And that might seem a bit surprising because

這或許有點讓人意外，因為你們也知道

my full-time work at the Foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds,

我在基金會全職的工作主要關於疫苗和種子，

about the things that we need to invent and deliver

這些急需要發明且散佈的事情

to help the poorest two billion live better lives.

以幫助20億貧民過更好生活。

But energy and climate are extremely important to these people --

但是能源和氣候對這些人也極其重要，

in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.

實際上，比對地球其他人來說更重要。

The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow:

氣候變得更壞，使得他們的穀物將有很多年無法成長。

There will be too much rain, not enough rain,

有時將有太多雨，有時將會雨量不足。

things will change in ways

所有改變的方式

that their fragile environment simply can't support.

以他們脆弱環境實在難以支撐。

And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.

結果將導致飢餓。 導致不確定的恐慌和動亂。

So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.

因此，氣候變化對於他們是十分可怕的。

Also, the price of energy is very important to them.

此外，能源的價格對他們非常重要。

In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of,

實際上，如果你僅僅能挑一件東西降低價格，

to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.

以降低貧困，目前能源是最佳選項。

Now, the price of energy has come down over time.

現下，能源的價格已經下降好長一段時間。

Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.

真的，人類的文明進步是基於能量的進展。

The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution,

煤的革命點燃工業革命，

and, even in the 1900s we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity,

並且，在20世紀我們看見電力的價格迅速下降。

and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning,

因此我們才能擁有冰箱，空調系統，

we can make modern materials and do so many things.

並且能製造進步的材料及那麼多東西。

And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.

也因此，我們處於一個有電力的美好富足世界。

But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap --

如果，當我們使它更便宜 --讓我們努力使它兩倍便宜 --

we need to meet a new constraint,

我們就必須面臨新的限制，

and that constraint has to do with CO2.

這限制就是CO2(二氧化碳)。

CO2 is warming the planet,

CO2使地球變暖，

and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.

而描述CO2的方程式實際上是非常直觀的。

If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,

如果你把所有排出的CO2加起來，

that leads to a temperature increase,

那就會導致溫度增加，

and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects:

而溫度增加進而導致一些負面效果。

the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects,

這效應對天氣有影響，更糟的是或許是其他間接的效應

in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,

我們的自然生態系統不能適應這些迅速的變化，

and so you get ecosystem collapses.

生態系統因而崩潰。

Now, the exact amount of how you map

現在對於精確的數據對應

from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be

例如在CO2的增加量與溫度上昇幅度的對應

and where the positive feedbacks are,

以及是否有正向的回饋的存在

there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.

有些不確定性但不算太多

And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,

當然對於這些效應有多糟的看法，也有不確定性

but they will be extremely bad.

但方向上一定是相當糟的

I asked the top scientists on this several times:

我好幾次就這議題問過幾位頂尖的科學家，

Do we really have to get down to near zero?

我們真的必須將CO2減量至幾近零嗎？

Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

只降一半或降至四分之一呢?

And the answer is that until we get near to zero,

而答案是直到我們降至零之前，

the temperature will continue to rise.

溫度還是繼續升高。

And so that's a big challenge.

所以這是一大挑戰。

It's very different than saying "We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,

這跟如何讓一輛12英尺高的卡車穿過一座10英尺高的橋完全不同，

and we can just sort of squeeze under."

我們只能用力向下緊壓

This is something that has to get to zero.

要減量到零，有些事情必須考量。

Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year,

現在，我們每年排出許多二氧化碳，

over 26 billion tons.

超過260億公頓。

For each American, it's about 20 tons;

大約是每名美國人20公頓。

for people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.

對窮國的人們來說，每人不到一公頓。

It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.

地球上每人的平均大約5 公頓。

And, somehow, we have to make changes

不管如何，我們都必須改變

that will bring that down to zero.

以減量到零。

It's been constantly going up.

它一直不斷上升。

It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,

曾有各種各樣的經濟變化使它的趨勢平緩，

so we have to go from rapidly rising

因此我們必須努力從迅速上升的趨勢

to falling, and falling all the way to zero.

開始讓它下降，並且一路下降到零。

This equation has four factors,

這個方程式有四個因子。

a little bit of multiplication:

及簡單的相乘。

So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,

因此，左式有一因子CO2，你想要它趨於零，

and that's going to be based on the number of people,

而那必須基於「人口的數量」，

the services each person's using on average,

「平均每人享用的服務」，

the energy on average for each service,

「每種服務的平均的能源」，

and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.

及「單位能源排出的CO2」。

So, let's look at each one of these

現在，讓我們逐一審視

and see how we can get this down to zero.

並且想想我們如何能把這變成零。

Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.

或許，這些數字之一必須讓它趨近於零。

Now that's back from high school algebra,

現在讓我們複習中學的代數，

but let's take a look.

讓我們瞧瞧。

First, we've got population.

首先是人口。

The world today has 6.8 billion people.

現下，世界有約68億人。

That's headed up to about nine billion.

未來預計增到大約90億。

Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,

現在，如果我們在新疫苗發展上有不錯的進展，

health care, reproductive health services,

包括醫療保健，生育保健服務

we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent,

或許會降低約10~15%

but there we see an increase of about 1.3.

但目前是增加約1.3%

The second factor is the services we use.

第2 個因子是我們使用的服務。

This encompasses everything:

這包含了所有的事情，

the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.

我們吃的食品，衣服，電視，暖氣。

These are very good things:

這些是非常好的東西，

getting rid of poverty means providing these services

提供這些服務某種程度表示脫離了貧困

to almost everyone on the planet.

如果能遍及地球上所有的人。

And it's a great thing for this number to go up.

增加這數量其實是好事

In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,

在富有的世界，或許前10億人口，

we probably could cut back and use less,

我們或許能縮減享受以減少用量，

but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,

但是每年，這平均數目是上升的，

and so, over all, that will more than double

整體說來，將來會成為兩倍以上

the services delivered per person.

提供每人所享有的服務量

Here we have a very basic service:

現在我們來談一項非常基本的服務。

Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?

你房子內有照明讓你能做你的家庭作業嗎?

And, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out

實際上，很多孩子沒有，因此他們必須到屋外

and reading their school work under the street lamps.

並且在路燈下研讀他們的功課。

Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service,

再來，講到效率，E，指每種服務所需的能量，

here finally we have some good news.

總算有一些好消息。

We have something that's not going up.

某些事情並沒有增加。

Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,

透過各式各樣的發明和製作照明設備的新方法，

through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings --

透過不同的汽車類型，建築大樓的不同方法。

there are a lot of services where you can bring

有許多你所使用的服務

the energy for that service down quite substantially.

整體而言已大幅降低消耗的能量

Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.

某些項目甚至降了幾乎90%

There are other services like how we make fertilizer,

但仍有不少項目如肥料製造

or how we do air transport,

及空中運輸等

where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.

能夠改善的空間實在不大

And so, overall here, if we're optimistic,

因此概括的看，如果我們是樂觀主義者

we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.

我們有可能降低到三分之一，甚或到六分之一

But for these first three factors now,

但是現在對這些前3 個因素來說，

we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,

我們或許充其量從260億降到130億公頓，

and that just won't cut it.

且很難再往下降

So let's look at this fourth factor --

因此讓我們看第4因素 --

this is going to be a key one --

這將是關鍵的一項 --

and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.

每消耗單位能量所排出的CO2的數量。

And so the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?

問題是，你真的能讓它趨於零？

If you burn coal, no.

燃燒煤，不可能。

If you burn natural gas, no.

燃燒天然氣，不可能。

Almost every way we make electricity today,

幾乎我們今天用來發電的任一方法，

except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.

除了新興的再生能源和核能，都會排出CO2。

And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,

因此，我們以全球性角度考量將來必須做的，

is create a new system.

是創建一新系統。

And so, we need energy miracles.

我們需要能源奇蹟。

Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.

我這裡使用奇蹟這個詞，並不意味著不可能發生。

The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle.

微處理器是一個奇蹟。 個人電腦是一個奇蹟。

The Internet and its services are a miracle.

網際網路及其各項服務是一個奇蹟。

So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.

因此，在場各位已經共同參與創造過很多奇蹟。

Usually, we don't have a deadline,

通常，我們不設期限，

where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.

不要求你必須在某天讓奇蹟出現。

Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.

通常，你只要努力準備好，有些會發生，有些則沒有。

This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed

但在這件事上我們必須加足馬力

and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline.

並在緊迫的時限內創造出奇蹟

Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this?

現在，我在想，我如何才能辦得到？

Is there some kind of natural illustration,

是否有自然的圖示

some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"

或其他現成的範例可以讓人們想像?

I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos,

我回想起一年前我帶一罐蚊子來到這裡

and somehow people enjoyed that.

人們似乎覺得有趣

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

It really got them involved in the idea of,

這確實讓他們了解到

you know, there are people who live with mosquitos.

不少人與蚊子生活在一起

So, with energy, all I could come up with is this.

所以，關於能源,我所能想到的就是這個

I decided that releasing fireflies

我決定放些螢火蟲

would be my contribution to the environment here this year.

這可能是今年我對環境所做的貢獻

So here we have some natural fireflies.

所以我們將有一些天然的螢火蟲

I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar.

我被告知這不會咬人，事實上,它們可能根本無法離開罐子

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one,

現在有許多花拳繡腿的解決方案就如同剛剛的示範

but they don't really add up to much.

而它們實際的貢獻不大

We need solutions -- either one or several --

我們需要一個以上的方案

that have unbelievable scale

必須具有不可置信的規模

and unbelievable reliability,

以及難以想像的可靠性，

and, although there's many directions people are seeking,

雖然人們正追尋很多的方向，

I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.

我只看見5種方式，可能達到足夠的需求。

I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.

我已經放棄潮汐、地熱、核融合及生質能

Those may make some contribution,

這些當然都能有些貢獻

and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better,

但是必須比我預期的好很多、非常多才會有希望

but my key point here

我要說的重點是

is that we're going to have to work on each of these five,

我們將必須持續做這5項

and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,

我們不能因為氣餒而放棄它們

because they all have significant challenges.

也不能因為有各項顯著挑戰而放棄

Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels,

讓我們首先看石化燃料，

either burning coal or burning natural gas.

無論是燃煤或者燒天然氣。

What you need to do there, seems like it might be simple, but it's not,

必需要做的好像很簡單，但是實際很困難，

and that's to take all the CO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue,

必須在燃燒後將CO2從煙中取出

pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere,

加壓液化並放置於某處

and hope it stays there.

並希望能保存在那兒

Now we have some pilot things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level,

我們有一些先端的研究顯示可以做到百分之60到80的水準，

but getting up to that full percentage, that will be very tricky,

但是做到全部， 那將非常難，

and agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard,

此外選擇這些CO2同意存放的地點也將是艱難的課題，

but the toughest one here is this long-term issue.

但是最困難的是長期的問題。

Who's going to be sure?

誰能確定?

Who's going to guarantee something that is literally billions of times larger

誰又能對比核廢料或其他廢料多數十億倍的東西

than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?

提出保證？

This is a lot of volume.

這體積十分可觀

So that's a tough one.

因此艱困可期

Next would be nuclear.

接著談到核能

It also has three big problems:

也有三個大問題。

Cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high;

成本花費，特別是在嚴格管制的國家，是相對高的。

the issue of the safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong,

關於安全的問題，不會出錯聽起來感覺不錯，

that, even though you have these human operators,

但仍究有人為操作的問題，

that the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.

核燃料也不能用於武器

And then what do you do with the waste?

然後，如何處理廢料？

And, although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.

雖然它不是非常多，但是許多人在意此議題。

People need to feel good about it.

人們必須感到安心。

So three very tough problems that might be solvable,

這三個非常棘手的問題可能是能解決的

and so, should be worked on.

因此，應該持續努力。

The last three of the five, I've grouped together.

這五個中的其他三項，我打算一同討論。

These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.

這些是人們經常提到的所謂再生能源。

And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel --

他們實際上 -- 雖然它們很偉大，他們不需要燃料 --

they have some disadvantages.

但仍有一些不利條件。

One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies

其一是這些技術所能蒐集能源的密度

is dramatically less than a power plant.

大幅的少於一座電廠。

This is energy farming, so you're talking about many square miles,

這是能源農場，因此談的是好幾平方英里，

thousands of time more area than you think of as a normal energy plant.

數千倍於你所能想到一個一般電廠的區域。

Also, these are intermittent sources.

此外，這些是間歇能源。

The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day,

太陽光並非整天都有，也不是每日都能普照，

and, likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.

同樣，風也不是颳吹無歇。

And so, if you depend on these sources,

因此，若你要依賴於這些能源，

you have to have some way of getting the energy

你必須有得到能量的輔助方法

during those time periods that it's not available.

以彌補無法提供的時段

So, we've got big cost challenges here,

因此，我們有高成本的挑戰。

we have transmission challenges:

我們有輸送的挑戰。

for example, say this energy source is outside your country;

例如，能源來自國外，

you not only need the technology,

你不僅需要技術，

but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.

還必須處理來自別處能量的各項風險。

And, finally, this storage problem.

最後，還有能源貯存問題。

And, to dimensionalize this, I went through and looked at

為了要評估容量,我仔細審視查閱

all the types of batteries that get made --

目前各種型態的電池

for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything --

包括車用，電腦用，電話用，手電筒用及其他各種用途

and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses,

把那與世界使用的電能數量相比，

and what I found is that all the batteries we make now

我發現目前完成所有的電池

could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.

僅能儲存全世界不到10 分鐘所消耗的能量。

And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here,

因此，實際上，我們需要一個大的突破，

something that's going to be a factor of 100 better

那必須是一個100倍優於

than the approaches we have now.

我們現有努力的方法。

It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.

它並非不可能，但是也絕非是件容易的事。

Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source

因此當你努力於得到間歇能源

to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.

如上分析，頂多只能達到使用需求的20~30%

If you're counting on it for 100 percent,

如果要100%的依賴它

you need an incredible miracle battery.

你必須有奇蹟電池