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  • I have a two-year-old daughter named Naya

    我有個二歲的女兒叫娜亞,

  • who is under the mistaken impression

    她誤以為

  • that this conference is named in honor of her father.

    這場大會取這個名字 是為了向她的父親致敬。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Who am I to contradict my baby girl?

    我是何方神聖, 膽敢駁斥我的寶貝女兒?

  • As many of you know, there's something about becoming a parent

    你們很多人都了解,為人父母後,

  • that concentrates the mind on long-term problems like climate change.

    才會全心關注 像氣候變遷這種長期的問題。

  • It was the birth of my daughter that inspired me

    我就是因為女兒誕生,

  • to launch this climate organization,

    才啟發我發起這個氣候組織,

  • in order to counteract the excessive polarization of this issue

    來對抗這個在美國 已過度兩極化的問題,

  • in the United States,

    並尋找一條能讓保守派向前的道路。

  • and to find a conservative pathway forward.

    沒錯,鄉親父老,共和黨的 氣候變遷解方並非遙不可及,

  • Yes, folks, a Republican climate solution is possible,

    而且你知道嗎?

  • and you know what?

    可能還比其它的更好!

  • It may even be better.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    讓我證明給大家看。

  • Let me try to prove that to you.

    對氣候政策, 我們真正需要的是殺手應用。

  • What we really need is a killer app to climate policy.

    在科技界,殺手應用 是指改變力量超強的應用程式,

  • In the technology world, a killer app is an application so transformative

    能創造出自己的市場,

  • that it creates its own market,

    就像優步。

  • like Uber.

    在氣候變遷世界,

  • In the climate world,

    殺手應用是一種 前景可期的新解方,

  • a killer app is a new solution so promising

    能突破幾乎無法克服的障礙,

  • that it can break through the seemingly insurmountable

    因而進步。

  • barriers to progress.

    這包括心理障礙。

  • These include the psychological barrier.

    倡導氣候變遷的人 長期以來一直鼓勵同胞

  • Climate advocates have long been encouraging their fellow citizens

    在當下做出短暫犧牲,

  • to make short-term sacrifices now

    造福其它國家

  • for benefits that accrue to other people

    未來三、四十年的人民,

  • in other countries 30 or 40 years in the future.

    這哪說得過去? 因為這跟人的本性大相逕庭。

  • It just doesn't fly because it runs contrary to basic human nature.

    另外就是地緣政治障礙。

  • Next is the geopolitical barrier.

    在現行的全球貿易規則下,

  • Under the current rules of global trade,

    各國都有很強的動機要占便宜,

  • countries have a strong incentive to free ride off the emissions reductions

    讓其它國家去減排放量,

  • of other nations,

    卻不加強自己的計畫。

  • instead of strengthening their own programs.

    這是每一個國際氣候協定 都逃不掉的詛咒,

  • This has been the curse

    包括巴黎協議。

  • of every international climate negotiations, including Paris.

    最後,我們還有黨派障礙。

  • Finally, we have the partisan barrier.

    即使是最盡心盡意的國家──

  • Even the most committed countries --

    德國、英國、加拿大──

  • Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada --

    都無法依照規定的 規模和速度減少排放。

  • are nowhere near reducing emissions at the required scale and speed.

    差的遠了。

  • Not even close.

    而黨派之間的氣候鴻溝

  • And the partisan climate divide is far more acute

    在美國這裡更是有過之而無不及。

  • here in the United States.

    我們完全卡住了,

  • We are fundamentally stuck,

    這就是為什麼我們需要 氣候政策的殺手應用

  • and that is why we need a killer app of climate policy

    來突破上述的障礙。

  • to break through each of these barriers.

    我相信美國的氣候進步之路

  • I'm convinced that the road to climate progress in the United States

    必要貫穿共和黨

  • runs through the Republican Party

    及商業界。

  • and the business community.

    所以我發起氣候領導委員會,

  • So in launching the Climate Leadership Council,

    開始嘗試與共和黨的政治大老

  • I started by reaching out to a who's who of Republican elder statesmen

    及商業領袖溝通,

  • and business leaders,

    包括詹姆斯·貝克及喬治·舒茲,

  • including James Baker and George Schultz,

    這兩位倍受尊重的 美國共和黨政治大老;

  • the two most respected Republican elder statesmen in America;

    馬丁·費爾德斯坦及尼可拉斯·曼昆,

  • Martin Feldstein and Greg Mankiw,

    這兩位在本國最受推崇的 保守派經濟學家;

  • the two most respected conservative economists in the country;

    及亨利·鮑爾森和羅伯·沃爾頓,

  • and Henry Paulson and Rob Walton,

    這兩位最成功最受景仰的商業領袖。

  • two of the most successful and admired business leaders.

    我們一起合寫

  • Together, we co-authored

    「保守派的碳利實例」。

  • "The Conservative Case For Carbon Dividends."

    這是第一次

  • This represents the first time

    由共和黨領袖提出

  • that Republican leaders put forth

    具體的市場經濟氣候方案。

  • a concrete market-based climate solution.

    (掌聲)

  • (Applause)

    謝謝!

  • Thank you.

    (掌聲)

  • (Applause)

    我們在川普總統上任兩週後

  • We presented our plan at the White House

    在白宮呈獻此計劃。

  • two weeks after President Trump moved in.

    幾乎所有美國主要的報章編輯委員會

  • Almost every leading editorial board in the country

    都背書支持我們的計劃,

  • has since endorsed our plan,

    橫跨各界的財星百大企業

  • and Fortune 100 companies from a wide range of industries

    也開始支持它。

  • are now getting behind it.

    所以此刻你大概在想,

  • So by now you're probably wondering,

    到底這是什麼計劃?

  • what exactly is this plan?

    我們的碳利方法有四大支柱。

  • Well, our carbon dividends solution is based on four pillars.

    第一是逐步增加碳稅。

  • The first is a gradually rising carbon tax.

    雖然資本主義是很棒的系統,

  • Although capitalism is a wonderful system,

    但它就像很多作業系統一樣, 很容易出現錯誤,

  • like many operating systems, it's prone to bugs,

    在我們這個情況 就叫作「市場失靈」。

  • which, in this case, are called "market failures."

    到目前為止最大的失靈, 就是市場價格不能

  • By far the largest is that market prices fail to take

    將社會及環境成本加進來。

  • social and environmental costs into account.

    這意味著每一筆市場交易 都是基於錯誤的資訊。

  • That means every market transaction is based on incorrect information.

    資本主義這項根本錯誤, 超過其它任何因子,

  • This fundamental bug of capitalism, more than any other single factor,

    要為我們的氣候困境 付上最大的責任。

  • is to blame for our climate predicament.

    理論上,這應是很容易解決的問題。

  • Now in theory, this should be an easy problem to fix.

    經濟學家同意

  • Economists agree

    最好的解方就是 把石化燃料裡的碳標上價錢,

  • that the best solution is to put a price on the carbon content of fossil fuels,

    也就是所謂的碳稅。

  • otherwise known as a carbon tax.

    這樣就會鼓勵減少

  • This would discourage carbon emissions

    在每年每天,每一筆 經濟交易中的碳排放。

  • in every single economic transaction,

    然而,碳稅本身已證明不受歡迎,

  • every day of the year.

    在政治面也走到死胡同。

  • However, a carbon tax by itself has proven to be unpopular

    解答就是把所有徵收到的錢

  • and a political dead end.

    直接回饋給老百姓,

  • The answer is to return all the money raised

    以每月固定的紅利形式。

  • directly to citizens,

    這樣會把不受歡迎的碳稅

  • in the form of equal monthly dividends.

    變成受歡迎、帶平民主義 色彩的解決方案,

  • This would transform an unpopular carbon tax

    而且這也能解決

  • into a popular and populist solution,

    我們剛剛討論過的潛在心理障礙,

  • and it would also solve

    因為我們讓每一個人 都能在當下拿到具體的好處。

  • the underlying psychological barrier that we discussed,

    這些好處很重要。

  • by giving everyone a concrete benefit in the here and now.

    假設碳稅的起價是每噸四十美元,

  • And these benefits would be significant.

    一開始一個四口之家 每年就會收到兩千美元。

  • Assuming a carbon tax rate that starts at 40 dollars per ton,

    根據美國財務部的資料,

  • a family of four would receive 2,000 dollars per year

    收入在後 70% 的美國人 收到的紅利,

  • from the get-go.

    會比他們付的上漲能源價格還多。

  • According to the US Treasury Department,

    這意味著二億二千三百萬美國人,

  • the bottom 70 percent of Americans would receive more in dividends

    會因為解決氣候變遷問題 而贏得經濟上的好處。

  • than they would pay in increased energy prices.

    而且這──

  • That means 223 million Americans would win economically

    (掌聲)

  • from solving climate change.

    這是很大的變革,

  • And that --

    還會從根本改變氣候政策。

  • (Applause)

    但是這裡還有另一項變革。

  • is revolutionary,

    紅利金額

  • and could fundamentally alter climate politics.

    會隨著碳稅率增加而成長。

  • But there's another revolutionary element here.

    我們愈保護氣候,

  • The amount of the dividend would grow

    老百姓就得到愈多好處。

  • as the carbon tax rate increases.

    這會產生正向回饋,

  • The more we protect our climate,

    而這很重要,

  • the more our citizens benefit.

    因為我們要達到排放減量 長期目標的唯一方法,

  • This creates a positive feedback loop,

    就是要每年增加碳稅率。

  • which is crucial,

    這個計劃的第三個支柱就是廢除

  • because the only way we will reach our long-term emission-reduction goals

    不合時宜的法規,

  • is if the carbon tax rate goes up every year.

    在碳紅利開始實施之後。

  • The third pillar of our program is eliminating regulations

    這對共和黨及商業領袖是一大賣點。

  • that are no longer needed

    我們為什麼要拿

  • once a carbon dividends plan is enacted.

    氣候法規跟碳的價錢交換呢?

  • This is a key selling point to Republicans and business leaders.

    嗯,給大家看一下。

  • So why should we trade

    我們的計劃有不但可能 讓排放減量目標,

  • climate regulations for a price on carbon?

    比歐巴馬時代全部的 氣候法規所達成的高一倍,

  • Well, let me show you.

    在川普總統廢止所有氣候法規後,

  • Our plan would achieve nearly twice the emissions reductions

    還會高出幾乎多兩倍的目標。

  • of all Obama-era climate regulations combined,

    那假設碳稅起價為每噸四十美元,

  • and nearly three times the new baseline

    換算出來每加侖汽油 大約會增收 36 美分。

  • after President Trump repeals all of those regulations.

    我們的計劃本身

  • That assumes a carbon tax starting at 40 dollars per ton,

    就會達到美國在巴黎氣候協議

  • which translates into roughly an extra 36 cents per gallon of gas.

    承諾的減量最大值,

  • Our plan by itself

    就像你們看到的,

  • would meet the high end of America's commitment

    排放減量會隨著時間持續下去。

  • under the Paris Climate Agreement,

    這說明了保守派氣候解方的力量,

  • and as you can see,

    根據自由市場和有限政府的理念。

  • the emissions reductions would continue over time.

    我們有可能會有較少的法規,

  • This illustrates the power of a conservative climate solution

    同時卻產生更少的汙染,

  • based on free markets and limited government.

    也可以幫助美國勞工階級成功。

  • We would end up with less regulation

    這難道不是我們都會支持的嗎?

  • and far less pollution at the same time,

    (掌聲)

  • while helping working-class Americans get ahead.

    本計劃第四項也是最後一個支柱, 就是嶄新的氣候骨牌效應,

  • Doesn't that sound like something we could all support?

    根據邊境調整措施。

  • (Applause)

    這聽起來好像很複雜,

  • The fourth and final pillar of our program is a new climate domino effect,

    但是這其實也很革新,

  • based on border carbon adjustments.

    因為這提供我們全新的策略

  • Now that may sound complicated,

    找出碳的全球定價,

  • but it, too, is revolutionary,

    那正是我們的終極目標。

  • because it provides us a whole new strategy

    請大家看一個例子。

  • to reach a global price on carbon,

    假設甲國採取了碳紅利計畫,

  • which is ultimately what we need.

    但是乙國沒有。

  • Let me show you an example.

    那麼,為了使兩邊交易公平,

  • Suppose Country A adopts a carbon dividends plan,

    並保護各自的工業競爭力,

  • and Country B does not.

    甲國會對乙國

  • Well, to level the playing field

    按照物品碳含量課進口稅。

  • and protect the competitiveness of its industries,

    很公平。

  • Country A would tax imports from Country B

    但這就是事情變得有意思的地方。

  • based on their carbon content.

    因為在邊境收到的錢

  • Fair enough.

    會增加甲國老百姓得到的紅利。

  • But here's where it gets really interesting,

    那麼,你猜乙國百姓 要多久以後才會發現

  • because the money raised at the border would increase the dividends

    那筆錢其實應該歸給他們,

  • going to the citizens of Country A.

    然後要求自己的政府 也實施碳紅利計畫?

  • Well, how long do you think it would take the public in Country B to realize

    再多加幾個國家,