did not say,

馬丁•路德•金恩

"I have a nightmare,"

從沒說：

when he inspired the civil rights movements.

「我有一個夢魘」

He said, "I have a dream."

當他鼓舞美國民權運動時

And I have a dream.

他說：「我有一個夢。」

I have a dream that we can stop thinking

我也有一個夢

that the future will be a nightmare,

我夢想有一天

and this is going to be a challenge,

我們不再想著 未來是個夢魘

because, if you think

這是一項挑戰

of every major blockbusting film of recent times,

因為，如果你想想

nearly all of its visions for humanity

近來每部賣座電影

are apocalyptic.

它們對人類的看法

I think this film

多半具有末世意味

is one of the hardest watches of modern times, "The Road."

我認為《末路浩劫》(The Road)

It's a beautiful piece of filmmaking,

是當代最艱難的電影之一

but everything is desolate,

它是一部很美的電影作品

everything is dead.

然而一片荒涼

And just a father and son

所有一切都死了

trying to survive, walking along the road.

只剩一個父親和兒子

And I think the environmental movement

試圖求生，孤獨走在路上

of which I am a part of

而我認為，我所參與的

has been complicit

環保運動

in creating this vision of the future.

一起參與謀劃了

For too long,

製造這般未來圖景

we have peddled a nightmarish vision

長久以來

of what's going to happen.

我們兜售噩夢般的憧憬

We have focused on the worst-case scenario.

警告世人即將發生的事

We have focused on the problems.

我們把心思放在最糟糕的情況

And we have not thought enough

我們關注於"問題"

about the solutions.

卻沒有想出足夠的

We've used fear, if you like,

解決方案

to grab people's attention.

我們使用恐懼

And any psychologist will tell you

攫取人們的注意力

that fear in the organism

任何心理學家都會告訴你

is linked to flight mechanism.

生物體內的恐懼

It's part of the fight and flight mechanism,

連結著逃跑機制

that when an animal is frightened --

它是掙脫與逃跑機制的一部份

think of a deer.

當動物受到驚嚇時 --

A deer freezes very, very still,

想想鹿就知道

poised to run away.

一隻鹿僵直不動

And I think that's what we're doing

準備逃跑

when we're asking people to engage with our agenda

我想那正是我們在做的

around environmental degradation and climate change.

當我們要求人們參與

People are freezing and running away

有關環境惡化和氣候變遷的議程時

because we're using fear.

人們戰慄、逃跑

And I think the environmental movement has to grow up

因為我們使用恐懼

and start to think about

而我認為，環保運動應該成長

what progress is.

開始思考

What would it be like to be improving the human lot?

何謂進步？

And one of the problems that we face, I think,

思考改善人類的廣泛處境會是怎麼一回事？

is that the only people that have cornered the market

我想，我們面對的一個問題是

in terms of progress

人們只關注於

is a financial definition of what progress is,

在市場上取得進步

an economic definition of what progress is --

這是金融上的定義

that somehow,

一個經濟上的進步意謂著 --

if we get the right numbers to go up,

基於某種未知的原因

we're going to be better off,

如果我們有個不斷上升的正確數字

whether that's on the stock market,

我們的生活就變得更好

whether that's with GDP

無論是關於股市

and economic growth,

或國內生產毛額

that somehow life is going to get better.

只要經濟成長

This is somehow appealing to human greed

不管怎樣，生活必定更好

instead of fear --

某種意義上，它訴諸的是人類貪婪

that more is better.

而非恐懼 --

Come on. In the Western world, we have enough.

擁有愈多，即愈好

Maybe some parts of the world don't, but we have enough.

拜託，在西方世界裡，我們有的已經夠多了

And we've know for a long time that this is not a good measure

也許世上有些地方不是，但我們的生活已經夠好了

of the welfare of nations.

而且長久以來，我們已知，這並不是個用來衡量

In fact, the architect of our national accounting system,

國家福利的良好指標

Simon Kuznets, in the 1930s,

事實上，我們國家會計系統的設計

said that, "A nation's welfare

Simon Kuznets，在1930年間

can scarcely be inferred from their national income."

曾說:「國家的福利

But we've created a national accounting system

幾乎能夠以其國民收入推斷。」

which is firmly based on production

但我們創造了一個國家會計系統

and producing stuff.

是完全建基於生產、

And indeed, this is probably historical, and it had its time.

與生產物品之上的

In the second World War, we needed to produce a lot of stuff.

的確，這也許是歷史所造成，過去曾是如此

And indeed, we were so successful at producing certain types of stuff

第二次世界大戰時，我們必須生產大量物品

that we destroyed a lot of Europe, and we had to rebuild it afterwards.

的確，我們也如此成功地，生產出某些產品

And so our national accounting system

我們摧毀歐洲許多地區，之後也必須加以重建

became fixated on what we can produce.

因此，我們的國家會計系統變得

But as early as 1968,

關注、著迷於我們可以生產的物品之上

this visionary man, Robert Kennedy,

但到了1968年

at the start of his ill-fated presidential campaign,

這個有遠見的人 -- Robert Kennedy

gave the most eloquent deconstruction

在他不幸的總統競選初期

of gross national product

給予了國民生產毛額(GNP)

that ever has been.

一次前所未見的

And he finished his talk with the phrase,

最具說服力的重擊

that, "The gross national product

他以這句話作為演說結尾:

measures everything except that

「國民生產毛額可以衡量

which makes life worthwhile."

生活一切事物，但它無法衡量

How crazy is that? That our measure of progress,

你生命的價值。」

our dominant measure of progress in society,

多麼瘋狂？我們用來衡量進步的指標

is measuring everything

我們主要用來衡量社會進步的工具

except that which makes life worthwhile?

可以測量所有一切事物

I believe, if Kennedy was alive today,

除了 那使你生活變得值得的東西？

he would be asking statisticians such as myself

我相信，假使 Kennedy 今天仍健在

to go out and find out

他會要求像我這樣的統計學家

what makes life worthwhile.

去發現尋找

He'd be asking us to redesign

那使生命具有意義的東西

our national accounting system

他也許會要求我們重新設計

to be based upon

國家會計系統

such important things as social justice,

使它根據於

sustainability

一些重要的事，好比社會正義、

and people's well-being.

永續發展、

And actually, social scientists have already gone out

和人民福利

and asked these questions around the world.

事實上，社會科學家已經開始

This is from a global survey.

在世界各地詢問這些問題了

It's asking people, what do they want.

這是從一個全球性調查中得來的資料

And unsurprisingly, people all around the world

它詢問人們，他們想要什麽？

say that what they want

當然，世界各地的人們

is happiness, for themselves,

說他們所要的

for their families, their children,

是快樂，爲了他們、

their communities.

爲了他們的家人、孩子、

Okay, they think money is slightly important.

以及社區

It's there, but it's not nearly as important as happiness,

好吧，他們覺得錢有點重要

and it's not nearly as important as love.

它存在，但不如快樂重要

We all need to love and be loved in life.

也不如愛來得重要

It's not nearly as important as health.

在生命中，我們都需要愛與被愛

We want to be healthy and live a full life.

它不若健康一般重要

These seem to be natural human aspirations.

我們想要一個健康完滿的人生

Why are statisticians not measuring these?

這些似乎是人類的自然願望

Why are we not thinking of the progress of nations in these terms,

爲什麽統計學家不衡量這些東西？

instead of just how much stuff we have?

為什麼我們不以這些事物思考國家的進步？

And really, this is what I've done with my adult life --

反而僅僅衡量我們擁有多少東西？

is think about how do we measure happiness,

真的，這是我在長大後所做的事 --

how do we measure well-being,

思考如何測量快樂、

how can we do that within environmental limits.

我們如何衡量幸福、

And we created, at the organization that I work for,

在環境的限制之下，如何才能做到這一點

the New Economics Foundation,

於是，在我工作的組織 --

something we call the Happy Planet Index,

新經濟基金會(New Economics Foundation)

because we think people should be happy and the planet should be happy.

我們創造了一個叫「快樂星球指數」的東西

Why don't we create a measure of progress that shows that?

因為我們認為，人們應該感到快樂，這個星球應該是快樂的

And what we do,

為何我們不創造一個衡量此項發展的工具呢？

is we say that the ultimate outcome of a nation

而我們所做的

is how successful is it

我們說，一個國家的最終成果

at creating happy and healthy lives for its citizens.

取決於她如何成功地

That should be the goal

為她的公民創造快樂和健康的生活

of every nation on the planet.

那應當才是這個星球上

But we have to remember

每個國家的目標所在

that there's a fundamental input to that,

但我們必須記得

and that is how many of the planet's resources we use.

這裡有個基本的投入

We all have one planet. We all have to share it.

意即，我們使用多少地球資源

It is the ultimate scarce resource,

我們只有一個地球，我們必須共享

the one planet that we share.

這是我們所共享的

And economics is very interested in scarcity.

一個資源終究會枯竭的地球

When it has a scarce resource

經濟學對稀少性非常感興趣

that it wants to turn into

當擁有一種稀少性資源時

a desirable outcome,

人們希望把它轉變為

it thinks in terms of efficiency.

一個理想的工業成果

It thinks in terms of how much bang do we get for our buck.

經濟學思考效益

And this is a measure of how much well-being

它思考我們需要付出多少力，才能獲得多少錢

we get for our planetary resource use.

而這可以作為一個衡量工具:

It is an efficiency measure.

我們使用多少地球資源，以獲得多少幸福

And probably the easiest way to show you that,

它是一個有關效率的測量工具

is to show you this graph.

最簡單的呈現方式，也許就是

Running horizontally along the graph,

向各位展示這個圖表

is "ecological footprint,"

圖表的水平方向

which is a measure of how much resources we use

是「生態足跡 （ecological footprint）」

and how much pressure we put on the planet.

它度量我們使用了多少資源

More is bad.

以及我們在地球上施加了多少壓力

Running vertically upwards,

愈多即是壞

is a measure called "happy life years."

垂直向上的一側

It's about the well-being of nations.

是一個我們稱之為「快樂生活年份（happy life years）」的指標

It's like a happiness adjusted life-expectancy.

它與國家福利有關

It's like quality and quantity of life in nations.

它就像一個經過快樂調整的預期壽命

And the yellow dot there you see, is the global average.

如同國家的生活質量和數量

Now, there's a huge array of nations

你們所看到的黃點，是全球平均水平

around that global average.

現在，有一批數量龐大的國家

To the top right of the graph,

大約介於這個全球平均值左右

are countries which are doing reasonably well and producing well-being,

圖表的右上方

but they're using a lot of planet to get there.

是那些做得還不錯、福利甚佳的國家

They are the U.S.A.,

但透過消耗許多地球資源，才到達的

other Western countries going across in those triangles

它們是美國、

and a few Gulf states in there actually.

和其他西方國家形成這些三角

Conversely, at the bottom left of the graph,

以及一小部份的海灣國家夾雜其中

are countries that are not producing much well-being --

相反地，圖的左下角

typically, sub-Saharan Africa.

這些國家並沒有產出多少福利 --

In Hobbesian terms,

它們通常是撒哈拉以南非洲

life is short and brutish there.

以霍布斯的話來說:

The average life expectancy in many of these countries

在那裡，生命是短暫與殘酷的存在

is only 40 years.

許多這些國家裡的平均壽命

Malaria, HIV/AIDS

只有四十年

are killing a lot of people

瘧疾、愛滋

in these regions of the world.

在這些區域裡

But now for the good news!

奪走許多人的生命

There are some countries up there, yellow triangles,

但現在有個好消息！

that are doing better than global average,

上面有些國家，黃色三角這裡

that are heading up towards the top left of the graph.

比全球平均值還高

This is an aspirational graph.

它們正朝著圖表的右上方前進

We want to be top left, where good lives don't cost the earth.

這是一個理想的圖形

They're Latin American.

我們想要處於左上方，在那裡好生活並不消耗地球

The country on its own up at the top

它們是拉丁美洲

is a place I haven't been to.

位於最上方的國家

Maybe some of you have.

是一個我從沒去過的地方

Costa Rica.

也許你們之中有人去過

Costa Rica --

哥斯大黎加

average life expectancy is 78-and-a-half years.

哥斯大黎加 --

That is longer than in the USA.

平均預期壽命為 78.5 歲

They are, according to the latest Gallup world poll,

比美國人活的要久

the happiest nation on the planet --

根據蓋洛普最新的調查，

than anybody; more than Switzerland and Denmark.

在這星球上，最幸福的國家 --

They are the happiest place.

比任何地方都幸福，比瑞士、丹麥還快樂

They are doing that

是最幸福的地方

on a quarter of the resources

他們只消耗

that are used typically in [the] Western world --

西方國家所用掉的

a quarter of the resources.

四分之一資源 --

What's going on there?

四分之一的資源

What's happening in Costa Rica?

那裡發生了什麽事？

We can look at some of the data.

在哥斯大黎加發生了什麽事?

99 percent of their electricity comes from renewable resources.

我們可以看看一些數據

Their government is one of the first to commit

99%的電力來自可再生能源

to be carbon neutral by 2021.

他們的政府是率先承諾

They abolished the army

在2021年達到碳中和的國家

in 1949 --

他們1949年

1949.

就廢除了軍隊

And they invested in social programs --

1949年

health and education.

接著，他們投資於社會計劃 --

They have one of the highest literacy rates in Latin America

健康與教育

and in the world.

他們是拉丁美洲國家中，識字率最高的國家之一

And they have that Latin vibe, don't they.

也是世界數一數二高識字率的國家

They have the social connectedness.

他們也充滿拉丁活力，可不是？

(Laughter)

他們重視社會連結

The challenge is, that possibly -- and the thing we might have to think about --

（笑聲）

is that the future

挑戰在於，很有可能 -- 我們必須思考一下 --

might not be North American,

未來

might not be Western European.

可能不見得屬於北美

It might be Latin American.

不見得是歐洲

And the challenge, really,

未來很可能就是拉丁美洲。

is to pull the global average up here.

這項挑戰，的確，

That's what we need to do.

是要把全球平均值移到了這裡

And if we're going to do that,

那就是我們應當做的事

we need to pull countries from the bottom,

倘若我們要做這件事

and we need to pull countries from the right of the graph.

我們必須拉動底層的國家

And then we're starting to create a happy planet.

把國家從圖表的右側拉出

That's one way of looking at it.

接著，我們才能開始創造一個快樂星球

Another way of looking at it is looking at time trends.

那是看待它的一個方式

We don't have good data going back for every country in the world,

另一個方式，是看看時間趨勢

but for some of the richest countries, the OECD group, we do.

我們沒有足夠數據，讓我們研究世上每個國家

And this is the trend in well-being over that time,

只有些最富有的國家、經濟合作開發組織(OECD)的數據

a small increase,

這是一條關於那段時間的福利趨勢

but this is the trend in ecological footprint.

一個小小的成長

And so in strict happy-planet methodology,

卻是一個反應生態足跡的趨勢

we've become less efficient

因此，在嚴格意義的快樂星球方法學上

at turning our ultimate scarce resource

當我們轉變最終稀有資源

into the outcome we want to.

到我們所要的結果時，

And the point really is, is that I think,

我們變得較無效率。

probably everybody in this room

我想，真正的問題在於

would like society to get to 2050

大概這房間裡的每個人

without an apocalyptic

都不希望2050年時的社會

something happening.

有什麽末世論