We all know trust is fundamental,

我們都知道信任是萬物之本，

but when it comes to trusting people,

但當談及人跟人之間的信任時，

something profound is happening.

有些意味深遠的事情便發生了。

Please raise your hand

如果各位曾經是 Airbnb 的 房東或房客的話，請舉手。

if you have ever been a host or a guest on Airbnb.

哇！很多人。

Wow. That's a lot of you.

誰有比特幣？

Who owns Bitcoin?

也是非常多人！

Still a lot of you. OK.

那麼如果你曾使用 Tinder 幫助你找到對象的話，也請舉手。

And please raise your hand if you've ever used Tinder

（笑聲）

to help you find a mate.

真的很難算有幾個人， 因為好像你們手都舉得很低。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

This one's really hard to count because you're kind of going like this.

這些例子都顯示出科技創造的新機制

(Laughter)

讓我們信任陌生的人、企業和想法。

These are all examples of how technology

與此同時，

is creating new mechanisms

對制度的信任，

that are enabling us to trust unknown people, companies and ideas.

對銀行、政府 甚至教會的信任正在瓦解。

And yet at the same time,

所以，發生了什麼事？ 你現在還信任誰？

trust in institutions --

我們從法國的一個平台開始談。

banks, governments and even churches --

這其實是一間名字聽起來 有點搞笑的公司，

is collapsing.

叫做「BlaBlaCar」。

So what's happening here,

這個平台

and who do you trust?

為想要一起分享長途旅行的 司機和乘客進行配對。

Let's start in France with a platform -- with a company, I should say --

已經完成的路途平均 320 公里。

with a rather funny-sounding name,

所以大家最好明智地選擇旅伴。

BlaBlaCar.

社交媒體帳戶簡介和評論 幫助人們做選擇。

It's a platform that matches drivers and passengers

你可以知道他是否抽菸， 你可以知道他喜歡的音樂類型，

who want to share long-distance journeys together.

你可以知道他們會否帶著愛犬出遊。

The average ride taken is 320 kilometers.

但其實最關鍵的社會標識符

So it's a good idea to choose your fellow travelers wisely.

卻是你在車裡會說多少話。

Social profiles and reviews help people make a choice.

（笑聲）

You can see if someone's a smoker, you can see what kind of music they like,

Bla 代表話不多，

you can see if they're going to bring their dog along for the ride.

Bla Bla 表示你們想來點閒聊，

But it turns out that the key social identifier

Bla bla Bla 則表示倫敦到巴黎的 整段路程你們都沒完沒了的聊。

is how much you're going to talk in the car.

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

這個想法竟然奏效，實在出人意表，

Bla, not a lot,

因為它違反我們當中大部分 自小被教導的道理：

bla bla, you want a nice bit of chitchat,

永遠不要進到陌生人的車裡。

and bla bla bla, you're not going to stop talking the entire way

然而 BlaBlaCar 的每月載客量 已經超過四百萬人。

from London to Paris.

具體地說，這比歐洲之星 和捷藍航空的載客量還多。

(Laughter)

BlaBlaCar 絕佳體現出

It's remarkable, right, that this idea works at all,

科技如何讓全球數百萬人 改弦易轍互相信任。

because it's counter to the lesson most of us were taught as a child:

信任大躍進在於我們承擔風險，

never get in a car with a stranger.

做點全新或跟以前做法不同的事情。

And yet, BlaBlaCar transports more than four million people

讓我們一起想像這是甚麼回事。

every single month.

我想請你們閉上眼睛。

To put that in context, that's more passengers

那邊有個人張開眼睛看著我，

than the Eurostar or JetBlue airlines carry.

站在這紅色大圓圈上的我都看到了，

BlaBlaCar is a beautiful illustration of how technology is enabling

所以請你們閉上眼睛。

millions of people across the world to take a trust leap.

（笑聲）（拍手）

A trust leap happens when we take the risk to do something new or different

我會與你們一起想像。

to the way that we've always done it.

我要你們想像和某個 不熟悉的事物之間有一條間隙。

Let's try to visualize this together.

這個不熟悉的事物可能是你剛遇到的人。

OK. I want you to close your eyes.

這可以是你不曾去過的地方。

There is a man staring at me with his eyes wide open.

這可以是你不曾嘗試過的事物。

I'm on this big red circle. I can see.

這樣懂嗎？

So close your eyes.

好的，你們可以張開眼睛了。

(Laughter) (Applause)

要你們從明確的地方大跳躍出去，

I'll do it with you.

嘗試跟不熟悉的人和事一起，

And I want you to imagine there exists a gap

你需要一股力量 將你拉起越過那一條間隙，

between you and something unknown.

而那股意想不到的力量就是信任。

That unknown can be someone you've just met.

信任是難以捉摸的概念，

It can be a place you've never been to.

但我們必須有信任才可活出人生。

It can be something you've never tried before.

當我的子女說會在晚上關燈時， 我信任他們。

You got it?

我信任飛機機師安全地接載我過來。

OK. You can open your eyes now.

我們經常用到這個詞語，

For you to leap from a place of certainty,

卻沒有常常思考它真正的涵義，

to take a chance on that someone or something unknown,

也沒有思考它如何 在人生的不同情境活出來。

you need a force to pull you over the gap,

其實信任的定義數以百計，

and that remarkable force is trust.

當中大多數都可簡化為

Trust is an elusive concept,

某種對事情順利或然率的風險評估。

and yet we depend on it for our lives to function.

但我不喜歡這樣對信任所下的定義，

I trust my children

因為這使信任聽起來 理性且可以預測；

when they say they're going to turn the lights out at night.

這樣的定義也捕捉不到人的本質，

I trusted the pilot who flew me here to keep me safe.

捕捉不到信任可以讓我們做到的事，

It's a word we use a lot,

以及信任如何讓我們能夠 與其他人聯繫起來。

without always thinking about what it really means

因此我對信任所下的定義有些不同，

and how it works in different contexts of our lives.

我把信任定義為與未知的事物 建立起充滿信心的關係。

There are, in fact, hundreds of definitions of trust,

當你透過這塊鏡片看待信任，

and most can be reduced to some kind of risk assessment

才能夠解釋 為何信任有一種特別的能力

of how likely it is that things will go right.

讓我們應付不確定的事物，

But I don't like this definition of trust,

讓我們信任陌生人，

because it makes trust sound rational and predictable,

讓我們持續往前走。

and it doesn't really get to the human essence

人類進行信任大躍進時 表現非常出色。

of what it enables us to do

你還記得第一次 將信用卡資料輸入到網站上嗎？

and how it empowers us

那就是信任大躍進。

to connect with other people.

我還清楚記得曾經告訴父親，

So I define trust a little differently.

我想在 eBay 上買一台 海軍藍色的二手寶獅汽車，

I define trust as a confident relationship to the unknown.

我父親直接點出 賣家的名字叫做「隱形巫師」，

Now, when you view trust through this lens,

所以不應該跟他買車。

it starts to explain why it has the unique capacity

（笑聲）

to enable us to cope with uncertainty,

我專注研究科技如何轉變

to place our faith in strangers,

社會凝聚力和人與人之間的信任，

to keep moving forward.

這個研究領域非常地吸引人，

Human beings are remarkable

因為這領域還有很多 我們未知的事物。

at taking trust leaps.

譬如，數位環境中的信任感 是否存在男女之別？

Do you remember the first time you put your credit card details

我們面對面建立信任的方式 同樣適用在網路上嗎？

into a website?

信任可以移轉嗎﹖

That's a trust leap.

如果你信任在 Tinder 上找到伴侶，

I distinctly remember telling my dad

那麼會否更傾向信任 在 BlaBlaCar 上找到人共乘嗎？

that I wanted to buy a navy blue secondhand Peugeot on eBay,

研究數百個網路和市場的結果顯示，

and he rightfully pointed out

大家都會遵循一個共同模式，

that the seller's name was "Invisible Wizard"

我稱之為「爬上信任層疊」。

and that this probably was not such a good idea.

就讓我用 BlaBlaCar 作例子 去生動地形容這概念。

(Laughter)

在第一個層次，你要信任這個想法。

So my work, my research focuses on how technology

你必須要信任 共乘這個想法是安全且值得一試。

is transforming the social glue of society,

第二個層次關乎對這個平台的信心，

trust between people,

相信 BlaBlaCar 會在 發生狀況時幫助你。

and it's a fascinating area to study,

第三個層次是用一點一點的資訊

because there's still so much we do not know.

決定另一個人是否值得信任。

For instance, do men and women trust differently in digital environments?

當我們第一次爬上信任層疊，

Does the way we build trust face-to-face translate online?

我們覺得奇怪，甚至感到危險，

Does trust transfer?

但我們最後都會相信 這些都是看似完全正常的想法。

So if you trust finding a mate on Tinder,

我們的行為往往轉變得很快。

are you more likely to trust finding a ride on BlaBlaCar?

也就是說，信任促使改變和創新。

But from studying hundreds of networks and marketplaces,

我對某個想法很感興趣， 我也希望你們一起來思考：

there is a common pattern that people follow,

我們可否透過信任這鏡片更清楚知道

and I call it "climbing the trust stack."

個人和社會層面的主要轉折和轉變。

Let me use BlaBlaCar as an example to bring it to life.

原來信任在整個人類歷史上

On the first level,

只有三個顯著的進化階段：

you have to trust the idea.

本地屬性、體制屬性，

So you have to trust

以及我們即將進入的分配屬性階段。

the idea of ride-sharing is safe and worth trying.

在 19 世紀中葉前的 一段漫長時間，

The second level is about having confidence in the platform,

信任是圍繞着緊密關係而建立。

that BlaBlaCar will help you if something goes wrong.

假設我跟前五排的觀眾

And the third level is about using little bits of information

一起住在村莊裡，彼此認識，

to decide whether the other person is trustworthy.

並假設我要借錢。

Now, the first time we climb the trust stack,

剛剛睜眼的先生可能會借錢給我，

it feels weird, even risky,

如果我沒有還他錢， 大家都會知道我信不過，

but we get to a point where these ideas seem totally normal.

我的名聲就臭掉了， 以後你也不會想要跟我做生意。

Our behaviors transform,

信任大都具有本地屬性， 以問責為基礎。

often relatively quickly.

在 19 世紀中葉， 社會經歷了巨大的轉變。

In other words, trust enables change and innovation.

大家搬遷到倫敦或舊金山等 快速發展的城市，

So an idea that intrigued me, and I'd like you to consider,

在個人層次上不認識我們的大集團

is whether we can better understand

取代了本地銀行家。

major waves of disruption and change in individuals in society

我們開始信任權力機關的黑箱體制，

through the lens of trust.

例如法律合同、監管規則和保險，

Well, it turns out that trust has only evolved

較少直接信任其他人。

in three significant chapters throughout the course of human history:

信任變成具有體制屬性， 以委託為基礎。

local, institutional

對體制及很多公司品牌的信任

and what we're now entering, distributed.

眾所周知已經並將會持續下滑。

So for a long time,

我經常對重大的 破壞信任行為感到驚訝：

until the mid-1800s,

新聞集團電話竊聽案；

trust was built around tight-knit relationships.

福斯汽車廢氣排放醜聞；

So say I lived in a village

鋪天蓋地的天主教教會性侵案；

with the first five rows of this audience,

巨大的金融危機後只有 一個卑鄙小銀行家入獄；

and we all knew one another,

或者最近的巴拿馬文件

and say I wanted to borrow money.

揭示富人如何利用離岸公司避稅。

The man who had his eyes wide open, he might lend it to me,

使我感到無比驚訝的是，

and if I didn't pay him back,

當我們之間的信任被打破後，

you'd all know I was dodgy.

為何領袖認為誠懇道歉是如此艱難﹖

I would get a bad reputation,

各位大可以總結， 對體制的信任失效，

and you would refuse to do business with me in the future.

是因為我們對不誠實精英的 恣意妄為忍無可忍，

Trust was mostly local and accountability-based.

但現在發生的事所涉及的層面，

In the mid-19th century,

並非不斷質疑 體制規模和結構所能觸及。

society went through a tremendous amount of change.

我們開始明白到，

People moved to fast-growing cities such as London and San Francisco,

對體制的信任不是為數位時代而設。

and a local banker here was replaced by large corporations

建立、經營、失去及修補 信任感的常規—

that didn't know us as individuals.

無論是對品牌、領袖 或整個體系的信任─正被顛覆。

We started to place our trust

這令人既興奮也害怕，

into black box systems of authority,

因為這使我們重新思考

things like legal contracts and regulation and insurance,

跟顧客、僱員甚至愛人的信任 是如何建立和摧毀。

and less trust directly in other people.

日前我與一間國際頂尖飯店品牌的 執行長對談，

Trust became institutional and commission-based.

正如一般情況， 我們聊到 Airbnb 這個話題。

It's widely talked about how trust in institutions and many corporate brands

他向我承認難以理解 Airbnb 的成功。

has been steadily declining and continues to do so.

他難以理解

I am constantly stunned by major breaches of trust:

一間依靠陌生人願意互相信任的公司

the News Corp phone hacking,

竟可以在 191 個國家運作如此良好。

the Volkswagen emissions scandal,

我跟他說我有事情要自白，

the widespread abuse in the Catholic Church,

他就用很奇怪的眼光看著我，

the fact that only one measly banker

然後我說— 我相信很多人都會這樣做─

went to jail after the great financial crisis,

我在飯店用完毛巾都懶得掛起來，

or more recently the Panama Papers

但我身為 Airbnb 的顧客 卻永遠不會這樣做，

that revealed how the rich can exploit offshore tax regimes.

為什麼當 Airbnb 的顧客 永遠不會這樣做，

And the thing that really surprises me

是因為顧客知道房東會給他們評分，

is why do leaders find it so hard

這些評分有可能影響到 他們日後能否進行交易。

to apologize, I mean sincerely apologize,

這簡單的刻畫出線上的信任感 將會如何改變我們現實世界的行為，

when our trust is broken?

使我們以從未想像過的方式 變得更有責任感。

It would be easy to conclude that institutional trust isn't working

我並非要說我們不需要飯店 或是傳統形式的權威。

because we are fed up

但我們無法否認，

with the sheer audacity of dishonest elites,

信任在社會流通的方式已經改變了，

but what's happening now

所創造出的巨大轉變，

runs deeper than the rampant questioning of the size and structure of institutions.

就是由體制屬性信任 所界定的 20 世紀

We're starting to realize

轉變為分配屬性信任 所推動的 21 世紀。

that institutional trust

信任的流向不再是由上往下。

wasn't designed for the digital age.

它逐漸被鬆綁，流向也被倒轉過來。

Conventions of how trust is built,

它不再是模糊或呈線性。

managed, lost and repaired --

構成信任的新方式逐漸形成，

in brands, leaders and entire systems --

其本質回歸到人際分配模式，

is being turned upside down.

以問責為基礎。

Now, this is exciting,

隨着區塊鍊 這種支撐比特幣的分帳技術冒起，

but it's frightening,

轉變只會越來越快。

because it forces many of us to have to rethink

老實說，理解區塊鏈如何運作

how trust is built and destroyed with our customers, with our employees,

可令人頭昏腦脹。

even our loved ones.

其中一個原因是當中包含的步驟

The other day, I was talking to the CEO of a leading international hotel brand,

有很多非常複雜且名稱難懂的概念。

and as is often the case, we got onto the topic of Airbnb.

我說的是加密演算法和雜湊函數，

And he admitted to me that he was perplexed by their success.

以及驗證交易、被稱為礦工的人，

He was perplexed at how a company

這一切都是由一位或多位

that depends on the willingness of strangers to trust one another

稱作「中本聰」的神秘人物 所創造出來。

could work so well across 191 countries.

這才是從未發生過的 超大型信任大躍進。

So I said to him that I had a confession to make,

（掌聲）

and he looked at me a bit strangely,

讓我們試著想像，

and I said --

《經濟學人》意味深長地將區塊鍊技術

and I'm sure many of you do this as well --

形容為「確保萬物的巨大鎖鏈」。

I don't always bother to hang my towels up

用最簡單的方式形容， 就是把區塊鏈想像成試算表，

when I'm finished in the hotel,

每個格子填滿著資產。

but I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb.

這些資產可以是財產契據。

And the reason why I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb

可以是股票交易。

is because guests know that they'll be rated by hosts,

可以是歌曲版權等創意資產。

and that those ratings are likely to impact their ability

每次資產

to transact in the future.

從記錄的一處移至另一處時，

It's a simple illustration of how online trust will change our behaviors

資產移轉就會被標記時間， 在區塊鏈上被公開記錄下來。

in the real world,

就是這麼簡單的事情。

make us more accountable

所以區塊鏈真正的意義

in ways we cannot yet even imagine.

就是移除對任何第三方的需求。

I am not saying we do not need hotels

例如律師和非政府授信的中介人，

or traditional forms of authority.

讓交易更加方便。

But what we cannot deny

讓我們回到信任層疊，

is that the way trust flows through society is changing,

你還是要信任這樣的想法， 你也要信任這樣的平台，

and it's creating this big shift

但你不需要以傳統的方式信任別人。

away from the 20th century

這意義巨大，

that was defined by institutional trust

就像互聯網打開了 通往資訊共享世代的大門，

towards the 21st century

區塊鍊將會以全球規模 徹底改變信任感。

that will be fueled by distributed trust.

現在我等到快要結束 才打算談到 Uber，

Trust is no longer top-down.

因為我知道這是一個非常具爭議性 而且廣泛被過度使用的例子，

It's being unbundled and inverted.

但當我們談論信任的新時代， 這就是很棒的個案。

It's no longer opaque and linear.

我們會看到具分配屬性的信任 被濫用的個案。

A new recipe for trust is emerging

我們已見識過，而且可以相當離譜。

that once again is distributed amongst people

我不驚訝於全球計程車協會抗議，

and is accountability-based.

聲稱 Uber 不安全而要求政府取締它，

And this shift is only going to accelerate

在抗議發生的那天，我剛好在倫敦，

with the emergence of the blockchain,

剛好注意到由英國商務大臣 夏國賢發出的一條推特。

the innovative ledger technology underpinning Bitcoin.

他寫道：

Now let's be honest,

「有沒有人知道大家在談論的 #Uber 應用程式詳細資訊？

getting our heads around the way blockchain works

（笑聲）

is mind-blowing.

我到今天才知道耶。」

And one of the reasons why is it involves processing

現在計程車協會

some pretty complicated concepts

合理化信任層疊的第一層。

with terrible names.

他們合理化自己試圖要消滅的想法，

I mean, cryptographic algorithms and hash functions,

Uber 的註冊人數 在 24 小時內增加了 8.5 倍。

and people called miners, who verify transactions --