Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The world is, in many ways, organized in a nested system.

這個世界，在很多方面都是以嵌套的方式組織起來的。

And so we have nations,

所以我們有了國家。

within those we have industries;

在這些我們有產業。

within industries we have corporations;

在產業內部，我們有企業。

within those we have business units;

在這些裡面我們有業務部門。

within those we have teams;

在那些我們有團隊。

within the teams we have people;

在團隊中，我們有了人。

and within people we have our brains.

而在人體內，我們有我們的大腦。

We are nested.

我們是嵌套的。

It turns out that,

原來，。

as I have and my colleagues have tried to understand how business works,

因為我和我的同事們都試圖瞭解商業的運作方式。

we've developed a set of theories.

我們已經形成了一套理論。

And when I say a theory, what I mean is a statement of causality,

而我說的理論，是指對因果關係的陳述。

an understanding of what causes what and why.

瞭解什麼原因和為什麼；

Some of you know some of the theories. Disruption is a theory.

你們中的一些人知道一些理論。破壞是一種理論。

What it asserts is that the mechanism that causes successful companies to fall,

它所主張的是，導致成功公司倒下的機制。

it's not that they're not at their work,

並不是說他們不在自己的工作崗位上。

but rather somebody comes in at the bottom of the market and moves up.

而是有人在市場底部進來，然後往上走。

And it's that the mechanism, the pursue of profit from at the bottom of the market

而就是這種機制，從市場底層追求利潤。

that makes success so hard to sustain.

使得成功難以為繼。

There's another theory,

還有另一種理論。

called the theory of the preservation of modularity.

稱為模塊化保存理論。

The theory of the preservation of modularity

維護模塊化的理論

explains among the other things why the euro doesn't work

解釋了為什麼歐元不能使用的原因。

and why SAP implementation systems

以及為什麼SAP實施系統

are so difficult and complicated.

是如此困難和複雜。

There's another theory called jobs-to-be-done,

還有另一種理論叫待完成的工作。

and what it asserts is that, you know, here's Clay;

而它所宣稱的是，你知道，這裡是Clay;

I have characteristics: I'm unfortunately 60 years old now,

我有特點。不幸的是，我現在已經60歲了。

I live in the suburbs, five children,

我住在郊區，五個孩子。

and unfortunately, have all left and are living independently,

而不幸的是，已經全部離開，獨立生活。

and life has become boring.

而生活也變得枯燥無味。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

But the fact that I have those characteristics

但事實上，我有這些特點

doesn't cause me to go out and buy The New York Times.

不會讓我出去買《紐約時報》。

There might be a correlation between my characteristics

我的特點可能和我的特點有關係

and the propensity to buy The New York Times,

和購買《紐約時報》的傾向。

but the characteristics don't cause me to do anything.

但這些特點並沒有讓我做什麼。

What causes us to do something

是什麼原因讓我們做了一些事情

is there's a job that arises in our life and we have to get the job done,

就是在我們的生活中出現了一個工作，我們要把這個工作做好。

and what causes us to buy a product or service

是什麼原因讓我們購買產品或服務？

is we have to reach out and find something

是我們必須伸出手，找到的東西

that can do the job and pull it into our lives.

可以做的工作，並把它拉進我們的生活。

That's the causal mechanism behind a purchase,

這就是購買背後的因果機制。

is understanding what's the job,

是明白什麼是工作。

and the insight there is that the customer is the wrong unit of analysis,

而其中的啟示是，客戶是錯誤的分析組織、部門。

it's the job that we need to understand.

這是我們需要了解的工作。

So these are all theories,

所以這些都是理論。

and some of you know those, and a number of others from our research.

你們中的一些人知道這些，還有其他一些我們的研究。

What we have learned, and inadvertently in many ways,

我們學到了什麼，在很多方面都是不經意的。

is that these statements of causality

是這些因果關係的陳述

apply at every stage in this nested system,

在這個嵌套系統的每個階段都適用。

and so, the theories help us understand

所以，這些理論有助於我們理解

why nations lose their competitiveness,

國家為什麼會失去競爭力。

why Japan was so successful and then died, for example;

比如說，日本為什麼這麼成功，然後就死了。

and why America finds it so hard to regain our momentum;

以及為什麼美國發現它如此難以恢復我們的勢頭。

- and that goes all the way down to the point of teams -

- 而這一切都要歸結到團隊的點上------------------------------------------------------------------。

a number of years ago, in my course at the Harvard Business School.

幾年前，我在哈佛商學院的課程中。

In this course, we study these theories,

在本課程中，我們學習這些理論。

try to understand them,

試著去理解他們。

then put these theories on a set of lenses

然後把這些理論放在一組鏡頭上。

and examine companies, or economies, or industries

審視企業，或經濟，或行業

and try to understand

揣摩

can we understand why things are happening the way they are happening,

我們能否理解為什麼事情會以這種方式發生。

and what actions would lead to what results.

以及什麼行動會導致什麼結果，

At the end of the course, on the last day,

在課程結束時，在最後一天。

rather than asking them

而不是問他們

to just put on these lenses and examine yet another company,

就戴上這些鏡片，再考察另一家公司。

I asked them to look in the mirror,

我讓他們照鏡子。

and ask them,

並問他們。

"Can you explain why your life is the way it is today

"你能解釋一下為什麼你的生活會變成今天這個樣子嗎？

because of these theories?",

因為這些理論？"。

and "Can you predict what will happen in your life

和 "你能預測到你的生活中會發生什麼嗎?

if you continue to do what you are now doing?"

如果你繼續做你現在所做的事？"

And it's been a remarkable experience

這是一次非凡的經歷

to see the students come back on the last day of class

看到學生們在最後一天的課堂上歸來。

and with causal theories as the explanation,

並以因果理論作為解釋。

what they need to change in their lives

他們在生活中需要改變的地方

so that their life will be the life that they hoped to live.

使他們的生活成為他們所希望的生活。

And I thought, I just offer a couple of these

我想，我只是提供了一對夫婦這些

in the hopes that as entrepreneurs

希望作為企業家

and ambitious people

雄才大略

you end up living the life that you hope you will live.

你最終會過上你所希望的生活。

So one of the things we observed, as I mentioned,

所以我們觀察到的一件事，正如我提到的。

is that what kills successful companies

難道這就是成功公司的殺手鐗

is somebody comes in at the bottom of the market.

是有人在市場底部進來的。

So if you go back a few years ago in telecommunications,

所以，如果你回到幾年前的電信。

the Darwins of the industry were Lucent and Nortel,

行業的達人是朗訊和北電。

made circuit switching technology,

使電路開關技術。

and this rusty, little or small company

而這個生疏的小公司

not very consequential called Cisco emerged.

不是很有後果的叫思科出現了。

And their technology, the router, wasn't good enough to be used in voice,

而他們的技術，路由器也不夠好，不能用在語音上。

but they deployed it at the bottom of the market with data,

但他們在市場底部用數據進行部署。

and then went up market, and ultimately, killed Lucent and Nortel.

然後再上市場，最終，幹掉了朗訊和北電。

The reason why is that when they look down at the router,

原因是，當他們低頭看路由器時。

the router on every dimension wasn't as good.

每個維度上的路由器都沒有那麼好。

So they kept making better and better

所以他們不斷地製造更好的東西

circuit switch devices.

電路開關設備。

And we ask ourselves,

而我們問自己。

"I wonder who decided at Lucent

"不知道在朗訊是誰決定

that they should go out and get killed?"

讓他們出去送死？"

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

"And when was the date on which they decided they would get killed?"

"那他們決定被殺的日期是什麼時候呢？"

And the answer, of course, is that nobody made the decision.

而答案當然是，沒有人做決定。

In fact, what happened is all the individual people

其實，發生了什麼事，都是個別的人。

in a very successful organization did everything right,

在一個非常成功的組織中做了一切正確的事情。

but because they did all of these things independently

但因為他們是獨立完成這些事情的

and what made sense in those circumstances,

以及在這些情況下的合理性。

when it summed up, it summed up to disaster.

當它總結的時候，它總結的是災難。

The reason why it sums up to disaster

之所以總結出災難的原因

is they're trying to maximize their profitability

是他們試圖最大限度地提高他們的盈利能力。

and typically, the way you calculate profitability:

而通常情況下，你計算利潤的方式。

tomorrow's investments that pay off tomorrow

明日黃花

go to the bottom line

追根究底

and are much more tangible than investment that pay off ten years from now.

而且比十年後才有回報的投資要實在得多。

When I go back to my graduating classes,

當我回到我的畢業班。

I graduated from the MBA program at Harvard in 1979,

我1979年畢業於哈佛大學的MBA課程。

we have a reunion every five years.

我們每五年都會有一次聚會。

When we came back for a fifth reunion, man, everybody was happy;

當我們回來參加第五次聚會時，夥計，每個人都很高興。

most of our classmates had married

我們的同學大多已經結婚

people who are much better looking than my classmates

帥哥美女

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

they're doing well in their career,

他們在事業上做得很好。

but as we hit the tenth, the 15th, 20th, and then the 25th anniversaries,

但當我們遇到10週年，15週年，20週年，然後是25週年。

oh my gosh, my friends were coming back

哦，我的天哪，我的朋友們都回來了。

not happy with their lives.

不滿意自己的生活。

And very many of them have gotten divorced,

而且非常多的人都離婚了。

and their spouses had remarried, and they were raising

和他們的配偶已經再婚，他們正在養育。

their - my classmates' - children on the other side of the country

他們的--我的同學的--孩子們在國家的另一邊。

alienated from them.

與他們疏遠了。

I guarantee that none of my classmates

我保證沒有一個同學

ever planned when they graduated from the business school

畢業時的計劃

to go out, and get divorced,

出去，然後離婚。

and have children who hate their guts,

並生下恨鐵不成鋼的孩子。

and are being raised by other [parents],

並由其他[父母]撫養。

and yet, a very large portion of our my classmates

然而，我們的同學中，有很大一部分人

actually implemented a strategy

實行策略

that they never planned to do.

他們從未計劃過的事情。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

It turns out that the reason why they do that

原來他們之所以這麼做

is the very same mechanism and that is that pursuit of achievement.

是非常相同的機制，那就是對成就的追求。

So, we all, everybody here, is driven to achieve,

所以，我們在座的各位，都是有動力去實現的。

and when you have an extra ounce of energy or 30 minutes of time,

當你有額外的能量或30分鐘的時間。

instinctively and unconsciously,

本能地、不自覺地。

you'll allocate it to whatever activities in your life

你會把它分配給你生活中的任何活動。

give you the most immediate evidence of achievement.

給你最直接的成就證據。

And our careers provide that immediate evidence of achievement:

而我們的職業生涯提供了這種直接的成就證據。

we closed a sale, we ship a product,

我們完成了一個銷售，我們運送產品。

we finish a mid-presentation,

我們完成了一箇中的介紹。

we close a deal, we get promoted, we get paid.

我們完成交易，我們得到提升，我們得到報酬。

Our careers provide the most, very tangible, immediate achievement.

我們的職業提供了最多的、非常實在的、直接的成就。

In contrast,

相比之下：

investments in our families don't pay off for a very long time.

我們家庭的投資在很長一段時間內都不會有回報。

In fact, on a day-to-day basis,

事實上，在日常的工作中。

our children misbehave over and over again,

我們的孩子一而再再而三地不守規矩。

and it really it isn't until 20 years down the road you can look at your children

它真的是直到20年後的道路，你可以看到你的孩子們

and be able to put your hands on your hips and say,

並能將手放在臀部說。

"We raised great children."

"我們養育了偉大的孩子。"

But on a day-to-day basis, achievement isn't at hand

但在日常的工作中，成就並不在眼前。

when we invest in relationships

當我們投資於關係

with our family, their children, and our spouses.

與我們的家人、他們的孩子和我們的配偶。

And as a consequence, people like you and I who plan to have a happy life,

也是以，像你我這樣打算過上幸福生活的人。

because our families truly are

因為我們的家庭確實是

the deepest source of happiness in our lives,

是我們生命中最深的幸福源泉。

find that although that's what we want,

發現，雖然這就是我們想要的。

the way we invest our time, and energy, and talents

我們投入時間、精力和才能的方式。

causes us to implement a strategy that we wouldn't at all plan to pursue.

導致我們實施了一個我們根本不會計劃實施的戰略。

And so I wanted to just offer that one;

所以我想只提供這一個。

is something to think about.

是值得思考的問題。

The reason why successful companies fail

成功企業失敗的原因

is they invest in things that provide

是他們投資的東西，提供

the most immediate and tangible evidence of achievement,

最直接、最具體的成就證據。

and the reason why they have such a short time horizon

以及為什麼他們的時間跨度如此之短的原因。

is that they are run by people like you and I.

是他們是由你我這樣的人經營的。

We then apply that very same thinking process

然後，我們應用同樣的思維過程

in our personal lives with sad results.

在我們的個人生活中，結果很悲慘。

Let me just offer another thought that might be useful.

讓我再提出一個可能有用的想法。

I was driving to work a number of years ago early,

幾年前，我早早就開車去上班了。

and when I was on Huron Avenue in Cambridge,

而當我在劍橋的休倫大道上時。

I just had a feeling

我只是有一種感覺

that something important was going to happen to Clay Christensen,

Clay Christensen將有重要的事情發生。

that I was going to be given

我將被賦予

a much more consequential business opportunity

更為重要的商業機會

than I have just as a plain, old professor.

比我作為一個普通的老教授。

A couple of weeks later,

幾周後。

somebody who was in that position announced that he was leaving,

有人在那個位置上宣佈他要離開。

and I put two and two together and decided,

我把兩個和兩個放在一起，決定。

"Gosh! Sounds like, for whatever reason,

"天哪!聽起來，不管什麼原因。

I just had this feeling that I'm going to be his replacement."

我就是有這樣的感覺，我將成為他的替代品。"

So the day came, and they chose another person.

於是這一天到來，他們選擇了另一個人。

I wondered why did I have that feeling

我在想，為什麼我有這種感覺

that an important thing was going to happen to me.

有一件重要的事情要發生在我身上。

Did the people kind of lose guts? Or... I don't know.

人們是不是失去了勇氣？還是...

But I wrestled with

但是，我與之搏鬥

how will they measure Clay Christensen's life?

他們如何衡量Clay Christensen的生命？

If they're going to not make me the leader of a large institution,

如果他們不打算讓我成為一個大機構的上司。

how do I know whether my life has been worth living?

我怎麼知道我的人生是否值得一過？

And again, how I measure my life?

再說說我是如何衡量自己的人生的？

I realized that I studied this for a long time,

我意識到，我研究了很久。

and I reached the strangest conclusion:

我得出了最奇怪的結論。

that God doesn't employ accountants or statisticians.

上帝不會僱用會計師或統計學家。

And what I mean by that is, because you and I have finite minds,

而我的意思是，因為你我的心智都是有限的。

when we try to understand what's going on in the world,

當我們試圖瞭解世界上發生的事情。

we have to aggregate things.

我們要把事情彙總起來。

So in your companies,

所以在你們公司。

you can't keep track of every individual invoice,

你不能跟蹤每一張發票。

and so you have to aggregate all those up,

所以你必須把所有這些彙總起來。

so that you have receivables, and payables, and revenues.

這樣你就有了應收、應付款和收入。

You can't keep track of every element of cost,

你不可能跟蹤成本的每一個要素。

and so you have to aggregate all that up into total cost categories,

所以你必須將所有這些彙總成總成本類別。

and then you subtract that from this, and there's a number,

然後你減去這一點， 有一個數字。

and that's the way we try to understand the world;

這就是我們試圖理解世界的方式。

is because we have limited minds, we have to aggregate things up.

就是因為我們的心智有限，我們要把事情彙總起來。

And then we'll look at that number compared to last year's number,

然後我們再看看這個數字與去年的數字對比。

and if it's better, then we say we're doing better.

如果它的更好，那麼我們說我們做得更好。

That's the way we look at the world because of our but minds.

這就是我們看世界的方式，因為我們的但心。

It has then another interesting effect on us,

那麼它對我們又有一個有趣的影響。

and that is, because we have to aggregate,

那就是，因為我們要彙總。

we get a sense of hierarchy in the world.

我們得到的是世界的等級感。

In other words,

換句話說

people who are higher up in larger organizations

上層人士

are more important

更重要

than people who preside

比主持工作的人

over fewer numbers of people and fewer numbers

人數少，人數少

down the road, down the bottom.

順著路，順著底。

So we tend to this, we get this sense

所以，我們傾向於此，我們得到這種感覺。

that people who achieve in a hierarchical sense,