Well, it's the era of a lot of different things

現在是環境，或生物，或信息技術的時代

that we're in right now. But one thing for sure:

當然，現在也是很多其他東西的時代

it's the era of change. There's more change going on

但是有一點是肯定的

than ever has occurred in the history of human life on earth.

現在是一個正在發生改變的時代

And you all sort of know it, but it's hard to get it

目前發生的變化是人類歷史上前所未有的

so that you really understand it.

儘管我們知道變化存在，但是卻很難完全掌握它們

And I've tried to put together something that's a good start for this.

以至於我們難於理解這些變化

I've tried to show in this -- though the color doesn't come out --

我稍微分析了一下這個問題

that what I'm concerned with is the little 50-year time bubble

我試過用這個圖演示，但是效果並不明顯

that you are in. You tend to be interested in a generation past,

我很關心後邊這段50年的虛線，它和大家息息相關

a generation future -- your parents, your kids, things you can change

人們關心一代人的過去

over the next few decades -- and this 50-year time bubble

一代人的未來，你的父母，你的孩子，以及

you kind of move along in. And in that 50 years,

未來幾十年你能改變的實。

if you look at the population curve, you find the population of humans

而你則沿著這代表50年的虛線前進。在未來50年，

on the earth more than doubles and we're up three-and-a-half times

從人口曲線上來看，和現在相比

since I was born. When you have a new baby,

地球上的人口會翻倍，而那時的人口和我出生的時候相比是

by the time that kid gets out of high school

三倍還要多。如果你有個孩子

more people will be added than existed on earth when I was born.

到孩子上完高中的时候

This is unprecedented, and it's big.

新增人口比我出生时的 已存人口还要多

Where it goes in the future is questioned. So that's the human part.

这是史无前例的 也是无比巨大的改变

Now, the human part related to animals: look at the left side of that.

人口的未来有很大的挑战。

What I call the human portion -- humans and their livestock and pets --

下面是人类和动物的关系。请看左边

versus the natural portion -- all the other wild animals and just --

我所謂的人類部份 就是 人類和人所畜養的牲畜和寵物

these are vertebrates and all the birds, etc.,

相對應的是自然部份 即 其他所有的野生動物

in the land and air, not in the water. How does it balance?

這些是脊椎動物和所有的鳥類 等等

Certainly, 10,000 years ago, the civilization's beginning,

在陸地上在空中 但是沒有水中的。 人類和自然是怎麼平衡的呢

the human portion was less than one tenth of one percent. Let's look at it now.

在一萬年前，人類文明才剛剛開始的時候

You follow this curve and you see the whiter spot in the middle --

人類部份不到千分之一。我們現在來看一下

that's your 50-year time bubble. Humans, livestock and pets

請看這條曲線，中間有一個比較白的點

are now 97 percent of that integrated total mass on earth

這就是未來50年的虛線。人類，牲畜和寵物

and all wild nature is three percent. We have won. The next generation

目前是地球上集合質量的百分之九十七

doesn't even have to worry about this game -- it is over.

所有的野生自然部份只佔百分之三。人類壓倒性的勝利了。

And the biggest problem came in the last 25 years:

我們的下一代不需要擔心人類和自然的競爭了。它已經結束了。

it went from 25 percent up to that 97 percent.

但是最近25年有最大的問題

And this really is a sobering picture upon realizing that we, humans,

人類的比例從25％直接躍升到97％

are in charge of life on earth; we're like the capricious Gods

這很明確的揭示出 人類已經開始掌控地球上的生命

of old Greek myths, kind of playing with life --

我們就像希臘神話中變幻莫測的古神

and not a great deal of wisdom injected into it.

我們在玩弄操縱著生命

Now, the third curve is information technology.

並沒有運用智慧來控制生命

This is Moore's Law plotted here, which relates to density

下面是第三條曲線，關於信息技術發展的曲線

of information, but it has been pretty good for showing

圖上畫出了關於信息密度的摩爾定律

a lot of other things about information technology --

但同時這張圖也很好的體現了

computers, their use, Internet, etc. And what's important

許多其他關於信息技術的內容

is it just goes straight up through the top of the curve,

其中包括電腦的使用，互聯網等等。最總要的是，

and has no real limits to it. Now try and contrast these.

這張圖看起來就是一直向上，從圖上垂直的延伸出去了

This is the size of the earth going through that same --

完全沒有一個真正的極限。但是我們對比一下

(Laughter)

這是地球的尺寸。地球的尺寸可是一直沒變。（水平的）

-- frame. And to make it really clear, I've put all four on one graph.

（笑聲）

There's no need to see the little detailed words on it.

為了更好說明這個問題，我把四張圖放到一起

That first one is humans-versus-nature;

我們不用看圖上具體的小字

we've won, there's no more gain. Human population.

第一張是人類和自然的對比

And so if you're looking for growth industries to get into,

毫無疑問，我們贏了。 接著是人口圖

that's not a good one -- protecting natural creatures. Human population

如果考慮進工業增長的話

is going up; it's going to continue for quite a while.

就不太妙了，要保護野生的生物啊。

Good business in obstetricians, morticians, and farming, housing, etc. --

人口還在增長。它將在很長一段時間保持增長

they all deal with human bodies, which require being fed,

產科醫生，喪葬業者，農業，建築業的生意都會很紅火

transported, housed and so on. And the information technology,

這些行業都是和人身體有關的：人的飲食，

which connects to our brains, has no limit -- now, that is a wonderful

人的交通，居住等等。 而信息技術

field to be in. You're looking for growth opportunity?

是和我們頭腦聯繫在一起的，它沒有極限。

It's just going up through the roof.

如果你想找一個發展的機會的，這可是個極好的領域！

And then, the size of the Earth. Somehow making these all compatible

這個領域的未來直上雲霄。

with the Earth looks like a pretty bad industry to be involved with.

然而地球的尺寸 在某種程度上限制了所有這些

So, that's the stage out of all this. I find,

這些發展一牽扯進地球好像就有問題了

for reasons I don't understand, I really do have a goal.

所以這就是目前的狀況

And the goal is that the world be desirable and sustainable

我發現了很多我不了解的原因，我有個目標

when my kids reach my age -- and I think that's -- in other words,

當我的孩子和我一個年齡的時候，

the next generation. I think that's a goal that we probably all share.

我希望這個世界變得理想且可持續。也就是說，為了下一代

I think it's a hopeless goal. Technologically, it's achievable;

我想這是所有人共同的目標

economically, it's achievable; politically,

但我覺得希望渺茫。技術上是可實現的

it means sort of the habits, institutions of people -- it's impossible.

經濟上是可實現的，但政治上

The institutions of the past with all their inertia

由於人的慣性和習慣，是不可能實現的。

are just irrelevant for the future, except they're there

過去的慣例都帶著慣性

and we have to deal with them. I spend about 15 percent of my time

這些慣例和未來不相干，但我們

trying to save the world, the other 85 percent, the usual --

還要解決掉它們。我用了15％的時間

and whatever else we devote ourselves to.

去保護這個世界，85％的時間

And in that 15 percent, the main focus is on human mind, thinking skills,

作平常的事

somehow trying to unleash kids from the straightjacket of school,

在15％的時間，我主要研究人思維的技能

which is putting information and dogma into them,

嘗試將孩子從學校的束縛中釋放出來

get them so they really think, ask tough questions, argue

學校用信息和教條束縛孩子

about serious subjects, don't believe everything that's in the book,

我想讓孩子會思考，問問題，討論

think broadly or creative. They can be.

嚴肅的問題，不要盡信書

Our school systems are very flawed and do not reward you

視野寬廣而有創造性。這是可以實現的。

for the things that are important in life

我們的教育系統有很大問題。

or for the survival of civilization; they reward you

它不鼓勵那些對人生，或者文明發展

for a lot of learning and sopping up stuff.

有價值的東西。它鼓勵學生

We can't go into that today because there isn't time --

學東西，死記知識

it's a broad subject. One thing for sure, in the future

由於時間關係我今天就不說這個話題了

there is an essential feature -- necessary, but not sufficient --

這牽涉很多。但有一點是肯定的，未來，

which is doing more with less. We've got to be doing things

有一個基本特徵。必要但不充分。

with more efficiency using less energy, less material.

即 用更少的東西完成更多的事。 我們必須有

Your great-great grandparents got by on muscle power,

更高的效率，用更少的能源，材料。

and yet we all think there's this huge power that's essential

你的祖爺爺靠肌肉的力量生活

for our lifestyle. And with all the wonderful technology we have

而我們認為我們的生活也是有一種力量支持的

we can do things that are much more efficient: conserve, recycle, etc.

在美妙科技的支持下

Let me just rush very quickly through things that we've done.

我們可以更有效率的生活：生態保護，循環利用等等

Human-powered airplane -- Gossamer Condor sort of started me

讓我快速談談我們已經取得的成就

in this direction in 1976 and 77,

人力飛機－“遊絲禿鷲”在1976 1977年

winning the Kremer prize in aviation history,

啓發了我

followed by the Albatross. And we began

在飛行史上，它贏得了Ｋremer奖

making various odd planes and creatures.

後來還有一個“信天翁". 接著我們

Here's a giant flying replica of a pterosaur that has no tail.

開始製造各種奇怪的飛機和仿生飛行器

Trying to have it fly straight is like trying to shoot an arrow

這是一個摹仿 大型無尾儀隴的作品

with the feathered end forward. It was a tough job,

它像一隻箭一樣直線飛

and boy it made me have a lot of respect for nature.

尾翼還有羽毛。這很難造

This was the full size of the original creature.

在過程中，我對自然產生了很多敬畏

We did things on land, in the air, on water --

它和原本生物的尺寸一樣

vehicles of all different kinds, usually with some electronics

我們造了陸地，空中，水上

or electric power systems in them. I find they're all the same,

的各種交通工具。通常帶有電子設備

whether its land, air or water.

或者電氣系統的。我發現都差不多。

I'll be focusing on the air here. This is a solar-powered airplane --

不管事陸地 空中還是水上的。

165 miles carrying a person from France to England

我著重講飛行器。這是一架太陽能驅動的飛機

as a symbol that solar power is going to be an important part

它載著一個人飛了165英里 從法國飛到英國

of our future. Then we did the solar car for General Motors --

作為一個太陽能的象徵。太陽能未來會很重要

the Sunracer -- that won the race in Australia.

我們為通用汽車GM做了太陽能車

We got a lot of people thinking about electric cars,

在澳大利亞贏得了太陽能車的比賽

what you could do with them. A few years later, when we suggested to GM that

我們很多人在想電動車

now is the time and we could do a thing called the Impact,

能做甚麼。幾年前，我們告訴通用汽車GM公司

they sponsored it, and here's the Impact that we developed with them

現在是時候了，我們可以造一個叫“影響力”的車

on their programs. This is the demonstrator. And they put huge effort

它們贊助了，這就是我們和他們一起開發的 車。

into turning it into a commercial product.

這是一個概念車。他們投入了很多

With that preamble, let's show the first two-minute videotape,

去把它變成一個商業產品

which shows a little airplane for surveillance

開場白結束，讓我們看一段兩分鐘的視頻

and moving to a giant airplane.

展示了一架小監察幾

Narrator: A tiny airplane, the AV Pointer serves for surveillance --

怎麼變成一架巨型飛機的。

in effect, a pair of roving eyeglasses. A cutting-edge example

（旁白）：小飛機，AV指針是起監察作用的

of where miniaturization can lead if the operator is remote

是一幅粗紗鏡片。一個極端的例子展示

from the vehicle. It is convenient to carry, assemble

如果操作員在遠處，先導作用的效果

and launch by hand. Battery-powered, it is silent and rarely noticed.

它容易帶著，組裝

It sends high-resolution video pictures back to the operator.

手動發射。電池供能，很安靜，不容易被發現

With onboard GPS, it can navigate autonomously,

接受高分辨率圖像並發送回操作員

and it is rugged enough to self-land without damage.

帶有機載GPS，它可以自動導航

The modern sailplane is superbly efficient.

很耐用，可以自主降落並沒有損傷。

Some can glide as flat as 60 feet forward for every foot of descent.

現代滑翔機超級高效

They are powered only by the energy

每降低一英尺可以向前平飛60英尺

they can extract from the atmosphere --

它們僅僅靠來自

an atmosphere nature stirs up by solar energy.

大氣的能量。

Humans and soaring birds have found nature to be generous

大氣被太陽能激起而產生的動能（風和各種空氣亂流）

in providing replenishable energy. Sailplanes have flown

自然很慷慨的給與人和鳥類

over 1,000 miles, and the altitude record is over 50,000 feet.

可再生的能源。滑翔機最多

(Music)

飛過1000英里，高度紀錄超過50000英尺

The Solar Challenger was made to serve as a symbol

音樂

that photovoltaic cells can produce real power

“太陽挑戰者”飛機體現出

and will be part of the world's energy future.

光伏電池（太陽照射，產生電流）可以產生真的力量

In 1981, it flew 163 miles from Paris to England,

將成為世界能源未來的一部分

solely on the power of sunbeams,

1981年 它飛了163英里從巴黎到英國

and established a basis for the Pathfinder.

直利用太陽光束的能量

(Music)

並為“探路者”飛機打下基礎

The message from all these vehicles is that ideas and technology

音樂

can be harnessed to produce remarkable gains in doing more with less --

這些作品告訴我們 想法和技術

gains that can help us attain a desirable balance

可以被用來產生顯著的收益 用更少做更多。

between technology and nature. The stakes are high

這些收益幫助我們維持一個理想的

as we speed toward a challenging future.

技術與科技的平衡。 我們高速發展

Buckminster Fuller said it clearly: "there are no passengers

有著很大的風險

on spaceship Earth, only crew. We, the crew,

Buckminister Fuller說得很清楚： 在地球這架宇宙艦上

can and must do more with less -- much less."

沒有旅客，只有船員。我們就是船員，

Paul MacCready: If we could have the second video, the one-minute,

我們可以，必需用很少很少做很多的事

put in as quickly as you can, which -- this will show

我們很快的放一下第二個視頻

the Pathfinder airplane in some flights this past year in Hawaii,

一分鐘的視頻，展示

and will show a sequence of some of the beauty behind it

探路者 飛機去年在夏威夷的幾個飛行

after it had just flown to 71,530 feet --

還有在它飛到71530英尺後

higher than any propeller airplane has ever flown.

所留下的一系列美妙事情。

It's amazing: just on the puny power of the sun --

它的飛行高度比任何螺旋槳飛機都高

by having a super lightweight plane, you're able to get it up there.

這很奇妙，僅僅靠微薄的太陽能

It's part of a long-term program NASA sponsored.

這家超級輕的飛機就能飛那麼高

And we worked very closely with the whole thing being a team effort,

它是一個NASA（美國宇航局）長期資助的項目

and with wonderful results like that flight.

我們緊密的協作

And we're working on a bigger plane -- 220-foot span --

產生了這此美妙的飛行

and an intermediate-size, one with a regenerative fuel cell

我們正在造更大的飛機 220英尺翼展

that can store excess energy during the day, feed it back at night,

以及一個中尺寸的飛機 帶有重複充電燃料電池。

and stay up 65,000 feet for months at a time.

它可以白天充電，晚上放電繼續使用

(Music)

並一次保持65000英尺的高度一個月之久

Ray Morgan's voice will come in here.

音樂

There he's the project manager. Anything they do

Ray Morgan會出現

is certainly a team effort. He ran this program. Here's ...

他是項目經理。所有這一切都是

some things he showed as a celebration at the very end.

團隊協作的結果。他負責這個項目

Ray Morgan: We'd just ended a seven-month deployment of Hawaii.

這是他在項目結束 慶祝時候說得：

For those who live on the mainland, it was tough being away from home.

我們剛剛結束在夏威夷一個月的部署

The friendly support, the quiet confidence, congenial hospitality

對於那些生活在大陸的人，遠離家鄉很難熬

shown by our Hawaiian and military hosts --

夏威夷人和軍隊所展現的

(Music)

友好幫助，無聲的信任和適宜的款待

this is starting --

音樂

made the experience enjoyable and unforgettable.

這開始了－

PM: We have real-time IR scans going out through the Internet

使得這個經歷有樂趣且難忘

while the plane is flying. And it's exploring

在飛機飛的時候 我們進行了

without polluting the stratosphere. That's its goal: the stratosphere,

通過互聯網傳送的實時的紅外線掃描。

the blanket that really controls the radiation of the earth

它探測的時候，不會污染平流層。這是它的目的。

and permits life on earth to be the success that it is --

平流層像一個毯子，保護地球免於輻射

probing that is very important. And also we consider it

使得生命在地球上得以繁衍

as a sort of poor man's stationary satellite,

探測平流層很重要。我們還把它當作

because it can stay right overhead for months at a time,

一種廉價的靜態衛星

2,000 times closer than the real GFC synchronous satellite.

因為它可以靜止在一個地方數月之久

We couldn't bring one here to fly it and show you.

比真正的同步軌道衛星，離地球近2000倍

But now let's look at the other end.

我們不能把它帶到著 飛給你看

In the video you saw that nine-pound or eight-pound Pointer airplane

但是來看另一方面。 好。 我給你看－

surveillance drone that Keenan has developed

在那個視頻里 你看到了8，9磅重的

and just done a remarkable job. Where some have servos

Keenan開發的無人偵察機

that have gotten down to, oh, 18 or 25 grams,

他幹得漂亮。有些飛機的輔助系統

his weigh one-third of a gram. And what he's going to bring out here

下降到18或者25克

is a surveillance drone that weighs about 2 ounces --

他的僅僅重三分之一克。他要帶過來一個

that includes the video camera, the batteries that run it,

僅重2盎斯的偵察機

the telemetry, the receiver and so on. And we'll fly it, we hope,

其中包括了攝像頭，電池

with the same success that we had last night when we did the practice.

遙測器，接收機等等。 我們還會飛一下

So Matt Keenan, just any time you're --

我們希望能和昨天晚上我們試飛的時候一樣成功

all right

好，Matt Keenan, 等你準備好－

-- ready to let her go. But first, we're going to make sure

好的

that it's appearing on the screen, so you see what it sees.

準備起飛。首先，我們要確保它的影響能

You can imagine yourself being a mouse or fly inside of it,

出現在屏幕上，你們能看到飛機看到的東西

looking out of its camera.

你可以把自己想像成老鼠，在裡邊飛

Matt Keenan: It's switched on.

從攝像頭看出去

PM: But now we're trying to get the video. There we go.

開關打開了