Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    譯者: herman fu 審譯者: Ho-chung Chou

  • When the Industrial Revolution started,

    工業革命開始時,

  • the amount of carbon sitting underneath Britain in the form of coal

    埋藏在英國地下的

  • was as big as the amount of carbon sitting under Saudi Arabia

    煤礦蘊藏量相等於

  • in the form of oil.

    沙烏地阿拉伯的石油蘊藏量,

  • This carbon powered the Industrial Revolution,

    這些煤炭推動了工業革命,

  • it put the "Great" in Great Britain,

    讓大不列顛夠格稱為「大」國

  • and led to Britain's temporary world domination.

    也讓英國短暫地稱霸世界。

  • And then, in 1918, coal production in Britain peaked,

    時間來到1918年,英國的煤產量升至頂點,

  • and has declined ever since.

    此後便一蹶不振。

  • In due course, Britain started using oil and gas from the North Sea,

    其間,英國開始使用北海的

  • and in the year 2000,

    石油和石油氣,而2000年時,

  • oil and gas production from the North Sea also peaked,

    北海石油與石油氣的產量

  • and they're now on the decline.

    也達到了顛峰,現在正在衰退。

  • These observations about the finiteness

    觀察這些有限的、容易開採的、

  • of easily accessible, local, secure fossil fuels,

    本土的、安全的化石燃料,

  • is a motivation for saying, "Well, what's next?

    讓我們有股衝動要問:「接下來會怎樣?

  • What is life after fossil fuels going to be like?

    化石燃料用盡後,生活會變成怎樣呢?

  • Shouldn't we be thinking hard about how to get off fossil fuels?"

    我們不是應該殫思竭慮

  • Another motivation, of course, is climate change.

    擺脫化石燃料的方法嗎?」

  • And when people talk about life after fossil fuels

    另一個動機,當然是氣候的轉變。

  • and climate change action,

    而人們論及化石燃料耗盡後的生活,

  • I think there's a lot of fluff,

    與氣候變化的補救措施時,我認為其中有很多誤解,

  • a lot of greenwash, a lot of misleading advertising,

    很多表裡不一的廠商,很多誤導的廣告,

  • and I feel a duty as a physicist to try to guide people around the claptrap

    身為物理學家,我有責任

  • and help people understand the actions that really make a difference,

    指引群眾避開譁眾取寵的話術陷阱,

  • and to focus on ideas that do add up.

    協助群眾瞭解那些能實質改變現狀的行動,

  • Let me illustrate this

    並集中焦點於合情理的想法。

  • with what physicists call a back-of-envelope calculation.

    讓我以物理學家所謂的

  • We love back-of-envelope calculations.

    「信封背面的算式」來闡述此事。

  • You ask a question, write down some numbers,

    我們喜歡「信封背面的算式」。

  • and get an answer.

    你提出一條問題,你寫下一些數字,

  • It may not be very accurate, but it may make you say, "Hmm."

    然後你自己找答案。

  • So here's a question:

    這樣未必能作到精準,但可能會讓你發出沉吟之聲:

  • Imagine if we said, "Oh yes, we can get off fossil fuels.

    「嗯。」

  • We'll use biofuels. Problem solved.

    那麼問題來了:想像一下,如果

  • Transport ... We don't need oil anymore."

    我們說:「是啊,我們能擺脫化石燃料。

  • Well, what if we grew the biofuels for a road

    我們會使用生化燃料。問題解決。

  • on the grass verge at the edge of the road?

    運輸方面,我們不再需要石油了。」

  • How wide would the verge have to be for that to work out?

    好,我們用在路邊種草叢

  • OK, so let's put in some numbers.

    來培植生化原油如何?

  • Let's have our cars go at 60 miles per hour.

    需要多少面積的草叢才能成事呢?

  • Let's say they do 30 miles per gallon.

    好,我們來代入一些數字。

  • That's the European average for new cars.

    假設我們的汽車以每小時60英哩行駛,

  • Let's say the productivity of biofuel plantations

    假設這些車子每加侖可以行駛30英哩。

  • is 1,200 liters of biofuel per hectare per year.

    那是歐洲新車款的平均數。

  • That's true of European biofuels.

    就是說生化燃料製造廠的產量

  • And let's imagine the cars are spaced 80 meters apart from each other,

    是每年每平方頃1,200升的生化燃料。

  • and they're perpetually going along this road.

    這是歐洲生化燃料界的現況。

  • The length of the road doesn't matter,

    再假設每輛汽車的間距是80米,

  • because the longer the road, the more biofuel plantation.

    而且每輛車都是恆動地

  • What do we do with these numbers?

    行駛於道路。

  • Take the first number, divide by the other three, and get eight kilometers.

    道路的長度無所謂,因為道路愈長,

  • And that's the answer.

    我們的生化燃料廠就越多。

  • That's how wide the plantation would have to be,

    我們怎樣用這些數字運算呢?

  • given these assumptions.

    好,你們用第一個數字,

  • And maybe that makes you say, "Hmm.

    然後用餘下的三個數字除之,結果是八公里。

  • Maybe this isn't going to be quite so easy."

    那就是答案。

  • And it might make you think,

    那就是各廠房間該有的距離,

  • perhaps there's an issue to do with areas.

    基於以上的假設。

  • And in this talk, I'd like to talk about land areas, and ask:

    對此,你可能會說:「嗯,

  • Is there an issue about areas?

    這件事好像沒那麼容易。」

  • The answer is going to be yes, but it depends which country you are in.

    你也許還會想,關於土地面積

  • So let's start in the United Kingdom,

    可能有某些爭議,而今天這次演說,

  • since that's where we are today.

    我想談談土地面積,還要問問各位,

  • The energy consumption of the United Kingdom,

    土地面積是否有爭議?答案是有,

  • the total energy consumption -- not just transport, but everything --

    但需取決於你居住的國家。

  • I like to quantify it in lightbulbs.

    所以我們就英國開始,

  • It's as if we've all got 125 lightbulbs on all the time,

    因為那是我們現在住的地方。

  • 125 kilowatt-hours per day per person

    英國的能源消耗,

  • is the energy consumption of the UK.

    能源消耗總值,不只是運輸,而是囊括全部,

  • So there's 40 lightbulbs' worth for transport,

    我喜歡以燈泡來量化這數字。

  • 40 lightbulbs' worth for heating,

    那就像我們每個人全天開着125顆電燈泡,

  • and 40 lightbulbs' worth for making electricity,

    每人每天125千瓦,

  • and other things are relatively small,

    這就是英國的能源消耗量。

  • compared to those three big fish.

    所以共有40個電燈泡可用於交通,

  • It's actually a bigger footprint if we take into account

    40個電燈泡可用於暖氣。

  • the embodied energy in the stuff we import into our country as well.

    40個電燈泡可用於發電,

  • And 90 percent of this energy, today, still comes from fossil fuels,

    比起那三條「大魚」,

  • and 10 percent, only, from other, greener -- possibly greener -- sources,

    其他的相對來說小得多。

  • like nuclear power and renewables.

    其實,如果我們將進口產品的實際耗能也計算進去,

  • So.

    廠房所需的面積會更大

  • That's the UK.

    而今天這些能源有百分之九十

  • The population density of the UK is 250 people per square kilometer.

    仍來自化石燃料,只有百分之十

  • I'm now going to show you other countries by these same two measures.

    來自其他較環保的──可能較環保的──資源,

  • On the vertical axis, I'm going to show you how many lightbulbs --

    如核能和再生能源。

  • what our energy consumption per person is.

    因此,

  • We're at 125 lightbulbs per person,

    這就是英國的情況,而英國人口密度

  • and that little blue dot there is showing you the land area

    是每平方公里250人,

  • of the United Kingdom.

    現在我要讓你們看看其他國家

  • The population density is on the horizontal axis,

    以相同兩種計算方式的結果。

  • and we're 250 people per square kilometer.

    在垂直軸,我會指出

  • Let's add European countries in blue,

    有多少電燈泡──也就是我們的個人能源消耗量,

  • and you can see there's quite a variety.

    我們的個人消耗量是125個電燈泡,

  • I should emphasize, both of these axes are logarithmic;

    而那個小藍點表示的是

  • as you go from one gray bar to the next gray bar,

    英國的土地面積,

  • you're going up a factor of 10.

    而人口密度就在橫線軸,

  • Next, let's add Asia in red,

    我們每平方公里有250人。

  • the Middle East and North Africa in green,

    然後我們以藍色標示加入的歐洲國家,

  • sub-Saharan Africa in blue,

    你們會發現差異相當明顯。

  • black is South America,

    我必須強調,這兩條軸線

  • purple is Central America,

    都是對數。你們從這條灰線

  • and then in pukey-yellow, we have North America,

    移到另一條灰線時,差異是10的平方。

  • Australia and New Zealand.

    再來,我們用紅色標示加入的亞洲,

  • You can see the great diversity of population densities

    以綠色標示中東和北非,

  • and of per capita consumptions.

    以藍色標示次撒哈拉非洲,

  • Countries are different from each other.

    黑色是南美洲,

  • Top left, we have Canada and Australia, with enormous land areas,

    紫色是中美洲,

  • very high per capita consumption -- 200 or 300 lightbulbs per person --

    然後是噁心的黃色,北美洲、

  • and very low population densities.

    澳洲和新西蘭在此。

  • Top right: Bahrain has the same energy consumption

    你們可看到,這些地區的人口密度

  • per person, roughly, as Canada --

    以及人均消耗量的差異極大。

  • over 300 lightbulbs per person,

    每國家各有不同之處。

  • but their population density is a factor of 300 times greater,

    左上方是加拿大和澳洲,土地面積龐大,

  • 1,000 people per square kilometer.

    人均消耗量也極高,

  • Bottom right: Bangladesh has the same population density as Bahrain,

    每人200 至300個電燈泡,

  • but consumes 100 times less per person.

    而人口密度非常低。

  • Bottom left: well, there's no one.

    右上方的巴林的人平均能量消耗

  • But there used to be a whole load of people.

    幾乎和加拿大ㄧ樣。

  • Here's another message from this diagram.

    每人超過300個電燈泡,

  • I've added on little blue tails behind Sudan, Libya,

    但是這國家的人口密度高了300倍,

  • China, India, Bangladesh.

    每平方公里1,000人。

  • That's 15 years of progress.

    右下方,孟加拉和巴林人口密度相若,

  • Where were they 15 years ago, and where are they now?

    但人平均消耗量只有百分之ㄧ。

  • And the message is,

    左下方,嗯,罕無人煙。

  • most countries are going to the right, and they're going up.

    但這裏從前有一大群人。

  • Up and to the right: bigger population density

    這張圖表還蘊藏了另一則訊息。

  • and higher per capita consumption.

    我在蘇丹、利比亞、中國、印度、孟加拉

  • So, we may be off in the top right-hand corner, slightly unusual,

    後頭加上了藍色細線。

  • the United Kingdom accompanied by Germany,

    那是15年來的進展。

  • Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands,

    15年前他們在何方?而今天他們又在哪兒呢?

  • and a bunch of other slightly odd countries,

    另一個訊息是,大部分國家都在向右移,

  • but many other countries are coming up and to the right to join us.

    還會向上移。

  • So we're a picture, if you like,

    上右方,人口密度更高

  • of what the future energy consumption

    人均消耗量也更高。

  • might be looking like in other countries, too.

    所以,也許我們還沒到最右邊的上面,

  • I've also added in this diagram now some pink lines

    有點奇怪的是,英國之後接著

  • that go down and to the right.

    德國、日本、南韓、荷蘭,

  • Those are lines of equal power consumption per unit area,

    和一連串有點古怪的國家,

  • which I measure in watts per square meter.

    不過很多其他國家正向右上方移動,

  • So, for example, the middle line there, 0.1 watts per square meter,

    準備加入我們。

  • is the energy consumption per unit area of Saudi Arabia,

    所以如果要用比喻,我們像是一種未來的寫照,

  • Norway, Mexico in purple, and Bangladesh 15 years ago.

    那些國家也可能會步上我們的後塵。

  • Half of the world's population lives in countries

    現在我在圖表上又加了幾條粉紅線,

  • that are already above that line.

    由左上向右下。

  • The United Kingdom is consuming 1.25 watts per square meter.

    用這幾條線劃分單位土地耗電量相同的區域,

  • So is Germany, and Japan is consuming a bit more.

    計算單位是每平方米消耗的瓦數。

  • So, let's now say why this is relevant.

    所以,舉例來說,中間線那條線,

  • Why is it relevant?

    每平方米0.1瓦,是沙地阿拉伯、挪威、

  • Well, we can measure renewables in the same units

    墨西哥的單位土地能源消耗,以紫色顯示,

  • and other forms of power production in the same units.

    和15年前的孟加拉,

  • Renewables is one of the leading ideas

    而世界人口有一半都住在

  • for how we could get off our 90 percent fossil-fuel habit.

    這條線右上方的國家。

  • So here come some renewables.

    英國目前的消耗量是

  • Energy crops deliver half a watt per square meter

    每平方米1.25瓦。

  • in European climates.

    德國亦然,而日本的消耗量稍高。

  • What does that mean?

    好,我們現在來

  • You might have anticipated that result,

    說說為何這件事意義重大,為何意義重大?

  • given what I told you about the biofuel plantation a moment ago.

    我們用相同面積使用再生能源來計算,

  • Well, we consume 1.25 watts per square meter.

    或是相同面積使用其他形式製造的能源。

  • What this means is,

    我們使用的能源有90%要依賴石化燃料,

  • even if you covered the whole of the United Kingdom with energy crops,

    使用再生能源是劃時代的解決方案之ㄧ。

  • you couldn't match today's energy consumption.

    我們現在有幾種再生能源。

  • Wind power produces a bit more -- 2.5 watts per square meter.

    歐洲地區的農產能源

  • But that's only twice as big as 1.25 watts per square meter.

    每平方米可提供0.5瓦。

  • So that means if you wanted, literally, to produce total energy consumption

    這代表什麼?你們可能猜到答案了,