The urbanization process started in the late 1700s

如今，世界上超過一半的 人口住在城市裡。

and has been increasing since then.

城市化的發展 始於 1700 年代末期，

The prediction is that by 2050,

並持續增加至今。

66 percent of the population will live in cities

根據預測，到 2050 年時，

and the United Nations, the World Health Organization,

將會有 66% 的人口住在城市裡，

the World Economic Forum, are warning us,

聯合國屬下的世界衛生組織，

if we don't plan for the increased density,

和世界經濟論壇，警告我們，

current problems in our cities, like inequality, congestion, crime

如果我們不計劃因應 增加的人口密度，

can only get worse.

像不平等、人口擁擠、犯罪等 城市目前面臨的問題，

As a result, urban planners and city developers

只會變得更糟糕。

are putting a lot of effort and creativity

所以，規劃和發展城市的人

in designing our future, denser, bigger cities.

砸下大把功夫和創新

But I have a different opinion.

來設計我們未來人口更密集、 規模更大的城市。

I think urbanization is actually reaching the end of its cycle,

可是我有不同的觀點。

and now people are going to start moving back to the countryside.

我認為城市化實際上 已經達到它循環週期的盡頭了，

And you may think, "But what about the trend?"

如今人們開始住回鄉村。

Well, let me tell you,

你或許納悶：「關於那趨勢呢？」

socioeconomic trends don't last forever.

好，讓我來告訴你，

You know, 12,000 years ago

社會經濟趨勢並不永續。

everybody was perfectly happy

要知道，在一萬兩千年前，

roaming the land, hunting and gathering.

每個人都開心地

And then, the trend changes,

在土地上漫遊、打獵和聚居。

and the new thing is to live in a farm and have cattle,

然後趨勢變了，

until it changes again.

農牧業開始發展，

When we get to the industrial revolution.

直到趨勢再度改變，

Actually, that is what started the urbanization process.

我們到來工業革命。

And you know what triggered it?

實際上，那是城市化發展的起始。

Steam power, machines,

你知道是什麼觸發的嗎？

new chemical processes --

是蒸汽動力、機械、

in two words, technological innovation.

新的化學加工，

And I believe technology can also bring the end of this cycle.

總結成兩個字，就是科技創新。

I've been working on innovation for most of my career.

我也相信科技也會終止這個循環。

I love it. I love my job.

我的大半職涯一直在創新。

It allows me to work with drones, with 3D printers and smart glasses,

我愛創新，我愛我的職業，

and not just those you can buy in the shop but also prototypes.

我的工作用到無人機、 3D 列印機，和智能眼鏡，

It's a lot of fun sometimes.

不只是商場裡買得到的成品， 還包括樣板原型。

Now, some of these technologies

有時候非常的有趣。

are opening new possibilities that will radically change

其中的一些科技

the way we did things before

正在開創新的遠景，

and in a few years,

我們做事的方式將會在

they may allow us to enjoy the benefits of city life

短短幾年內從本質上產生巨變，

from anywhere.

使我們得以享受城市生活的好處，

Think about it.

不論身在何處。

If you could live in a place with a lower crime rate

思考一下！

and more space

如果你能住在犯罪率低、

and a lower cost of living

空間大、

and less traffic,

消費低、

of course many people would want that,

交通不擁擠的地方；

but they feel they don't have a choice.

那當然是許多人的盼望，

You have to live in the city.

但他們未必有這樣的選項，

Well, in the past, people moved to the cities

只好住在城市裡。

not because they loved the city itself

好，過去人們移居城市

but for the things you could have in a city,

不是因為他們喜歡城市本身，

more job opportunities,

而是為了在城市裡能得到的東西：

easier access to services and goods

更多就業機會、

and a rich social life.

更容易獲得服務設施、

So let's dive deeper.

以及更豐富的社交生活。

More jobs and career opportunities.

讓我們進一步探討。

Is that still true today,

城市裡有更多的就業和陞遷機會

because the office people are starting to realize

今天仍然是事實，

that working in the office and being in the office

因為那些白領階級開始意識到

may not be the same thing anymore.

在公司裡工作和「待」在公司裡

According to a study by Global Workplace Analytics,

不盡然是同一回事了。

more than 80 percent of the US workforce would like to work from home.

根據全球就業分析的研究，

And do you know how much it costs for a company to even have an office?

超過 80% 的美國勞動者 願意在家工作。

11,000 dollars per employee per year.

你可知道公司設立一間辦公室 得要花多少錢嗎？

If only half of those workers

每個員工一年要花 11,000 美元。

would telework even 50 percent of the time,

如果半數的員工

the savings in the states would exceed 500 billion dollars,

有一半的時間遠距工作，

and it could reduce greenhouse gases by 54 million tons.

可為美國省下超過五百億美元，

That is the equivalent

還可減少 5400 萬噸的 溫室氣體排放，

of 10 million cars off the streets for a whole year.

這就相當於

But even though most people would want to telework,

街道上一年少了 一千萬汽車的排放量。

current technology makes the experience isolating.

但即使大多數人想遠距辦公，

It's not comfortable.

當前的科技讓人感到與世隔離，

It doesn't feel like being there.

讓人感到不舒服，

But that is going to change

和在辦公室裡的感覺不一樣。

by the convergence of two technologies:

但這會因融入兩種 新興的科技而改變：

augmented reality and telepresence robots.

擴增實境科技，和遠端臨場機器人。

Augmented reality already today

如今的擴增實境科技

allows you to take your office environment everywhere with you.

能讓你把辦公室的氛圍 帶到每個地點，

All you need is a wearable computer, a pair of smart glasses,

只需要一台電腦和一副智能眼鏡，

and you can take your emails and your spreadsheets

你就可以帶著郵件和電子圖表

with you wherever you go.

到處走了。

And video conferences and video calls have become very common these days,

如今視訊會議和通話變得十分普遍，

but they still need improvement.

但仍有改進的空間。

I mean, all those little faces on a flat screen,

我的意思是，那些顯示在 平面螢幕上的小小臉孔，

sometimes you don't even know who is talking.

有時候你根本不知道到底誰在講話。

Now, we already have something way better than static videocalls:

現在我們已有比 靜態視訊通話更好的東西：

your average telepresence robot.

遠端臨場機器人。

I call it tablet on a stick.

我稱它為桿子上的平板電腦。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You can control, you can move around,

你可以控制它、隨意移動它，

you can control what you're looking at.

可以控制你的視線範圍。

It's way better, but far from perfect.

這是改進了的產品， 但是離完美還遠得很。

You know how they say

你們知道常言道

that most human communication is nonverbal?

多數人以無聲交流吧？

Well, the robot doesn't give you any of that.

但機器人可不會無聲交流，

It looks like an alien.

它看上去就像是個外星人。

But with advances in augmented reality,

但是透過擴增實境，

it will be easy to wrap the robot in a nice hologram

可以很輕易地把機器人 用個好的全息投影包裝起來，

that actually looks and moves like a person.

使它看起來像人，動起來像人，

That will do it.

那就夠了。

Or else, forget the robot.

或者這樣，別管機器人，

We go full VR,

我們用全副的虛擬實境，

and everybody meets in cyberspace.

每個人都在網路世界裡相遇。

Give it a couple of years and that will feel so real,

再過幾年的時間，

you won't tell the difference.

就會逼真到讓你辨不出 它和現實世界有任何差別。

So what was the next reason why people move to cities?

大家遷徙到城市居住的 另一個原因是什麼呢？

Access to services and goods.

為要能夠得到更多的服務和物品，

But today you can do all that online.

但是現在你都可以在網上解決。

According to a study made by comScore,

根據網站數據測量公司 comScore 的一份研究，

online shoppers in the US last year

去年美國的網購者

did more than half of their retail purchases online,

在網上採購過半的零售品，

and the global market for e-commerce

全球市場的網上貿易額

is estimated to be at two trillion dollars.

估計將達到兩兆美元。

And it's expected to reach 2.38 by the end of 2017,

預期在 2017 年底 可望達到 2.38 兆美元，

according to eMarketer.

資料來自市場研究機構 eMarketer。

Now, from a logistics standpoint,

從物流的立場來看，

density is good for deliveries.

密度有利於送貨。

Supplying goods to a shopping mall is easy.

把貨物供應給商場很簡單，

You can send big shipments to the shop,

把一大批的貨物寄到商店，

and people will go there, pick it up and take it home themselves.

然後顧客上門提貨自己帶回家。

E-commerce means we need to ship onesies

網路貿易代表單件商品

and have them home delivered.

必須被直接寄到顧客的家中，

That's more expensive.

運費貴得多了。

It's like the difference between having a birthday party for 20 people

就好比是邀請二十個人 來參加生日派對，

or bringing a piece of the cake

或是將每塊生日蛋糕

to each of your 20 friends at their place.

分別送到二十個人的家中。

But at least in the city,

但至少在城市裡，

they live close to each other.

人們住得相對近，

Density helps.

人口密度是有利的。

Now, e-commerce deliveries in the countryside,

而網購郵寄包裹到鄉下

those take forever.

需要很長的時間才能到貨。

The truck sometimes needs to drive miles between one address and the next one.

有時候卡車得要 開長距離到下一個地址，

Those are the most expensive deliveries of all.

那是所有遞送中最貴的了。

But we already have a solution for that:

但是我們已經有解決方案了：

drones.

無人機。

A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones.

一輛車載著一隊的無人機。

The driver does some of the deliveries

司機只需要遞送一部分，

while the drones are flying back and forth from the truck as it moves.

而在卡車遞送的過程中， 由無人機來回送貨。

That way, the average cost for delivery is reduced,

這樣一來，減少了平均的遞送花費，

and voila:

瞧：

affordable e-commerce services in the countryside.

鄉村也可以有實惠的網路貿易服務。

You will see:

你會看到：

the new homes of our teleworkers

在遠距辦公者住家的院子裡

will probably have a drone pod in the yard.

可能就會裝置著無人機的卡座。

So once the final mile delivery is not a problem,

一旦最後一里路的遞送不再是問題，

you don't need to be in the city to buy things anymore.

你就不需要在城市裡買東西了。

So that's two.

那是第二個理由。

Now, what was the third reason why people move to cities?

人們移居到城市的 第三個原因是什麼？

A rich social life.

是豐富的社交生活。

They would need to be in the city for that these days.

如今，豐富的社交生活 得要待在城市裡。

Because people these days,

現在的人交友、

they make friends, they chat, gossip and flirt

交流、八卦和調情，

from the comfort of their sofa.

都能窩在自家的沙發裡做，

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And while wearing their favorite pajamas.

身上穿著自己喜歡的睡衣。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

There are over two billion active social media users in the world.

現在全世界有二十億 活躍的社交媒體用戶。

In a way, that makes you think like we are connected

從某種方面來看，我們互相聯繫著，

no matter where we are.

不管我們身在那裡。

But OK, not completely.

但好吧，不盡然如此。

Sometimes you still need some real human contact.

有時候還是需要一些 真正人與人之間的交流的。

Ironically, the city, with its population density,

諷刺的是，雖然城市有高人口密度，

is not always the best for that.

但卻不總是適合交友的地方。

Actually, as social groups become smaller,

事實上，社交圈越小就越牢固。

they grow stronger.

英國國家數據庫的近期研究

A recent study made in the UK

顯示居住在農村的人

by the Office for National Statistics

有更高的生活幸福指數。

showed a higher life satisfaction rating

人們定居於鄉村，

among people living in rural areas.

他們買當地的雜貨、

So as people settle in the countryside,

新鮮的雜貨、食物，和維修服務。

well, they will buy local groceries,

使水電工、小商鋪和服務公司興旺。

fresh groceries, foodstuff,

可能有些城市工人

maintenance services.

被自動化取代而失了業，

So handymen, small workshops, service companies will thrive.

會在鄉村找到更好的 替代工作而遷居。

Maybe some of the industrial workers from the cities

當人們移居鄉間會怎樣呢？

displaced by the automation

試想獨立自主的生活：

will find a nice alternative job here,

房子裝有自給自足的太陽能板，

and they will move too.

有風力發電機、 垃圾廢水回收再利用的設備，

And as people move to the countryside,

新家使用自產的電源， 用來給自家的汽車充電。

how is that going to be?

我的意思是，城市一向 被視為更有效地使用能源，

Think about autonomous,

但是讓我告訴你，

off-the-grid houses with solar panels,

居民返居鄉間，也可以變得環保。

with wind turbines and waste recycling utilities,

現在你可能想著鄉居的好處。

our new homes producing their own energy and using it to also power the family car.

（笑聲）

I mean, cities have always been regarded as being more energy-efficient,

我自己就移居到鄉間。

but let me tell you,

六年前，妻子和我打包了家當，

repopulating the countryside can be eco too.

賣了我們在西班牙的小公寓，

By now, you're probably thinking of all the advantages of country living.

用那些錢買了一個有花園的房子，

(Laughter)

每天早上都能聽見鳥在唱歌。

I did it myself.

（笑聲）

Six years ago, my wife and I, we packed our stuff,

那個環境太好了！

we sold our little apartment in Spain,

我們住的小村莊還不算太鄉下。

and for the same money we bought a house with a garden

但那是我下一步的計畫：

and little birds that come singing in the morning.

整修一個農場，

(Laughter)

離城市不遠也不近，

It's so nice there.

確保有個無人機降落的地點。

And we live in a small village, not really the countryside yet.

（笑聲）

That is going to be my next move:

不過，嘿，那是我的盤算，

a refurbished farmhouse,

未必是你的。

not too far from a city, not too close.

因為看起來好像我在嘗試說服你們

And now we'll make sure to have a good spot for drones to land.

跟我一起移居到鄉間生活。

(Laughter)

我可沒有。

But hey, that's me.

（笑聲）

It doesn't have to be you,

我不要更多人住進來。

because it would seem like I'm trying to convince somebody

（笑聲）

to come join us in the country.

我只是認為人們會移居鄉間，

I'm not.

一旦他們意識到鄉間 和城市有同樣的好處。

(Laughter)

但是如果你不喜歡鄉村，

I don't need more people to come.

我也有好消息要告訴你。

(Laughter)

城市不會消失。

I just think they will

但是當人們遷出，

once they realize they can have the same benefits the city has.

降低的人口密度 有助於城市的管理和平衡。

But if you don't like the country,

不管怎麼樣，我猜你們會思考的。

I have good news for you, too.

你們仍覺得需要住在城市裡嗎？

Cities will not disappear.

更重要的是，

But as people move out,

你們「想要」住在城市裡嗎？

a lower density will help them recover a better flow and balance.

謝謝大家！

Anyway, I guess now you have some thinking to do.

（掌聲）

Do you still think you need to live in the city?

And more importantly,

do you want to?

Thank you very much.

(Applause)