when the finance, the credit, which drives our economies froze.

很難相信金融危機是不到一年前發生的事，

A massive cardiac arrest.

我們的經濟凍結了，

The effect, the payback, perhaps, for years of vampire predators like Bernie Madoff,

像一場嚴重的心臟病發作。

whom we saw earlier.

也許這是馬多夫這種吸血鬼，在吸了我們多年的血之後，

Abuse of steroids, binging and so on.

必然會發生的結果。

And it's only a few months since governments

就像濫用類固醇，狂歡等等。

injected enormous sums of money to try and keep the whole system afloat.

僅僅幾個月前，政府才

And we're now in a very strange sort of twilight zone,

投入鉅額資金試圖維持系統運作，

where no one quite knows what's worked, or what doesn't.

而我們現在處於一個很奇怪、像是陰陽魔界的地帶，

We don't have any very clear maps, any compass to guide us.

沒人確定什麼有用，什麼沒用。

We don't know which experts to believe anymore.

我們沒有明確的地圖或指南針指引，

What I'm going to try and do is to give some pointers

我們也不知道哪個專家可以信賴。

to what I think is the landscape on the other side of the crisis,

我想做的是指出

what things we should be looking out for

金融危機的另一面，

and how we can actually use the crisis.

就是我們該小心什麼，

There's a definition of leadership which says,

以及我們能怎樣利用這次危機。

"It's the ability to use the smallest possible crisis

有一種對領導力的定義是說：

for the biggest possible effect."

「將最小的危機

And I want to talk about how we ensure that this crisis,

轉化成最大效能的能力。」

which is by no means small, really is used to the full.

我也要說說我們該怎麼把這不算小的危機

I want to start just by saying a bit about where I'm coming from.

用到極盡。

I've got a very confused background

我想先講講我的經歷。

which perhaps makes me appropriate for confused times.

我的背景很複雜，

I've got a Ph.D. in Telecoms, as you can see.

可能就是這樣，我很適合活在複雜的時代。

I trained briefly as a Buddhist monk under this guy.

我有一個電訊博士學位，

I've been a civil servant,

我曾短期拜這位為師，接受成為佛僧的訓練，

and I've been in charge of policy for this guy as well.

我當過公務員，

But what I want to talk about begins when I was at this city, this university, as a student.

也負責過這個人的政策。

And then as now, it was a beautiful place of balls and punts, beautiful people,

但我要說的起始於我在這城市當大學生時，

many of whom took to heart Ronald Reagan's comment

跟現在一樣，那是個美麗的地方，有人踢球、划船、還有帥哥美女，

that, "even if they say hard work doesn't do you any harm,

很多人都對雷根(Ronald Reagan)的說法深感同意：

why risk it?"

「即使大家都說辛苦工作無害，

But when I was here,

但也沒必要冒險吧？」

a lot of my fellow teenagers were in a very different situation,

但我在那裡時，

leaving school at a time then of rapidly growing youth unemployment,

我很多的青少年同儕處境相差很多，

and essentially hitting a brick wall in terms of their opportunities.

他們畢業時，正好處於青年失業率劇增的時機，

And I spent quite a lot of time with them rather than in punts.

在尋求機會上總是碰釘子。

And they were people who were not short of wit, or grace or energy,

我花好多時間在他們身上，而不是在平底船上。

but they had no hope, no jobs, no prospects.

他們這些人不是不夠聰明、不夠優雅或體力不足，

And when people aren't allowed to be useful,

而是他們沒有希望、沒有工作、沒有前景。

they soon think that they're useless.

而當人們無法一展所長時，

And although that was great for the music business at the time,

他們很快就會覺得自己沒用。

it wasn't much good for anything else.

雖然當時的音樂事業發展得很好，

And ever since then, I've wondered why it is that capitalism

其他的產業則不然。

is so amazingly efficient at some things, but so inefficient at others,

從那時開始，我不禁納悶為什麼資本主義

why it's so innovative in some ways and so un-innovative in others.

在某方面能出奇地有效率，在其他方面則又不然，

Now, since that time,

在某方面可以如此創新，在其他方面又恰恰相反。

we've actually been through an extraordinary boom,

那段時間過後，

the longest boom ever in the history of this country.

我們的景氣確實蓬勃發展了一陣子，

Unprecedented wealth and prosperity,

是我國有史以來最久的一次，

but that growth hasn't always delivered what we needed.

史無前例的富裕和繁榮，

H.L. Mencken once said that, "to every complex problem,

但那成長並不總是帶來我們所需要的。

there is a simple solution and it's wrong."

孟肯（H.L.Mencken，美國知名社會評論家）曾說：「每個複雜的問題，

But I'm not saying growth is wrong,

都有個簡單的解法，但那個解法是不對的。」

but it's very striking that throughout the years of growth,

我不是說經濟成長不好，

many things didn't get better.

然而駭人的是，經過這些年的成長，

Rates of depression carried on up, right across the Western world.

很多事並沒有好轉。

If you look at America, the proportion of Americans

憂鬱症比例節節升高，遍及整個西方世界。

with no one to talk to about important things

看看美國，原本只有十分之一的人

went up from a tenth to a quarter.

找不到可以傾訴重要事情的對象，

We commuted longer to work, but as you can see from this graph,

現在已經升到1/4了。

the longer you commute the less happy you're likely to be.

人們通勤的時間增長，而你們可以從這張圖表看出，

And it became ever clearer that economic growth

通勤的時間越長，就越不可能快樂。

doesn't automatically translate into social growth or human growth.

我們漸漸明白，經濟成長

We're now at another moment

並不一定等於社會成長、或人性提升。

when another wave of teenagers are entering a cruel job market.

我們現在又再次面臨

There will be a million unemployed young people here

青少年即將進入殘忍的就業市場的一刻，

by the end of the year,

年底前即將有一百萬名

thousands losing their jobs everyday in America.

失業的年輕人。

We've got to do whatever we can to help them,

美國每天有上千人失去工作，

but we've also got to ask, I think, a more profound question

我們必須盡其所能幫助這些人，

of whether we use this crisis to jump forward

但我們同時也該提出一個更深層的問題:

to a different kind of economy that's more suited to human needs,

我們能否利用這次危機將我們的經濟

to a better balance of economy and society.

轉型成一個更符合人性需求、

And I think one of the lessons of history is that

讓社會與經濟更協調的狀態。

even the deepest crises can be moments of opportunity.

我覺得歷史的教訓之一就是：

They bring ideas from the margins into the mainstream.

即便是最大的危機，也可以是轉機。

They often lead to the acceleration of much-needed reforms.

危機可以為主流思想帶入新觀念，

And you saw that in the '30s,

並加速必要改革的腳步。

when the Great Depression paved the way

這在三十年代就曾發生過，

for Bretton Woods, welfare states and so on.

大蕭條造就了

And I think you can see around us now,

布雷頓森林協議、福利國家等等。

some of the green shoots of a very different kind of economy and capitalism

我想你們現在可以看看周遭，

which could grow.

我們可以培育某些不同的經濟

You can see it in daily life.

和資本主義的幼苗。

When times are hard, people have to do things for themselves,

在日常生活裡就可以看見這些幼苗，

and right across the world, Oxford, Omaha, Omsk,

每當時機不好，人們凡事就得自己來，

you can see an extraordinary explosion of urban farming,

現在整個世界，包括牛津、奧馬哈、歐姆斯克等地，

people taking over land, taking over roofs,

你都可以見到都市耕作大量增加，

turning barges into temporary farms.

人們把土地、屋頂、

And I'm a very small part of this.

大型平底船改造成暫時性農場。

I have 60,000 of these things in my garden.

我也參加了一小部分，

A few of these. This is Atilla the hen.

我花園裡有六萬隻這類的東西，

And I'm a very small part of a very large movement,

很多，這是母雞阿提拉。

which for some people is about survival,

我在這個大趨勢中，只不過是一個非常小的參與者，

but is also about values, about a different kind of economy,

但對某些人來說卻攸關生死，

which isn't so much about consumption and credit,

關係到價值觀和不同類型的經濟體，

but about things which matter to us.

不再只是繞著消費和信貸打轉，

And everywhere too, you can see a proliferation of time banks

而是回到對我們來說更重要的事。

and parallel currencies,

各地都可以見到時間銀行(貢獻彼此專長的社群網站)

people using smart technologies to link up

及平行貨幣逐漸普及，

all the resources freed up by the market -- people, buildings, land --

人們開始用先進科技連結

and linking them to whomever has got the most compelling needs.

被市場、人群、建築、土地釋放出來的資源，

There's a similar story, I think, for governments.

並連結到那些需求最迫切的人們。

Ronald Reagan, again, said the two funniest sentences

我想政府那邊也有類似的故事。

in the English language are,

雷根用英語說過

"I'm from the government. And I'm here to help."

最好笑的兩句話是：

But I think last year when governments did step in,

「我是政府派來的，而且我是來幫忙的。」

people were quite glad that they were there, that they did act.

但我認為去年政府介入時，

But now, a few months on,

民眾對政府有挺身而出還蠻高興的，

however good politicians are at swallowing frogs

但是現在過了幾個月，

without pulling a face, as someone once put it,

即使有人說這些政客厲害到連吞青蛙

they can't hide their uncertainty.

也面不改色，

Because it's already clear

但他們也沒辦法隱藏自己的不確定感。

how much of the enormous amount of money they put into the economy,

因為事實就擺在眼前，

really went into fixing the past, bailing out the banks, the car companies,

丟了那麼多錢在救經濟，

not preparing us for the future.

其實大部分都用來補以前的洞、拯救銀行、拯救汽車公司，

How much of the money is going into concrete and boosting consumption,

而不是在為我們的未來鋪路。

not into solving the really profound problems we have to solve.

花了這麼多錢在鞏固和刺激消費，

And everywhere, as people think about the unprecedented sums

卻沒有治到我們應該治的根。

which are being spent of our money and our children's money,

當我們想著我們所支出的空前鉅額款項，

now, in the depth of this crisis, they're asking:

全都是我們以及我們小孩的錢時，

Surely, we should be using this with a longer-term vision

處在水深火熱危機中的我們該問：

to accelerate the shift to a green economy,

「我們應該要用更有遠見的方法，

to prepare for aging, to deal with some of the inequalities

來加速轉型成綠色經濟，

which scar countries like this and the United States

為人口老化做準備，解決這個把美國和其他國家

rather than just giving the money to the incumbents?

搞得坑坑疤疤的不均衡問題，

Surely, we should be giving the money to entrepreneurs, to civil society,

而不是一味把錢送給闖禍的人吧？」

for people able to create the new,

我們當然也該提供資金給那些能夠創新的

not to the big, well-connected companies,

企業、社團或個人，

big, clunky government programs.

而不是給那些又大又到處有關係的公司，

And, after all this, as the great Chinese sage Lao Tzu said,

或既大又笨重的政府計畫。

"Governing a great country is like cooking a small fish.

畢竟，偉大的中國聖人老子也說過：

Don't overdo it."

「治大國，

And I think more and more people are also asking:

若烹小鮮。」

Why boost consumption, rather than change what we consume?

我覺得越來越多人在問：

Like the mayor of São Paulo who's banned advertising billboards,

為什麼寧願刺激消費，卻不願意改變我們消費的東西？

or the many cities like San Francisco

像聖保羅的市長就禁用廣告看板，

putting in infrastructures for electric cars.

或很多跟舊金山一樣的城市，

You can see a bit of the same thing happening in the business world.

都為電動車裝設了基礎設施，

Some, I think some of the bankers

你也可以在商場上看到類似的演變。

who have appear to have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

我認為有些銀行家

But ask yourselves: What will be the biggest sectors of the economy

似乎什麼都沒學到，也全都忘記了，

in 10, 20, 30 years time? It won't be the ones lining up for handouts,

但請捫心自問：在未來的10、20、30年間，

like cars and aerospace and so on.

整個經濟體中貢獻最大的產業會是什麼？不會是那些排隊領取

The biggest sector, by far, will be health --

政府補助的汽車業或航太工業；

already 18 percent of the American economy,

最大塊的是，以目前來講，是醫療產業～

predicted to grow to 30, even 40 percent by mid-century.

已經佔美國總體經濟的18%，

Elder care, child care, already much bigger employers than cars.

預計將在世紀中期成長到30%甚至40%。

Education: six, seven, eight percent of the economy and growing.

老人照顧、孩童照顧產業的從業人員，都已超過汽車業。

Environmental services, energy services, the myriad of green jobs,

教育，佔總體經濟的6%、7%或8%，且仍在成長。

they're all pointing to a very different kind of economy

環保服務、能源服務、數不清的綠色工作，

which isn't just about products, but is using distributed networks,

都指向一個截然不同的經濟產業，

and it's founded above all on care, on relationships,

這個產業提供的不只是產品，還搭配運用了配銷網路，

on what people do to other people, often one to one,

強調關懷、關係、

rather than simply selling them a product.

和人們對他人做了什麼，通常是一對一，

And I think that what connects the challenge for civil society,

而不只是銷售產品。

the challenge for governments and the challenge for business now

我認為現在各個社團、

is, in a way, a very simple one, but quite a difficult one.

政府及企業所面臨的挑戰，

We know our societies have to radically change.

看起來很簡單，但其實又蠻難的。

We know we can't go back to where we were before the crisis.

大家都知道我們的社會必須徹底改變，

But we also know it's only through experiment

也知道再也不能回到金融危機發生之前的過去，

that we'll discover exactly how to run a low carbon city,

但我們也知道只有透過不斷嚐試，

how to care for a much older population,

才能打造低碳城市、

how to deal with drug addiction and so on.

照顧老年人口、

And here's the problem.

解決毒品上癮等問題。

In science, we do experiments systematically.

問題就來了。

Our societies now spend two, three, four percent of GDP

在科學上，我們會有系統地做實驗，

to invest systematically in new discovery, in science, in technology,

現在國內生產總值的2%、3%、或4%

to fuel the pipeline of brilliant inventions

是有系統地投資在新發現、科學及科技領域上，

which illuminate gatherings like this.

給優秀的發明加加火力，

It's not that our scientists are necessarily much smarter

就像照亮這些的東西。

than they were a hundred years ago, maybe they are,

現代的科學家不一定就比

but they have a hell of a lot more backing than they ever did.

一百年前的科學家聰明，即便如此，

And what's striking though,

那是因為他們有以前科學家留下的知識做後盾。

is that in society there's almost nothing comparable,

但令人驚訝的是，

no comparable investment,

社會科學是沒法比較的，

no systematic experiment, in the things capitalism isn't very good at,

我們沒有投入對稱的資金，

like compassion, or empathy, or relationships or care.

我們也不能針對同情心、同理心、關懷或關心等

Now, I didn't really understand that until I met this guy

這些資本主義所不擅長的事物，進行系統化的實驗。

who was then an 80-year-old, slightly shambolic man

在我遇見這個人之前，我還不太明白這個道理。

who lived on tomato soup and thought ironing was very overrated.

他那時候80歲了，是個有點雜亂無章的男人，

He had helped shape Britain's post-war institutions,

他喝蕃茄湯過活，還認為燙衣服太高級。

its welfare state, its economy,

他曾幫忙塑造英國戰後的機構，

but had sort of reinvented himself as a social entrepreneur,

包括福利國家、經濟等，

became an inventor of many, many different organizations.

但是有點像是重新把自己改造成一個社團創辦者，

Some famous ones like the Open University, which has 110,000 students,

成為一個發明許多許多不同組織的人。

the University of the Third Age, which has nearly half a million older people

其中一些有名的像是開放大學，有十一萬個學生，

teaching other older people,

還有第三年代大學，大概有50萬位年長者

as well as strange things like DIY garages and language lines

傳授學問給其他年長者。

and schools for social entrepreneurs.

也有一些奇怪的組織，像是自製車庫和語言學校，

And he ended his life selling companies to venture capitalists.

以及給社團創辦者的學校。

He believed if you see a problem, you shouldn't tell someone to act,

他的生命在把公司賣給創投業者後畫下終點。

you should act on it yourself, and he lived long enough

他相信如果你看到問題，不應該去叫別人行動，

and saw enough of his ideas first scorned and then succeed

你應該自己起而行。而他活的夠久，

that he said you should always take no as a question and not as an answer.

看得到他那些一開始被人譏笑的想法修成正果，

And his life was a systematic experiment to find better social answers,

他說你應該總是把「不行」看做問句，而不是答案。

not from a theory, but from experiment, and experiment involving the people

而他的一生就是系統化的實驗，找出更好的社會解答，

with the best intelligence on social needs,

不根據定理，而是實驗。他的實驗涵蓋那些

which were usually the people living with those needs.

最瞭解社會需求的人，

And he believed we live with others, we share the world with others

也通常就是亟需這些需求的人。

and therefore our innovation must be done with others too,

他也相信，我們和他人生活在一起，我們和他人分享這世界，

not doing things at people, for them, and so on.

因此我們的創新也必須借助他人的力量才能完成，

Now, what he did didn't used to have a name,

而不單只是為某人而做、或是為別人而做等等。

but I think it's rapidly becoming quite mainstream.

他原本沒沒無名，

It's what we do in the organization named after him

但我認為現在正快速演變成主流了。

where we try and invent, create, launch new ventures,

我們在組織裡做的事是以他命名，

whether it's schools, web companies, health organizations and so on.

在那裡我們試著發明、創造、開始新冒險，

And we find ourselves part of a very rapidly growing global movement

無論是學校、網路公司、健保機構等都一樣。

of institutions working on social innovation,

我們還發現自己已捲入一個急速成長的全球趨勢，

using ideas from design or technology or community organizing

成為致力於社會創新的機構，

to develop the germs of a future world, but through practice and through demonstration

利用設計、科技或社群組織引發的想法，

and not through theory.

培育未來世界的幼苗，但我們不靠理論空談，

And they're spreading from Korea to Brazil to India to the USA

而是實際演練和展示。

and across Europe.

這個趨勢從韓國傳到巴西，再傳到印度和美國，

And they've been given new momentum by the crisis, by the need for better answers

並橫跨整個歐洲。

to joblessness, community breakdown and so on.

金融危機帶給這股新趨勢新的動能，