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  • When someone mentions Cuba,

    譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 易帆 余

  • what do you think about?

    當有人提到古巴,

  • Classic, classic cars?

    你會想到什麼?

  • Perhaps good cigars?

    經典,經典的車子?

  • Maybe you think of a famous baseball player.

    或是高檔雪茄?

  • What about when somebody mentions North Korea?

    也許你想到的是知名的棒球員。

  • You think about those missile tests,

    那如果有人提到北韓呢?

  • maybe their notorious leader

    你會想到的是那些飛彈測試,

  • or his good friend, Dennis Rodman.

    也許是那位惡名昭彰的領導者,

  • (Laughter)

    或是他的好朋友,丹尼斯羅德曼。

  • One thing that likely doesn't come to mind

    (笑聲)

  • is a vision of a country,

    有一樣東西通常不會被想到,

  • an open economy,

    就是一個國家的遠景,

  • whose citizens have access to a wide range of affordable consumer products.

    一個開放的經濟體,

  • I'm not here to argue how these countries got to where they are today.

    如何讓他的人民取得各種 他們可付擔得起的消費產品。

  • I simply want to use them as an example of countries and citizens

    我並不是來這裡爭論這些國家 是如何走到今天這一步的。

  • who have been affected, negatively affected,

    我只是想要用它們當作例子,

  • by a trade policy that restricts imports

    來說明國家及人民 會因為限制進口政策

  • and protects local industries.

    以及保護本土產業主義

  • Recently we've heard a number of countries

    而造成負面影響。

  • talk about restricting imports

    最近,我們聽到有不少國家

  • and protecting their local, domestic industries.

    在談論要限制進口,

  • Now, this may sound fine in a sound bite,

    藉以保護它們的本土產業。

  • but what it really is is protectionism.

    乍聽之下,這想法聽起來沒問題,

  • We heard a lot about this during the 2016 presidential election.

    但它其實只是一種保護主義。

  • We heard about it during the Brexit debates

    在 2016 年的總統大選時, 我們常聽到這個議題。

  • and most recently during the French elections.

    在英國脫歐的辯論中 我們也常聽到它,

  • In fact, it's been a really important topic

    最近,在法國選舉中也會聽到。

  • being talked about around the world,

    事實上,它一直是個全世界

  • and many aspiring political leaders

    都在談論的重要主題,

  • are running on platforms positioning protectionism as a good thing.

    且許多有抱負的政治領袖

  • Now, I could see why they think protectionism is good,

    不斷地在演說中說明 保護主義是件好事。

  • because sometimes it seems like trade is unfair.

    我可以了解為何他們認為 保護主義是好的,

  • Some have blamed trade

    因為,有時候,貿易看起來 似乎是不公平的。

  • for some of the problems we've been having here at home in the US.

    有些人會怪罪貿易,

  • For years we've been hearing

    我們在自家美國所發生的 一些問題都是貿易的錯。

  • about the loss of high-paying US manufacturing jobs.

    多年來,我們都不斷聽到

  • Many think that manufacturing is declining in the US

    高薪的美國製造業工作在減少。

  • because companies are moving their operations offshore

    許多人認為,在美國, 製造業在走下坡,

  • to markets with lower-cost labor

    是因為公司把它們的 營運移到海外去,

  • like China, Mexico and Vietnam.

    移到低成本勞工的市場,

  • They also think trade agreements sometimes are unfair,

    比如中國、墨西哥、越南。

  • like NAFTA

    他們也認為,貿易協定 有時候是不公平的,

  • and the Trans-Pacific Partnership,

    如北美自由貿易協定、

  • because these trade agreements allow companies

    以及跨太平洋夥伴關係,

  • to reimport those cheaply produced goods back into the US

    因為這些貿易協定讓公司

  • and other countries from where the jobs were taken.

    可以將那些便宜製造的商品 重新進口回來美國,

  • So it kind of feels like the exporters win

    以及其它工作機會被搶走的國家。

  • and the importers lose.

    所以這種感覺有點像是,出口者贏,

  • Now, the reality is

    進口者輸。

  • output in the manufacturing sector in the US

    現實則是,

  • is actually growing,

    在美國,製造業的出口

  • but we are losing jobs.

    其實在成長,

  • We're losing lots of them.

    但我們的工作在減少。

  • In fact, from 2000 to 2010,

    我們的工作減少很多。

  • 5.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost.

    事實上,從 2000 年到 2010 年,

  • But they're not being lost for the reasons you might think.

    就減少了 570 萬個製造業工作。

  • Mike Johnson in Toledo, Ohio

    但這些工作之所以減少的原因

  • didn't lose his jobs at the factory

    和你想的不同。

  • to Miguel Sanchez in Monterrey, Mexico.

    俄亥俄州托利多市的麥克強生,

  • No.

    他丟掉工作的原因並不是輸給

  • Mike lost his job to a machine.

    墨西哥蒙特雷市的米戈山切斯。

  • 87 percent of lost manufacturing jobs

    不是。

  • have been eliminated because we've made improvements

    麥克丟掉工作的原因, 是因為一台機器。

  • in our own productivity through automation.

    87% 的製造業工作機會消失,

  • So that means that one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs

    是因為我們用自動化

  • was due to offshoring.

    改善了我們自己的生產力而造成的。

  • Now, this is not just a US phenomenon.

    那意味著,每十個 被縮減掉的製造業工作中,

  • No.

    只有一個是因為外移造成的。

  • In fact, automation is spreading to every production line

    這不只是在美國才有的現象。

  • in every country around the world.

    不是。

  • But look, I get it:

    事實上,自動化遍及了

  • if you just lost your job

    全世界每一個國家的每一條生產線。

  • and then you read in the newspaper

    但,我懂:

  • that your old company just struck up a deal with China,

    如果你剛丟了你的工作,

  • it's easy to think you were just replaced

    接著你在報紙上讀到

  • in a one-for-one deal.

    你原本的公司剛剛和中國簽了協議,

  • When I hear stories like this, I think that what people picture

    很容易就會聯想到,

  • is that trade happens between only two countries.

    你是被一個換一個的 協議所取代掉的。

  • Manufacturers in one country

    當我聽到像這樣的故事, 我認為人們所想像的是,

  • produce products and they export them

    貿易只發生在兩個國家之間。

  • to consumers in other countries,

    製造商在一個國家

  • and it feels like the manufacturing countries win

    生產產品然後出口銷售給

  • and the importing countries lose.

    另一個國家的消費者,

  • Well, reality's a little bit different.

    感覺就像是製造國贏,

  • I'm a supply chain professional,

    而進口國輸。

  • and I live and work in Mexico.

    嗯,現實有點不同。

  • And I work in the middle

    我是供應鏈專家,

  • of a highly connected network of manufacturers

    我住在墨西哥,也在那裡工作。

  • all collaborating from around the world

    而我在一個

  • to produce many of the products we use today.

    高度連結的製造商網路中工作,

  • What I see

    這些世界各地的製造商彼此合作,

  • from my front-row seat in Mexico City

    來生產出許多現今我們使用的產品。

  • actually looks more like this.

    我在墨西哥市

  • And this is a more accurate depiction of what trade really looks like.

    最接近最清楚的位置所看到的,

  • I've had the pleasure of being able to see

    其實比較像是這樣。

  • how many different products are manufactured,

    這個對貿易的描繪,算是 較精確也較接近真實情況。

  • from golf clubs to laptop computers

    我有榮幸能夠看到

  • to internet servers, automobiles

    許多不同的產品是如何製造出來的,

  • and even airplanes.

    從高爾夫球桿到筆記型電腦,

  • And believe me, none of it happens in a straight line.

    到網際網路服務、汽車、

  • Let me give you an example.

    甚至飛機。

  • A few months ago, I was touring the manufacturing plant

    相信我,這些發生過程 都不是直線的。

  • of a multinational aerospace company

    讓我舉個例子。

  • in Querétaro, Mexico,

    幾個月前,我去墨西哥

  • and the VP of logistics points out a completed tail assembly.

    巡視一間跨國航太公司

  • It turns out the tail assemblies are assembled from panels

    位在克雷塔羅的製造工廠,

  • that are manufactured in France,

    物流管理副總比了一個 組裝完成的尾翼。

  • and they're assembled in Mexico

    結果,那尾翼是用

  • using components imported from the US.

    法國製造的鑲板來組裝的,

  • When those tail assemblies are done,

    而組裝是在墨西哥進行,

  • they're exported via truck to Canada

    使用的元件從美國進口。

  • to their primary assembly plant

    尾翼的組裝完成後,

  • where they come together

    會被卡車載到加拿大,

  • with thousands of other parts,

    到它們的主要組裝工廠,

  • like the wings and the seats

    在那間工廠裡,

  • and the little shades over the little windows,

    它們和其它數千個零件 會被組裝起來,

  • all coming in to become a part of a new airplane.

    比如機翼和座椅,

  • Think about it.

    和小窗戶上面的小遮光板,

  • These new airplanes,

    全都組合起來, 成為新飛機的一部份。

  • before they even take their first flight,

    想想看。

  • they have more stamps in their passports

    這些新飛機,

  • than Angelina Jolie.

    在第一次飛行之前,

  • Now, this approach to processing goes on all around the world

    它們護照上的戳章數目就已經勝過

  • to manufacture many of the products

    安潔莉娜裘莉了。

  • we use every day,

    全世界都在用這個方式運轉,

  • from skin cream to airplanes.

    來製造出我們每天

  • When you go home tonight, take a look in your house.

    使用的日常用品,

  • You might be surprised to find a label that looks like this one:

    從護膚乳液到飛機。

  • "Manufactured in the USA from US and foreign parts."

    你晚上回家時,看看你的房子,

  • Economist Michael Porter

    你可能會很驚訝地發現 像這樣子的標籤:

  • described what's going on here best.

    「美國製造;零件:美國及外國。」

  • Many decades ago, he said that it's most beneficial for a country

    經濟學家麥可波特

  • to focus on producing the products it can produce most efficiently

    對這個情況的描述是最貼切的。

  • and trading for the rest.

    數十年前,他說,

  • So what he's talking about here is shared production,

    對一個國家來說,最有益的做法是

  • and efficiency is the name of the game.

    著重生產該國最有生產效能的產品,

  • You've probably seen an example of this

    其餘的則用貿易取得。

  • at home or at work.

    所以,他在談的就是共享生產,

  • Let's take a look at an example.

    而這個遊戲的名字就叫做效率。

  • Think about how your house was built

    你可能在家或在工作時有看過

  • or your kitchen renovated.

    相關的例子。

  • Typically, there's a general contractor

    我們先來看個例子。

  • who is responsible for coordinating the efforts

    想想看你的房子是怎麼建造的、

  • of all the different contractors:

    或廚房是怎麼翻修的。

  • an architect to draw the plans,

    通常,會有一個總包商,

  • an earth-moving company to dig the foundation,

    它的責任是協調所有各個

  • a plumber, a carpenter and so on.

    包商之間的工作:

  • So why doesn't the general contractor

    一名建築師來畫設計圖、

  • pick just one company

    一家運土公司來挖地基、

  • to do all the work,

    一個水電工、一個木匠,等等。

  • like, say, the architect?

    為什麼總包商不要

  • Because this is silly.

    只選一家公司,

  • The general contractor selects experts

    比如選建築師,

  • because it takes years

    來做所有工作?

  • to learn and master

    因為這樣很蠢。

  • how to do each of the tasks it takes to build a house or renovate a kitchen,

    總包商會選專家,

  • some of them requiring special training.

    因為需要花上數年時間,

  • Think about it:

    才能學會和精通

  • Would you want your architect to install your toilet?

    建造一間房子或翻修一間廚房 所需要的工作任務,

  • Of course not.

    有些工作任務還需要特別訓練。

  • So let's apply this process to the corporate world.

    想想看:

  • Companies today focus on manufacturing

    你會想要你的建築師 來安裝你的馬桶嗎?

  • what they produce best and most efficiently,

    當然不想。

  • and they trade for everything else.

    所以,我們把這個過程 應用到企業的世界。

  • So this means they rely

    現今的公司會著重在製造

  • on a global, interconnected, interdependent network of manufacturers

    它們最擅長、且能 最有效率生產的東西,

  • to produce these products.

    其他的東西就靠貿易來取得。

  • In fact, that network is so interconnected

    這意味著,它們仰賴

  • it's almost impossible

    一個互相連結、互存共生的 全球製造商網路

  • to dismantle and produce products in just one country.

    來生產這些產品。

  • Let's take a look at the interconnected web

    事實上,那個網路的相互連結性

  • we saw a few moments ago,

    緊密到幾乎不可能

  • and let's focus on just one strand

    把它拆開,然後只在 一個國家生產產品。

  • between the US and Mexico.

    我們來看看剛才的

  • The Wilson Institute says that shared production represents

    相互連結網路圖,

  • 40 percent of the half a trillion dollars in trade between the US and Mexico.

    我們把焦點放在美國和墨西哥

  • That's about 200 billion dollars,

    之間的這個部份就好。

  • or the same as the GDP for Portugal.

    威爾遜機構說,共享生產就佔了

  • So let's just imagine

    美國和墨西哥間共 五千億美元之貿易的 40%。

  • that the US decides to impose

    那就是大約兩千億美元,

  • a 20 percent border tax on all imports from Mexico.

    等同於葡萄牙的國內生產總值。

  • OK, fine.

    我們來想像一下,

  • But do you think Mexico is just going to stand by and let that happen?

    如果美國決定要針對所有來自

  • No. No way.

    墨西哥的進口, 施加 20% 的邊境稅。

  • So in retaliation, they impose a similar tax

    好,沒問題。

  • on all goods being imported from the US,

    但,你認為墨西哥會 袖手旁觀讓它發生嗎?

  • and a little game of tit-for-tat ensues,

    不會,不可能。

  • and 20 percent -- just imagine that 20 percent duties

    為了報復,他們會針對從美國

  • are added to every good, product, product component

    進口的所有商品課徵類似的稅,

  • crossing back and forth across the border,

    接著就是一報還一報的小遊戲,

  • and you could be looking at more than a 40 percent increase in duties,

    20% ──想像一下,20% 的關稅

  • or 80 billion dollars.

    被加到從邊境進進出出的

  • Now, don't kid yourself,

    每一樣商品、產品、產品元件上,

  • these costs are going to be passed along

    可能會因此增加超過 40% 的關稅,

  • to you and to me.

    即八百億美元。

  • Now, let's think about what impact that might have on some of the products,

    不要自欺欺人了,

  • or the prices of the products, that we buy every day.

    這些成本都會轉嫁到

  • So if a 30 percent increase in duties were actually passed along,

    你我身上。

  • we would be looking at some pretty important increases in prices.

    現在,再來想想我們 每天購買的那些產品、

  • A Lincoln MKZ would go from 37,000 dollars to 48,000.

    或其價格,會受到什麼影響。

  • And the price of a Sharp 60-inch HDTV

    如果實際上轉嫁 30% 的增加關稅 ,

  • would go from 898 dollars to 1,167 dollars.

    我們將會看到價格被調升許多。

  • And the price of a 16-ounce jar of CVS skin moisturizer

    林肯汽車 MKZ 車款的價格 會從 $37,000 提升到 $48,000。

  • would go from 13 dollars to 17 dollars.

    夏普的高畫質電視價格

  • Now, remember, this is only looking at one strand of the production chain

    會從 $898 提升到 $1,167。

  • between the US and Mexico,

    而 16 盎司的 CVS 藥局 罐裝護膚液價格

  • so multiply this out across all of the strands.

    會從 $13 提升到 $17。

  • The impact could be considerable.

    別忘了,這只是美國和墨西哥 之間的一條生產鏈而已,

  • Now, just think about this:

    如果把其它部份都乘進來,

  • even if we were able to dismantle this network

    影響會非常巨大。

  • and produce products in just one country,

    想想這一點:

  • which by the way is easier said than done,

    即使我們有辦法拆解這個網路,

  • we would still only be saving or protecting

    只在一個國家中生產產品,

  • one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs.

    我只能說,說的比做的容易,

  • That's right, because remember,

    我們還是只能拯救或是保護

  • most of those jobs, 87 percent,

    十個被縮減的製造業工作中的一個。

  • were lost due to improvements in our own productivity.

    沒錯,別忘了,

  • And unfortunately, those jobs, they're gone for good.

    因為大部份這些工作,有 87%,

  • So the real question is,

    是因為我們自己生產力的 改善而消失掉的。

  • does it make sense for us to drive up prices

    不幸的是,那些工作 永遠不會再回來了。

  • to the point where many of us can't afford the basic goods we use every day

    所以,真正的問題是,

  • for the purpose of saving a job

    這麼做合理嗎? 把日用品價格提高到

  • that might be eliminated in a couple of years anyway?

    許多人都無法負擔的程度,

  • The reality is that shared production

    只是為了拯救一些工作,

  • allows us to manufacture higher quality products

    且這些工作在幾年後 終究還是會消失?

  • at lower costs.

    現實是,共享生產

  • It's that simple.

    讓我們能用較低的成本來製造出

  • It allows us to get more

    更高品質的產品。

  • out of the limited resources and expertise we have

    就這麼簡單。

  • and at the same time benefit from lower prices.

    它讓我們能從有限的資源和專長中,

  • It's really important to remember

    盡可能得到更多,

  • that for shared production to be effective,

    同時我們還享有價格較低的好處。

  • it relies on efficient cross-border movement of raw materials,

    很重要的是要記住,

  • components and finished products.

    若要讓共享生產能有效地發揮作用,

  • So remember this:

    就需要讓原料、元件、成品都能

  • the next time you're hearing somebody try to sell you on the idea

    有效率地通過邊境。

  • that protectionism is a good deal,

    所以,切記這一點:

  • it's just not.

    下次,你聽到有人要說服你說

  • Thank you.

    保護主義是個很好的辦法時,

  • (Applause)

    你要知道並非如此。

When someone mentions Cuba,

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 易帆 余

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 貿易 墨西哥 工作 進口 生產

TED】奧吉-皮卡多。製造業工作正在消失的真正原因(The real reason manufacturing jobs are disappearing | Augie Picado)。 (【TED】Augie Picado: The real reason manufacturing jobs are disappearing (The real reason manufacturing jobs are disappearing | Augie Picado))

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    Zenn 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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