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  • I'd like to talk to you today about the scale of the scientific effort

    譯者: Yung Hsiang Tseng 審譯者: Dennis Lin

  • that goes into making the headlines you see in the paper.

    今天讓我們來談談

  • Headlines that look like this when they have to do with climate change;

    在頭條新聞的背後

  • and like this when they have to do with air quality or smog.

    科學家們所做的種種努力

  • They're two branches of the same field of atmospheric science.

    這是跟氣候變遷有關的頭條新聞

  • Recently, the headlines looked like this

    而這是空氣品質或是煙霧汙染有關的頭條新聞

  • when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC,

    以上兩種新聞內容分別屬於大氣科學的兩個分支

  • put out their report

    這是最近的一則頭條,內容是說IPCC...

  • on the state of understanding of the atmospheric system.

    也就是聯合國的"政府間氣候變化專門委員會"

  • That report was written by 620 scientists from 40 countries.

    發表了一篇關於大氣系統現況的報告

  • They wrote almost 1,000 pages on the topic,

    這篇報告是由來自40個國家的

  • and all of those pages were reviewed

    620位科學家合力完成

  • by another 400-plus scientists and reviewers

    整篇報告將近一千頁

  • from 113 countries.

    然後再經由另外來自113個國家的

  • It's a big community;

    400多位科學家和審查員審定而成

  • such a big community, in fact,

    這可是個浩大工程

  • that our annual gathering is the largest scientific meeting in the world.

    事實上,我們每年的聚會可說是物理學界的年度盛事

  • Over 15,000 scientists go to San Francisco every year for that.

    每年會有超過一萬五千名科學家齊聚於舊金山

  • Every one of those scientists is in a research group,

    每個人都代表一個研究團隊

  • and every research group studies a wide variety of topics.

    也代表每個團隊的研究議題

  • For us at Cambridge, it's as varied as the El Niño Oscillation,

    我們在劍橋的團隊,研究議題非常多樣

  • which affects weather and climate,

    像是影響天氣與氣候的聖嬰現象

  • to the assimilation of satellite data,

    人造衛星的數據同化

  • to emissions from crops that produce biofuels, which is what I study.

    或是我正在研究的農作物與生化燃料

  • And in each one of these research areas, of which there are even more,

    而在每個研究領域裡

  • there are PhD students, like me, and we study incredibly narrow topics,

    都有許多跟我一樣的博士生

  • things as narrow as a few processes or a few molecules.

    每人負責一個專精的主題

  • And one of the molecules I study is called isoprene, which is here.

    專精到像是小小的反應過程,或一些小分子

  • It's a small organic molecule.

    我研究的是名叫異戊二烯的分子,如螢幕所示

  • You've probably never heard of it.

    這是種微小的有機分子,你們可能從來沒聽過

  • The weight of a paper clip is approximately equal

    一個迴紋針的重量

  • to 900 zeta-illion -- 10 to the 21st -- molecules of isoprene.

    大約等於10的21次方個異戊二烯分子

  • But despite its very small weight,

    雖然它非常輕

  • enough of it is emitted into the atmosphere every year

    但它每年排放到大氣中的量

  • to equal the weight of all the people on the planet.

    卻相當於地球上所有人的體重總和

  • It's a huge amount of stuff. It's equal to the weight of methane.

    這可不是團小東西,跟甲烷的重量比起來也不相上下

  • And because it's so much stuff,

    正因如此,它在大氣系統中扮演了至關重要的角色

  • it's really important for the atmospheric system.

    我們會不遺餘力地研究異戊二烯

  • Because it's important to the atmospheric system,

    理由也在此

  • we go to all lengths to study this thing.

    我們將它炸裂並觀察它遺留的碎片

  • We blow it up and look at the pieces.

    這是位於西班牙的EUPHORE煙霧實驗室

  • This is the EUPHORE Smog Chamber in Spain.

    大氣中的完全燃燒

  • Atmospheric explosions, or full combustion,

    所產生的爆炸次數是車子引擎裡的一千五百倍

  • takes about 15,000 times longer than what happens in your car.

    即使如此,我們仍致力於觀察它的碎片

  • But still, we look at the pieces.

    我們會用超級電腦運算大量的模型

  • We run enormous models on supercomputers; this is what I happen to do.

    我目前在做的就是這個

  • Our models have hundreds of thousands of grid boxes

    模型裡有上千個網格在運算

  • calculating hundreds of variables each, on minute timescales.

    每分鐘能運算上百筆數據

  • It takes weeks to perform our integrations,

    而整合這些數據則花費了數週時間

  • and we perform dozens of integrations in order to understand what's happening.

    整合次數也不計其數

  • We also fly all over the world looking for this thing.

    耗費那麼多心力只為了更瞭解異戊二烯

  • I recently joined a field campaign in Malaysia -- there are others.

    此外,我們也在世界各地尋找這種分子

  • We found a global atmospheric watchtower there

    最近我參加了一個在馬來西亞的實地調查活動

  • in the middle of the rainforest,

    我們還在當地建立了一個全球大氣觀測站

  • and hung hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of scientific equipment

    就位在雨林中央,上面懸掛了許多昂貴的科學儀器

  • off this tower,

    價值約數十萬美元

  • to look for isoprene and other things while we were there.

    都是為了尋找異戊二烯

  • This is the tower in the middle of the rainforest from above,

    當然,也順便觀察其他種類的分子

  • and the tower from below.

    這就是那座觀測站,照片是從飛機上拍的

  • On part of that field campaign we even brought an aircraft with us.

    這張是從底下拍的

  • And this plane, the model BAe-146, which was run by FAAM,

    我們還從FAAM借來了一架BA146飛機進行觀測

  • normally flies 120 to 130 people,

    (譯註:FAAM是英國一家提供大氣觀測機的機構)

  • so maybe you took a similar aircraft to get here today.

    這種飛機載客量約120到130人

  • But we didn't just fly it.

    也許有人今天就是乘坐類似的飛機來到這裡的

  • We were flying at 100 meters above the top of the canopy

    但我們是以距離樹冠層僅一百公尺的高度在飛行

  • to measure this molecule -- incredibly dangerous stuff.

    非常危險,但這都是為了測量異戊二烯

  • We have to fly at a special incline to make the measurements;

    為了進行測量,飛機必須以一特定角度飛行

  • we hire military and test pilots to do the maneuvering;

    所以我們請來了軍方和測試飛行員來駕駛飛機

  • we need special flight clearance.

    當然,特殊的飛行許可也是不可少的

  • As you come around the banks in these valleys,

    當飛機沿著河谷飛過時,G力會達到2G

  • the forces can get up to two Gs;

    科學家們必須完全承受住這些壓力

  • the scientists must be completely harnessed in

    因為他們還要在飛機上進行測量事宜

  • in order to make measurements while on board.

    所以,各位應該可以想像

  • So as you can imagine,

    飛機上的狀況絕對不會像要去度假一樣悠閒

  • the inside of the aircraft doesn't look like one you'd take on vacation.

    對我們而言,那就像個空中實驗室

  • It's a flying laboratory we took to make measurements of this molecule.

    以上就是我們為了瞭解一個化學分子所做的努力

  • We do all this to understand the chemistry of one molecule.

    只要有某個學生像我一樣特別執著於某一種分子

  • And when one student like me has some sort of inclination

    或對某一種分子有著深入了解

  • or understanding about that molecule,

    他們就會把自己的想法寫成一篇篇的論文

  • they write one scientific paper on the subject.

    藉由一個實地調查活動,我們可以瞭解許多分子

  • And out of that field campaign we'll probably get a few dozen papers

    許許多多的研究論文便應運而生

  • on a few dozen processes or molecules.

    我們的知識體系便由此而建構

  • As a body of knowledge builds up, it will form one subsection,

    進而衍生出更進一步的研究與探索

  • or one sub-subsection,

    這些研究結果於是成為IPCC評估報告的構成要素

  • of an assessment like the IPCC, although we have others.

    在報告書的十一個章節裡頭

  • And each one of the 11 chapters of the IPCC has six to ten subsections.

    每章都有六到十小節闡述進一步的研究成果

  • So you can imagine the scale of the effort.

    所以各位可以想像,科學家們為此付出了多少心力

  • In each one of the assessments we write, we always tag on a summary,

    報告完成之後,我們會將報告書的內容...

  • and the summary is written for a non-scientific audience.

    整理成一篇摘要

  • And we hand that summary to journalists and policy makers

    以提供給非專業領域的大眾閱讀

  • in order to make headlines like these.

    最後我們把這篇摘要交給記者以及政府的決策官員

  • Thank you very much.

    報紙上的頭條新聞便由此而生

  • (Applause)

    謝謝大家

I'd like to talk to you today about the scale of the scientific effort

譯者: Yung Hsiang Tseng 審譯者: Dennis Lin

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 分子 大氣 飛機 頭條 研究

【TED】Rachel Pike:氣候標題背後的科學(Rachel Pike:氣候標題背後的科學)。 (【TED】Rachel Pike: The science behind a climate headline (Rachel Pike: The science behind a climate headline))

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    Zenn 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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