A big machine, a cool, TED-ish machine,

想像一下這裡有一臺機器，

and it's a time machine.

一臺巨大的、炫麗的、很 TED 的機器，

And everyone in this room has to get into it.

它是一個時間機器，

And you can go backwards, you can go forwards;

在這房間裡的每一個人都要走進這個時間機器

you cannot stay where you are.

你可以選擇回到過去、或走向未來

And I wonder what you'd choose, because I've been asking my friends

你就是不能停在當下

this question a lot lately and they all want to go back.

我在想你們會怎麼選，因為最近我問我朋友，

I don't know. They want to go back before there were automobiles

他們的回答都是「回到過去」

or Twitter or "American Idol."

我不知道。他們想要回到沒有汽車、

I don't know.

沒有 Twitter 或《美國偶像》（American Idol）的年代

I'm convinced that there's some sort of pull

我搞不懂

to nostalgia, to wishful thinking.

我肯定他們心裡有種懷舊的情愫

And I understand that.

或是癡心妄想

I'm not part of that crowd, I have to say.

這我能理解

I don't want to go back, and it's not because I'm adventurous.

但我必須承認，我跟他們不是同一掛的

It's because possibilities on this planet,

我不想回到過去，不是因為我喜歡冒險 --

they don't go back, they go forward.

而是因為，這個地球的可能性

So I want to get in the machine, and I want to go forward.

無法從過去獲得，你要向未來前進

This is the greatest time there's ever been on this planet

也就是說，我想走進這個機器，走到未來

by any measure that you wish to choose:

這個時代是最美好的時代，

health, wealth,

不管你用何種方式來衡量，如：

mobility, opportunity,

健康、財富、

declining rates of disease ...

流動性、機遇、

There's never been a time like this.

患病率不斷下降

My great-grandparents died, all of them,

從未有過這麼好的時代

by the time they were 60.

我的曾祖父母

My grandparents pushed that number to 70.

在60歲的時候過世

My parents are closing in on 80.

我的祖父母多一些，他們在70多歲時離去

So there better be

我的父母過世時已經80幾歲了

a nine at the beginning of my death number.

所以，我希望我死去的時候

But it's not even about people like us,

是在一個9數字開頭左右的時候

because this is a bigger deal than that.

但這並不只和我們有關

A kid born in New Delhi today

這關係著更多人的生命

can expect to live as long as

今天，在新德里出生的某個小孩

the richest man in the world did 100 years ago.

可以擁有100年前

Think about that, it's an incredible fact.

世界上最富有的人一樣長的壽命

And why is it true?

你想想，這是個多麼了不起的事!

Smallpox. Smallpox killed billions

為什麼會出現這樣的事?

of people on this planet.

是因為我們消滅了天花

It reshaped the demography of the globe

天花曾奪走地球上數以億計人的生命

in a way that no war ever has.

它重塑了地球的人口結構

It's gone. It's vanished.

任何戰爭也無以比擬

We vanquished it. Puff.

但今天，它消失了

In the rich world,

我們克服了它

diseases that threatened millions of us just a generation ago

在當今富裕世界裡

no longer exist, hardly.

那曾經威脅上個世代數百萬人的疾病

Diphtheria, rubella, polio ...

幾乎不再出現了

does anyone even know what those things are?

白喉、德國麻疹、小兒麻痹......

Vaccines, modern medicine,

有人知道這些是什麼嗎?

our ability to feed billions of people,

疫苗、現代醫學、

those are triumphs of the scientific method.

以及人類為數百萬人提供食品的能力

And to my mind, the scientific method --

這些都是科學法則的勝利

trying stuff out,

在我看來，科學方法

seeing if it works, changing it when it doesn't --

就是不斷嘗試、

is one of the great accomplishments of humanity.

檢驗、改變的過程

So that's the good news.

它是人類最偉大的成就之一

Unfortunately, that's all the good news

因此這些都是好消息

because there are some other problems, and they've been mentioned many times.

但不幸的是，好消息就這麼多

And one of them is that

因為我們遇到其他一些難題，它們也被提過很多次

despite all our accomplishments,

其中一個就是

a billion people go to bed hungry

儘管我們取得進步，

in this world every day.

但目前，世界上還有10億人挨餓著

That number's rising, and it's rising really rapidly, and it's disgraceful.

每天，他們都忍受著饑餓的折磨

And not only that, we've used our imagination

這數字還在上升，上升的速度很快，令人感到羞愧

to thoroughly trash this globe.

除此之外，我們還使用自身的想像力

Potable water, arable land,

給地球帶來巨大的垃圾

rainforests, oil, gas:

飲用水、可耕地、

they're going away, and they're going away soon,

熱帶雨林、石油、天然氣:

and unless we innovate our way out of this mess,

這些資源都在流失，並且即將消失殆盡

we're going away too.

除非我們懂得創新

So the question is: Can we do that? And I think we can.

否則我們也會跟著滅亡

I think it's clear that we can make food

問題是: 我們做得到嗎? 我想我們可以

that will feed billions of people without raping the land that they live on.

我認為我們可以產出足以養活數十億人的糧食

I think we can power this world with energy

而不會損害他們賴以維生的土地

that doesn't also destroy it.

我認為，我們可以找到對環境友善的能源

I really do believe that, and, no, it ain't wishful thinking.

而不會毀壞環境

But here's the thing that keeps me up at night --

我確實是這麼相信的，絕非一廂情願

one of the things that keeps me up at night:

然而，有些事讓我輾轉難眠 --

We've never needed progress in science more than we need it right now. Never.

其中一個讓我徹夜難眠的事

And we've also never been in a position

在我們的歷史上，從來沒有如今天這般急需科技的進步。從來沒有。

to deploy it properly in the way that we can today.

在歷史上，我們也從未有過今天這樣的時機，

We're on the verge of amazing, amazing events

讓我們可以按照自己的意願使用這些科技

in many fields,

在許多領域中，我們都正處於

and yet I actually think we'd have to go back

驚人發現的時刻

hundreds, 300 years, before the Enlightenment,

儘管如此，事實上，我認為我們必須回頭看看

to find a time when we battled progress,

回到300年前，回到啓蒙時代以前

when we fought about these things

只有在那個年代，才有人抵抗進步

more vigorously, on more fronts, than we do now.

才有人比我們今天更加

People wrap themselves in their beliefs,

猛烈地抗拒科技的進步

and they do it so tightly that you can't set them free.

人們總愛把自己放置於信仰裡

Not even the truth will set them free.

他們捆綁自己，使自己無法脫身

And, listen, everyone's entitled to their opinion;

即便是真理也無法使他們獲得自由

they're even entitled to their opinion about progress.

聽著，每個人都有權抱持他的觀點，

But you know what you're not entitled to?

他們甚至有權聲稱他們關於進步的意見

You're not entitled to your own facts. Sorry, you're not.

但你知道你沒有權利做什麽嗎?

And this took me awhile to figure out.

你無權堅稱你自己所知道的事實。抱歉，你就是無法。

About a decade ago, I wrote a story about vaccines

我也是花了一段時間才領悟出來的

for The New Yorker. A little story.

大約十年前，我在《紐約客》上寫一篇

And I was amazed to find opposition:

關於疫苗的小故事

opposition to what is, after all,

但我驚訝地發現，竟然有那麼多人反對我

the most effective public health measure in human history.

他們反對的是

I didn't know what to do,

人類史上最有效的公共衛生預防措施

so I just did what I do: I wrote a story and I moved on.

我當時不知該怎麼做

And soon after that,

我就只做自己該做的。故事寫完，繼續搞其他事

I wrote a story about genetically engineered food.

不久之後，

Same thing, only bigger.

我寫了一個關於基因轉殖食物的文章

People were going crazy.

同樣地，我又收到大量的反對聲浪，比上次還要大

So I wrote a story about that too,

人們簡直瘋了

and I couldn't understand why

於是，我也就此寫了一篇文章

people thought this was "Frankenfoods,"

我實在搞不懂

why they thought moving molecules around

為何人們會把這看作「科學怪人食物」?

in a specific, rather than a haphazard way,

我不理解: 為何人們會認為，以特定的方式移動生物分子

was trespassing on nature's ground.

而非按任意的方式，

But, you know, I do what I do. I wrote the story, I moved on.

就是在玩弄自然

I mean, I'm a journalist.

不過，你知道，我還是做我該做的。故事寫完，我就不管了。

We type, we file, we go to dinner. It's fine.

我是個記者，

(Laughter)

我們的工作就是打字、發表、吃飯，就這樣。

But these stories bothered me,

（笑聲）

and I couldn't figure out why, and eventually I did.

但，這些故事還是困擾著我

And that's because those fanatics that were driving me crazy

我也不知道是什麼原因，直到後來我才知道爲什麽。

weren't actually fanatics at all.

因為，那些曾把我逼瘋的狂熱分子

They were thoughtful people, educated people, decent people.

事實上並非狂熱分子

They were exactly like the people in this room.

他們都是有想法的人、受過教育的人、正經人。

And it just disturbed me so much.

他們完全就像這房裡的所有人，

But then I thought, you know, let's be honest.

這實在讓我傷透腦筋...

We're at a point in this world

但後來我想，不如打開天窗說亮話吧:

where we don't have the same relationship to progress that we used to.

在我們今天所處的時代

We talk about it ambivalently.

我們與進步的關係已經不同於以往了，

We talk about it in ironic terms with little quotes around it:

我們現在以一種矛盾的情緒談論它，

"progress."

我們以諷刺的口吻來引用進步:

Okay, there are reasons for that, and I think we know what those reasons are.

“進步” (加上引號)

We've lost faith in institutions,

好吧，我想這是有原因的，我們也知道原因是什麼

in authority,

我們對於政府機構

and sometimes in science itself,

已失去信任，

and there's no reason we shouldn't have.

有時對科學本身也是，

You can just say a few names

我們確實有不信任的理由，

and people will understand.

說出幾個名字

Chernobyl, Bhopal, the Challenger,

你就知道原因為何了

Vioxx, weapons of mass destruction,

車諾比、博帕爾、挑戰者號、

hanging chads.

Vioxx 抗關節炎藥、大規模殺傷性武器，

You know, you can choose your list.

充滿太多爭議

There are questions and problems

你可以列出自己的清單

with the people we used to believe were always right,

我們過去深深確信的

so be skeptical.

現在都出問題了

Ask questions, demand proof, demand evidence.

所以，還是保持懷疑吧

Don't take anything for granted.

詢問問題、要求證據、

But here's the thing: When you get proof,

千萬別凡事信以為真

you need to accept the proof, and we're not that good at doing that.

但要注意一點: 當你取得證據時

And the reason that I can say that is because

你必須接受那樣的證據。我們卻並不善於這麼做。

we're now in an epidemic of fear

究其原因，我認為

like one I've never seen and hope never to see again.

我們現在都得了一種恐懼傳染病

About 12 years ago, there was a story published,

一種我從未見過的、以後也不想再見的恐懼傳染病

a horrible story,

大約十二年前，媒體報導一則消息

that linked the epidemic of autism

一個非常可怕的故事

to the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine shot.

它把自閉症

Very scary.

和注射麻疹、腮腺炎、德國麻疹等疫苗連結在一起

Tons of studies were done to see if this was true.

非常可怕

Tons of studies should have been done; it's a serious issue.

爲了查明此事，人們展開大量研究

The data came back.

是有必要做這些大量研究，因為那確實是一個嚴重的議題

The data came back from the United States, from England,

最後資料出來了

from Sweden, from Canada,

來自美國、英國、

and it was all the same: no correlation,

瑞典、加拿大的資料檢驗出同樣的結論:

no connection, none at all.

自閉症和疫苗二者之間沒有關聯，

It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter

毫無聯繫，根本毫不相關

because we believe anecdotes,

但這個結果對大眾沒多大意義

we believe what we see, what we think we see,

因為我們相信小道消息，

what makes us feel real.

我們相信眼睛看到的、相信心裡所見到的、

We don't believe a bunch of documents

相信那些讓我們覺得真實的東西

from a government official giving us data,

就是不相信一堆化驗資料

and I do understand that, I think we all do.

不相信來自政府部門的檔案

But you know what?

而我也理解這一點，我想我們所有人都理解這點

The result of that has been disastrous.

可是你知道嗎?

Disastrous because here's a fact:

這導致了災難性的後果

The United States is one of the only countries in the world

說它災難，因為這裡有個事實:

where the vaccine rate for measles is going down.

美國是世界上唯一一個

That is disgraceful,

麻疹接種率正在下降的國家

and we should be ashamed of ourselves.

這實在令人羞愧

It's horrible.

我們應該為此感到慚愧

What kind of a thing happened

這很可怕

that we could do that?

到底發生什麼事

Now, I understand it. I do understand it.

才使我們這麼做?

Because, did anyone have measles here?

現在，我明白了。真的明白了。

Has one person in this audience ever seen someone die of measles?

請問這裡有人得過麻疹嗎?

Doesn't happen very much.

你們當中，有人看過某人罹患麻疹死去嗎?

Doesn't happen in this country at all,

不經常發生吧

but it happened 160,000 times in the world last year.

事實上它也不會發生在這個國家

That's a lot of death of measles --

然而，過去一年裡，有十六萬人罹患麻疹而死去

20 an hour.

這是一個非常大量的麻疹致死率

But since it didn't happen here, we can put it out of our minds,

基本上，每小時有20人因此死去

and people like Jenny McCarthy

但因為它不在我們生活周遭，我們可以不管這件事

can go around preaching messages

像 Jenny McCarthy 那樣的人

of fear and illiteracy from platforms

依然能夠在

like "Oprah" and "Larry King Live."

歐普拉和賴瑞·金的節目上

And they can do it because

散播恐懼和無知的資訊

they don't link causation and correlation.

他們之所以這麼做

They don't understand that these things seem the same,

是因為，他們沒有把原因與關聯性連結在一起

but they're almost never the same.

他們不瞭解這些看起來似是而非的東西

And it's something we need to learn, and we need to learn it really soon.

事實上從來都不是相同的東西

This guy was a hero, Jonas Salk.

我們必須從中汲取教訓，越早越好

He took one of the worst scourges of mankind away from us.

這位先生是個英雄， Jonas Salk

No fear, no agony. Polio -- puff, gone.

他發明小兒麻痹的疫苗，使我們避免了最嚴重的禍害

That guy in the middle, not so much.

再也沒有恐懼，再也沒有痛楚，小兒麻痹消失了

His name is Paul Offit.

中間那個男人就沒那麼風光了 (圖標: 恐怖分子)

He just developed a rotavirus vaccine with a bunch of other people.

他叫 Paul Offit

It'll save the lives of 400 to 500,000 kids

他與其他一票同仁一起發明了輪狀病毒疫苗

in the developing world every year.

這疫苗每年可以在發展中國家

Pretty good, right?

拯救四億五十萬孩子的生命

Well, it's good, except that Paul goes around talking about vaccines

聽起來是好事，不是嗎?

and says how valuable they are

確實很好，除了Paul 到處宣傳這一疫苗

and that people ought to just stop the whining.

說它有多好

And he actually says it that way.

並稱人們從此可以告別苦楚

So, Paul's a terrorist.

他確實是這麼說的

When Paul speaks in a public hearing,

於是，我們把 Paul 當成恐怖分子

he can't testify without armed guards.

當 Paul 公開作證時

He gets called at home

他身邊必須要有武裝保安

because people like to tell him

他在家裡會接到恐嚇電話

that they remember where his kids go to school.

因為，有人會跟他說

And why? Because Paul made a vaccine.

他們知道他孩子在哪上學

I don't need to say this, but vaccines are essential.

為什麼? 因為 Paul 發明了一種疫苗

You take them away, disease comes back,

我本不需要講這個的，但疫苗確實極其重要，

horrible diseases. And that's happening.

一旦停止疫苗注射，疾病又會捲土重來，

We have measles in this country now.

並且是非常可怕的疾病，這樣的事正在發生

And it's getting worse, and pretty soon kids

現在美國也出現麻疹了

are going to die of it again because it's just a numbers game.

而且情況越來越糟

And they're not just going to die of measles.

不久之後，就會有孩子罹患此病而死，因為這只是數字遊戲罷了

What about polio? Let's have that. Why not?

不僅僅是麻疹，

A college classmate of mine wrote me a couple weeks ago and said

還有小兒麻痹症呢! 誰敢說它不會重新出現?

she thought I was a little strident.

幾個星期前，我的一位大學同學寫信給我說

No one's ever said that before.

她覺得我現在有點太張揚了

She wasn't going to vaccinate her kid against polio,

以前沒人這麼說過

no way.

她說她不打算給孩子接種小兒麻痹症疫苗

Fine.

絕對不會

Why? Because we don't have polio. And you know what?

好吧

We didn't have polio in this country yesterday.

為什麼? 因為這個國家沒有小兒麻痹症。但你知道嗎?

Today, I don't know, maybe a guy got on a plane in Lagos this morning,

昨天，我們沒有這個傳染病

and he's flying to LAX, right now he's over Ohio.

但今天? 我不知道，也許某人今早從 Lagos 上了飛機

And he's going to land in a couple of hours, he's going to rent a car,

飛到洛杉磯機場，現在差不多抵達俄亥俄州

and he's going to come to Long Beach,

幾個小時後，他的飛機就要降落，他會租一輛車

and he's going to attend one of these fabulous TED dinners tonight.

來到 Long Beach

And he doesn't know that he's infected with a paralytic disease,

來到這裡參加今晚其中一場超棒的 TED 晚宴