得到解釋時,大多數人都會改變主意。

  • and accept the correct answer,

    並接受正確答案。

  • despite being very confident in their first responses.

    儘管他們對自己的第一次回答非常自信。

  • Now let's look at another case.

    現在我們再來看另一個案例。

  • A 2005 study by Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler

    2005年Brendan Nyhan和Jason Reifler的一項研究。

  • examined American attitudes regarding the justifications for the Iraq War.

    研究了美國人對伊拉克戰爭理由的態度。

  • Researchers presented participants with a news article

    研究人員向參與者展示了一篇新聞文章

  • that showed no weapons of mass destruction had been found.

    顯示沒有發現大規模毀滅性武器。

  • Yet many participants not only continued to believe that WMDs had been found,

    然而,許多與會者不僅繼續認為已經發現了大規模毀滅性武器。

  • but they even became more convinced of their original views.

    但他們甚至更加堅信自己原來的觀點。

  • So why do arguments change people's minds in some cases and backfire in others?

    那麼,為什麼有些情況下,爭論會改變人們的想法,而有些情況下卻會適得其反呢?

  • Arguments are more convincing when they rest on a good knowledge of the audience,

    爭論建立在對聽眾有充分了解的基礎上,才更有說服力。

  • taking into account what the audience believes,

    考慮到觀眾的看法。

  • who they trust,

    他們信任誰。

  • and what they value.

    以及他們所看重的東西。

  • Mathematical and logical arguments like the dinner party brainteaser work

    數理邏輯論證,如晚宴腦筋急轉彎的工作原理

  • because even when people reach different conclusions,

    因為即使人們得出不同的結論。

  • they're starting from the same set of shared beliefs.

    他們從同一套共同的信念出發。

  • In 1931, a young, unknown mathematician named Kurtdel presented a proof

    1931年,一個年輕的、不知名的數學家庫爾特-哥德爾提出了一個證明。

  • that a logically complete system of mathematics was impossible.

    一個邏輯上完整的數學體系是不可能的。

  • Despite upending decades of work by brilliant mathematicians

    儘管顛覆了傑出數學家幾十年來的研究成果

  • like Bertrand Russell and David Hilbert,

    如伯特蘭-羅素和大衛-希爾伯特。

  • the proof was accepted

    證據確鑿

  • because it relied on axioms that everyone in the field already agreed on.

    因為它所依賴的公理是該領域的所有人都已經同意的。

  • Of course, many disagreements involve different beliefs

    當然,很多分歧涉及到不同的信仰

  • that can't simply be reconciled through logic.

    不能簡單地通過邏輯來調和。

  • When these beliefs involve outside information,

    當這些信念涉及外部資訊時。

  • the issue often comes down to what sources and authorities people trust.

    這個問題往往歸結於人們信任什麼來源和權威。

  • One study asked people to estimate several statistics

    有一項研究要求人們估計幾個統計數據

  • related to the scope of climate change.

    與氣候變化的範圍有關;

  • Participants were asked questions,

    與會者被問到了一些問題。

  • such ashow many of the years between 1995 and 2006

    如 "在1995年至2006年期間,有多少年是這樣的

  • were one of the hottest 12 years since 1850?”

    是1850年以來最熱的12年之一?"

  • After providing their answers,

    在提供了他們的答案之後。

  • they were presented with data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

    他們收到了政府間氣候變化專門委員會的數據。

  • in this case showing that the answer was 11 of the 12 years.

    在本案中顯示,答案是12年中的11年。

  • Being provided with these reliable statistics from a trusted official source

    從值得信賴的官方來源獲得了這些可靠的統計數據

  • made people more likely to accept the reality that the earth is warming.

    使人們更容易接受地球變暖的現實。

  • Finally, for disagreements that can't be definitively settled

    最後,對於不能明確解決的分歧問題。

  • with statistics or evidence,

    有統計數據或證據;

  • making a convincing argument

    說服力

  • may depend on engaging the audience's values.

    可能取決於是否能吸引閱聽人的價值觀。

  • For example, researchers have conducted a number of studies

    例如,研究人員進行了一些研究

  • where they've asked people of different political backgrounds

    在那裡,他們問不同政治背景的人。

  • to rank their values.

    以對其價值進行排序。

  • Liberals in these studies, on average, rank fairness

    在這些研究中,自由主義者平均將公平性排在

  • here meaning whether everyone is treated in the same wayabove loyalty.

    這裡的意思是大家是否受到同樣的待遇--高於忠誠。

  • In later studies, researchers attempted to convince liberals

    在後來的研究中,研究人員試圖說服自由主義者

  • to support military spending with a variety of arguments.

    以各種理由支持軍費。

  • Arguments based on fairness

    基於公平性的論點----

  • like that the military provides employment

    像軍隊提供就業

  • and education to people from disadvantaged backgrounds

    弱勢背景的人接受教育的機會----

  • were more convincing than arguments based on loyalty

    比基於忠誠的論點更有說服力。

  • such as that the military unifies a nation.

    如:軍隊統一了一個國家。

  • These three elements

    這三個要素--

  • beliefs, trusted sources, and values

    信念、可信的來源和價值觀

  • may seem like a simple formula for finding agreement and consensus.

    這似乎是一個尋找協議和共識的簡單公式。

  • The problem is that our initial inclination is to think of arguments

    問題是,我們最初的傾向是認為論點

  • that rely on our own beliefs, trusted sources, and values.

    依靠我們自己的信念、可信的來源和價值觀。

  • And even when we don't,

    即使我們不這樣做。

  • it can be challenging to correctly identify what's held dear

    辨別真偽是個難題

  • by people who don't already agree with us.

    被那些還不認同我們的人。

  • The best way to find out is simply to talk to them.

    最好的方法就是簡單地與他們交談。

  • In the course of discussion,

    在討論過程中。

  • you'll be exposed to counter-arguments and rebuttals.

    你會接觸到反駁和反駁。

  • These can help you make your own arguments and reasoning more convincing

    這些可以幫助你使自己的論點和推理更有說服力。

  • and sometimes, you may even end up being the one changing your mind.

    有時,你甚至可能最終成為改變主意的人。

Three people are at a dinner party.

三個人在一個晚宴上。

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED-Ed 研究 琳達 論點 信念 來源

【TED-Ed】如何改變別人的想法? (暗示:事實並不總是足夠) - 雨果梅西耶 (How can you change someone's mind? (hint: facts aren't always enough) - Hugo Mercier)

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    卓子鈞 發佈於 2018 年 07 月 27 日
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