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  • Let's talk about trust.

    讓我們來談談信任。

  • We all know trust is fundamental,

    我們都知道信任是萬物之本,

  • but when it comes to trusting people,

    但當談及人跟人之間的信任時,

  • something profound is happening.

    有些意味深遠的事情便發生了。

  • Please raise your hand

    如果各位曾經是 Airbnb 的 房東或房客的話,請舉手。

  • if you have ever been a host or a guest on Airbnb.

    哇!很多人。

  • Wow. That's a lot of you.

    誰有比特幣?

  • Who owns Bitcoin?

    也是非常多人!

  • Still a lot of you. OK.

    那麼如果你曾使用 Tinder 幫助你找到對象的話,也請舉手。

  • And please raise your hand if you've ever used Tinder

    (笑聲)

  • to help you find a mate.

    真的很難算有幾個人, 因為好像你們手都舉得很低。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • This one's really hard to count because you're kind of going like this.

    這些例子都顯示出科技創造的新機制

  • (Laughter)

    讓我們信任陌生的人、企業和想法。

  • These are all examples of how technology

    與此同時,

  • is creating new mechanisms

    對制度的信任,

  • that are enabling us to trust unknown people, companies and ideas.

    對銀行、政府 甚至教會的信任正在瓦解。

  • And yet at the same time,

    所以,發生了什麼事? 你現在還信任誰?

  • trust in institutions --

    我們從法國的一個平台開始談。

  • banks, governments and even churches --

    這其實是一間名字聽起來 有點搞笑的公司,

  • is collapsing.

    叫做「BlaBlaCar」。

  • So what's happening here,

    這個平台

  • and who do you trust?

    為想要一起分享長途旅行的 司機和乘客進行配對。

  • Let's start in France with a platform -- with a company, I should say --

    已經完成的路途平均 320 公里。

  • with a rather funny-sounding name,

    所以大家最好明智地選擇旅伴。

  • BlaBlaCar.

    社交媒體帳戶簡介和評論 幫助人們做選擇。

  • It's a platform that matches drivers and passengers

    你可以知道他是否抽菸, 你可以知道他喜歡的音樂類型,

  • who want to share long-distance journeys together.

    你可以知道他們會否帶著愛犬出遊。

  • The average ride taken is 320 kilometers.

    但其實最關鍵的社會標識符

  • So it's a good idea to choose your fellow travelers wisely.

    卻是你在車裡會說多少話。

  • Social profiles and reviews help people make a choice.

    (笑聲)

  • You can see if someone's a smoker, you can see what kind of music they like,

    Bla 代表話不多,

  • you can see if they're going to bring their dog along for the ride.

    Bla Bla 表示你們想來點閒聊,

  • But it turns out that the key social identifier

    Bla bla Bla 則表示倫敦到巴黎的 整段路程你們都沒完沒了的聊。

  • is how much you're going to talk in the car.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    這個想法竟然奏效,實在出人意表,

  • Bla, not a lot,

    因為它違反我們當中大部分 自小被教導的道理:

  • bla bla, you want a nice bit of chitchat,

    永遠不要進到陌生人的車裡。

  • and bla bla bla, you're not going to stop talking the entire way

    然而 BlaBlaCar 的每月載客量 已經超過四百萬人。

  • from London to Paris.

    具體地說,這比歐洲之星 和捷藍航空的載客量還多。

  • (Laughter)

    BlaBlaCar 絕佳體現出

  • It's remarkable, right, that this idea works at all,

    科技如何讓全球數百萬人 改弦易轍互相信任。

  • because it's counter to the lesson most of us were taught as a child:

    信任大躍進在於我們承擔風險,

  • never get in a car with a stranger.

    做點全新或跟以前做法不同的事情。

  • And yet, BlaBlaCar transports more than four million people

    讓我們一起想像這是甚麼回事。

  • every single month.

    我想請你們閉上眼睛。

  • To put that in context, that's more passengers

    那邊有個人張開眼睛看著我,

  • than the Eurostar or JetBlue airlines carry.

    站在這紅色大圓圈上的我都看到了,

  • BlaBlaCar is a beautiful illustration of how technology is enabling

    所以請你們閉上眼睛。

  • millions of people across the world to take a trust leap.

    (笑聲)(拍手)

  • A trust leap happens when we take the risk to do something new or different

    我會與你們一起想像。

  • to the way that we've always done it.

    我要你們想像和某個 不熟悉的事物之間有一條間隙。

  • Let's try to visualize this together.

    這個不熟悉的事物可能是你剛遇到的人。

  • OK. I want you to close your eyes.

    這可以是你不曾去過的地方。

  • There is a man staring at me with his eyes wide open.

    這可以是你不曾嘗試過的事物。

  • I'm on this big red circle. I can see.

    這樣懂嗎?

  • So close your eyes.

    好的,你們可以張開眼睛了。

  • (Laughter) (Applause)

    要你們從明確的地方大跳躍出去,

  • I'll do it with you.

    嘗試跟不熟悉的人和事一起,

  • And I want you to imagine there exists a gap

    你需要一股力量 將你拉起越過那一條間隙,

  • between you and something unknown.

    而那股意想不到的力量就是信任。

  • That unknown can be someone you've just met.

    信任是難以捉摸的概念,

  • It can be a place you've never been to.

    但我們必須有信任才可活出人生。

  • It can be something you've never tried before.

    當我的子女說會在晚上關燈時, 我信任他們。

  • You got it?

    我信任飛機機師安全地接載我過來。

  • OK. You can open your eyes now.

    我們經常用到這個詞語,

  • For you to leap from a place of certainty,

    卻沒有常常思考它真正的涵義,

  • to take a chance on that someone or something unknown,

    也沒有思考它如何 在人生的不同情境活出來。

  • you need a force to pull you over the gap,

    其實信任的定義數以百計,

  • and that remarkable force is trust.

    當中大多數都可簡化為

  • Trust is an elusive concept,

    某種對事情順利或然率的風險評估。

  • and yet we depend on it for our lives to function.

    但我不喜歡這樣對信任所下的定義,

  • I trust my children

    因為這使信任聽起來 理性且可以預測;

  • when they say they're going to turn the lights out at night.

    這樣的定義也捕捉不到人的本質,

  • I trusted the pilot who flew me here to keep me safe.

    捕捉不到信任可以讓我們做到的事,

  • It's a word we use a lot,

    以及信任如何讓我們能夠 與其他人聯繫起來。

  • without always thinking about what it really means

    因此我對信任所下的定義有些不同,

  • and how it works in different contexts of our lives.

    我把信任定義為與未知的事物 建立起充滿信心的關係。

  • There are, in fact, hundreds of definitions of trust,

    當你透過這塊鏡片看待信任,

  • and most can be reduced to some kind of risk assessment

    才能夠解釋 為何信任有一種特別的能力

  • of how likely it is that things will go right.

    讓我們應付不確定的事物,

  • But I don't like this definition of trust,

    讓我們信任陌生人,

  • because it makes trust sound rational and predictable,

    讓我們持續往前走。

  • and it doesn't really get to the human essence

    人類進行信任大躍進時 表現非常出色。

  • of what it enables us to do

    你還記得第一次 將信用卡資料輸入到網站上嗎?

  • and how it empowers us

    那就是信任大躍進。

  • to connect with other people.

    我還清楚記得曾經告訴父親,

  • So I define trust a little differently.

    我想在 eBay 上買一台 海軍藍色的二手寶獅汽車,

  • I define trust as a confident relationship to the unknown.

    我父親直接點出 賣家的名字叫做「隱形巫師」,

  • Now, when you view trust through this lens,

    所以不應該跟他買車。

  • it starts to explain why it has the unique capacity

    (笑聲)

  • to enable us to cope with uncertainty,

    我專注研究科技如何轉變

  • to place our faith in strangers,

    社會凝聚力和人與人之間的信任,

  • to keep moving forward.

    這個研究領域非常地吸引人,

  • Human beings are remarkable

    因為這領域還有很多 我們未知的事物。

  • at taking trust leaps.

    譬如,數位環境中的信任感 是否存在男女之別?

  • Do you remember the first time you put your credit card details

    我們面對面建立信任的方式 同樣適用在網路上嗎?

  • into a website?

    信任可以移轉嗎﹖

  • That's a trust leap.

    如果你信任在 Tinder 上找到伴侶,

  • I distinctly remember telling my dad

    那麼會否更傾向信任 在 BlaBlaCar 上找到人共乘嗎?

  • that I wanted to buy a navy blue secondhand Peugeot on eBay,

    研究數百個網路和市場的結果顯示,

  • and he rightfully pointed out

    大家都會遵循一個共同模式,

  • that the seller's name was "Invisible Wizard"

    我稱之為「爬上信任層疊」。

  • and that this probably was not such a good idea.

    就讓我用 BlaBlaCar 作例子 去生動地形容這概念。

  • (Laughter)

    在第一個層次,你要信任這個想法。

  • So my work, my research focuses on how technology

    你必須要信任 共乘這個想法是安全且值得一試。

  • is transforming the social glue of society,

    第二個層次關乎對這個平台的信心,

  • trust between people,

    相信 BlaBlaCar 會在 發生狀況時幫助你。

  • and it's a fascinating area to study,

    第三個層次是用一點一點的資訊

  • because there's still so much we do not know.

    決定另一個人是否值得信任。

  • For instance, do men and women trust differently in digital environments?

    當我們第一次爬上信任層疊,

  • Does the way we build trust face-to-face translate online?

    我們覺得奇怪,甚至感到危險,

  • Does trust transfer?

    但我們最後都會相信 這些都是看似完全正常的想法。

  • So if you trust finding a mate on Tinder,

    我們的行為往往轉變得很快。

  • are you more likely to trust finding a ride on BlaBlaCar?

    也就是說,信任促使改變和創新。

  • But from studying hundreds of networks and marketplaces,

    我對某個想法很感興趣, 我也希望你們一起來思考:

  • there is a common pattern that people follow,

    我們可否透過信任這鏡片更清楚知道

  • and I call it "climbing the trust stack."

    個人和社會層面的主要轉折和轉變。

  • Let me use BlaBlaCar as an example to bring it to life.

    原來信任在整個人類歷史上

  • On the first level,

    只有三個顯著的進化階段:

  • you have to trust the idea.

    本地屬性、體制屬性,

  • So you have to trust

    以及我們即將進入的分配屬性階段。

  • the idea of ride-sharing is safe and worth trying.

    在 19 世紀中葉前的 一段漫長時間,

  • The second level is about having confidence in the platform,

    信任是圍繞着緊密關係而建立。

  • that BlaBlaCar will help you if something goes wrong.

    假設我跟前五排的觀眾

  • And the third level is about using little bits of information

    一起住在村莊裡,彼此認識,

  • to decide whether the other person is trustworthy.

    並假設我要借錢。

  • Now, the first time we climb the trust stack,

    剛剛睜眼的先生可能會借錢給我,

  • it feels weird, even risky,

    如果我沒有還他錢, 大家都會知道我信不過,

  • but we get to a point where these ideas seem totally normal.

    我的名聲就臭掉了, 以後你也不會想要跟我做生意。

  • Our behaviors transform,

    信任大都具有本地屬性, 以問責為基礎。

  • often relatively quickly.

    在 19 世紀中葉, 社會經歷了巨大的轉變。

  • In other words, trust enables change and innovation.

    大家搬遷到倫敦或舊金山等 快速發展的城市,

  • So an idea that intrigued me, and I'd like you to consider,

    在個人層次上不認識我們的大集團

  • is whether we can better understand

    取代了本地銀行家。

  • major waves of disruption and change in individuals in society

    我們開始信任權力機關的黑箱體制,

  • through the lens of trust.

    例如法律合同、監管規則和保險,

  • Well, it turns out that trust has only evolved

    較少直接信任其他人。

  • in three significant chapters throughout the course of human history:

    信任變成具有體制屬性, 以委託為基礎。

  • local, institutional

    對體制及很多公司品牌的信任

  • and what we're now entering, distributed.

    眾所周知已經並將會持續下滑。

  • So for a long time,

    我經常對重大的 破壞信任行為感到驚訝:

  • until the mid-1800s,

    新聞集團電話竊聽案;

  • trust was built around tight-knit relationships.

    福斯汽車廢氣排放醜聞;

  • So say I lived in a village

    鋪天蓋地的天主教教會性侵案;

  • with the first five rows of this audience,

    巨大的金融危機後只有 一個卑鄙小銀行家入獄;

  • and we all knew one another,

    或者最近的巴拿馬文件

  • and say I wanted to borrow money.

    揭示富人如何利用離岸公司避稅。

  • The man who had his eyes wide open, he might lend it to me,

    使我感到無比驚訝的是,

  • and if I didn't pay him back,

    當我們之間的信任被打破後,

  • you'd all know I was dodgy.

    為何領袖認為誠懇道歉是如此艱難﹖

  • I would get a bad reputation,

    各位大可以總結, 對體制的信任失效,

  • and you would refuse to do business with me in the future.

    是因為我們對不誠實精英的 恣意妄為忍無可忍,

  • Trust was mostly local and accountability-based.

    但現在發生的事所涉及的層面,

  • In the mid-19th century,

    並非不斷質疑 體制規模和結構所能觸及。

  • society went through a tremendous amount of change.

    我們開始明白到,

  • People moved to fast-growing cities such as London and San Francisco,

    對體制的信任不是為數位時代而設。

  • and a local banker here was replaced by large corporations

    建立、經營、失去及修補 信任感的常規—

  • that didn't know us as individuals.

    無論是對品牌、領袖 或整個體系的信任─正被顛覆。

  • We started to place our trust

    這令人既興奮也害怕,

  • into black box systems of authority,

    因為這使我們重新思考

  • things like legal contracts and regulation and insurance,

    跟顧客、僱員甚至愛人的信任 是如何建立和摧毀。

  • and less trust directly in other people.

    日前我與一間國際頂尖飯店品牌的 執行長對談,

  • Trust became institutional and commission-based.

    正如一般情況, 我們聊到 Airbnb 這個話題。

  • It's widely talked about how trust in institutions and many corporate brands

    他向我承認難以理解 Airbnb 的成功。

  • has been steadily declining and continues to do so.

    他難以理解

  • I am constantly stunned by major breaches of trust:

    一間依靠陌生人願意互相信任的公司

  • the News Corp phone hacking,

    竟可以在 191 個國家運作如此良好。

  • the Volkswagen emissions scandal,

    我跟他說我有事情要自白,

  • the widespread abuse in the Catholic Church,

    他就用很奇怪的眼光看著我,

  • the fact that only one measly banker

    然後我說— 我相信很多人都會這樣做─

  • went to jail after the great financial crisis,

    我在飯店用完毛巾都懶得掛起來,

  • or more recently the Panama Papers

    但我身為 Airbnb 的顧客 卻永遠不會這樣做,

  • that revealed how the rich can exploit offshore tax regimes.

    為什麼當 Airbnb 的顧客 永遠不會這樣做,

  • And the thing that really surprises me

    是因為顧客知道房東會給他們評分,

  • is why do leaders find it so hard

    這些評分有可能影響到 他們日後能否進行交易。

  • to apologize, I mean sincerely apologize,

    這簡單的刻畫出線上的信任感 將會如何改變我們現實世界的行為,

  • when our trust is broken?

    使我們以從未想像過的方式 變得更有責任感。

  • It would be easy to conclude that institutional trust isn't working

    我並非要說我們不需要飯店 或是傳統形式的權威。

  • because we are fed up

    但我們無法否認,

  • with the sheer audacity of dishonest elites,

    信任在社會流通的方式已經改變了,

  • but what's happening now

    所創造出的巨大轉變,

  • runs deeper than the rampant questioning of the size and structure of institutions.

    就是由體制屬性信任 所界定的 20 世紀

  • We're starting to realize

    轉變為分配屬性信任 所推動的 21 世紀。

  • that institutional trust

    信任的流向不再是由上往下。

  • wasn't designed for the digital age.

    它逐漸被鬆綁,流向也被倒轉過來。

  • Conventions of how trust is built,

    它不再是模糊或呈線性。

  • managed, lost and repaired --

    構成信任的新方式逐漸形成,

  • in brands, leaders and entire systems --

    其本質回歸到人際分配模式,

  • is being turned upside down.

    以問責為基礎。

  • Now, this is exciting,

    隨着區塊鍊 這種支撐比特幣的分帳技術冒起,

  • but it's frightening,

    轉變只會越來越快。

  • because it forces many of us to have to rethink

    老實說,理解區塊鏈如何運作

  • how trust is built and destroyed with our customers, with our employees,

    可令人頭昏腦脹。

  • even our loved ones.

    其中一個原因是當中包含的步驟

  • The other day, I was talking to the CEO of a leading international hotel brand,

    有很多非常複雜且名稱難懂的概念。

  • and as is often the case, we got onto the topic of Airbnb.

    我說的是加密演算法和雜湊函數,

  • And he admitted to me that he was perplexed by their success.

    以及驗證交易、被稱為礦工的人,

  • He was perplexed at how a company

    這一切都是由一位或多位

  • that depends on the willingness of strangers to trust one another

    稱作「中本聰」的神秘人物 所創造出來。

  • could work so well across 191 countries.

    這才是從未發生過的 超大型信任大躍進。

  • So I said to him that I had a confession to make,

    (掌聲)

  • and he looked at me a bit strangely,

    讓我們試著想像,

  • and I said --

    《經濟學人》意味深長地將區塊鍊技術

  • and I'm sure many of you do this as well --

    形容為「確保萬物的巨大鎖鏈」。

  • I don't always bother to hang my towels up

    用最簡單的方式形容, 就是把區塊鏈想像成試算表,

  • when I'm finished in the hotel,

    每個格子填滿著資產。

  • but I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb.

    這些資產可以是財產契據。

  • And the reason why I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb

    可以是股票交易。

  • is because guests know that they'll be rated by hosts,

    可以是歌曲版權等創意資產。

  • and that those ratings are likely to impact their ability

    每次資產

  • to transact in the future.

    從記錄的一處移至另一處時,

  • It's a simple illustration of how online trust will change our behaviors

    資產移轉就會被標記時間, 在區塊鏈上被公開記錄下來。

  • in the real world,

    就是這麼簡單的事情。

  • make us more accountable

    所以區塊鏈真正的意義

  • in ways we cannot yet even imagine.

    就是移除對任何第三方的需求。

  • I am not saying we do not need hotels

    例如律師和非政府授信的中介人,

  • or traditional forms of authority.

    讓交易更加方便。

  • But what we cannot deny

    讓我們回到信任層疊,

  • is that the way trust flows through society is changing,

    你還是要信任這樣的想法, 你也要信任這樣的平台,

  • and it's creating this big shift

    但你不需要以傳統的方式信任別人。

  • away from the 20th century

    這意義巨大,

  • that was defined by institutional trust

    就像互聯網打開了 通往資訊共享世代的大門,

  • towards the 21st century

    區塊鍊將會以全球規模 徹底改變信任感。

  • that will be fueled by distributed trust.

    現在我等到快要結束 才打算談到 Uber,

  • Trust is no longer top-down.

    因為我知道這是一個非常具爭議性 而且廣泛被過度使用的例子,

  • It's being unbundled and inverted.

    但當我們談論信任的新時代, 這就是很棒的個案。

  • It's no longer opaque and linear.

    我們會看到具分配屬性的信任 被濫用的個案。

  • A new recipe for trust is emerging

    我們已見識過,而且可以相當離譜。

  • that once again is distributed amongst people

    我不驚訝於全球計程車協會抗議,

  • and is accountability-based.

    聲稱 Uber 不安全而要求政府取締它,

  • And this shift is only going to accelerate

    在抗議發生的那天,我剛好在倫敦,

  • with the emergence of the blockchain,

    剛好注意到由英國商務大臣 夏國賢發出的一條推特。

  • the innovative ledger technology underpinning Bitcoin.

    他寫道:

  • Now let's be honest,

    「有沒有人知道大家在談論的 #Uber 應用程式詳細資訊?

  • getting our heads around the way blockchain works

    (笑聲)

  • is mind-blowing.

    我到今天才知道耶。」

  • And one of the reasons why is it involves processing

    現在計程車協會

  • some pretty complicated concepts

    合理化信任層疊的第一層。

  • with terrible names.

    他們合理化自己試圖要消滅的想法,

  • I mean, cryptographic algorithms and hash functions,

    Uber 的註冊人數 在 24 小時內增加了 8.5 倍。

  • and people called miners, who verify transactions --

    這強而有力地證明

  • all that was created by this mysterious person

    當圍繞一種行為 或是整個行業的信任移轉時,

  • or persons called Satoshi Nakamoto.

    情況就會無法逆轉。

  • Now, that is a massive trust leap that hasn't happened yet.

    每天有五百萬人 進行信任大躍進搭乘 Uber。

  • (Applause)

    在中國,「滴滴出行」共乘平台 每天就錄得 1,100 萬次共乘。

  • But let's try to imagine this.

    即是每秒 127 次共乘, 顯示這是跨文化的現象。

  • So "The Economist" eloquently described the blockchain

    最棒的是,司機和乘客都表示,