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  • If the US or North Korea had a Facebook page, each country would change their status to

    假如美國或北韓有臉書的話,這兩個國家的動態關係應該會改為

  • it's complicatednow.

    「一言難盡」

  • It's not what we had as recently as 2017 when Trump was threatening to go to war over and

    最近兩國的關係不再是川普在 2017 年時不斷威脅要和北韓

  • over again with North Korea.

    開戰的論述

  • They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.

    他們會短兵相接,戰爭規模將是史上從未見過的

  • Now they are not only on speaking terms but literally sitting in a room with each other.

    結果現在兩國不僅開啟對話,甚至一起坐在會議室內

  • We will have a terrific relationship.

    我們的關係將處於極佳狀態

  • I have no doubt.

    絕對是毫無疑問

  • Chairman Kim and I just signed a joint statement in which he reaffirmed his unwavering commitment

    金正恩主席和我剛簽署共同宣言,金主席再次堅持他的承諾

  • to complete denuclearization.

    一定會全面去核化

  • The problem with this is that Trump and North Korea have very different views about what

    但癥結點在於川普和北韓有著迴異的觀點

  • should be accomplished when you denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

    對於朝鮮半島去核化的方式時程皆有不同看法

  • The US wants North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

    美國想要北韓放棄核武

  • North Korea wants the United States to stop isolating it diplomatically and stop cutting

    北韓想要美國停止孤立外交與

  • it off from international markets.

    國際經濟市場

  • In theory, there is the makings of a deal there.

    理論上,這是談判交易內容

  • For Trump, denuclearization means something called CVID: complete, verifiable, irreversible

    對於川普而言,去核化表示 CVID,也就是「全面、可查證的、不可逆的去核」

  • denuclearization of North Korea.

    朝鮮半島必需實現無核化

  • They give up their nuclear weapons and the US will always be able to make sure that they

    北韓會放棄核武,而美國也會持續確保

  • have gone away.

    核武全部被銷毀

  • However, for North Korea, denuclearization of the Korean peninsula mean something completely

    然而,對於北韓來說,朝鮮半島去核化表示

  • different.

    完全不同的意義

  • It means, sure, North Korea gets rid of its nukes, but the US also withdrawals all its troops

    北韓當然會銷毀核武,但是美國也必須從朝鮮半島撤回

  • from the Korean Peninsula and ends its alliance with South Korea.

    所有美軍部隊,並且結束和南韓的同盟關係

  • This has been unacceptable to every American president in the past.

    過去的每任美國總統皆不能接受這種協議

  • We will be stopping the war games, which will save us a tremendous amount of money, unless

    我們會結束戰爭競賽,這將為我們省下鉅大金額

  • and until we see that the future negotiation is not going along like it should.

    除非未來的談判無法如我們當初預期所發展

  • What seems really good for North Korea is really bad by American standards.

    對於北韓極有利的條件卻對美國的停戰標準產生不利的發展

  • There's just not a great middle ground that could actually roll back North Korea's nuclear

    目前為止仍不能找到阻止北韓發展核武的

  • program.

    平衡點

  • No country with a nuclear program as advanced as North Korea's has ever denuclearized.

    如果能像北韓擁有先進的核武發展計畫的國家,沒有一個會想要去核

  • A 2017 estimate from the Defense Intelligence Agency concluded that North Korea probably

    2017 年美國國防情報局調查報告指出,北韓大約

  • has up to 60 nuclear weapons.

    擁有最多 60 個核子武器

  • It also has ballistic missiles that could potentially hit the American homeland and potentially

    北韓亦持有可以摧毀全美國的彈道導彈以及一個小型

  • a nuclear weapon small enough to fit on one of those rockets.

    核子武器,其潛在威脅在於小到可以裝入其中一個火箭裝置

  • National security adviser John Bolton floated an idea for dealing with North Korea that

    美國國安顧問波頓向美國提出和北韓的談判建議

  • he called,

    他稱之為

  • the Libya model.

    利比亞模式

  • So this is to reference an agreement struck with the Bush administration by then Libyan

    該模式是布希政府與利比亞簽署的協議

  • dictator Muammar Qaddafi to give up his nuclear program.

    要求當時利比亞獨裁者格達費放棄發展核武計畫

  • However, Qaddafi's program was way more limited.

    然而,格達費的核武計畫才在萌芽階段

  • He wasn't really even close to a bomb.

    他甚至尚未發展出核彈

  • And, perhaps more to the point, about eight years after this agreement was struck in 2011

    況且,更重要的原因在於該協議實施 8 年後的 2011 年

  • the US backed an uprising against Qaddafi which killed him.

    美國支持反叛軍推翻格達費,並導致其死亡

  • To Kim, Libya is an example of what happens if you trust the United States too much.

    這對於金正恩來說,利比亞模式是血淋淋的例子,警告你不能太相信美國

  • It's an example of what happens if you give up your nuclear weapons.

    也是一個例子告訴你如果放棄核武,會有甚麼後果

  • The main reason they want them is to deter an attack.

    主要原因是他們想要阻止發動攻擊

  • Ideally, they want to deter any war from starting by making the war seem really scary and really

    理想狀態是,他們想要阻止開啟戰爭,所以先讓戰爭看起來很可怕

  • dangerous and really bloody.

    非常危險而且極度血腥

  • Normalizing relations is something that I would expect to do, I would hope to do, when

    關係正常化是我所期盼且衷心希望的

  • everything is complete.

    只要所有因素皆完備

  • Normalization is a prize from North Korea's point of view.

    對北韓來說,關係正常化便代表勝利

  • It would mean a US embassy in Pyongyang, a North Korean embassy in Washington, ambassadors,

    意味著美國使館入駐平壤、北韓使館進駐華盛頓,有著大使

  • formal diplomatic receptions.

    和正式的外交接待

  • And like I'm saying this and you're probably imagining that sounds ridiculous and you're

    當我在說這些話的時候,你可能覺得很荒謬,不過

  • right.

    你是對的

  • Because it's North Korea.

    因為我們說的可是北韓哪

  • Unwavering commitment to the complete denuclearization

    堅持實現全面去核化的承諾

  • of the Korean peninsula. This is the document

    而且是在朝鮮半島上,這便是我們剛簽署的

  • that we just signed.

    協議文件

  • It's hard to imagine the endgame being some kind of big big deal.

    很難想像最後賽局會是這麼大規模的談判

  • What's more likely is nothing changes or things get worse again.

    比較有可能的結局應該是甚麼都沒改變,甚至更可能再度惡化

  • I think he's going to do these things.

    我認為他會做出這些事情

  • I may be wrong.

    我也有可能猜錯

  • I mean I may stand before you in 6 months and say, 'Hey, I was wrong.'

    我的意思是 6 個月後我可能會站在你們面前並對大家說:「我搞錯囉!」

  • I don't know that I'll ever admit that, but I'll find some kind of an excuse.

    雖然我不知道我會不會承認,但我總會找到推託的理由啦!

If the US or North Korea had a Facebook page, each country would change their status to

假如美國或北韓有臉書的話,這兩個國家的動態關係應該會改為

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「無核化」是什麼意思?(What does “denuclearization” mean?)

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    Samuel 發佈於 2018 年 11 月 24 日
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