And what I found was quite surprising.

我發現了令人驚訝的答案。

We started looking at things like death rates in the 20th century,

我們自二十世紀開始觀察死亡率，

and how they'd been improved, and very simple things turned out.

也研究如何降低死亡率，我們發現了一些很簡單的事情。

You'd think maybe antibiotics made more difference than clean water,

你或許會認為抗生素比乾淨水源來得重要，

but it's actually the opposite.

但結果恰恰相反。

And so very simple things -- off-the-shelf technologies

就是這麼簡單的事，這種現成的科技，

that we could easily find on the then-early Web --

隨手可得，還用不著網路，

would clearly make a huge difference to that problem.

就能顯著地改善問題。

But I also, in looking at more powerful technologies

但我同時也在注意一些更具威力的科技、

and nanotechnology and genetic engineering and other new emerging

奈米科技、基因工程和其他新興事物

kind of digital technologies, became very concerned

像是數位科技等，我非常擔心這些科技

about the potential for abuse.

會流於濫用。

If you think about it, in history, a long, long time ago

如果你去回想很久以前，在過往的歷史中，

we dealt with the problem of an individual abusing another individual.

當我們看到有一個人虐待另一個人的時候，

We came up with something -- the Ten Commandments: Thou shalt not kill.

我們就設立了像是十誡的東西來告誡人們：你不可以殺人。

That's a, kind of a one-on-one thing.

這像是一對一的機制。

We organized into cities. We had many people.

後來城市發展起來，人數變多了，

And to keep the many from tyrannizing the one,

而為了防止多數欺凌少數，

we came up with concepts like individual liberty.

我們設置了像是保護個人自由的觀念。

And then, to have to deal with large groups,

而後，為了處理更大的族群，

say, at the nation-state level,

像是國家或州的層級，

and we had to have mutual non-aggression,

我們必須讓雙方協議互不侵略，

or through a series of conflicts, we eventually came to

或是在經歷一連串的衝突後，

a rough international bargain to largely keep the peace.

才能達成國際間的協議以維持和平。

But now we have a new situation, really what people call

但是現在我們面臨了一個新的情況，就是人們所謂的

an asymmetric situation, where technology is so powerful

非對稱情況，運用科技這種強而有力的工具，

that it extends beyond a nation-state.

就可以超越國家界限。

It's not the nation-states that have potential access

具有這種潛在巨大毁滅力的

to mass destruction, but individuals.

不是國家，而是個人。

And this is a consequence of the fact that these new technologies tend to be digital.

而這就是新科技數位化的結果。

We saw genome sequences.

我們看過基因序列，

You can download the gene sequences

如果你想要，你可以從網路上下載這些

of pathogens off the Internet if you want to,

基因序列或是病原體資料，

and clearly someone recently -- I saw in a science magazine --

最近有人說--我從一本科學雜誌上看到--

they said, well, the 1918 flu is too dangerous to FedEx around.

若將1918年的流感病毒四處傳播的話，將是一件很危險的事。

If people want to use it in their labs for working on research,

假如有人想在他的實驗室裡研究1918年流感病毒，

just reconstruct it yourself,

只要靠自己就可以重建當時的傳染狀況，

because, you know, it might break in FedEx.

因為，這可能會因迅速傳播而爆發開來。

So that this is possible to do this is not deniable.

而這種可能性已是不可避免的了。

So individuals in small groups super-empowered by access to these

所以，如果有一群有心人誤用了某些科技資訊，

kinds of self-replicating technologies, whether it be biological

從而自行複製出像是生化或是其他威力強大的科技，

or other, are clearly a danger in our world.

對我們的世界而言明顯是種威脅。

And the danger is that they can cause roughly what's a pandemic.

其中的危險就在於他們可能釀成流行病。

And we really don't have experience with pandemics,

由於我們處理流行疾病的經驗不足，

and we're also not very good as a society at acting

我們在面對從未接觸過的疾病時，

to things we don't have direct and sort of gut-level experience with.

也顯得應變能力不足，

So it's not in our nature to pre-act.

所以我們根本就不知道該如何去防範。

And in this case, piling on more technology doesn't solve the problem,

而這種情況下，再多的科技也是無濟於事，

because it only super-empowers people more.

因為這只會讓有心人更加誤用科技而已。

So the solution has to be, as people like Russell and Einstein

想像一下像羅素和愛因斯坦等人，

and others imagine in a conversation that existed

如果他們能在二十世界初期，

in a much stronger form, I think, early in the 20th century,

進行一段精彩的對話，

that the solution had to be not just the head but the heart.

他們提出的解決方案就不會只是治標，而是要治本。

You know, public policy and moral progress.

隨著公共政策和道德觀的進步，

The bargain that gives us civilization is a bargain to not use power.

現代人得以享有現代文明社會的條件，就是不能使用武力。

We get our individual rights by society protecting us from others

社會賦予我們每個人權利去保護我們自己，

not doing everything they can do but largely doing only what is legal.

不是為所欲為的權利，但只要是合法的，都可以去做。

And so to limit the danger of these new things, we have to limit,

我們必須控制新科技可能帶來的危險，

ultimately, the ability of individuals

我們終究必須限制個人

to have access, essentially, to pandemic power.

探取引發流行疾病的力量。

We also have to have sensible defense, because no limitation

同時我們也必須要有合理的防禦，

is going to prevent a crazy person from doing something.

因為沒有什麼能限制得了一個瘋狂的人做些什麼。

And you know, and the troubling thing is that

如你所知，麻煩的就是

it's much easier to do something bad than to defend

使壞比去防堵壞事發生

against all possible bad things,

來得容易得多，

so the offensive uses really have an asymmetric advantage.

因此進攻的人的確具有一種不對等的優勢。

So these are the kind of thoughts I was thinking in 1999 and 2000,

所以這些就是我在1999年到2000年間的一些想法，

and my friends told me I was getting really depressed,

那時我的朋友們說我太過沮喪，

and they were really worried about me.

他們真的很擔心我。

And then I signed a book contract to write more gloomy thoughts about this

而後我簽了一紙合約，著手撰寫更陰鬱想法的書籍，

and moved into a hotel room in New York

然後搬到紐約的一家飯店，

with one room full of books on the Plague,

住進了一間塞滿災難禍患書籍的房間，

and you know, nuclear bombs exploding in New York

像是原子彈投在紐約，

where I would be within the circle, and so on.

我可能會受牽連這類的書。

And then I was there on September 11th,

那時我正好碰上911事件，

and I stood in the streets with everyone.

我和每個人一樣站在街頭，

And it was quite an experience to be there.

那種經驗真是難以令人忘懷。

I got up the next morning and walked out of the city,

隔天清晨我外出散步，

and all the sanitation trucks were parked on Houston Street

所有的清潔車都停在休士頓街，

and ready to go down and start taking the rubble away.

準備開始清理善後。

And I walked down the middle, up to the train station,

我走到中間去，上了火車月台，

and everything below 14th Street was closed.

14大街以下全都關閉。

It was quite a compelling experience, but not really, I suppose,

那是一個很令人深思的經驗，但是我認為，

a surprise to someone who'd had his room full of the books.

對一個房間充滿了陰鬱書籍的人而言，我不會太驚訝。

It was always a surprise that it happened then and there,

對人們來說，這種偶發事件是很令人驚訝沒錯，

but it wasn't a surprise that it happened at all.

但這種事終究是會發生的，沒什麼好驚訝的。

And everyone then started writing about this.

然後每個人都開始寫些關於這件事的文章，

Thousands of people started writing about this.

成千上萬的人們都在寫。

And I eventually abandoned the book, and then Chris called me

我後來放棄了那本書的撰寫，之後克里斯打電話給我，

to talk at the conference. I really don't talk about this anymore

要我在研討會上演講，但我已經不再講這類議題了，

because, you know, there's enough frustrating and depressing things going on.

因為你知道，世上讓人挫敗和氣餒的事已經夠多了。

But I agreed to come and say a few things about this.

但我同意來這跟大家說說這些，

And I would say that we can't give up the rule of law

我想跟大家說我們不能放棄

to fight an asymmetric threat, which is what we seem to be doing

我們目前正在做的事，就是去對抗這種不對稱的威脅，

because of the present, the people that are in power,

因為現狀很危急，也因為我們有能力去做，

because that's to give up the thing that makes civilization.

更因為我們不做就表示我們要放棄現代文明。

And we can't fight the threat in the kind of stupid way we're doing,

而我們不能用我們現在的笨方法去對抗這種威脅，

because a million-dollar act

因為你以數百萬美元去對抗，

causes a billion dollars of damage, causes a trillion dollar response

就會造成數十億美元的傷害，還需要花上數兆美元去修補，

which is largely ineffective and arguably, probably almost certainly,

這是很沒有效率的事，而且很有可能

has made the problem worse.

只會讓問題更糟。

So we can't fight the thing with a million-to-one cost,

所以我們不能以百萬的成本來對抗這種事，

one-to-a-million cost-benefit ratio.

因為獲利率可能只有百萬分之一。

So after giving up on the book -- and I had the great honor

所以在放棄寫書之後，我很榮幸的

to be able to join Kleiner Perkins about a year ago,

在一年前有機會加入美國KPCB風險投資公司，

and to work through venture capital on the innovative side,

從創新的一面去從事風險投資，

and to try to find some innovations that could address what I saw as

並且試著去找出一些創新方法來解決我所觀察到的

some of these big problems.

一些重大問題。

Things where, you know, a factor of 10 difference

一件事如果有十個不同的潛在因素，

can make a factor of 1,000 difference in the outcome.

就可能衍生出一千種不同的結果。

I've been amazed in the last year at the incredible quality

去年我看到一些創新方案，

and excitement of the innovations that have come across my desk.

這些方案的品質讓我感到驚嘆、興奮不已，

It's overwhelming at times. I'm very thankful for Google and Wikipedia

有時也會佩服得五體投地。我很感謝Google和維基百科，

so I can understand at least a little of what people are talking about

所以我至少能知道這些來來往往的人們，

who come through the doors.

都在談論些什麼。

But I wanted to share with you three areas

但我想跟各位分享三個領域，

that I'm particularly excited about and that relate to the problems

這些是我特別感興趣的領域，而且也跟我前面說的重大問題有關，

that I was talking about in the Wired article.

也就是我在Wired雜誌裡談到的問題。

The first is this whole area of education,

首先是關於教育，

and it really relates to what Nicholas was talking about with a $100 computer.

而這真的和尼可拉斯提出的百元電腦概念有關，

And that is to say that there's a lot of legs left in Moore's Law.

也就是說根據摩爾定律還有很大的成長空間。

The most advanced transistors today are at 65 nanometers,

現今最先進的電晶體是65奈米，

and we've seen, and I've had the pleasure to invest

我們已經看到有公司能做得更小，而我個人也很榮幸參與投資，

in, companies that give me great confidence that we'll extend Moore's Law

我有信心這些公司將會把摩爾定律擴充

all the way down to roughly the 10 nanometer scale.

到約莫十奈米那麼小。

Another factor of, say, six in dimensional reduction,

舉例來說，如果我們縮減六個維度，

which should give us about another factor of 100 in raw improvement

就能為晶片帶來百倍的改善，

in what the chips can do. And so, to put that in practical terms,

因此，應用在實際上，

if something costs about 1,000 dollars today,

就是如果現在有某樣東西價值一千美元，

say, the best personal computer you can buy, that might be its cost,

例如最頂級的個人電腦，我認為將來

I think we can have that in 2020 for 10 dollars. Okay?

或許在2020年就能以十美元買到。可以嗎?

Now, just imagine what that $100 computer will be in 2020

現在，想像一下現在做為教育工具的百元電腦，

as a tool for education.

在2020年會是什麼樣子。

I think the challenge for us is --

我認為我們的挑戰是--

I'm very certain that that will happen, the challenge is,

我認為非常有可能會發生，我們的挑戰就是，

will we develop the kind of educational tools and things with the net

我們能否發展出某項配有網路的教育工具，

to let us take advantage of that device?

讓我們能夠善加利用？

I'd argue today that we have incredibly powerful computers,

我可以說我們今天擁有了不起的電腦設備，

but we don't have very good software for them.

但我們沒有足夠的軟體。

And it's only in retrospect, after the better software comes along,

但這只是過去的情形，現在我們已經有了較好的軟體，

and you take it and you run it on a ten-year-old machine, you say,

你把它放在一台十年的機器上跑，你會問說，

God, the machine was that fast?

天啊，這機器能跑這麼快？

I remember when they took the Apple Mac interface

我還記得當他們把蘋果電腦麥金塔界面，

and they put it back on the Apple II.

放回到蘋果二代時，

The Apple II was perfectly capable of running that kind of interface,

蘋果二代在跑這種界面時表現完美，

we just didn't know how to do it at the time.

我們那時只是不知道該如何使用它而已。

So given that we know and should believe --

所以既然我們已經知道，而且我們應該相信--

because Moore's Law's been, like, a constant,

因為摩爾定律已是一個恆律，

I mean, it's just been very predictable progress

我是指，摩爾定律在過去四十多年來

over the last 40 years or whatever.

一直具有很高的預測能力，

We can know what the computers are going to be like in 2020.

所以我們可以得知在2020年的電腦會是什麼樣子。

It's great that we have initiatives to say,

我很高興我們能起風潮之先，呼籲大家，

let's go create the education and educate people in the world,

讓我們教育全世界的人們，

because that's a great force for peace.

因為這是一股偉大的和平力量。

And we can give everyone in the world a $100 computer

而且我們可以給世上每個人一台百元電腦，

or a $10 computer in the next 15 years.

或是在十五年後給他們一人一台十元電腦。

The second area that I'm focusing on is the environmental problem,

第二個領域是著重在環保議題，

because that's clearly going to put a lot of pressure on this world.

因為很明顯地這將會對世界造成壓力，

We'll hear a lot more about that from Al Gore very shortly.

很快地我們會從高爾的演講中得知更多細節。

The thing that we see as the kind of Moore's Law trend

就像摩爾定律的趨勢，能驅動我們提昇能力一樣，

that's driving improvement in our ability to address

我們現在會去注意到環保問題，

the environmental problem is new materials.

乃是因為有許多新的物質出現。

We have a challenge, because the urban population is growing

我們的挑戰是，由於都市人口激增，

in this century from two billion to six billion

本世紀的都市人口已在很短的時間內，

in a very short amount of time. People are moving to the cities.

從20億成長到60億。人們都遷入都市，

They all need clean water, they need energy, they need transportation,

他們需要乾淨的水源、能源、交通工具，

and we want them to develop in a green way.

而我們希望他們能用環保的方式解決這些需求。

We're reasonably efficient in the industrial sectors.

我們在工業方面是很有效率的，

We've made improvements in energy and resource efficiency,

我們在能源和資源的有效利用上，已做了大幅改善，

but the consumer sector, especially in America, is very inefficient.

但是在消費方面，尤其是在美國，還是很沒有效率的。

But these new materials bring such incredible innovations

但是這些新的物質帶來了非常大的創新概念，

that there's a strong basis for hope that these things

大家強烈希望這些東西

will be so profitable that they can be brought to the market.

能為市場帶來巨大的利益。

And I want to give you a specific example of a new material

我想舉一個十五年前發現的

that was discovered 15 years ago.

新的物質做為例子，

If we take carbon nanotubes, you know, Iijima discovered them in 1991,

如果我們採用奈米碳管，這是飯島博士在1991年發現的，

they just have incredible properties.

他們有很棒的特質。

And these are the kinds of things we're going to discover

而這類的事物就是我們將來要去發掘的，

as we start to engineer at the nano scale.

就像當時我們開始設計奈米尺度一樣。

Their strength: they're almost the strongest material,

它們的優點在於，它們幾乎是最強的材料，

tensile strength material known.

是目前已知抗張強度最強的材料。

They're very, very stiff. They stretch very, very little.

他們非常非常堅硬，很難延伸。

In two dimensions, if you make, like, a fabric out of them,

在二維空間裡，如果你用它來做像是纖維的東西，

they're 30 times stronger than Kevlar.

它們的強度是凱拉維纖維(防彈衣)的三十倍。

And if you make a three-dimensional structure, like a buckyball,

而如果你用它來做像巴克球(硬度較鑽石還硬)這種三維構造，

they have all sorts of incredible properties.

它們有各種很棒的特質。

If you shoot a particle at them and knock a hole in them,

如果你用粒子在它中間射穿一個洞，

they repair themselves; they go zip and they repair the hole

它們能自我修護；他們會把洞修補起來，

in femtoseconds, which is not -- is really quick.

即便不是飛秒--也是夠快了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

If you shine a light on them, they produce electricity.

如果你用光照射，它們就能產生電。

In fact, if you flash them with a camera they catch on fire.

事實上，如果你用相機的閃光燈照射，他們就會著火。

If you put electricity on them, they emit light.

如果你讓它們通電，他們就會產生光照。

If you run current through them, you can run 1,000 times more current

如果你引水穿過它們，和引水穿過金屬相比，

through one of these than through a piece of metal.

你將得到快一千倍的流速。

You can make both p- and n-type semiconductors,

你同時可以製造P型和N型的半導體，

which means you can make transistors out of them.

也就是說你可以用這種材質製作電晶體。

They conduct heat along their length but not across --

它們可以直向傳導熱能，而不是橫向傳導--

well, there is no width, but not in the other direction

雖然這種東西沒有寬度，但就算你把它們堆疊起來，

if you stack them up; that's a property of carbon fiber also.

也不會是從另一個方向傳導。它們也具有碳纖維的特質。

If you put particles in them, and they go shooting out the tip --

如果你放粒子進去，它們可以射穿尖端--

they're like miniature linear accelerators or electron guns.

它們就像是線性加速器或是微型電子槍。

The inside of the nanotubes is so small --

奈米管內觀非常的小--

the smallest ones are 0.7 nanometers --

最小的只有0.7奈米--

that it's basically a quantum world.

這基本上是一個量子的世界。

It's a strange place inside a nanotube.

在奈米管裡面是一個奇妙的世界。

And so we begin to see, and we've seen business plans already,

所以我們開始去看，而且我們也已經看過營運計劃，

where the kind of things Lisa Randall's talking about are in there.

在裡頭有著麗莎．蘭德爾所說的東西。

I had one business plan where I was trying to learn more about

我正試著研究著手頭上的一項營運計劃，

Witten's cosmic dimension strings to try to understand

這是一項由惠頓所提出的宇宙弦論，

what the phenomenon was going on in this proposed nanomaterial.

在這推論的奈米物質會發生什麼現象。

So inside of a nanotube, we're really at the limit here.

所以如果你以奈米管內部來看，我們的確受限於此。

So what we see is with these and other new materials

所以我們在這裡要找的就是其它新的物質，