after long and painful negotiations

還是在漫長又痛苦的協商後成立的

and they've fallen apart before.

而他們也曾分崩離析

So, the first expectation should be nothing will change

所以，第一個會有反應是，沒有任何的改變

because in the past nothing has changed.

因為以過去的經驗來說，並沒有任何改變

If, for some reason, they do reach some sort of

如果，因為某些原因，他們達成某方面

stable peace agreement, then I think we'll see

穩定和平的協議，那麼我想我們將會看到

some reduction of the military assets on both sides.

雙方在軍事軍隊的縮減

You need some pullback of the troops from the border.

他們都會需要把邊界的軍退撤回

The other big thing we'll see is,

而我們會看到的另一件事

and this could be, you know, the real change,

是真實又真正的改變

is a much more back and forth, open travel between North Korea and South Korea.

會是開放南北韓兩邊的人民出入境

Already there are limited abilities for families

現在已經有少數的南韓人

in the South to visit families in the North,

可以到北韓探望家人

but what will be really dramatic is if

不過很奇怪的是

anyone in the North can visit the South, which doesn't happen in a legal sense right now.

目前沒有任何合法的方式可以使北韓人去南韓

What seem kind of minor things,

這些看起來很微不足道的事

allowing people to visit each other,

像是允許雙方人民探望對方

would be a really dramatic change

都可能成為很戲劇性的轉變

and would change the whole dynamic of the Korean peninsula.

也會為整個朝鮮半島帶來改變

The summit highlights that this is mainly

高峰會強調這只是

a North Korean-South Korean thing,

南北韓雙方的問題

but Korea has always had outsiders involved

但韓國總是有局外人來介入

in their internal politics and that's not different here.

他們的內部政治問題，當然這次也不例外

And so, China and the United States

所以，中國與美國

both have their own interests.

都各持其立場

The United States' interest I think is pretty clear.

美國很清楚的表達自身的利益

United States wants denuclearization,

是想要去除核武的威脅

they want North Korea to give up

美國想要北韓

their nuclear weapons completely,

完全的屏棄核武

dismantle them and so that they can't restart it again.

拆除所有的核武，

China also wants denuclearization,

中國也想要去除核武的威脅

so in theory everyone wants the same thing.

所以理論上來說，大家想要的是一樣的

But China also does not want to see North Korea

不過中國同時也不樂見

become too far under the influence of

北韓受到南韓或是

South Korea or the United States because

美國過多的影響

North Korea is a traditional ally of China,

因為北韓是中國一直以來的好盟友

and also it's a buffer state between South Korea and the United States.

也是中國與南韓和美國之間的緩衝

But other than that, China does actually want

除此之外，中國確實也想要

North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons as well.

北韓放棄核武

In a sense, everyone sort of has the same goal.

某方面來說，大家似乎都有同一個目標

It's just China doesn't have the same urgency

只是中國不像

as the United States does because

美國那樣著急

North Korea is not threatening China,

畢竟北韓並沒有威脅中國

it's threatening South Korea and the United States.

而是威脅南韓及美國

When we talk about changing the dynamic on

當我們在談論轉變

the Korean peninsula so that South Korea, North Korea

朝鮮半島的情況，是好讓南韓及北韓的

are more interconnected and become closer to each other,

關係更密切，互動更頻繁

there I think China doesn't fully support

就是因為這點，使中國不完全支持

complete reconciliation.

所謂的全面調停

They're happy to have reduction of tensions

中國當然樂見南北韓減少的緊張的情勢

but they're not happy to have North Korea

但他們同時也不希望北韓

become too close to the other countries.

與其他國家有太密切的關係

It seems crazy to talk about,

談論這件事似乎很瘋狂

given where we were last year,

尤其是我們去年

where we were worried about President Trump

還在擔心川普總統

starting a nuclear war with North Korea.

可能會向北韓發起核武戰爭

But I think that it's true that if somehow,

不過我想這件事是會成真的

North Korea was normalized in the sense that,

如果北韓在某方面開始恢復正常

say they gave up their nuclear weapons

也假設北韓放棄核武

in a verifiable way so that the U.S. was satisfied,

讓美國滿意

and they reached a peace arrangement

還能與北韓達成和平條約

where they normalize relations with South Korea,

甚至與南韓的關係恢復正常

those two steps would be a massive change in international relations,

在國際關係中，這兩點會是很大的改變

changing the dynamic of northeast Asia.

更會改變整個東北亞的情勢

That's worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize.

這如果發生了，絕對值得一個諾貝爾和平獎

Then the only question is who deserves the credit

然後，這裡有個問題是－功勞歸誰？

and if it works out, it'll be everyone.

如果真的發生，那麼幾乎所有人都是大功臣

It'll be China, it'll be United States,

可能是中國，也可能是美國

it'll be North Korea and South Korea most of all.

但最主要的當然還是北韓與南韓

And it would be remarkable if it did.

如果真的能夠和平共處，那就再好不過了

But history tells us that it won't happen.

但是歷史告訴我們這是不會發生的