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  • For me, this story begins about 15 years ago,

    譯者: Adrienne Lin 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai

  • when I was a hospice doctor at the University of Chicago.

    大約15年前

  • And I was taking care of people who were dying and their families

    我在芝加哥大學擔任安寧病房醫生

  • in the South Side of Chicago.

    我負責照顧那些瀕臨死亡的人,與他們的家人

  • And I was observing what happened to people and their families

    就在芝加哥南端

  • over the course of their terminal illness.

    我觀察這些疾病末期的人,與他們家人,

  • And in my lab, I was studying the widower effect,

    疾病帶給他們的影響

  • which is a very old idea in the social sciences,

    我在實驗室研究守寡效應

  • going back 150 years,

    這個想法不新穎

  • known as "dying of a broken heart."

    150年前就有了

  • So, when I die, my wife's risk of death can double,

    就是大家所知的「心碎而死」

  • for instance, in the first year.

    就是,我死了,我妻子的死亡率在第一年

  • And I had gone to take care of one particular patient,

    會增加一倍。

  • a woman who was dying of dementia.

    當時我照顧一個

  • And in this case, unlike this couple,

    失智症的婦人

  • she was being cared for

    不像其他病人

  • by her daughter.

    她是由她女兒

  • And the daughter was exhausted from caring for her mother.

    負責照顧。

  • And the daughter's husband,

    為照顧母親,她女兒已心力憔悴

  • he also was sick

    而她女婿

  • from his wife's exhaustion.

    也因為妻子的憔悴

  • And I was driving home one day,

    而生病了。

  • and I get a phone call from the husband's friend,

    我有天開車回家

  • calling me because he was depressed

    接到一通女婿的朋友打來的電話

  • about what was happening to his friend.

    他說,因為他朋友(女婿)生病

  • So here I get this call from this random guy

    他也心情低落。

  • that's having an experience

    這通陌生人的電話

  • that's being influenced by people

    讓我有了這個體驗

  • at some social distance.

    原來人與人的影響

  • And so I suddenly realized two very simple things:

    不止於親近的人。

  • First, the widowhood effect

    我因此意識到兩件很簡單的事情

  • was not restricted to husbands and wives.

    第一,守寡效應

  • And second, it was not restricted to pairs of people.

    並不侷限於夫妻

  • And I started to see the world

    第二,並不侷限於兩個人而已

  • in a whole new way,

    我開始以全新的視角

  • like pairs of people connected to each other.

    來看這世界

  • And then I realized that these individuals

    人們一對對連結著

  • would be connected into foursomes with other pairs of people nearby.

    然後又有其他個體

  • And then, in fact, these people

    與鄰近的這對連結,變成兩對

  • were embedded in other sorts of relationships:

    然後這些人

  • marriage and spousal

    又被其他關係包圍著

  • and friendship and other sorts of ties.

    婚姻、夫妻、

  • And that, in fact, these connections were vast

    友情等等連結

  • and that we were all embedded in this

    事實上,這些連結很廣

  • broad set of connections with each other.

    我們每個人之間

  • So I started to see the world in a completely new way

    都是被這許多的連結連起來的。

  • and I became obsessed with this.

    我開始用全新的角度看這世界

  • I became obsessed with how it might be

    並為此著迷

  • that we're embedded in these social networks,

    我著迷於圍繞著

  • and how they affect our lives.

    每個人的人際網路

  • So, social networks are these intricate things of beauty,

    與它的影響。

  • and they're so elaborate and so complex

    人際關係是種美麗亦複雜的東西

  • and so ubiquitous, in fact,

    它既精密、複雜

  • that one has to ask what purpose they serve.

    卻又普及,事實上,

  • Why are we embedded in social networks?

    我們會問,它的功能是什麼?

  • I mean, how do they form? How do they operate?

    我們為什麼會處於人際網路中?

  • And how do they effect us?

    它們如何形成?怎麼運作?

  • So my first topic with respect to this,

    是怎麼影響我們的?

  • was not death, but obesity.

    我的第一個要探討的主題,

  • It had become trendy

    不是關於死亡,而是肥胖

  • to speak about the "obesity epidemic."

    突然間,大家都討論著

  • And, along with my collaborator, James Fowler,

    「肥胖流行症」

  • we began to wonder whether obesity really was epidemic

    我和James Fowler合作

  • and could it spread from person to person

    共同研究為什麼肥胖會流行

  • like the four people I discussed earlier.

    還有它的傳染是否像我剛所提的

  • So this is a slide of some of our initial results.

    那四個人那樣

  • It's 2,200 people in the year 2000.

    這是我們最初的結果

  • Every dot is a person. We make the dot size

    2000年研究的2200人

  • proportional to people's body size;

    每個點是一個人,我們依據

  • so bigger dots are bigger people.

    體型來做點的大小

  • In addition, if your body size,

    大點點的人體型較大

  • if your BMI, your body mass index, is above 30 --

    還有,體型、

  • if you're clinically obese --

    BMI值超過30以上的

  • we also colored the dots yellow.

    在醫學上被診斷為肥胖的

  • So, if you look at this image, right away you might be able to see

    我們標為黃點

  • that there are clusters of obese and

    各位可以看到這張圖

  • non-obese people in the image.

    肥胖的人聚成一團

  • But the visual complexity is still very high.

    不胖的人聚成一團

  • It's not obvious exactly what's going on.

    不過視覺上看起來還是很複雜

  • In addition, some questions are immediately raised:

    真正的情況看得不明顯。

  • How much clustering is there?

    另一個馬上想到的問題是

  • Is there more clustering than would be due to chance alone?

    圖中有多少聚集?

  • How big are the clusters? How far do they reach?

    聚集的產生是否不單因為巧合?

  • And, most importantly,

    這些聚集有多大?各自距離有多遠?

  • what causes the clusters?

    最重要的還有

  • So we did some mathematics to study the size of these clusters.

    形成聚集原因是什麼?

  • This here shows, on the Y-axis,

    所以我們將這些聚集的大小數據化

  • the increase in the probability that a person is obese

    可以看到,縱軸是

  • given that a social contact of theirs is obese

    一個人因為週遭朋友

  • and, on the X-axis, the degrees of separation between the two people.

    而變胖的可能性

  • On the far left, you see the purple line.

    橫軸是兩個人之間,分離的程度

  • It says that, if your friends are obese,

    最左邊,紫色長條顯示

  • your risk of obesity is 45 percent higher.

    如果你的朋友都過胖

  • And the next bar over, the [red] line,

    你過胖的機率比別人高45%

  • says if your friend's friends are obese,

    旁邊的紅色長條

  • your risk of obesity is 25 percent higher.

    代表如果你朋友的朋友都過胖

  • And then the next line over says

    你過胖的機率比平均高出25%

  • if your friend's friend's friend, someone you probably don't even know, is obese,

    下一個長條表示

  • your risk of obesity is 10 percent higher.

    如果你朋友的朋友的朋友-即使你都不認識-過胖

  • And it's only when you get to your friend's friend's friend's friends

    你過胖的機率比平均高出10%

  • that there's no longer a relationship

    只有到了你朋友的朋友的朋友的朋友

  • between that person's body size and your own body size.

    幾乎沒有關係可言

  • Well, what might be causing this clustering?

    你們的體型才不會互相影響。

  • There are at least three possibilities:

    那形成這種聚集的原因是什麼?

  • One possibility is that, as I gain weight,

    至少三種可能

  • it causes you to gain weight.

    第一,當我體重增加

  • A kind of induction, a kind of spread from person to person.

    你體重也增加

  • Another possibility, very obvious, is homophily,

    這是誘導性,在人與人之間的傳染

  • or, birds of a feather flock together;

    第二,很明顯的,同質性

  • here, I form my tie to you

    也就是「物以類聚,人以群分」

  • because you and I share a similar body size.

    我和你的聯繫

  • And the last possibility is what is known as confounding,

    是因為我們體型相同

  • because it confounds our ability to figure out what's going on.

    最後一個可能性是混雜法

  • And here, the idea is not that my weight gain

    我們搞不清楚狀況是什麼

  • is causing your weight gain,

    意思是,你體重增加的原因

  • nor that I preferentially form a tie with you

    不是因為我體重增加

  • because you and I share the same body size,

    也不是我選擇與你有關聯

  • but rather that we share a common exposure

    而是因為我們有一樣的體型

  • to something, like a health club

    所以我們會去類似的地方

  • that makes us both lose weight at the same time.

    例如健身房等等

  • When we studied these data, we found evidence for all of these things,

    我們一起瘦身的地方

  • including for induction.

    我們研究這些數據,發現以下一些證據

  • And we found that if your friend becomes obese,

    包含誘導性

  • it increases your risk of obesity by about 57 percent

    我們發現,如果你的朋友變胖

  • in the same given time period.

    同一時期裡,你變胖的機會

  • There can be many mechanisms for this effect:

    立刻增加57%

  • One possibility is that your friends say to you something like --

    造成這種效果有很多機制

  • you know, they adopt a behavior that spreads to you --

    一種情況是,你朋友的行為傳染給你

  • like, they say, "Let's go have muffins and beer,"

    他們可能會對你說:

  • which is a terrible combination. (Laughter)

    「我們吃馬芬鬆糕配啤酒吧」

  • But you adopt that combination,

    這搭配好糟糕

  • and then you start gaining weight like them.

    但你習慣這樣吃以後

  • Another more subtle possibility

    你就會開始和他們一樣變胖

  • is that they start gaining weight, and it changes your ideas

    另一種可能

  • of what an acceptable body size is.

    是他們開始增胖,你開始改變了

  • Here, what's spreading from person to person

    對於正常體型的看法

  • is not a behavior, but rather a norm:

    這種人與人傳染情況

  • An idea is spreading.

    不是行為改變,而是標準改變。

  • Now, headline writers

    有越來越多人接受這種想法。

  • had a field day with our studies.

    有些記者

  • I think the headline in The New York Times was,

    將我們的研究寫成報導

  • "Are you packing it on?

    我想紐約時報的頭條是:

  • Blame your fat friends." (Laughter)

    「變胖了嗎?」

  • What was interesting to us is that the European headline writers

    「怪你朋友吧!」

  • had a different take: They said,

    我們覺得有趣的是,歐洲的記者

  • "Are your friends gaining weight? Perhaps you are to blame."

    寫了不同的頭條:

  • (Laughter)

    「你朋友變胖了嗎?是你害的!」

  • And we thought this was a very interesting comment on America,

    (笑聲)

  • and a kind of self-serving,

    我們覺得很有趣,這反應出美國人那種

  • "not my responsibility" kind of phenomenon.

    有點自私、

  • Now, I want to be very clear: We do not think our work

    「不干我的事」的態度

  • should or could justify prejudice

    到此,我要澄清,我們並不認為

  • against people of one or another body size at all.

    這研究能被拿來

  • Our next questions was:

    當作身材歧視的正當理由

  • Could we actually visualize this spread?

    我們下一個問題是:

  • Was weight gain in one person actually spreading

    這種擴散要如何視覺化?

  • to weight gain in another person?

    一個人變胖是否會連帶影響

  • And this was complicated because

    另一個人的體重?

  • we needed to take into account the fact that the network structure,

    這很複雜

  • the architecture of the ties, was changing across time.

    因為我們要考慮到網路的結構、

  • In addition, because obesity is not a unicentric epidemic,

    連結的構造方式,是隨時在改變的

  • there's not a Patient Zero of the obesity epidemic --

    還有,肥胖症不是種只有單一中心的流行病

  • if we find that guy, there was a spread of obesity out from him --

    沒有肥胖流行病的「零號病人」-

  • it's a multicentric epidemic.

    疾病的原始帶原者是不存在的

  • Lots of people are doing things at the same time.

    它是有許多中心的

  • And I'm about to show you a 30 second video animation

    很多人同時做著相同的事

  • that took me and James five years of our lives to do.

    我給大家看個30秒動畫

  • So, again, every dot is a person.

    我和James花五年研究出來的

  • Every tie between them is a relationship.

    每個點都是一個人

  • We're going to put this into motion now,

    每條線表示他們的關連

  • taking daily cuts through the network for about 30 years.

    我們現在放給大家看

  • The dot sizes are going to grow,

    一睹30年的人際網路變化

  • you're going to see a sea of yellow take over.

    點的大小開始變化

  • You're going to see people be born and die --

    會看到越來越多黃點

  • dots will appear and disappear --

    也可以看到人們的出生、死亡

  • ties will form and break, marriages and divorces,

    點的消失與形成

  • friendings and defriendings.

    連結的形成與斷裂,結婚與離婚

  • A lot of complexity, a lot is happening

    友情的產生與破裂

  • just in this 30-year period

    非常複雜,這30年時間

  • that includes the obesity epidemic.

    發生了許多事情

  • And, by the end, you're going to see clusters

    包括肥胖的流行

  • of obese and non-obese individuals

    最後,你可以看到

  • within the network.

    肥胖、不肥胖的個體

  • Now, when looked at this,

    在這網路裡

  • it changed the way I see things,

    看著這張圖

  • because this thing, this network

    改變了我看事情的角度

  • that's changing across time,

    因為這個網路

  • it has a memory, it moves,

    隨時間變換的網路

  • things flow within it,

    它是有記憶的、會移動的

  • it has a kind of consistency --

    裏面也有很多流動

  • people can die, but it doesn't die;

    它擁有著一種持續性

  • it still persists --

    人會死亡,但它不會

  • and it has a kind of resilience

    永久存在

  • that allows it to persist across time.

    它有種恢復力

  • And so, I came to see these kinds of social networks

    能隨時間存在著

  • as living things,

    我將這些人際網路視為

  • as living things that we could put under a kind of microscope

    活的東西

  • to study and analyze and understand.

    是我們可以放到顯微鏡下觀察、研究、

  • And we used a variety of techniques to do this.

    並加以了解的東西

  • And we started exploring all kinds of other phenomena.

    我們用了很多方式研究

  • We looked at smoking and drinking behavior,

    並開始探索其他現象

  • and voting behavior,

    我們觀察吸菸、酗酒的人、

  • and divorce -- which can spread --

    有投票習慣的人、

  • and altruism.

    離婚的人-這也會傳染

  • And, eventually, we became interested in emotions.

    還有無私。

  • Now, when we have emotions,

    最後,我們對情緒感興趣

  • we show them.

    人的情緒一來

  • Why do we show our emotions?

    馬上展現出來

  • I mean, there would be an advantage to experiencing

    為什麼展現情緒?

  • our emotions inside, you know, anger or happiness.

    我是說,如果能把生氣、開心等情緒

  • But we don't just experience them, we show them.

    放在心裡應該是種優點吧

  • And not only do we show them, but others can read them.

    我們不只有情緒,我們會展現出來

  • And, not only can they read them, but they copy them.

    我們不只會展現出來,其他人還解讀的出來

  • There's emotional contagion

    他們不只解讀的出來,還會複製那情緒

  • that takes place in human populations.

    這就是人類社會的

  • And so this function of emotions

    情緒傳染

  • suggests that, in addition to any other purpose they serve,

    這些情緒的功能

  • they're a kind of primitive form of communication.

    還顯示他們有其他用途

  • And that, in fact, if we really want to understand human emotions,

    他們是一種最基本的溝通方式

  • we need to think about them in this way.

    如果我們真想了解人類的情緒

  • Now, we're accustomed to thinking about emotions in this way,

    我們就需要將之視為如此

  • in simple, sort of, brief periods of time.

    我們短時間內,已經習慣

  • So, for example,

    將情緒視為溝通方式

  • I was giving this talk recently in New York City,

    舉個例子,

  • and I said, "You know when you're on the subway

    我最近在紐約也做了演講

  • and the other person across the subway car

    我說:「你搭地鐵時,」

  • smiles at you,

    「坐你對面的人」

  • and you just instinctively smile back?"

    「對你微笑」

  • And they looked at me and said, "We don't do that in New York City." (Laughter)

    「你會直覺的也對他微笑。」

  • And I said, "Everywhere else in the world,

    觀眾看著我,說:「在紐約沒人這樣做。」

  • that's normal human behavior."

    我說:「紐約除外,世界其他地方」

  • And so there's a very instinctive way

    「這是正常現象。」

  • in which we briefly transmit emotions to each other.

    這是種直覺性的動作

  • And, in fact, emotional contagion can be broader still.

    簡單的將情緒傳給他人

  • Like we could have punctuated expressions of anger,

    事實上,這種情緒傳染是可以很廣的

  • as in riots.

    就像暴動中,展現憤怒情緒

  • The question that we wanted to ask was:

    的間接表達

  • Could emotion spread,

    我們想問的問題是:

  • in a more sustained way than riots, across time

    情緒傳染是否不止

  • and involve large numbers of people,

    在地鐵中相互微笑的兩人而已

  • not just this pair of individuals smiling at each other in the subway car?

    是否可以有更多人

  • Maybe there's a kind of below the surface, quiet riot

    甚至是更永續、跨時間的方式?

  • that animates us all the time.

    或許有那種表面下的暴動

  • Maybe there are emotional stampedes

    永久地控制我們。

  • that ripple through social networks.

    也許人際網路中也有

  • Maybe, in fact, emotions have a collective existence,

    情緒潰散的情形

  • not just an individual existence.

    又或許,情緒有種聚集存在

  • And this is one of the first images we made to study this phenomenon.

    而非只是個體存在。