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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    譯者: Geoff Chen 審譯者: Yuguo Zhang

  • Over the past six months, I've spent my time

    過去六個月來,我大多

  • traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles,

    在旅行。我大概已經走了 60,000 英里

  • but without leaving my desk.

    但從未離開我的書桌

  • And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people.

    我能夠這麼做的原因是,我有兩個分身。

  • I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here,

    我看起來像一個人,但事實上我是兩個人。我是一個在這裡的 Eddie,

  • and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy

    但同時,第二個我,是個綠色的方盒,

  • avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.

    我是一個叫做 Cyber Frank 的阿凡達。

  • So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start,

    那就是我之前所做的事。如果可以的話,

  • if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff,

    我想從一個小實驗開始,這是因為我搞的是商業,

  • so it's important that we focus on outcomes.

    所以我們應專注於產出結果。

  • And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself,

    但之後我遇到了困難,因為我想:

  • "What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience.

    「我應該說什麼好? 我要做什麽啊? 那可是 TED 聽眾啊。

  • It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make — ?"

    我一定要盡全力。到底該如何做才好?」

  • So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right.

    所以我僅希望我先搞定困難度。

  • So let's just walk our way through this.

    所以讓我們透過這樣的方式。

  • Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like.

    你們可以和我一起做嗎? 如果可以,你可以大聲說出來。

  • The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer?

    我的問題是: 這些水平線,哪一條比較長?

  • The answer is?

    答案是?

  • Audience: The same.Eddie Obeng: The same.

    觀眾: 相同。Eddie Obeng: 相同。

  • No, they're not the same. (Laughter)

    不,他們不相同。(笑聲)

  • They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one.

    他們不一樣。最上方一條比最底部的一條長 10%。

  • So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school,

    那為什麼你跟我說它們是相同呢?你還記得當我們小時候在學校時

  • about that big, they played the same trick on us?

    他們和我們玩的同樣遊戲嗎?

  • It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember?

    那遊戲是爲了教我們視差。你記得嗎?

  • And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong.

    然後你瞭解了,你說: 「這是相同的!」你搞錯了。

  • You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10, 20, 30, 40 years:

    你還記得嗎? 你學到了答案,這答案在你腦海裡待了 10、20、30、40 年:

  • The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are,

    答案是相同。答案是相同。所以,當你們被問到長度多少時,

  • you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.

    你們說它們等長,但它們不一樣長,因為其實我已改變它了。

  • And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century.

    這就是我試圖解釋發生在我們在 21 世紀的事

  • Somebody or something has changed the rules

    某人或某事物已更改了

  • about how our world works.

    我們世界的工作法則

  • When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight,

    當我開玩笑時,我試著解釋它是發生在午夜,

  • you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay?

    你看,它發生在我們都睡著的時候,但是卻是在 15 年前的午夜。OK?

  • You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is,

    你沒有注意到它嗎? 但基本上,他們做的是,

  • they switched all the rules round, so that the way to

    他們撤換所有的規則,因此那些成功運作

  • successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country,

    商業、 組織、或甚至一個國家的方法

  • has been deleted, flipped, and it's a completely new

    都被刪除、翻轉了,它變成全新的了。

  • you think I'm joking, don't youthere's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter)

    — — 你認為我開玩笑,不是嗎 — — 有一套全新的操作規則。(笑聲)

  • Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one.

    你沒有注意到嗎?我的意思是,你錯過了這個。

  • You probablyNo, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)

    你可能 — — 不,你沒有。OK。(笑聲)

  • My simple idea is that what's happened is,

    我簡單的想法是,真正所發生的是,

  • the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us,

    我們真正所處的 21 世紀,事實上,對我們來說,並不那麼明顯,

  • so instead we spend our time responding rationally

    所以即便我們理性地回應

  • to a world which we understand and recognize,

    一個我們理解並承認的世界,

  • but which no longer exists.

    但這樣的世界早已不存在了。

  • You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)

    你不相信我,是嗎?好吧。(掌聲)

  • So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand.

    讓我帶你經歷一個小旅程,一個關於我所不理解的小旅程。

  • If you search Amazon for the word "creativity,"

    如果你在在亞馬遜網絡書店搜索「創意」一詞

  • you'll discover something like 90,000 books.

    你會發現有有大約九萬本書。

  • If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity,"

    如果你去 Google 搜索「創新 + 創意」

  • you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter)

    你會得到三千萬個相關網頁。如果你添加「顧問」一詞,會翻到六千萬。(笑聲)

  • Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover

    有跟上我嗎? 但,根據統計,你會發現

  • is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money

    只有十萬個想法中的一個可以賺到錢,

  • or delivering benefits two years after its inception.

    或在成立兩年後獲利。

  • It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives

    它毫無意義。企業動用昂貴的經理人

  • spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets

    花一堆時間精心準備預測和預算,

  • which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.

    而這些預測和預算在出版前就已經過時或需要更改。

  • How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have,

    怎麼會這樣呢? 如果你看看我們擁有的遠見,

  • the visions of how we're going to change the world,

    看看我們想要改變世界的看法,

  • the key thing is implementation. We have the vision.

    最關鍵的是執行力。我們有遠見,

  • We've got to make it happen.

    我們得讓它發生。

  • We've spent decades professionalizing implementation.

    我們花了幾十年把執行弄得專業化,

  • People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen.

    所以人們應該擅長讓這些事發生才對,

  • However, if I use as an example a family of five

    但,如果我用一個五口之家作為範例,

  • going on holiday, if you can imagine this,

    這家去度假,想像一下,

  • all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong,

    從倫敦用所有的方式抵達香港,

  • what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses.

    我要你們思考的是,他們只有三千英鎊的預算;

  • What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average

    然而,實際發生的是,如果我把這個計劃

  • real project, average real successful project,

    和一般來說真正成功的計劃作比較,

  • the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi,

    這一家人,事實上,最終會去 Makassar (印尼南蘇拉威西省) 度假

  • at a cost of 4,000 pounds,

    最後花費四千英鎊,

  • whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter)

    同時丟下兩個孩子不管。(笑聲)

  • What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.

    我試圖向你解釋的是,其實,有些事不對勁。

  • It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one.

    它甚至會更糟,讓我說說另一個:

  • This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it.

    這是一段引述,我會從它裡頭挑出詞彙。

  • It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty,

    這是這麼說的 — — 讓我換個語氣— —「總之,女王陛下

  • the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity

    未能預見這場危機的時間、 範圍、和嚴重性的原因

  • of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity

    是由於缺乏創造力

  • and the number of bright minds," or something like that.

    和一些聰穎的頭腦」或其他什麽類似的東西。

  • This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England

    這是一群知名經濟學家向英國女王的致歉詞

  • when she asked the question,

    當她問:

  • "Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter)

    「為什麼之前沒人告訴我們這場危機會來?」(笑聲)

  • I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter)

    我再也得不到我的爵位了,我再也得不到我的爵位了。(笑聲)

  • That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is,

    這不是重點。你們要記住的是,

  • these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people

    這些都是知名的經濟學家。全球最聰明的經濟學家。

  • on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)

    你們看到挑戰了嗎?(笑聲)

  • It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO,

    這很可怕。我的朋友和導師,IDEO 的 Tim Brown

  • he explains that design must get big, and he's right.

    他解釋說設計要大,他是對的。

  • He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking

    他聰明地向我們解釋這個。他說,設計思維

  • must tackle big systems for the challenges we have.

    必須處理大系統為我們帶來的挑戰。

  • He's absolutely right.

    他是絕對正確的。

  • And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?"

    然後我問自己:「那為什麼是以往它都是小的?」

  • Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool,

    這難道不奇怪嗎? 你知道,如果合作是很酷的事,

  • is cross-functional working is so amazing,

    如果跨領域工作是很棒的事,

  • why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on?

    那為什麼我們蓋了這些巨大的等級結構? 這是怎麼回事?

  • You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that

    你看,我認為這或許是

  • we've not noticed that change I described earlier.

    我們沒有注意到我之前所說的改變。

  • What we do know is that the world has accelerated.

    我們的確知道什麼加速了世界的運轉,

  • Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light.

    網路空間讓一切以光速移動,

  • Technology accelerates things exponentially.

    科技讓一切以指數的速度增長,

  • So if this is now, and that's the past,

    因此,如果這是現在,而那是過去,

  • and we start thinking about change, you know,

    我們會開始思考改變,你知道,

  • all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change,

    所有各國的政府都正在尋求改變,你們也在這裡尋求改變,

  • everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter)

    每個人都在追求改變,這真的好酷。(笑聲)

  • So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change.

    所以情況是,我們得到這些絕妙又風馳電掣的改變,

  • The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing.

    速度正在加快,但這不是唯一的發生的事,

  • At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird.

    同時,就像我們已經做的,我們已做了一些很奇怪的事情。

  • We've doubled the population in 40 years,

    我們在 40 年內使人口翻了兩倍,

  • put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact.

    將其中一半放在城市裡,接著將他們聯繫在一起,由此一來,他們可以互動。

  • The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing.

    人類互動的密度是很驚人的,

  • There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing.

    這些圖表顯示所有這些運動的資訊,該資訊的密度是驚人的,

  • And then we've done a third thing.

    然後我們成就了第三件事:

  • you know, for those of you who have as an office

    你知道,對於那些已有個辦公室

  • a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs,

    在樓梯底有小書桌的人,你說,嗯,這是我樓梯下的小桌,

  • no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet.

    不!如果你連上網,你就正坐在跨國公司的總部。

  • What's happened is, we've changed the scale.

    原因是,我們已經改變了規模。

  • Size and scale are no longer the same.

    大小和規模不再相同了。

  • And then add to that, every time you tweet,

    然後,每次當你 tweet,

  • over a third of your followers follow from a country

    有超過三分之一你的追隨者

  • which is not your own.

    不和你是同一個國家。

  • Global is the new scale. We know that.

    全球是新的規模,我們都知道這一點。

  • And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that?

    所以當人們說: 「世界現在是個紊亂而動盪的地方。」你真有聽到他們這樣說嗎?

  • And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?

    他們這麼說是一種比喻。你有碰過這種事嗎?

  • And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor.

    而且他們認為這是一個比喻,然而這卻不是一種比喻,

  • It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember

    它就是現實。作為一個年輕的工程學生,我記得

  • going to a demonstration where they basically,

    我曾經參加一個教學示範,在那裡,基本上

  • the demonstrator did something quite intriguing.

    示範者做了一件頗耐人尋味的事,

  • What he did was, he got a transparent pipehave you seen this demonstration before? —

    他所做的是,他得到一個透明的水管— — 你之前見過這種實地示範嗎? —

  • he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was,

    他把它安裝在一個水龍頭上,所以你過去的情況是

  • you had a situation where — I'll try and draw the tap

    你過去的情況是— — 我試著畫水龍頭和水管,

  • and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard.

    事實上,我想跳過水龍頭。水龍頭好難。

  • Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter)

    好吧? 所以我寫「水龍頭」。這樣好嗎? 它是自來水。(笑聲)

  • Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on.

    好,所以他安裝上一個透明的水管,他打開水,

  • And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe.

    然後他說,你注意到什麼嗎? 水迅速流下這水管。

  • I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me?

    我的意思是,這不是令人興奮的東西。你有跟上嗎?

  • So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great.

    於是,水會上升,他把它堵回去。很棒。

  • And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe,

    他說: 「你注意到什麽了嗎?」沒有,他將一針戳近水管

  • and he connects this to a container, and he fills

    他把這連到一個容器,接著他用綠色墨水

  • the container up with green ink. You with me?

    填滿容器。你有跟上我嗎?

  • So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out

    所以你猜接下來會發生什麼情況? 一條細細的綠線出來了,

  • as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting.

    沿著管道流動,這不是那麼有趣,

  • And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes.

    然後他水多調一點,於是它開始回來,並沒有任何變化。

  • So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line.

    所以他改變水流,但它是只是條無聊的綠線,

  • He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens.

    他加更多,他加更多,然後奇怪的事情發生了,

  • There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more,

    有個小小的閃爍,之後,當他再打開它多一點,

  • the whole of that green line disappears, and instead

    那綠線全部消失了,反而

  • there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle.

    有些小小的黑塵靠近針,

  • They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink

    它們叫做旋渦,不是我,他們正在猛烈地分散墨水,

  • so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.

    所以,它實際上獲得稀釋了,顏色也不見了。

  • What's happened in this world of pipe

    在這個世界中的水管中所發生的是,

  • is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent.

    有人已翻轉它了,它們已經從層流到亂流,改變了規則。

  • All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly,

    所有的規則都沒了。在這樣的環境下,轉瞬間,

  • all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available,

    所有亂流帶來的可能性都存在了,

  • and it's not the same as laminar.

    而且並不與層流相同。

  • And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.

    如果我們沒有那個綠色的墨水,你永遠不會注意到它。

  • And I think this is our challenge, because somebody

    我想這就是我們面臨的挑戰,因為有人

  • has actually increasedand it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff

    事實上,增加了(這可能是你們這些搞科技的傢伙做的 )

  • the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.

    互動的速度、 規模、和密度。

  • Now how do we cope and deal with that?

    現在我們應該如何處理它?