and then I found out I'm leading off the "Nightmare?" section of it.

我很興奮能參與這次的 主題「夢想」，

(Laughter)

沒想到我卻在「惡夢」 這部分做開場。

And certainly there are things about the climate crisis that qualify.

（笑聲）

And I have some bad news,

氣候危機在某些方面 確實是場惡夢，

but I have a lot more good news.

我有一些壞消息，

I'm going to propose three questions

但我有更多的好消息。

and the answer to the first one

我將會提出三個問題，

necessarily involves a little bad news.

而第一個問題的答案

But -- hang on, because the answers to the second and third questions

無可避免的帶有一些壞消息。

really are very positive.

但是別喪氣， 因為第二和第三個問題的答案

So the first question is, "Do we really have to change?"

都是非常正向的。

And of course, the Apollo Mission, among other things

那麼，第一個問題是 「我們真的需要改變嗎？」

changed the environmental movement,

當然，阿波羅計畫以及其他事物

really launched the modern environmental movement.

改變了環境運動，

18 months after this Earthrise picture was first seen on earth,

真正發起了現代環境運動。

the first Earth Day was organized.

在這張地球升起的照片 首次出現在地球上的 18 個月後，

And we learned a lot about ourselves

第一次世界地球日（活動） 組織成立了。

looking back at our planet from space.

藉由從宇宙回顧我們的星球，

And one of the things that we learned

我們也更加認識了自己。

confirmed what the scientists have long told us.

而我們所發現的其中一件事，

One of the most essential facts

證實了長久以來科學家告訴我們的。

about the climate crisis has to do with the sky.

其中一項最重要的事實，

As this picture illustrates,

就是氣候危機和天空息息相關。

the sky is not the vast and limitless expanse

如照片所示，

that appears when we look up from the ground.

天空並非像我們 從地上仰望所看到的

It is a very thin shell of atmosphere

那樣廣大且遼闊無邊。

surrounding the planet.

天空是一層非常薄的大氣層

That right now is the open sewer for our industrial civilization

環繞著地球。

as it's currently organized.

現在它就像是一條 飽受汙染的無蓋下水道，

We are spewing 110 million tons

由目前的工業文明架構所導致。

of heat-trapping global warming pollution into it every 24 hours,

我們每 24 小時便排放出 １億１千萬噸

free of charge, go ahead.

會暖化地球的汙染物 進入大氣層，

And there are many sources of the greenhouse gases,

免費無負擔，儘管做吧。

I'm certainly not going to go through them all.

而溫室氣體的來源有很多，

I'm going to focus on the main one,

我當然無法一一敘明。

but agriculture is involved, diet is involved, population is involved.

我會專注在主要的來源上，

Management of forests, transportation,

但，農業是其中之一， 飲食也是、人口也是。

the oceans, the melting of the permafrost.

林業、運輸、

But I'm going to focus on the heart of the problem,

海洋、永凍土融化統統都是。

which is the fact that we still rely on dirty, carbon-based fuels

不過我會聚焦在問題的核心，

for 85 percent of all the energy that our world burns every year.

也就是事實上 全世界每年有 85% 的能源

And you can see from this image that after World War II,

依然是靠燃燒骯髒的 碳基燃料所產生。

the emission rates started really accelerating.

從圖上你們可以看到在二戰後，

And the accumulated amount of man-made, global warming pollution

碳排放率開始急遽竄升。

that is up in the atmosphere now

而大量累積的 人為地球暖化物染物

traps as much extra heat energy as would be released

現在上升到大氣層中，

by 400,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs exploding

困住的多餘熱能，相當於每 24 小時 便引爆 40 萬顆廣島原子彈，

every 24 hours, 365 days a year.

而且持續連爆一年 365 天。

Fact-checked over and over again,

事實查證了一遍又一遍，

conservative, it's the truth.

保守而言，這是事實。

Now it's a big planet, but --

這是一個巨大的星球，但是……

(Explosion sound)

（爆炸聲）

that is a lot of energy,

那可是很多的能量。

particularly when you multiply it 400,000 times per day.

特別是當你把它乘上 每天 40 萬倍。

And all that extra heat energy

並且，所有那些多餘的熱能

is heating up the atmosphere, the whole earth system.

正在把大氣層、 整個地球系統加溫。

Let's look at the atmosphere.

我們來看一下大氣層。

This is a depiction

這是我們過去 認為正常的溫度分布圖。

of what we used to think of as the normal distribution of temperatures.

白色代表正常溫度的日子；

The white represents normal temperature days;

1951-1980 年是隨機選擇的年份。

1951-1980 are arbitrarily chosen.

藍色是比平均冷的日子，

The blue are cooler than average days,

紅色是比平均熱的日子。

the red are warmer than average days.

但是在 1980 年代 整個曲線移動到了右方。

But the entire curve has moved to the right in the 1980s.

你們會看到在右下角，

And you'll see in the lower right-hand corner

在統計上極度炎熱的日子 出現了相當顯著的數字。

the appearance of statistically significant numbers

在 90 年代 曲線又更進一步往右移。

of extremely hot days.

在最近的 10 年， 你們看到極度炎熱的日子

In the 90s, the curve shifted further.

現在比起相對冷的日子 多出了很多天。

And in the last 10 years, you see the extremely hot days

事實上，炎熱的天數 在地球表面整整多出了 150 倍，

are now more numerous than the cooler than average days.

跟短短 30 年前相比。

In fact, they are 150 times more common on the surface of the earth

所以我們正擁有著破紀錄的溫度，

than they were just 30 years ago.

在 15 個有使用儀器測量 最熱的年份中，

So we're having record-breaking temperatures.

有 14 個是在這個年輕的世紀。

Fourteen of the 15 of the hottest years ever measured with instruments

其中最熱的一年是去年，

have been in this young century.

上個月則是 第 371 個連續的月份，

The hottest of all was last year.

比 20 世紀的平均溫度還要熱。

Last month was the 371st month in a row

並且，上個月不僅是 有始以來最熱的一月，

warmer than the 20th-century average.

還是第一次 比平均高了華氏 2 度。

And for the first time, not only the warmest January,

較高的溫度對動物、

but for the first time, it was more than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer

植物、人類及生態系統都有影響。

than the average.

在以全球為基準的情況下， 93% 的多餘熱能

These higher temperatures are having an effect on animals,

是被困在海洋中。

plants, people, ecosystems.

而科學家對於溫度的攀升

But on a global basis, 93 percent of all the extra heat energy

現在有更精準的測量，

is trapped in the oceans.

在各種深度：深、中層海洋

And the scientists can measure the heat buildup

以及僅數百公尺淺層海洋，

much more precisely now

溫度都正在加升。

at all depths: deep, mid-ocean,

這可以回溯到一個多世紀以前。

the first few hundred meters.

並且有超過一半的升溫 是發生在過去 19 年。

And this, too, is accelerating.

這些是有後果的。

It goes back more than a century.

第一個後果便是

And more than half of the increase has been in the last 19 years.

發源於海洋的風暴變得更強烈。

This has consequences.

超級颱風海燕 在侵襲獨魯萬市之前，

The first order of consequence:

經過的太平洋地區 比平常的溫度高了華氏 5.5 度，

the ocean-based storms get stronger.

而以有始以來 最具破壞性的颱風姿態登陸。

Super Typhoon Haiyan went over areas of the Pacific

教宗方濟各 在這整個議題上作了許多努力，

five and a half degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal

在那之後立刻拜訪了獨魯萬市。

before it slammed into Tacloban,

颶風桑迪在侵襲 紐約與紐澤西之前，

as the most destructive storm ever to make landfall.

行經的大西洋區 比平常溫度高了華氏 9 度。

Pope Francis, who has made such a difference to this whole issue,

而第二個後果 現在正影響著我們所有人。

visited Tacloban right after that.

升溫後的海洋 蒸發更多的水蒸氣進入天空。

Superstorm Sandy went over areas of the Atlantic

世界各地的平均濕度 已增加了 4%，

nine degrees warmer than normal

並製造出這些大氣長河。

before slamming into New York and New Jersey.

巴西的科學家稱它們為 「飛行的河流」。

The second order of consequences are affecting all of us right now.

它們把那些額外的水蒸氣 注入到大地之上，

The warmer oceans are evaporating much more water vapor into the skies.

觸發暴雨條件造成 這些破紀錄的傾盆大雨。

Average humidity worldwide has gone up four percent.

這是來自蒙大那州的照片。

And it creates these atmospheric rivers.

看一下這個去年八月的暴風雨。

The Brazilian scientists call them "flying rivers."

隨著它行經亞利桑那州土桑市，

And they funnel all of that extra water vapor over the land

它就如字面上的意思 「倒濕」了整個城市。

where storm conditions trigger these massive record-breaking downpours.

這些傾盆大雨非常的不尋常。

This is from Montana.

去年七月在德州休士頓

Take a look at this storm last August.

下了兩天的雨， 雨量高達一千六百二十億加侖。

As it moves over Tucson, Arizona.

這比尼加拉瓜瀑布 在此城市之中

It literally splashes off the city.

以全流量流出兩天的水量還多，

These downpours are really unusual.

理所當然地，使之癱瘓。

Last July in Houston, Texas,

這些空前的大雨造成了 歷史性的洪水與土石流。

it rained for two days, 162 billion gallons.

這是去年的智利。

That represents more than two days of the full flow of Niagara Falls

你會看到那個倉庫被沖走。

in the middle of the city,

那邊是油罐車漂過。

which was, of course, paralyzed.

這是來自去年九月的西班牙，

These record downpours are creating historic floods and mudslides.

我猜你們可以稱這個作 川流不息的汽車與卡車。

This one is from Chile last year.

現在每一晚的電視新聞都像

And you'll see that warehouse going by.

在聖經《啟示錄》裡健行一樣。 （注：世界末日災難不斷）

There are oil tankers cars going by.

（笑聲）

This is from Spain last September,

我是說真的。

you could call this the running of the cars and trucks, I guess.

保險產業必然已經注意到

Every night on the TV news now is like a nature hike

虧損正在增長。

through the Book of Revelation.

他們對於正在發生的事 沒有任何的錯覺。

(Laughter)

而因果關係需要花一段時間討論。

I mean, really.

我們習慣於 線性因果關係的思考──

The insurance industry has certainly noticed,

一個原因，一個後果。

the losses have been mounting up.

然而這是一個系統的因果關係。

They're not under any illusions about what's happening.

如同偉大的氣象學家 凱文‧崔伯斯所說：

And the causality requires a moment of discussion.

「現在所有的暴風雨都是不同的，

We're used to thinking of linear cause and linear effect --

大氣層中有太多多餘的能量，

one cause, one effect.

有太多額外的水蒸氣，

This is systemic causation.

每個暴風雨現在都是不一樣的。」

As the great Kevin Trenberth says,

而，同樣的多餘熱能 把土壤中的水分帶離土地，

"All storms are different now.

造成這些更深、更久 更常見的乾旱，

There's so much extra energy in the atmosphere,

現在還有很多也依然在持續。

there's so much extra water vapor.

乾旱使草木枯萎，

Every storm is different now."

並在北美洲西部造成更多火災。

So, the same extra heat pulls the soil moisture out of the ground

很顯然還有其它跡象， 很多的跡象。

and causes these deeper, longer, more pervasive droughts

更多的閃電，

and many of them are underway right now.

隨著熱能的增加，

It dries out the vegetation

有相當程度的額外閃電也增加了。

and causes more fires in the western part of North America.

這些與氣候相關的災難 同時也帶來地緣政治的後果，

There's certainly been evidence of that, a lot of them.

並造成動盪。

More lightning,

敘利亞自 2006 年開始， 因氣候導致的歷史性乾旱

as the heat energy builds up, there's a considerable amount

摧毀了敘利亞 60% 的農田，

of additional lightning also.

導致 80% 的牲畜死亡，

These climate-related disasters also have geopolitical consequences

並驅使 150 萬名氣候難民 進入敘利亞的城市，

and create instability.

在那裡他們還會碰上 另外 150 萬

The climate-related historic drought that started in Syria in 2006

源自於伊拉克戰爭的難民。

destroyed 60 percent of the farms in Syria,

再綜合其他因素， 地獄之門便被開啟了，

killed 80 percent of the livestock,

人們現在在試圖關上它。

and drove 1.5 million climate refugees into the cities of Syria,

美國國防部早已警告

where they collided with another 1.5 million refugees

氣候危機會造成的後果，

from the Iraq War.

包括難民、食物以及水源短缺，

And along with other factors, that opened the gates of Hell

還有流行性疾病。

that people are trying to close now.

現在我們看到來自熱帶地區的 微生物傳染疾病

The US Defense Department has long warned

散播到較高緯度的地區；

of consequences from the climate crisis,

交通運輸革新對此有很大的影響。

including refugees, food and water shortages

但改變中的自然條件， 也改變了這些微生物疾病