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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    譯者: Yuguo Zhang 審譯者: Yun Liu

  • So the machine I'm going to talk you about

    我今天要向大家介紹的這個機器

  • is what I call the greatest machine that never was.

    被稱為有史以來最偉大的機器

  • It was a machine that was never built,

    雖然目前它還沒被真的創造出來

  • and yet, it will be built.

    但它以後一定會被發明出來的

  • It was a machine that was designed

    這個機器在任何人發明電腦之前

  • long before anyone thought about computers.

    就被設計出來了

  • If you know anything about the history of computers,

    如果你對電腦的歷史有一些了解

  • you will know that in the '30s and the '40s,

    你就會知道,在30和40年代的時候

  • simple computers were created

    一些電腦的雛型被創造出來

  • that started the computer revolution we have today,

    接著誕生了我們今日的電腦革命

  • and you would be correct,

    你是對的

  • except for you'd have the wrong century.

    不過你把發生的世紀搞錯了

  • The first computer was really designed

    其實,第一台電腦是在19世紀的

  • in the 1830s and 1840s, not the 1930s and 1940s.

    30和40年代,而不是20世紀的時發明的

  • It was designed, and parts of it were prototyped,

    有人設計出這個機器,並做出部分原型

  • and the bits of it that were built are here

    有部分就是在這裡製造的

  • in South Kensington.

    也就是肯辛頓南部

  • That machine was built by this guy, Charles Babbage.

    這個機器是被Charles Babbage這個人做出來的

  • Now, I have a great affinity for Charles Babbage

    我對Charles Babbage很感興趣

  • because his hair is always completely unkempt like this

    因為他所有照片裡的頭髮都亂七八糟的

  • in every single picture. (Laughter)

    像這樣,每張都是 (笑聲)

  • He was a very wealthy man, and a sort of,

    他非常的富有

  • part of the aristocracy of Britain,

    而且可以說是英國的貴族成員

  • and on a Saturday night in Marylebone,

    在馬斯伯恩 (倫敦市區) 的一個週六夜晚

  • were you part of the intelligentsia of that period,

    如果你是一位當代的知識分子

  • you would have been invited round to his house

    你就會被邀請到他家參加晚會

  • for a soireeand he invited everybody:

    他邀請了每個人--

  • kings, the Duke of Wellington, many, many famous people

    國王、惠靈頓的公爵、很多有名的人---

  • and he would have shown you one of his mechanical machines.

    然後他會向你們展示他許多機械中的一個

  • I really miss that era, you know, where you could

    我非常想念那個時代,你知道的,

  • go around for a soiree and see a mechanical computer

    可以去參加晚會,然後看一個

  • get demonstrated to you. (Laughter)

    機械電腦在你面前被展示 (笑聲)

  • But Babbage, Babbage himself was born

    不過Babbage是在

  • at the end of the 18th century,

    18世紀末出生的

  • and was a fairly famous mathematician.

    而且還是個有名的數學家

  • He held the post that Newton held at Cambridge,

    他主持了當初牛頓在劍橋主持的盛會

  • and that was recently held by Stephen Hawking.

    這個盛會最近由史蒂芬霍金主持

  • He's less well known than either of them because

    他沒這些人那麼有名,因為

  • he got this idea to make mechanical computing devices

    他只有創造這台機器的想法

  • and never made any of them.

    但卻從未真正創造出來

  • The reason he never made any of them, he's a classic nerd.

    原因就是,他是個標準的書呆子

  • Every time he had a good idea, he'd think,

    每次他有很好的想法時

  • "That's brilliant, I'm going to start building that one.

    他就會想:「太棒了,我要去把它做出來。

  • I'll spend a fortune on it. I've got a better idea.

    我得投入一些錢... 阿,我又有個更好的主意

  • I'm going to work on this one. (Laughter) And I'm going to do this one."

    那我來做這個吧 (笑聲) 然後我還要...」

  • He did this until Sir Robert Peel, then Prime Minister,

    他一直重複這些想法,直到首相Sir Robert Peel

  • basically kicked him out of Number 10 Downing Street,

    把他從唐寧街10號 (首相官邸) 趕出去

  • and kicking him out, in those days, that meant saying,

    當時,從那裏被趕出去就意會著

  • "I bid you good day, sir." (Laughter)

    「先生,祝您有個愉快的一天。」 (笑聲)

  • The thing he designed was this monstrosity here,

    他所設計的就是這個巨大的東西:分析引擎。

  • the analytical engine. Now, just to give you an idea of this,

    現在,為了讓你有個初步的了解

  • this is a view from above.

    這是由上往下的俯視圖

  • Every one of these circles is a cog, a stack of cogs,

    每個圈圈都是一個齒輪,一堆齒輪

  • and this thing is as big as a steam locomotive.

    而這東西就跟一個蒸汽火車頭一樣大

  • So as I go through this talk, I want you to imagine

    所以在我演講的過程中,我希望你能想像一下

  • this gigantic machine. We heard those wonderful sounds

    這個巨大的機器。我們可以想像我們正聽著

  • of what this thing would have sounded like.

    這個機器有可能發出的美妙聲音

  • And I'm going to take you through the architecture of the machine

    現在,我將為各位介紹這個機器的搆造

  • that's why it's computer architecture

    這就是為什麼「電腦系統搆造 (computer architechture)」是用英文中建築物 (architecture) 這個單字

  • and tell you about this machine, which is a computer.

    並為大家介紹這台機器,也就是電腦

  • So let's talk about the memory. The memory

    首先,讓我們聊聊記憶體。

  • is very like the memory of a computer today,

    這機器的記憶體就跟現在電腦的記憶體很像

  • except it was all made out of metal,

    只不過它當時是用金屬打造成的

  • stacks and stacks of cogs, 30 cogs high.

    一堆齒輪 -- 總共有30個齒輪那麼高

  • Imagine a thing this high of cogs,

    想像一下這些齒輪的高度

  • hundreds and hundreds of them,

    成千上百個的齒輪

  • and they've got numbers on them.

    每個齒輪上都有編號

  • It's a decimal machine. Everything's done in decimal.

    這個機器是十進位制的。所有東西都是十進位制

  • And he thought about using binary. The problem

    他曾想過用二進位制,不過問題是

  • with using binary is that the machine would have been so

    如果用二進位制,機器就會變得過高

  • tall, it would have been ridiculous. As it is, it's enormous.

    看起來很荒謬,而且極其巨大

  • So he's got memory.

    它也有記憶體

  • The memory is this bit over here.

    記憶體就是這裡的位元

  • You see it all like this.

    它們長這個樣子

  • This monstrosity over here is the CPU, the chip, if you like.

    這個巨大的東西就是CPU,或稱為晶片

  • Of course, it's this big.

    沒錯,就是這麼大

  • Completely mechanical. This whole machine is mechanical.

    整個機器完全都是機械化

  • This is a picture of a prototype for part of the CPU

    這是一張局部的CPU原型照片

  • which is in the Science Museum.

    目前被存放在科學博物館

  • The CPU could do the four fundamental functions of arithmetic --

    CPU可以做4種最基本的算數

  • so addition, multiplication, subtraction, division --

    加、減、乘、除

  • which already is a bit of a feat in metal,

    這對金屬來說已經很厲害了

  • but it could also do something that a computer does

    不過,它也可以做一些電腦可以、

  • and a calculator doesn't:

    但計算機做不了的事情

  • this machine could look at its own internal memory and make a decision.

    這個機器可以透過本身的記憶體做出決定

  • It could do the "if then" for basic programmers,

    它可以幫基本編程做假設

  • and that fundamentally made it into a computer.

    而擁有這些功能,表示它就是一台電腦

  • It could compute. It couldn't just calculate. It could do more.

    它可以計算、不光是算數,而且還可以做更多

  • Now, if we look at this, and we stop for a minute,

    現在,如果我們看著它,停下來想想

  • and we think about chips today, we can't

    我們今天的晶片,,我們根本沒辦法看見

  • look inside a silicon chip. It's just so tiny.

    那些矽晶片的內部構造,它們實在太小了

  • Yet if you did, you would see something

    然而,如果你真的仔細研究它,你可以看到

  • very, very similar to this.

    跟這個非常相似的東西

  • There's this incredible complexity in the CPU,

    這就是CPU裡令人屏息的複雜構造

  • and this incredible regularity in the memory.

    以及記憶體中不可思議的規律性

  • If you've ever seen an electron microscope picture,

    如果你曾經看過一個電子顯微鏡照片

  • you'll see this. This all looks the same,

    你就會看到這個,它們看起來完全一樣

  • then there's this bit over here which is incredibly complicated.

    然後這裡會有些十分複雜的位元

  • All this cog wheel mechanism here is doing is what a computer does,

    這裡所有的齒輪都在做一些電腦能做的事情

  • but of course you need to program this thing, and of course,

    當然,你得幫它寫程式

  • Babbage used the technology of the day

    而 Babbage 用了和當今一樣的方法

  • and the technology that would reappear in the '50s, '60s and '70s,

    而這個方法在50,60,70年代會再次出現

  • which is punch cards. This thing over here

    也就是:打孔。這個東西

  • is one of three punch card readers in here,

    就是三個讀卡機的其中一個

  • and this is a program in the Science Museum, just

    而這是一個程式,目前存放在科學博物館

  • not far from here, created by Charles Babbage,

    離這兒不遠,是由 Charles Babbage 建造的

  • that is sitting thereyou can go see it

    它就在那裡,你可以去看看

  • waiting for the machine to be built.

    它等待著人們把機器創造出來

  • And there's not just one of these, there's many of them.

    事實上,這機器不僅僅只有一台,而是有很多

  • He prepared programs anticipating this would happen.

    他設計了一些程式,認為這個可以實現

  • Now, the reason they used punch cards was that Jacquard,

    之所以使用打孔卡片的原因是

  • in France, had created the Jacquard loom,

    法國的 Jacquard 創造了織布機

  • which was weaving these incredible patterns controlled by punch cards,

    而織布機可以織出這些打孔卡片上不可思議的圖案

  • so he was just repurposing the technology of the day,

    所以他當時是在為今天的科技做準備

  • and like everything else he did, he's using the technology

    就跟所有他做的其他事情一樣,他使用的

  • of his era, so 1830s, 1840s, 1850s, cogs, steam,

    是他當時19世紀30,40,50年代的科技:齒輪、蒸汽

  • mechanical devices. Ironically, born the same year

    機器。很諷刺的是,跟 Charles Babbage

  • as Charles Babbage was Michael Faraday,

    同一年出生的有麥克法拉第

  • who would completely revolutionize everything

    那個用發電機、變壓器、和其他玩意兒

  • with the dynamo, transformers, all these sorts of things.

    改變了一切的那個傢伙

  • Babbage, of course, wanted to use proven technology,

    Babbage 想要用當時現存的科技

  • so steam and things.

    也就是就是蒸汽之類的東西

  • Now, he needed accessories.

    現在,他需要一些配件

  • Obviously, you've got a computer now.

    顯然電腦的雛型已經出來了

  • You've got punch cards, a CPU and memory.

    你有很多卡片、CPU、以及記憶體

  • You need accessories you're going to come with.

    但你還需要一些其他的配件

  • You're not just going to have that,

    但是你找不到

  • So, first of all, you had sound. You had a bell,

    所以呢,首先你要有發出聲音的東西,像是鈴鐺

  • so if anything went wrong — (Laughter) —

    如果任何事情搞砸了的話---- (笑聲)

  • or the machine needed the attendant to come to it,

    或者這機器需要一個人員陪同

  • there was a bell it could ring. (Laughter)

    你就可以搖鈴鐺 (笑聲)

  • And there's actually an instruction on the punch card

    在打孔卡片上其實有個說明

  • which says "Ring the bell." So you can imagine this "Ting!"

    寫著:「搖鈴鐺」。想像那「叮」的一聲

  • You know, just stop for a moment, imagine all those noises,

    讓我們暫停一下,想像這些聲音

  • this thing, "Click, clack click click click,"

    這台機器發出「喀喀喀喀」的聲音

  • steam engine, "Ding," right? (Laughter)

    或是蒸汽引擎的聲音「叮」。沒錯吧?(笑聲)

  • You also need a printer, obviously, and everyone needs a printer.

    很顯然,你還需要一個印表機,每個人都需要

  • This is actually a picture of the printing mechanism for

    這個圖片是關於另外一個機器的列印原理

  • another machine of his, called the Difference Engine No. 2,

    它叫做「不同的2號引擎」

  • which he never built, but which the Science Museum

    他沒有把這個機器做出來,不過科學博物館

  • did build in the '80s and '90s.

    在80和90年代真的做出來了

  • It's completely mechanical, again, a printer.

    它是個完全機械性的印表機

  • It prints just numbers, because he was obsessed with numbers,

    它只能印數字,因為他對數字很著迷

  • but it does print onto paper, and it even does word wrapping,

    它確實可印在紙上,甚至可以自動換行

  • so if you get to the end of the line, it goes around like that.

    所以當你打到一行結束,它就可以變成這樣

  • You also need graphics, right?

    你還需要圖片,對吧?

  • I mean, if you're going to do anything with graphics,

    就是說,當你得處理一些關於圖片的事

  • so he said, "Well, I need a plotter. I've got a big piece of paper

    因此他說:「嗯,我需要個繪圖機。我有一大張紙

  • and an ink pen and I'll make it plot."

    還有鋼筆,這樣我就可以讓它作圖了。」

  • So he designed a plotter as well,

    因此他也設計了一個繪圖機

  • and, you know, at that point, I think he got pretty much

    你知道的,以那個時候的發展來說

  • a pretty good machine.

    我認為他已經做出一個很好的機器了

  • Along comes this woman, Ada Lovelace.

    接下來則要介紹這位女士,Ada Lovelace

  • Now, imagine these soirees, all these great and good comes along.

    現在,想像一下這些晚會,聚集了有名利的人們

  • This lady is the daughter of the mad, bad

    而這位女士的父親就是瘋狂、陰險

  • and dangerous-to-know Lord Byron,

    、又危險的拜倫王

  • and her mother, being a bit worried that she might have

    她的母親擔心她會繼承拜倫王

  • inherited some of Lord Byron's madness and badness,

    那些又古怪又壞的行為

  • thought, "I know the solution: Mathematics is the solution.

    於是就想:「我知道怎麼解決了:數學。

  • We'll teach her mathematics. That'll calm her down."

    我們會教她數學,這樣她就會安靜下來了。」

  • (Laughter) Because of course,

    (笑聲) 原因是因為

  • there's never been a mathematician that's gone crazy,

    從來沒有數學家最後會瘋掉

  • so, you know, that'll be fine. (Laughter)

    所以,嗯,這個主意還不錯 (笑聲)

  • Everything'll be fine. So she's got this mathematical training,

    一切不會有問題。所以她開始學習數學

  • and she goes to one of these soirees with her mother,

    並跟她母親去了一個這樣的晚會

  • and Charles Babbage, you know, gets out his machine.

    Charles Babbage ,你知道的,拿出他的機器

  • The Duke of Wellington is there, you know,

    威靈頓的公爵也在場

  • get out the machine, obviously demonstrates it,

    Charles 展示了他的機器

  • and she gets it. She's the only person in his lifetime, really,

    而 Ada Lovelace 就理解了。她是他生命中

  • who said, "I understand what this does,

    唯一一個說出:「我知道這個機器的功用

  • and I understand the future of this machine."

    也理解這個機器的未來會怎麼樣」的人。

  • And we owe to her an enormous amount because we know

    她對我們帮助非常大,因為我們之所以

  • a lot about the machine that Babbage was intending to build

    能知道許多 Babbage 設計的機器

  • because of her.

    都歸功於她

  • Now, some people call her the first programmer.

    現在有些人稱她叫第一位程式設計者

  • This is actually from one of -- the paper that she translated.

    這其實是從她當初翻譯的一篇論文中節錄出來的

  • This is a program written in a particular style.

    這是一個以特定格式寫下的程式

  • It's not, historically, totally accurate that she's the first programmer,

    不過,正確來說她並不是真正的第一位程式設計者

  • and actually, she did something more amazing.

    而且事實上,她做了更驚人的事

  • Rather than just being a programmer,

    不僅僅只是寫程式

  • she saw something that Babbage didn't.

    她看到了一些 Babbage 沒看到的東西

  • Babbage was totally obsessed with mathematics.

    因為 Babbage 對數學太著迷了

  • He was building a machine to do mathematics,

    他想做一個能算數學的機器

  • and Lovelace said, "You could do more than mathematics

    Lavelace 說:「這台機器

  • on this machine." And just as you do,

    不只可以算數。」就像在座的各位一樣

  • everyone in this room already's got a computer on them

    大家此刻身上都有一台電腦

  • right now, because they've got a phone.

    也就是手機

  • If you go into that phone, every single thing in that phone

    如果你打開你的手機,每個手機

  • or computer or any other computing device

    、電腦、或任何其他計算設備

  • is mathematics. It's all numbers at the bottom.

    都是數學。運作的基礎都是數字

  • Whether it's video or text or music or voice, it's all numbers,

    不論是影片、簡訊、音樂、或聲音,都是數字

  • it's all, underlying it, mathematical functions happening,

    全部。數學讓這一切成為可能

  • and Lovelace said, "Just because you're doing

    而 Lovalace 說「雖然你在使用的

  • mathematical functions and symbols

    是數學函數和數學符號

  • doesn't mean these things can't represent

    但這並不表示這些東西就不能

  • other things in the real world, such as music."

    代表其他東西,例如音樂」

  • This was a huge leap, because Babbage is there saying,

    這是個非常大的進展,因為 Babbage 還在說著

  • "We could compute these amazing functions and print out

    「我們可以繪出這些神奇的函數、

  • tables of numbers and draw graphs," — (Laughter) —

    印出表格和數字,然後畫圖!」(笑聲)

  • and Lovelace is there and she says, "Look,

    Lovalce 則說:「你看,

  • this thing could even compose music if you

    這機器可以做出曲子,

  • told it a representation of music numerically."

    只要你給它用來代表音樂的數字代號

  • So this is what I call Lovelace's Leap.

    這就是我所說的 Loavelace 大躍進

  • When you say she's a programmer, she did do some,

    若你稱她為程式設計者,她的確是

  • but the real thing is to have said the future is going to be

    不過真正重要的是她看見了這機器

  • much, much more than this.

    在未來能有更多可能性

  • Now, a hundred years later, this guy comes along,

    而一百多年後,某個人出現了

  • Alan Turing, and in 1936, and invents the computer all over again.

    Alan Turing 在1936年重新發明了電腦

  • Now, of course, Babbage's machine was entirely mechanical.

    當然,Babbage的機器是純機械的

  • Turing's machine was entirely theoretical.

    Turing 的機器是純理論的

  • Both of these guys were coming from a mathematical perspective,

    這兩人都是從數學的觀點來思考

  • but Turing told us something very important.

    但 Turing 告訴我們一些很重要的事情

  • He laid down the mathematical foundations

    他奠定了數學在電腦科學

  • for computer science, and said,

    中的基礎,說到:

  • "It doesn't matter how you make a computer."

    「你怎麼把電腦創造出來的並不重要。」

  • It doesn't matter if your computer's mechanical,

    你的電腦是不是像Babbage那樣是純機械的,

  • like Babbage's was, or electronic, like computers are today,

    或者像今天這種電子的,都不重要

  • or perhaps in the future, cells, or, again,

    也許未來的電腦是由細胞構成的

  • mechanical again, once we get into nanotechnology.

    或者又回歸到純機械的。一旦我們使用了奈米技術

  • We could go back to Babbage's machine

    我們可以把 Babbage 的機器變得

  • and just make it tiny. All those things are computers.

    非常小。.所有東西都是電腦

  • There is in a sense a computing essence.

    而在這之中,所有東西的本質都是計算

  • This is called the ChurchTuring thesis.

    這叫做 Church-Turing 理論

  • And so suddenly, you get this link where you say

    所以突然間,你會開始聯想到,

  • this thing Babbage had built really was a computer.

    Babbage 當年造的那東西,其實就是台電腦

  • In fact, it was capable of doing everything we do today

    事實上,它可以做出任何我們現在

  • with computers, only really slowly. (Laughter)

    用電腦能做的事情,只不過很慢 (笑聲)

  • To give you an idea of how slowly,

    為了讓大家了解有多慢,以下是說明:

  • it had about 1k of memory.

    它有1k的記憶體

  • It used punch cards, which were being fed in,

    並且使用打孔卡,必需手動插進去

  • and it ran about 10,000 times slower the first ZX81.

    它的速度比第一台ZX81 (家用電腦) 要慢一萬倍

  • It did have a RAM pack.

    它確實有一個記憶體

  • You could add on a lot of extra memory if you wanted to.

    如果你想的話,你可以擴大它的存儲

  • (Laughter) So, where does that bring us today?

    (笑聲) 那麼,我們今天能做什麼呢?

  • So there are plans.

    以下是計劃

  • Over in Swindon, the Science Museum archives,

    在Swindon 科學博物館的檔案中

  • there are hundreds of plans and thousands of pages

    有上百個計劃和 上千頁文獻

  • of notes written by Charles Babbage about this analytical engine.

    是 Charles Babbage 寫的、關於這個分析引擎的筆記

  • One of those is a set of plans that we call Plan 28,

    其中有一系列計畫被我們稱作計劃28

  • and that is also the name of a charity that I started

    這也是個我與 Doron Swade 所創立的一個

  • with Doron Swade, who was the curator of computing

    慈善機構的名字。Doron Swade 是科學博物館中

  • at the Science Museum, and also the person who drove

    管理電腦的成員,也是起草了這個計劃

  • the project to build a difference engine,

    要建造出一個不一樣引擎的人

  • and our plan is to build it.

    我們的計劃就是把它做出來

  • Here in South Kensington, we will build the analytical engine.

    就在肯辛頓南部,我們會做出這個分析引擎

  • The project has a number of parts to it.

    這個工程分成很多部分

  • One was the scanning of Babbage's archive.

    其中一部分就是掃描 Babbage 的文獻

  • That's been done. The second is now the study

    這部分已經完成,而正在進行的第二部份

  • of all of those plans to determine what to build.

    則是研讀所有計劃然後決定要建造什麼

  • The third part is a computer simulation of that machine,

    第三部分是一個模擬那機器的電腦糢擬系統

  • and the last part is to physically build it at the Science Museum.

    最後一部份,就是在博物館中把機器做出來

  • When it's built, you'll finally be able to understand how a computer works,

    當它完成時,你就會真正理解電腦是怎麼工作的

  • because rather than having a tiny chip in front of you,

    因為你就不再只是盯著面前一個極小的晶片

  • you've got to look at this humongous thing and say, "Ah,

    而是可以看看這個巨大的東西然後說:

  • I see the memory operating, I see the CPU operating,

    「阿,我看到記憶體在運作、CPU在運作、

  • I hear it operating. I probably smell it operating." (Laughter)

    我聽見它運作的聲響。我說不定還聞的到!」 (笑聲)

  • But in between that we're going to do a simulation.

    但在這之間呢,我們會做一個糢擬

  • Babbage himself wrote, he said,

    Babbage 自己寫到:

  • as soon as the analytical engine exists,

    一旦分析引擎真的被製造出來後

  • it will surely guide the future course of science.

    它一定會對於未來的科學有所帮助

  • Of course, he never built it, because he was always fiddling

    當然,他從沒有成功做出來,因為他總是

  • with new plans, but when it did get built, of course,

    在他的新計劃上浪費時間,但當這東西真的

  • in the 1940s, everything changed.

    在1940年代被做出來時,一切都改變了

  • Now, I'll just give you a little taste of what it looks like

    現在,我讓各位稍微看看它

  • in motion with a video which shows

    運作的樣子,這影片會展示出

  • just one part of the CPU mechanism working.

    局部的CPU運作的機械原理

  • So this is just three sets of cogs,

    這是三組齒輪

  • and it's going to add. This is the adding mechanism

    它準備做加法。這是加法的運作原理

  • in action, so you imagine this gigantic machine.

    如此一來,你可以想像這個巨大的機器

  • So, give me five years.

    因此呢,給我五年時間

  • Before the 2030s happen, we'll have it.

    在2030之前,我們將會做出這個機器

  • Thank you very much. (Applause)

    謝謝各位。 (鼓掌)

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Yuguo Zhang 審譯者: Yun Liu

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【TED】約翰-格雷厄姆-康明。約翰-格雷厄姆-康明:從來沒有過的最偉大的機器(John Graham-Cumming: The greatest machine that never was)。 (【TED】John Graham-Cumming: The greatest machine that never was (John Graham-Cumming: The greatest machine that never was))

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    Zenn 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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