after these incredible speeches

我真正想說的是

and ideas that are being spread,

聽過這麼多精彩的演講

I am in the awkward position

和想法後

of being here to talk to you today

我很尷尬

about television.

今天要跟你們討論這個

So most everyone watches TV.

關於電視的話題

We like it. We like some parts of it.

幾乎人人都會看電視

Here in America, people actually love TV.

我們喜歡電視，它的部分內容

The average American watches TV

在美國，人們其實很愛電視

for almost 5 hours a day.

他們平均一天

Okay?

看將近五個小時的電視

Now I happen to make my living these days in television,

沒錯吧?

so for me, that's a good thing.

而我剛好是靠電視為生的

But a lot of people don't love it so much.

所以對我來說，這是件好事

They, in fact, berate it.

但很多人其實不是那麼喜歡電視

They call it stupid,

他們譴責電視

and worse, believe me.

認為它很愚蠢

My mother, growing up,

或更甚之，相信我

she called it the "idiot box."

在我小的時候，我母親

But my idea today is not to debate

就稱電視為「蠢蛋盒」

whether there's such a thing as good TV or bad TV;

而我今天不是要跟大家爭辯

my idea today

電視是否分好壞

is to tell you that I believe

而是

television has a conscience.

要告訴各位我認為

So why I believe that television has a conscience

電視是有意識的

is that I actually believe

我這麼認為的原因是

that television directly reflects

我認為

the moral, political,

電視反映出我們國家對於

social and emotional need states of our nation --

道德、政治

that television is how we actually disseminate

社會和情感的需求狀態

our entire value system.

電視其實是我們傳播

So all these things are uniquely human,

整個價值觀的工具

and they all add up

這些都是人類才有的事物

to our idea of conscience.

他們匯流成

Now today, we're not talking about good and bad TV.

我們所說的意識

We're talking about popular TV.

所以今天我們不講電視的好壞

We're talking about top-10 Nielsen-rated shows

我們來聊熱門節目

over the course of 50 years.

我們來聊過去五十年間，尼爾森收視率調查

How do these Nielsen ratings

排名前十名的節目

reflect not just what you've heard about,

尼爾森收視率調查

which is the idea of our social, collective unconscious,

如何反應出所謂的

but how do these top-10 Nielsen-rated shows

社會集體無意識?

over 50 years

尼爾森收視率調查又是如何在

reflect the idea

過去五十年中

of our social conscience?

反應出

How does television evolve over time,

我們社會的意識?

and what does this say about our society?

電視是如何隨著時間演化的?

Now speaking of evolution,

而這個演變又意味著什麼?

from basic biology, you probably remember

既然講到了演化

that the animal kingdom, including humans,

你大概還記得基礎生物課中

have four basic primal instincts.

動物，包含人類

You have hunger; you have sex; you have power;

有四項基本原始本能

and you have the urge for acquisitiveness.

飢渴、性、力量

As humans, what's important to remember

及占有慾

is that we've developed, we've evolved over time

身為人類的我們要記得

to temper, or tame,

我們已經隨著時間演化，是先進的

these basic animal instincts.

我們能控制

We have the capacity to laugh and cry.

這些動物基本的本能

We feel awe, we feel pity.

我們能哭、能笑

That is separate and apart

也會感到恐懼與憐憫

from the animal kingdom.

這就是人類與動物

The other thing about human beings

不同的地方

is that we love to be entertained.

人類的另外一個特徵就是

We love to watch TV.

喜歡娛樂

This is something that clearly separates us

人們熱愛看電視

from the animal kingdom.

這是人類跟動物間

Animals might love to play,

很明顯的差異

but they don't love to watch.

動物可能喜歡玩耍

So I had an ambition

但是牠們不喜歡只是看

to discover what could be understood

所以我有個很大願望

from this uniquely human relationship

我想知道

between television programs

我們從人類與

and the human conscious.

電視節目

Why has television entertainment evolved the way it has?

和人類意識間能學到什麼

I kind of think of it

為什麼電視節目是這樣演化的?

as this cartoon devil or angel

我認為電視就像是

sitting on our shoulders.

卡通裡面的天使與魔鬼

Is television literally functioning

它就坐在我們的肩膀上

as our conscience,

電視真的扮演著

tempting us and rewarding us at the same time?

我們的意識

So to begin to answer these questions,

同時誘惑我們又獎勵著我們嗎?

we did a research study.

為了回答這些問題

We went back 50 years

我們做了一個研究

to the 1959/1960 television season.

我們倒轉時光五十年

We surveyed the top-20 Nielsen shows

來到1959/1960年的電視季

every year for 50 years --

我們研究過去五十年間每一年的

a thousand shows.

尼爾森收視排名前二十名

We talked to over 3,000 individuals --

總共一千個節目

almost 3,600 --

我們訪談人數超過3,000--

aged 18 to 70,

幾乎到3600人--

and we asked them how they felt emotionally.

年齡從18到70歲都有

How did you feel

我們問他們對於電視的感覺

watching every single one of these shows?

當他們在收看排行榜中的每個節目時

Did you feel a sense of moral ambiguity?

他們的感覺是怎麼樣的?

Did you feel outrage? Did you laugh?

他們有感到道德的灰色地帶嗎?

What did this mean for you?

感到憤怒或者開心呢?

So to our global TED audiences,

而這對他們的意義為何?

I want to say that this was a U.S. sample.

我想對TED全球的觀眾聲明

But as you can see,

這個調查是以美國為調查對象

these emotional need states are truly universal.

但很顯然的

And on a factual basis,

這些情感的需求狀態是全球性的

over 80 percent of the U.S.'s most popular shows

根據事實顯示

are exported around the world.

美國最熱門的節目中有百分之八十

So I really hope our global audiences

在其他國家也可以收看得到

can relate.

所以我希望全球的觀眾都能

Two acknowledgments

體認

before our first data slide:

在給你們看數據前

For inspiring me

我想感謝兩個人

to even think about the idea of conscience

第一位激發我

and the tricks that conscience can play on us on a daily basis,

想出電視的意識

I thank legendary rabbi, Jack Stern.

以及它在生活中對我們的影響

And for the way in which I'm going to present the data,

謝謝傳奇性的拉比捷克·史登

I want to thank TED community superstar Hans Rosling,

下一位幫助我想出呈現我的數據的方式

who you may have just seen.

謝謝TED社群的超級巨星韓施·洛施琳

Okay, here we go.

她就是你們剛才所見到的那位

So here you see,

好，我們來看數據

from 1960 to 2010,

這裡是

the 50 years of our study.

1960年到2010年間

Two things we're going to start with --

我們研究的五十年間

the inspiration state and the moral ambiguity state,

我們從兩件事開始

which, for this purpose,

激勵狀態和道德不確定狀態

we defined inspiration

為了研究的目的

as television shows that uplift me,

我們將激勵狀態定義為

that make me feel much more positive about the world.

鼓舞人心的節目

Moral ambiguity are televisions shows

這類節目讓我們更正面的看待這個世界

in which I don't understand

道德不確定狀態的節目是那些

the difference between right and wrong.

讓我無法清楚界定

As we start, you see in 1960

是非對錯的節目

inspiration is holding steady.

在1960年

That's what we're watching TV for.

激勵狀態是穩定的

Moral ambiguity starts to climb.

那就是我們在電視中尋求的

Right at the end of the 60s,

道德不確定狀態開始攀升

moral ambiguity is going up,

就在60年代末

inspiration is kind of on the wane.

道德不確定狀態開始上升

Why?

激勵狀態則稍微下滑

The Cuban Missile Crisis, JFK is shot,

為什麼?

the Civil Rights movement,

古巴導彈危機、約翰甘迺迪被刺殺

race riots, the Vietnam War,

民權運動

MLK is shot, Bobby Kennedy is shot,

種族暴動、越戰

Watergate.

馬丁路德．金被刺殺、羅伯甘迺迪被刺殺

Look what happens.

水門案

In 1970, inspiration plummets.

你們再看後續

Moral ambiguity takes off.

1970年時激勵狀態急速下降

They cross,

道德不確定狀態開始上升

but Ronald Reagan, a telegenic president, is in office.

它們交叉了

It's trying to recover.

但很上相的雷根總統開始執政

But look, it can't:

線性試著回復

AIDS, Iran-Contra,

但失敗了

the Challenger disaster, Chernobyl.

愛滋病、伊朗軍售案

Moral ambiguity becomes the dominant meme in television

挑戰者號爆炸、車諾比核災

from 1990 for the next 20 years.

在1990年起的往後20年中

Take a look at this.

道德不確定狀態成為電視節目的主導型態

This chart is going to document a very similar trend.

看看這個

But in this case, we have comfort -- the bubble in red --

這張表也會呈現非常類似的趨勢

social commentary and irreverence

但在這個例子中，我們加入了安撫狀態，也就是圖中的紅點

in blue and green.

社會輿論狀態及反諷狀態

Now this time on TV

分別為藍點和綠點

you have "Bonanza," don't forget, you have "Gunsmoke,"

當時電視上播放的有

you have "Andy Griffith,"

《牧野風雲》、還有別忘了，《荒野大鏢客》

you have domestic shows all about comfort.

《安迪格里菲斯秀》

This is rising. Comfort stays whole.

及其他安慰人心的本土節目

Irreverence starts to rise.

反諷狀態急升，安撫狀態變化不大

Social commentary is all of a sudden spiking up.

反諷狀態持續上升

You get to 1969, and look what happens.

社會輿論狀態突然急遽上升

You have comfort, irreverence, and social commentary,

看看到了1969年發生什麼了

not only battling it out in our society,

安撫性、無禮性及社會輿論性節目

but you literally have two establishment shows --

爭相在社會中搶出頭

"Gunsmoke" and "Gomer Pyle" --

但是有兩個節目卻絲毫不被影響

in 1969 are the number-two- and number-three-rated television shows.

《荒野大鏢客》和喜劇《高摩·派爾》

What's number one?

它們在1969年的收視率分別為二、三名

The socially irreverent hippie show,

誰是第一名呢?

"Rowan and Martin's Laugh-In."

反諷社會的嬉皮節目

They're all living together, right.

《羅文和馬丁來說笑》

Viewers had responded dramatically.

它們都是同一個時期的節目，對吧?

Look at this green spike in 1966

觀眾的反應是很戲劇化的

to a bellwether show.

請看1966年綠色的上升線型

When you guys hear this industry term, a breakout hit,

這是很具指標性的

what does that mean?

當你們聽到電視產業的術語「突破性節目」

It means in the 1966 television season,

你們知道它的涵義嗎?

The "Smothers Brothers" came out of nowhere.

這代表在1966年的電視季中

This was the first show

《史莫瑟兄弟》這齣喜劇突然大受歡迎

that allowed viewers to say,

這是第一個

"My God,

讓觀眾能在節目上說

I can comment on how I feel about the Vietnam War,

天哪！

about the presidency, through television?"

我可以在電視上發表我對越戰

That's what we mean by a breakout show.

及總統的看法耶！

So then, just like the last chart, look what happens.

這就是我們所說的突破性電視節目

In 1970,

再來，就像上一張圖一樣

the dam bursts. The dam bursts.

1970年時

Comfort is no longer why we watch television.

整個趨勢都變了，完全不一樣了

Social commentary and irreverence

安撫狀態不再是我們看電視的原因了

rise throughout the 70s.

社會輿論及反諷狀態

Now look at this.

在70年代一直上升

The 70s means who? Norman Lear.

請看這裡

You have "All in the Family," "Sanford and Son,"

70年代的代表是誰?節目製作人諾曼·里爾

and the dominant show --

《全家福》、《桑福德和兒子》

in the top-10 for the entire 70s --

和最熱門的節目

"MAS*H."

在70年代一枝獨秀的節目

In the entire 50 years

《風流軍醫俏護士》

of television that we studied,

在我們研究的

seven of 10 shows

五十年電視史中

ranked most highly for irreverence

十大反諷型節目中

appeared on air during the Vietnam War,

就有七個節目是出現在

five of the top-10 during the Nixon administration.

越戰期間

Only one generation, 20 years in,

這當中有五個出現在尼克森執政期間

and we discovered,

只需一個世代，短短20年的時間

Wow! TV can do that?

然後我們發現

It can make me feel this?

哇！電視可以這樣?

It can change us?

它可以讓我有這樣的感受?

So to this very, very savvy crowd,

它可以改變我們?

I also want to note

我想對在場非常優秀的各位說

the digital folks did not invent disruptive.

我也想指出

Archie Bunker was shoved out of his easy chair

破壞並不是數位時代的產物

along with the rest of us

對於喜劇演員亞奇·方克的節目

40 years ago.

在四十年前被比下去

This is a quick chart. Here's another attribute:

我們同樣感到傻眼

fantasy and imagination,

這張圖很容易懂。裡面有另一個狀態

which are shows defined as,

奇幻想像狀態

"takes me out of my everyday realm"

這類節目的定義是

and "makes me feel better."

「帶我脫離現實生活」

That's mapped against the red dot, unemployment,

「讓我感到更好」

which is a simple Bureau of Labor Department statistic.

和它對照的紅點是失業率

You'll see

根據簡易的勞工部統計局數據所做的

that every time fantasy and imagination shows rise,

可以看出

it maps to a spike in unemployment.

每次奇幻想像狀態上升時

Do we want to see shows

都會遇到失業率上升

about people saving money and being unemployed?

我們想看

No. In the 70s

人們失業和努力存錢的節目嗎?

you have the bellwether show "The Bionic Woman"

才不要。70年代的

that rocketed into the top-10 in 1973,

指標節目是《無敵女金剛》

followed by the "Six Million-Dollar Man" and "Charlie's Angels."

它的收視率在1973年飆升至前十名

Another spike in the 1980s --

接著是《無敵金剛》和《霹靂嬌娃》

another spike in shows about control and power.

另一個急遽的上升是在80年代

What were those shows?

當時是關於權勢的節目的高峰

Glamorous and rich.

代表性節目有那些?

"Dallas," "Fantasy Island."

紙醉金迷的

Incredible mapping of our national psyche

《朱門恩怨》、《夢幻成真》

with some hard and fast facts:

它們呈現了國人的心理狀態

unemployment.

而且證據確鑿

So here you are, in my favorite chart,

就是失業率

because this is our last 20 years.

再來是我最喜歡的表

Whether or not you're in my business,

它顯示過去二十年

you have surely heard or read

不論你們是不是跟我同業

of the decline of the thing called the three-camera sitcom

你們一定聽過不然也會讀過

and the rise of reality TV.

三機拍攝的情境喜劇的沒落

Well, as we say in the business,

以及實境節目的崛起

X marks the spot.

行話會說

The 90s -- the big bubbles of humor --

叉叉是關鍵

we're watching "Friends," "Frasier," "Cheers" and "Seinfeld."

而90年代中，大的藍點表示幽默狀態

Everything's good, low unemployment.

如《六人行》、《歡樂一家親》、《歡樂酒店》和《歡樂單身派對》

But look: X marks the spot.

一切都很順利，失業率很低

In 2001,

但請注意: 叉叉是關鍵

the September 2001 television season,

2001年時

humor succumbs to judgment once and for all.

2001年9月的電視季

Why not?

幽默狀態被評判型超越了

We had a 2000 presidential election

有何不可?

decided by the Supreme Court.

2000年時最高法院決定了

We had the bursting of the tech bubble.

總統大選的結果

We had 9/11.

科技泡泡破滅

Anthrax becomes part of the social lexicon.

911事件

Look what happens when we keep going.

炭疽菌成為基本單字

At the turn of the century, the Internet takes off,

接下來

reality television has taken hold.

在2000年初，網路起飛了

What do people want in their TV then?

實境節目的改變不大