the city of Apatzingán

2010 年十二月，

in the coastal state of Michoacán, in Mexico,

在墨西哥沿岸米卻肯州

awoke to gunfire.

城市阿帕欽甘

For two straight days,

被槍火吵醒。

the city became an open battlefield

連續兩日

between the federal forces

這城市變成了公開戰場，

and a well-organized group,

由聯邦力量

presumably from the local criminal organization,

和有組織的群體開戰，

La Familia Michoacana, or the Michoacán family.

極有可能是當地犯罪組織，

The citizens didn't only experience incessant gunfire

La Familia Michoacana，或者是米卻肯家族。

but also explosions

市民們不僅經歷了持續不斷的槍聲，

and burning trucks used as barricades across the city,

還有爆炸，

so truly like a battlefield.

整個城市裡燒著的貨車被用作路障

After these two days,

所以真的是一個戰場。

and during a particularly intense encounter,

這兩天後，

it was presumed that the leader of La Familia Michoacana,

在一次特別激烈的行動，

Nazario Moreno, was killed.

米卻肯家族的領袖

In response to this terrifying violence,

莫瑞諾相信被殺。

the mayor of Apatzingán

這可怕的暴力導致

decided to call the citizens to a march for peace.

阿帕欽甘的市長

The idea was to ask for a softer approach

召喚市民上街為和平遊行。

to criminal activity in the state.

理念是要尋找更柔和的途徑

And so, the day of the scheduled procession,

去打擊罪犯行動。

thousands of people showed up.

所以，在約定的日子，

As the mayor was preparing to deliver

幾千人上街。

the speech starting the march,

當市長準備

his team noticed

演說去開始遊行，

that, while half of the participants

他的團隊發覺

were appropriately dressed in white,

一半的參與者

and bearing banners asking for peace,

合宜的穿了白色

the other half was actually marching

和帶了橫額尋求和平，

in support of the criminal organization

另一半卻其實

and its now-presumed-defunct leader.

為犯罪組織

Shocked, the mayor decided to step aside

和已去世的領袖遊行。

rather than participate or lead a procession

市長感到震驚，與其參與或帶領一個

that was ostensibly in support of organized crime.

看起來會支持組織罪案的遊行，

And so his team stepped aside.

不如決定避開，

The two marches joined together,

所以他的團隊決定不插手。

and they continued their path

兩個遊行聯合了，

towards the state capital.

並繼續向

This story of horrific violence

州首都走去。

followed by a fumbled approach

這個故事，從暴力開始，

by federal and local authorities as they tried

接下來由聯邦和當地權威

to engage civil society,

試著摸索着，

who has been very well engaged by a criminal organization,

去和社會團體打交道，

is a perfect metaphor for what's happening in Mexico today,

即一個和罪案組織有密切關係的城市，

where we see that our current understanding

是對今天的墨西哥的完美的比喻，

of drug violence and what leads to it

我們現時對

is probably at the very least incomplete.

毒品暴力的理解，和導致的原因

If you decided to spend 30 minutes trying

或許非常不完整。

to figure out what's going on with drug violence in Mexico

如果你決定花 30 分鐘去

by, say, just researching online,

明白墨西哥的毒品暴力，

the first thing you would find out is that

就說從網上看吧，

while the laws state that all Mexican citizens are equal,

你會找到的第一件事是，

there are some that are more

儘管法律說明所有墨西哥人是平等的，

and there are some that are much less equal than others,

有些會比其他更高等，

because you will quickly find out

一些會比其他更低等，

that in the past six years

因為你會很快發現

anywhere between 60 and 100,000 people

在過去的六年，

have lost their lives in drug-related violence.

有 60 到 10 萬這樣的人數

To put these numbers in perspective,

在與毒品有關的暴力中喪失生命。

this is eight times larger than the number of casualties

用不同角度看這些數字，

in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined.

這是比在伊拉克和阿富汗

It's also shockingly close to the number of people

戰爭中傷亡人數的八倍；

who have died in the Syrian civil war,

這數字也很接近

which is an active civil war.

在敘利亞內戰死亡的人數，

This is happening just south of the border.

這還是個現行的內戰。

Now as you're reading, however,

這還只是發生在邊界南面的數字。

you will be maybe surprised that you will quickly

當你閱讀這些資料，

become numb to the numbers of deaths,

你可能會對這些死亡數字麻木，

because you will see that these are sort of abstract numbers

並對自己感到驚訝。

of faceless, nameless dead people.

因為，這些都是抽象的數字

Implicitly or explicitly, there is a narrative

死的都是寂寂無名的人，

that all the people who are dying

無論如何，

were somehow involved in the drug trade,

這些死了的人

and we infer this because they were either tortured

某程度上都和毒品交易有關，

or executed in a professional manner,

我們如此推斷因為他們不是被折磨，

or, most likely, both.

就是以專業方式被處決

And so clearly they were criminals

或者，兩樣都是。

because of the way they died.

因為他們死的方式，

And so the narrative is that somehow these people

他們顯然是罪犯。

got what they were deserved.

所以這些人某程度上

They were part of the bad guys.

得到應有的。

And that creates some form of comfort

他們是壞人。

for a lot of people.

這令很多人

However, while it's easier to think

感到安慰。

of us, the citizens, the police, the army,

雖然這樣想比較容易；

as the good guys, and them, the narcos,

視我們這些市民，警察，軍隊

the carteles, as the bad guys,

為好人，而那些毒販，

if you think about it,

那些毒梟，為壞人。

the latter are only providing a service to the former.

可是認真想，

Whether we like it or not,

後者只是為前者服務。

the U.S. is the largest market

無論我們喜歡與否，

for illegal substances in the world,

美國是世界上

accounting for more than half of global demand.

最大的毒品市場，

It shares thousands of miles of border with Mexico

佔全球需求的一半以上。

that is its only route of access from the South,

因為數千英里的邊境和墨西哥接壤，

and so, as the former dictator of Mexico, Porfirio Diaz,

而且是從南來的唯一路徑；

used to say, "Poor Mexico,

因此，作為墨西哥的前獨裁者， 波菲裡奧 · 迪亞斯，

so far from God and so close to the United States."

常說，"可憐的墨西哥，

The U.N. estimates that there are 55 million users

離神這麼遠，卻這麼接近美國。“

of illegal drugs in the United States.

聯合國估計美國有

Using very, very conservative assumptions,

五千五百萬個非法藥物的用者。

this yields a yearly drug market on the retail side

使用非常，非常保守的假設，

of anywhere between 30 and 150 billion dollars.

這會導致一個龐大的毒品市場

If we assume that the narcos only have access

甚至大至 300 到 1500 億美元。

to the wholesale part, which we know is false,

如果我們假設毒販只能

that still leaves you with yearly revenues

打通批發部分，當然我們知道這並不真實，

of anywhere between 15 billion and 60 billion dollars.

但這仍然會給他們

To put these numbers in perspective,

150 億和 600 億美元之間的利潤。

Microsoft has yearly revenues of 60 billion dollars.

另一角度看這些數字，

And it so happens that this is a product that,

微軟年收入為 600 億美金。

because of its nature, a business model

而毒品卻，

to address this market requires you

因為其性質，解決需求

to guarantee to your producers

需要一個特別的生意模式，

that their product will be reliably placed

要保證對生產商

in the markets where it is consumed.

他們的產品將會被放置

And the only way to do this, because it's illegal,

在可靠的市場。

is to have absolute control of the geographic corridors

因為這是非法的，唯一的辦法

that are used to transport drugs.

是要對地理有絕對掌握

Hence the violence.

一曲運送毒品。

If you look at a map of cartel influence and violence,

因此就有暴力。

you will see that it almost perfectly aligns

假如我們看看有關毒品業的地圖

with the most efficient routes of transportation

毒品行業的影響和暴力

from the south to the north.

與最有效的運輸路線差不多完全一樣

The only thing that the cartels are doing

從南向北。

is that they're trying to protect their business.

毒梟唯一在做的，

It's not only a multi-billion dollar market,

是他們要保護他們的業務。

but it's also a complex one.

它不只是有關幾十億元的市場，

For example, the coca plant is a fragile plant

它同樣十分複雜。

that can only grow in certain latitudes,

例如，古柯植物非常脆弱

and so it means that a business model

只能在某些緯度生長

to address this market requires you to have

這代表，為解決這樣的市場

decentralized, international production,

商業將包含

that by the way needs to have good quality control,

分散的、 國際的生產、

because people need a good high

順帶一提，必須有良好的品質控制，

that is not going to kill them

因為人們想感到吸毒後的高漲

and that is going to be delivered to them when they need it.

卻不會致命，

And so that means they need to secure

而藥物要被準確運送到。

production and quality control in the south,

所以他們要確保

and you need to ensure that you have

南方生產和品質控制，

efficient and effective distribution channels

同時需要

in the markets where these drugs are consumed.

高效率和有效的分銷管道

I urge you, but only a little bit,

去接觸這些市場。

because I don't want to get you in trouble,

我提議你，但只試一點點，

to just ask around and see how difficult it would be

因為我不想給你帶來麻煩，

to get whatever drug you want, wherever you want it,

就是去打聽一下在美國何時何地

whenever you want it, anywhere in the U.S.,

去問人在哪裡買你要的任何藥物

and some of you may be surprised to know

有多難。

that there are many dealers that offer a service

你們中某些可能會很驚訝去知道

where if you send them a text message,

有許多提供服務的轉銷商，

they guarantee delivery of the drug

假如你發短信給他們，

in 30 minutes or less.

他們能保證藥物

Think about this for a second.

在三十分鐘內被運到。

Think about the complexity

花時間想想。

of the distribution network that I just described.

想想我剛才說的

It's very difficult to reconcile this

分布網絡有多複雜。

with the image of faceless, ignorant goons

看起來這和無名的，

that are just shooting each other,

互相射殺的毒販

very difficult to reconcile.

很難扯上關係

Now, as a business professor, and as any business professor would tell you,

很難去想。

an effective organization requires

現在，作為一名商務教授， 而所有商務教授都會如此說，

an integrated strategy that includes

一個有效的組織要求

a good organizational structure, good incentives,

一項綜合的戰略，其中包括

a solid identity and good brand management.

良好的組織結構、 激勵機制，

This leads me to the second thing that you would learn

肯定的身分和良好的品牌管理。

in your 30-minute exploration of drug violence in Mexico.

所以在對墨西哥的三十分鐘探索，

Because you would quickly realize,

我們學到的第二件事，

and maybe be confused by the fact,

你很快會意識到，

that there are three organizations

甚至被混淆；

that are constantly named in the articles.

有三個組織的名字

You will hear about Los Zetas,

不停出現在文章上。

the Knights Templar, which is the new brand

洛斯哲塔斯，

for the Familia Michoacana that I spoke about at the beginning,

及新的品牌，聖殿騎士團

and the Sinaloa Federation.

由一開始時談及的米卻肯家族新創，

You will read that Los Zetas is this assortment

和錫納羅亞販毒集團。

of sociopaths that terrify the cities that they enter

你將讀到洛斯哲塔斯會做各式各樣

and they silence the press,

反社會的事，恐嚇他們進入的城市

and this is somewhat true, or mostly true.

然而媒體不會報道，

But this is the result of a very careful branding

這某程度上，或很大程度上是真的。

and business strategy.

但這是因為非常小心的管理

You see, Los Zetas is not just

和業務戰略。

this random assortment of individuals,

洛斯哲塔斯並不只是

but was actually created by another criminal organization, the Gulf Cartel,

隨機組合的人們，

that used to control the eastern corridor of Mexico.

而是由另一犯罪組織，海灣販毒集團創建，

When that corridor became contested, they decided

它曾經控制墨西哥的東岸走廊。

that they wanted to recruit

當那條走廊被人入侵，他們決定

a professional enforcement arm.

招聘

So they recruited Los Zetas:

一個專業執法部門。

an entire unit of elite paratroopers

所以他們招募洛斯哲塔斯：

from the Mexican Army.

即墨西哥軍隊裡

They were incredibly effective as enforcers for the Gulf Cartel,

整個單位的精銳傘兵。

so much so that at some point, they decided

他們為海灣販毒集團非常有效地執法。

to just take over the operations,

因此到了一定時候，他們決定

which is why I ask you to never keep tigers as pets,

接管行動。

because they grow up.

這正正反映，別養虎為患，

Because the Zetas organization was founded in treason,

因為他們長大了。

they lost some of the linkages to the production and distribution

因為洛斯哲塔斯是由叛變之下成立的，

in the most profitable markets like cocaine,

在最高利潤的市場，例如可卡因

but what they did have,

他們失去了一些對生產和分配的聯繫。

and this is again based on their military origin,

但他們有的，

was a perfectly structured chain of command

這又是基於其軍事的起源，

with a very clear hierarchy

是結構化的指揮鏈，

and a very clear promotion path that allowed them

非常清晰的層次結構，

to supervise and operate across many, many markets

非常清晰的晉升途徑，

very effectively,

非常有效地監管

which is the essence of what a chain of command seeks to do.

和操控很多市場，

And so because they didn't have access

這就是指揮鏈最根本的作用。

to the more profitable drug markets,

他們不能進入

this pushed them and gave them the opportunity

更賺錢的毒品市場，

to diversify into other forms of crime.

卻給了他們機會

That includes kidnapping, prostitution,

化成其他形式的犯罪。

local drug dealing and human trafficking,

這包括綁架、 賣淫、

including of migrants that go from the south to the U.S.

當地毒品交易和販賣人口，

So what they currently run is truly

包括從南邊到美國的移民。

and quite literally a franchise business.

所以他們正在運行的

They focus most of their recruiting on the army,

其實是專營業務。

and they very openly advertise for better salaries,

他們的招聘很多都是在軍隊，

better benefits, better promotion paths,

而他們會公開賣廣告：更好的薪水

not to mention much better food,

更多的福利，更多的晉升途徑，

than what the army can deliver.

還有比軍隊能夠提供的

The way they operate is that

更佳的食物。

when they arrive in a locality,

他們的運作的方式是，

they let people know that they are there,

當他們到達一個地方，

and they go to the most powerful local gang

他們會讓人們知道他們在那，

and they say, "I offer you

然後去當地最強的黑幫，

to be the local representative of the Zeta brand."

說：「我讓你

If they agree -- and you don't want to know

成為洛斯哲塔斯的地區性代表。」

what happens if they don't --

如果他們同意 — — 你不想知道

they train them and they supervise them

如果他們不同意怎麼辦，

on how to run the most efficient criminal operation

他們訓練他們，和他們監督他們

for that town, in exchange for royalties.

如何在當地運行最有效率的犯罪行動，

This kind of business model obviously depends

以換取特許權使用費。

entirely on having a very effective brand of fear,

這種業務模式顯然完全取決於

and so Los Zetas

對品牌的恐懼，

carefully stage acts of violence

洛斯哲塔斯如此

that are spectacular in nature,

仔細策劃的暴力行為，

especially when they arrive first in a city,

本質是如此的驚人，

but again, that's just a brand strategy.

尤其是當他們剛一個城市時。

I'm not saying they're not violent,

但同樣，這只是品牌戰略。

but what I am saying is that even though you will read

我不是說他們不暴力，

that they are the most violent of all,

但我的意思是，即使你讀到

when you count, when you do the body count,

他們是最暴力的幫派，

they're actually all the same.

但當點死亡人數時，

In contrast to them, the Knights Templar

其實跟其他都一樣。