Name: 【TED】比爾蓋茲談能源 : 至零方休的革新 ! (Innovating to zero! | Bill Gates)
Uploaded: 2013-03-03T10:20:58.000Z
Duration: 29 min 33 s

to 不定詞

I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.

今天我要談的是關於能量和氣候。

And that might seem a bit surprising because

這或許有點讓人意外，因為你們也知道

my full-time work at the Foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds,

我在基金會全職的工作主要關於疫苗和種子，

about the things that we need to invent and deliver

to help the poorest two billion live better lives.

But energy and climate are extremely important to these people --

但是能源和氣候對這些人也極其重要，

in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.

實際上，比對地球其他人來說更重要。

The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow:

氣候變得更壞，使得他們的穀物將有很多年無法成長。

There will be too much rain, not enough rain,

有時將有太多雨，有時將會雨量不足。

that their fragile environment simply can't support.

以他們脆弱環境實在難以支撐。

And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.

結果將導致飢餓。 導致不確定的恐慌和動亂。

So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.

因此，氣候變化對於他們是十分可怕的。

Also, the price of energy is very important to them.

此外，能源的價格對他們非常重要。

In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of,

實際上，如果你僅僅能挑一件東西降低價格，

to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.

以降低貧困，目前能源是最佳選項。

Now, the price of energy has come down over time.

現下，能源的價格已經下降好長一段時間。

Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.

真的，人類的文明進步是基於能量的進展。

The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution,

and, even in the 1900s we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity,

並且，在20世紀我們看見電力的價格迅速下降。

and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning,

因此我們才能擁有冰箱，空調系統，

we can make modern materials and do so many things.

並且能製造進步的材料及那麼多東西。

And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.

也因此，我們處於一個有電力的美好富足世界。

But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap --

如果，當我們使它更便宜 --讓我們努力使它兩倍便宜 --

and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.

而描述CO2的方程式實際上是非常直觀的。

如果你把所有排出的CO2加起來，

and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects:

而溫度增加進而導致一些負面效果。

the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects,

這效應對天氣有影響，更糟的是或許是其他間接的效應

in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,

我們的自然生態系統不能適應這些迅速的變化，

from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be

例如在CO2的增加量與溫度上昇幅度的對應

there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.

And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,

當然對於這些效應有多糟的看法，也有不確定性

I asked the top scientists on this several times:

我好幾次就這議題問過幾位頂尖的科學家，

Do we really have to get down to near zero?

我們真的必須將CO2減量至幾近零嗎？

Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

And the answer is that until we get near to zero,

而答案是直到我們降至零之前，

It's very different than saying "We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,

這跟如何讓一輛12英尺高的卡車穿過一座10英尺高的橋完全不同，

This is something that has to get to zero.

要減量到零，有些事情必須考量。

Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year,

現在，我們每年排出許多二氧化碳，

for people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.

對窮國的人們來說，每人不到一公頓。

It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.

地球上每人的平均大約5 公頓。

It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,

曾有各種各樣的經濟變化使它的趨勢平緩，

因此我們必須努力從迅速上升的趨勢

to falling, and falling all the way to zero.

開始讓它下降，並且一路下降到零。

So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,

因此，左式有一因子CO2，你想要它趨於零，

and that's going to be based on the number of people,

而那必須基於「人口的數量」，

the services each person's using on average,

and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.

and see how we can get this down to zero.

並且想想我們如何能把這變成零。

Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.

或許，這些數字之一必須讓它趨近於零。

Now that's back from high school algebra,

Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,

現在，如果我們在新疫苗發展上有不錯的進展，

health care, reproductive health services,

we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent,

but there we see an increase of about 1.3.

The second factor is the services we use.

第2 個因子是我們使用的服務。

我們吃的食品，衣服，電視，暖氣。

getting rid of poverty means providing these services

提供這些服務某種程度表示脫離了貧困

And it's a great thing for this number to go up.

In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,

在富有的世界，或許前10億人口，

我們或許能縮減享受以減少用量，

but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,

但是每年，這平均數目是上升的，

and so, over all, that will more than double

整體說來，將來會成為兩倍以上

現在我們來談一項非常基本的服務。

Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?

你房子內有照明讓你能做你的家庭作業嗎?

And, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out

實際上，很多孩子沒有，因此他們必須到屋外

and reading their school work under the street lamps.

並且在路燈下研讀他們的功課。

Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service,

再來，講到效率，E，指每種服務所需的能量，

Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,

透過各式各樣的發明和製作照明設備的新方法，

through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings --

透過不同的汽車類型，建築大樓的不同方法。