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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    譯者: Marssi Draw 審譯者: Yi-Hsuan Wu

  • In this talk today, I want to present a different idea

    今天我要用不同的角度解釋

  • for why investing in early childhood education

    為何早期幼兒教育

  • makes sense as a public investment.

    算的上是一種公共投資

  • It's a different idea, because usually,

    這是一種不同的見解

  • when people talk about early childhood programs,

    因為通常談到幼兒教育

  • they talk about all the wonderful benefits for participants

    都只想到孩子們的好處及利益

  • in terms of former participants, in preschool,

    對於上過幼兒園的孩童來說

  • they have better K-12 test scores,

    他們從小到大的成績都特別優異

  • better adult earnings.

    長大後的薪水也較高

  • Now that's all very important,

    的確,這些都很重要

  • but what I want to talk about is what preschool does

    但是,我今天想談的

  • for state economies

    是幼兒教育對一個州的經濟影響

  • and for promoting state economic development.

    以及在經濟發展上的重要性

  • And that's actually crucial

    主要原因是

  • because if we're going to get increased investment

    如果我們想增加

  • in early childhood programs,

    幼兒教育的投資

  • we need to interest state governments in this.

    就必須讓州政府重視這件事情

  • The federal government has a lot on its plate,

    聯邦政府要處理很多事情

  • and state governments are going to have to step up.

    因此州政府應該站出來

  • So we have to appeal to them,

    我們要呼籲

  • the legislators in the state government,

    各州的立法機關

  • and turn to something they understand,

    用他們能夠理解的方式

  • that they have to promote the economic development

    請機關想方設法

  • of their state economy.

    促進該州的經濟發展

  • Now, by promoting economic development,

    現在,藉由促進經濟發展

  • I don't mean anything magical.

    這不是神話故事

  • All I mean is, is that early childhood education

    我想說的是,幼兒教育

  • can bring more and better jobs to a state

    能為該州帶來更多、更好的工作

  • and can thereby promote higher per capita earnings

    藉此提高

  • for the state's residents.

    該州居民的平均所得

  • Now, I think it's fair to say that when people think about

    我想大家都很清楚,當我們想到

  • state and local economic development,

    州與地方的經濟發展時

  • they don't generally think first about what they're doing

    沒有人會優先想到

  • about childcare and early childhood programs.

    兒童保育及教育

  • I know this. I've spent most of my career researching these programs.

    我了解,因為我終其一生在做這項研究

  • I've talked to a lot of directors

    和許多州政府的經濟發展部門主管

  • of state economic development agencies about these issues,

    及許多立法者

  • a lot of legislators about these issues.

    討論過這個議題

  • When legislators and others think about economic development,

    在大夥談到經濟發展時

  • what they first of all think about are business tax incentives,

    他們第一個想到的 就是稅費獎勵方案、

  • property tax abatements, job creation tax credits,

    財產稅減免、 創造工作職位稅務優惠...等等

  • you know, there are a million of these programs all over the place.

    有上百萬種這類的方案

  • So for example, states compete very vigorously

    舉例來說,州政府間競爭激烈

  • to attract new auto plants or expanded auto plants.

    為了吸引汽車廠進駐或是擴建

  • They hand out all kinds of business tax breaks.

    他們會提出各式各樣的減稅方案

  • Now, those programs can make sense

    如果這些方案真的能增加設廠點

  • if they in fact induce new location decisions,

    那麼一切都說得通

  • and the way they can make sense is,

    說得通的原因是

  • by creating more and better jobs,

    藉由增加更多、更好的工作機會

  • they raise employment rates, raise per capita earnings of state residents.

    提高了就業率及平均所得

  • So there is a benefit to state residents

    居民能因此獲得利益

  • that corresponds to the costs that they're paying

    他們繳稅給這些減稅方案

  • by paying for these business tax breaks.

    而能得到這個好處

  • My argument is essentially that early childhood programs

    我的論點是,幼兒教育

  • can do exactly the same thing,

    也能達到同樣的目標

  • create more and better jobs, but in a different way.

    用另一種方式 來創造更多、更好的工作機會

  • It's a somewhat more indirect way.

    只是比較間接一點

  • These programs can promote more and better jobs by,

    這些計畫可以促進更多的好工作

  • you build it, you invest in high-quality preschool,

    藉由建立、投資優質幼兒園

  • it develops the skills of your local workforce

    能增進地方勞工的技術

  • if enough of them stick around, and, in turn,

    前提是有足夠的人留在當地

  • that higher-quality local workforce

    那麼這些高品質勞工

  • will be a key driver of creating jobs and creating

    將會是創造當地社區

  • higher earnings per capita in the local community.

    工作機會與提高所得的金鑰

  • Now, let me turn to some numbers on this.

    現在,來看看一些統計數據

  • Okay. If you look at the research evidence --

    你可以看到大量的研究證明

  • that's extensive -- on how much early childhood programs

    有上幼兒園的孩童

  • affect the educational attainment, wages and skills

    對於未來的學歷、薪資與技能

  • of former participants in preschool as adults,

    造成多大的影響

  • you take those known effects,

    以這些實際狀況

  • you take how many of those folks will be expected

    估算看看,有多少人會留在家鄉

  • to stick around the state or local economy and not move out,

    或是當地企業 而不會進都會區工作

  • and you take research on how much skills

    然後看看他們的技能 能夠創造多少工作機會

  • drive job creation, you will conclude,

    你會在這三種研究中

  • from these three separate lines of research,

    得到一個結論——

  • that for every dollar invested in early childhood programs,

    在幼兒教育中多投資 1 美元

  • the per capita earnings of state residents

    該州居民的平均所得

  • go up by two dollars and 78 cents,

    就會成長 2.78 美元

  • so that's a three-to-one return.

    因此這是三比一的報酬率

  • Now you can get much higher returns,

    而且還能有高達十六比一的報酬率

  • of up to 16-to-one, if you include anti-crime benefits,

    如果把降低犯罪率也算進來

  • if you include benefits to former preschool participants

    還有把在此就讀幼兒教育

  • who move to some other state,

    後來搬到其它地區的人也算進來

  • but there's a good reason for focusing on these three dollars

    我們有很好的理由著眼於這三美元

  • because this is salient and important

    因為這對立法者

  • to state legislators and state policy makers,

    和制定州政策的人來說極其重要

  • and it's the states that are going to have to act.

    州政府應該有所動作

  • So there is this key benefit that is relevant

    因此對制定經濟發展政策的人來說

  • to state policy makers in terms of economic development.

    這項利益是十分關鍵的因素

  • Now, one objection you often hear,

    常常能聽到人們反對的聲音

  • or maybe you don't hear it because people are too polite to say it, is,

    或者你沒聽到,因為大家講得很含蓄

  • why should I pay more taxes

    我為什麼要繳更多稅

  • to invest in other people's children?

    來投資別人的小孩?

  • What's in it for me?

    這跟我有什麼關係?

  • And the trouble with that objection,

    重點問題在於

  • it reflects a total misunderstanding

    它反應出人們完全不了解

  • of how much local economies

    地方經濟對相互依賴人們之間的影響

  • involve everyone being interdependent.

    地方經濟對相互依賴人們之間的影響

  • Specifically, the interdependency here is, is that

    特別是在這裡我們所說的相互依賴

  • there are huge spillovers of skills --

    指的是大量技職人口的外移--

  • that when other people's children get more skills,

    當別人的小孩有更多的技能

  • that actually increases the prosperity of everyone,

    就能夠讓每個人都富裕

  • including people whose skills don't change.

    即使那些人的技能都未改變

  • So for example, numerous research studies have shown

    舉例來說無數的研究報告指出

  • if you look at what really drives

    如果你檢視

  • the growth rate of metropolitan areas,

    影響大都市成長率的主因

  • it's not so much low taxes, low cost, low wages;

    其實跟較低的稅額、支出、薪資關係不大

  • it's the skills of the area. Particularly, the proxy for skills

    而是和該地區的技能有關

  • that people use is percentage of college graduates in the area.

    尤其是人們所雇用的代工 等於該地區學院畢業生的比率

  • So when you look, for example, at metropolitan areas

    比如說,當你在像波士頓

  • such as the Boston area, Minneapolis-St. Paul,

    明尼亞波利.聖保羅和矽谷等大都市

  • Silicon Valley, these areas are not doing well economically

    這些地區在經濟上的表現不佳

  • because they're low-cost.

    因為它們很廉價

  • I don't know if you ever tried to buy a house in Silicon Valley.

    不知道你有沒有試過在矽谷買房子

  • It's not exactly a low-cost proposition.

    其實根本不是廉價的問題

  • They are growing because they have high levels of skills.

    他們會成長是因為有很強的技能

  • So when we invest in other people's children,

    因此當我們投資別人的小孩

  • and build up those skills, we increase the overall job growth

    然後發展那些技能,我們就能全方位地

  • of a metro area.

    增加大都市的工作機會

  • As another example, if we look

    另一個例子是

  • at what determines an individual's wages,

    當我們尋找影響一個人薪資的原因

  • and we do statistical exploration of that, what determines wages,

    然後用統計來找出決定薪資的關鍵

  • we know that the individual's wages will depend, in part,

    我們就會發現,個人薪資

  • on that individual's education,

    會受到個人學歷的影響

  • for example whether or not they have a college degree.

    好比說有沒有大學文憑

  • One of the very interesting facts is that, in addition,

    很有趣的是

  • we find that even once we hold constant, statistically,

    我們還發現了,即使在數據上

  • the effect of your own education,

    去除學歷所造成的影響

  • the education of everyone else in your metropolitan area

    大都市中其他人的學歷

  • also affects your wages.

    還是會影響你的薪資

  • So specifically, if you hold constant your education,

    具體來說如果你的學歷不變

  • you stick in percentage of college graduates in your metro area,

    但是大都市中大專畢業生比率提高

  • you will find that has a significant positive effect on your wages

    你會發現,即使自己的學歷依舊

  • without changing your education at all.

    還是會對你的薪資 帶來很明顯、正向影響

  • In fact, this effect is so strong

    事實上,這個影響大到

  • that when someone gets a college degree,

    當某個人拿到學院學位

  • the spillover effects of this on the wages

    就會造成大都市中

  • of others in the metropolitan area

    其他人薪資的成長

  • are actually greater than the direct effects.

    甚至大於對他們自身的影響

  • So if someone gets a college degree, their lifetime earnings

    因此如果有某個人拿到學院學歷

  • go up by a huge amount, over 700,000 dollars.

    他們的終身所得 會大幅成長超過七十萬美元

  • There's an effect on everyone else in the metro area

    大都市中大專院校畢業生比例提升

  • of driving up the percentage of college graduates in the metro area,

    對大都市裡的其他人都有影響

  • and if you add that up -- it's a small effect for each person,

    如果加總起來——對每一個人來說雖小

  • but if you add that up across all the people in the metro area,

    但是如果加總對整體都市人口的影響

  • you actually get that the increase in wages for everyone else

    你會發現每個人的薪資都上升了

  • in the metropolitan area adds up to almost a million dollars.

    合計大約有上百萬美元

  • That's actually greater than the direct benefits

    這其實比一個人選擇要接受教育

  • of the person choosing to get education.

    直接得到的好處還多

  • Now, what's going on here?

    現在,發生了什麼事?

  • What can explain these huge spillover effects of education?

    有什麼可以解釋 教育上龐大的溢出效應?

  • Well, let's think about it this way.

    讓我們用另一種方式來思考看看

  • I can be the most skilled person in the world,

    假設我是世界上技術最好的人

  • but if everyone else at my firm lacks skills,

    但是我公司裡的每個人都很缺乏技術

  • my employer is going to find it more difficult

    我的老闆就會發現

  • to introduce new technology, new production techniques.

    要引進新的生產技術很難

  • So as a result, my employer is going to be less productive.

    結果就是老闆會得到較少的生產量

  • They will not be able to afford to pay me as good wages.

    他們就沒有辦法付高一點的薪水給我

  • Even if everyone at my firm has good skills,

    即使我公司裡的每個人都有很好的技術

  • if the workers at the suppliers to my firm

    如果我的原料供應商的員工

  • do not have good skills,

    技術不好

  • my firm is going to be less competitive

    我的公司也會缺乏競爭力

  • competing in national and international markets.

    無法在國內或國際間的市場競爭

  • And again, the firm that's less competitive

    同樣地,如果公司缺乏競爭力

  • will not be able to pay as good wages,

    就沒有辦法付出較好的薪水