I told you that the statistics of the world

我們已經談過了

have not been made properly available.

世界的統計資料並不為人們所知

Because of that, we still have the old mindset

所以我們仍錯誤的

of developing in industrialized countries, which is wrong.

把世界劃分為發達國家與發展中國家

And that animated graphics can make a difference.

但是新的統計數據動畫技術將引領變革

Things are changing

變革已經開始

and today, on the United Nations Statistic Division Home Page,

今天，在聯合國統計署的官方網站上

it says, by first of May, full access to the databases.

通告說5月1日以後所有數據庫向公眾開放

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And if I could share the image with you on the screen.

我們一起看大屏幕

So three things have happened.

（過去1年中）發生了3件事

U.N. opened their statistic databases,

聯合國開放了他們的數據庫

and we have a new version of the software

我們的軟件推出了新版本

up working as a beta on the net,

其測試版可以在線使用

so you don't have to download it any longer.

所以今後大家再也不用下載了

And let me repeat what you saw last year.

首先我們回顧一下去年的內容

The bubbles are the countries.

每個球代表一個國家

Here you have the fertility rate -- the number of children per woman --

X軸是生育率，每個婦女的育兒數

and there you have the length of life in years.

Y軸是平均壽命年數

This is 1950 -- those were the industrialized countries,

當前數據是1950年，這些是發達國家

those were developing countries.

這些是發展中國家

At that time there was a "we" and "them."

那時世界是由“我們和他們”構成的

There was a huge difference in the world.

那時候各國差距很大

But then it changed, and it went on quite well.

後來世界往好的方向上改變了

And this is what happens.

這就是變化的過程

You can see how China is the red, big bubble.

那個大的紅球代表中國

The blue there is India.

而那個大的藍球代表印度

And they go over all this -- I'm going to try to be

（今年我想

a little more serious this year in showing you

稍微嚴肅一些地向你們展示

how things really changed.

世界的發展過程）

And it's Africa that stands out as the problem down here, doesn't it?

而這些（小的深藍色球）非洲國家正是問題所在

Large families still, and the HIV epidemic

龐大的家庭，艾滋病流行

brought down the countries like this.

導致平均壽命下降

This is more or less what we saw last year,

這基本上就是去年我們所講的內容

and this is how it will go on into the future.

而這是對未來的預測

And I will talk on, is this possible?

我得說這些只是可能發生的

Because you see now, I presented statistics that don't exist.

因為現在我們看到的實際上是不存在的統計數據

Because this is where we are.

這是目前的實際情況

Will it be possible that this will happen?

也許未來的發展會像這樣

I cover my lifetime here, you know?

（這段時間）包含了我的人生

I expect to live 100 years.

我期望活到100歲

And this is where we are today.

這是今天的世界

Now could we look here instead at the economic situation in the world?

我們看看世界的經濟情況

And I would like to show that against child survival.

和對應的兒童健康狀況

We'll swap the axis.

我們翻轉一下Y軸

Here you have child mortality -- that is, survival --

現在Y軸是兒童死亡率

four kids dying there, 200 dying there.

這裡是千分之四，而那裡是千分之兩百

And this is GDP per capita on this axis.

X軸是人均GDP

And this was 2007.

當前是2007年的數據

And if I go back in time, I've added some historical statistics --

如果我們回到過去，我們增加了一些歷史數據

here we go, here we go, here we go -- not so much statistics 100 years ago.

100年前沒有多少數據統計

Some countries still had statistics.

只有少數國家有數據可查

We are looking down in the archive,

我們參考了歷史文獻的記載

and when we are down into 1820,

現在我們看到的是1820年的數據

there is only Austria and Sweden that can produce numbers.

那時只有奧地利和瑞典人識數

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But they were down here. They had 1,000 dollars per person per year.

但他們在下邊，每人每年1000美元的收入

And they lost one-fifth of their kids before their first birthday.

五分之一的孩子活不到1歲生日

So this is what happens in the world, if we play the entire world.

這就是那時的世界。再看看世界的發展

How they got slowly richer and richer,

這些國家慢慢變得富有

and they add statistics.

另一些國家開始擁有統計數據

Isn't it beautiful when they get statistics?

（這些數據是不是很漂亮？

You see the importance of that?

大家發現統計的重要性了吧）

And here, children don't live longer.

但是兒童健康並沒有得到很大的改善

The last century, 1870, was bad for the kids in Europe,

在19世紀70年代左右，歐洲的孩子們很不幸

because most of this statistics is Europe.

因為這些數據都來自歐洲國家

It was only by the turn of the century

直到19世紀與20世紀交替的時候

that more than 90 percent of the children survived their first year.

90%以上的孩子能慶祝1歲生日

This is India coming up, with the first data from India.

現在出現的是印度（藍球）

And this is the United States moving away here, earning more money.

而這個（黃球）是美國，人們的錢包越來越鼓

And we will soon see China coming up in the very far end corner here.

中國（大的紅球）出現在遠處的角落

And it moves up with Mao Tse-Tung getting health,

毛澤東時代，中國兒童健康不斷改善

not getting so rich.

但是收入的增加很緩慢

There he died, then Deng Xiaoping brings money.

毛澤東去世後，鄧小平帶來了金錢

It moves this way over here.

中國朝著高收入的方向發展

And the bubbles keep moving up there,

其他國家也都在發展

and this is what the world looks like today.

這就是今天我們的世界

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Let us have a look at the United States.

現在我們看看美國

We have a function here -- I can tell the world, "Stay where you are."

（新軟件）多了一個選項，可以讓世界（其他國家）靜止

And I take the United States -- we still want to see the background --

我們把美國選定，把背景調亮

I put them up like this, and now we go backwards.

這樣可以看到其他國家

And we can see that the United States

接著我們回到過去

goes to the right of the mainstream.

美國始終在主流的右側

They are on the money side all the time.

他們總和錢站在同一邊

And down in 1915, the United States was a neighbor of India --

回到1915年，當時的美國

present, contemporary India.

和今天的印度差不多

And that means United States was richer,

當時的美國（比今天的印度）更富有

but lost more kids than India is doing today, proportionally.

兒童死亡率卻更高

And look here -- compare to the Philippines of today.

再看這裡，菲律賓（與美國）相比

The Philippines of today has almost the same economy

菲律賓今天的經濟水平

as the United States during the First World War.

與一戰時期的美國差不多

But we have to bring United States forward quite a while

但美國需要（從一戰後）發展多少年

to find the same health of the United States

才能達到菲律賓今天的兒童健康水平呢

as we have in the Philippines.

才能達到菲律賓今天的兒童健康水平呢

About 1957 here, the health of the United States

直到1957年，美國的兒童健康水平

is the same as the Philippines.

才和今天的菲律賓一樣

And this is the drama of this world which many call globalized,

這就是世界發展的劇本，很多人稱之為“全球化”

is that Asia, Arabic countries, Latin America,

也就是說在亞洲，阿拉伯國家和拉丁美洲

are much more ahead in being healthy, educated,

其健康和教育水平的發展速度

having human resources than they are economically.

遠超過了經濟發展的速度

There's a discrepancy in what's happening today

而在今天的新興國家中

in the emerging economies.

發展的差異

There now, social benefits, social progress,

更多的體現在社會的進步

are going ahead of economical progress.

而不是經濟的發展

And 1957 -- the United States had the same economy as Chile has today.

1957年美國的經濟水平與今天的智利相近

And how long do we have to bring United States

但美國需要發展多少年

to get the same health as Chile has today?

才能達到智利今天的兒童健康水平呢

I think we have to go, there -- we have 2001, or 2002 --

（我們要等到）2002年

the United States has the same health as Chile.

美國的兒童健康水平才和今天的智利一樣

Chile's catching up!

智利已經趕上來了！

Within some years Chile may have better child survival

幾年後智利的兒童健康

than the United States.

可能會超過美國

This is really a change, that you have this lag

這真是很大的變化，在不同的國家

of more or less 30, 40 years' difference on the health.

經濟發展和健康水平的差距有30，40年

And behind the health is the educational level.

而在這個背後，有教育的差距

And there's a lot of infrastructure things,

還有基礎設施的差距

and general human resources are there.

以及人力資源的差距等等

Now we can take away this --

我們現在把其他國家去掉

and I would like to show you the rate of speed,

再來看看不同的國家

the rate of change, how fast they have gone.

其發展速度有怎樣的差異

And we go back to 1920, and I want to look at Japan.

回到1920年，先選定日本

And I want to look at Sweden and the United States.

選定瑞典和美國

And I'm going to stage a race here

我們將舉辦一場車賽

between this sort of yellowish Ford here

選手分別是黃色的福特車（美國）

and the red Toyota down there,

紅色的豐田車（日本）

and the brownish Volvo.

和棕色的沃爾沃車（瑞典）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And here we go. Here we go.

比賽開始

The Toyota has a very bad start down here, you can see,

豐田車啟動時的表現很差

and the United States Ford is going off-road there.

福特車駛出了賽道

And the Volvo is doing quite fine.

沃爾沃表現的很不錯

This is the war. The Toyota got off track, and now

二戰時，豐田車跑到了賽道外

the Toyota is coming on the healthier side of Sweden --

但它（很快調整好）並在健康水平高於瑞典的一側運行

can you see that?

但它（很快調整好）並在健康水平高於瑞典的一側運行

And they are taking over Sweden,

現在它的健康水平

and they are now healthier than Sweden.

已經超過了瑞典

That's the part where I sold the Volvo and bought the Toyota.

就在那一年我把自己的沃爾沃換成了豐田車

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And now we can see that the rate of change was enormous in Japan.

我們看到日本的變化速度是驚人的

They really caught up.

他們確實赶超了上來

And this changes gradually.

但是這種變化是逐步發生的

We have to look over generations to understand it.

要經歷好幾代人的時間才能理解這種變化

And let me show you my own sort of family history --

下面把我的家族史展示給大家看一下

we made these graphs here.

（這張圖代表今天的世界）

And this is the same thing, money down there, and health, you know?

Y軸代表健康水平，X軸是收入

And this is my family.

（這根紅線）代表了我的家族

This is Sweden, 1830, when my great-great-grandma was born.

這裡是1830年的瑞典，我的曾曾祖母出生於這一年

Sweden was like Sierra Leone today.

1830年的瑞典和今天的塞拉利昂一樣

And this is when great-grandma was born, 1863.

我的曾祖母生於1863年

And Sweden was like Mozambique.

1863年的瑞典和今天的莫桑比克一樣

And this is when my grandma was born, 1891.

我的祖母生於1891年

She took care of me as a child,

是她看著我長大的

so I'm not talking about statistic now --

現在我給大家講述的不是統計數據

now it's oral history in my family.

而是我本人的家族歷史

That's when I believe statistics,

我之所以相信這些統計數據

when it's grandma-verified statistics.

是因為我的祖母證實了這些數據的真實性

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I think it's the best way of verifying historical statistics.

我認為祖母最適合於驗證數據真實性

Sweden was like Ghana.

1891年的瑞典和今天的嘎納一樣

It's interesting to see the enormous diversity

可見在撒哈拉以南非洲地區

within sub-Saharan Africa.

國家間的差異非常巨大

I told you last year, I'll tell you again,

（我們再來回顧一下去年的內容）

my mother was born in Egypt, and I -- who am I?

我母親出生於（今天的）埃及

I'm the Mexican in the family.

我是家裡的墨西哥人

And my daughter, she was born in Chile,

我女兒出生於（今天的）智利

and the grand-daughter was born in Singapore,

我的孫女則出生在（今天的）新加坡

now the healthiest country on this Earth.

新加坡是目前世界上最健康的國家

It bypassed Sweden about two to three years ago,

其兒童健康水平在2，3年前

with better child survival.

超過了瑞典

But they're very small, you know?

但新加坡是個小地方

They're so close to the hospital we can never

人們住的地方和醫院很近

beat them out in these forests.

把他們搬到瑞典的森林地區再比比看

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But homage to Singapore.

但還是應該向新加坡致敬

Singapore is the best one.

他們是最健康的國家之一

Now this looks also like a very good story.

以上這些看起來很不錯

But it's not really that easy, that it's all a good story.

但這些好的現像不能代表全部

Because I have to show you one of the other facilities.

現在我們調整一下設置

We can also make the color here represent the variable --

把球的顏色重新設置一下，讓顏色表示

and what am I choosing here?

把球的顏色重新設置一下，讓顏色表示

Carbon-dioxide emission, metric ton per capita.

CO2人均排放量（公噸）

This is 1962, and United States was emitting 16 tons per person.

1962年，美國的人均CO2排放量為16噸

And China was emitting 0.6,

當時的中國人均排放0.6噸

and India was emitting 0.32 tons per capita.

印度為0.3噸

And what happens when we moved on?

後來呢

Well, you see the nice story of getting richer

各國的經濟和健康均得到了發展

and getting healthier --

各國的經濟和健康均得到了發展

everyone did it at the cost of emission of carbon dioxide.

同時所有國家的人均CO2排放量都增加了

There is no one who has done it so far.

沒有哪個國家不是如此

And we don't have all the updated data

手頭上我們沒有更近的數據

any longer, because this is really hot data today.

因為CO2的數據現在很炙手可熱

And there we are, 2001.

最新的數據只有2001年的

And in the discussion I attended with global leaders, you know,

上次我參加了一個世界領導人的會議

many say now the problem is that the emerging economies,

很多人在埋怨新興國家

they are getting out too much carbon dioxide.

說他們排放了太多CO2

The Minister of the Environment of India said,

印度環境部的部長說

"Well, you were the one who caused the problem."

“問題出在你們那裡

The OECD countries -- the high-income countries --

經合組織成員國，高收入國家

they were the ones who caused the climate change.

是你們導致了氣候的改變

"But we forgive you, because you didn't know it.

但我們原諒你們，因為你們以前並不知情

But from now on, we count per capita.

從現在起我們算人均CO2排放量

From now on we count per capita.

從現在起我們算人均CO2排放量

And everyone is responsible for the per capita emission."

每個國家都應該對自己的人均CO2排放量負責”

This really shows you, we have not seen good economic

這裡我們清楚地看到，每個國家的

and health progress anywhere in the world

經濟發展和健康的改善

without destroying the climate.

都是以破壞環境為代價的

And this is really what has to be changed.

這亟需改變

I've been criticized for showing you a too positive image of the world,

我給大家展示過於樂觀的發展前景，已經招來不少批評

but I don't think it's like this.

儘管我不太認同

The world is quite a messy place.

這是一個亂糟糟的世界

This we can call Dollar Street.

現在大家所看到的是“美元街”

Everyone lives on this street here.

所有人都住在這條街上

What they earn here -- what number they live on --

上面的數字

is how much they earn per day.

代表居民每天的收入

This family earns about one dollar per day.

這家人每天收入1美元

We drive up the street here,

我們駕車往前走

we find a family here which earns about two to three dollars a day.

這家人每天收入2-3美元

And we drive away here -- we find the first garden in the street,

繼續往前走，看到街上第一個帶花園的房子

and they earn 10 to 50 dollars a day.

他們家每天收入10-50美元

And how do they live?

房子裡面是什麼樣子的呢

If we look at the bed here, we can see

先看看臥室

that they sleep on a rug on the floor.

（最窮的一家）睡在地板上

This is what poverty line is --

這就是貧困線以下的生活

80 percent of the family income is just to cover the energy needs,

80%的收入用於基本生活所需的能量和食物

the food for the day.

80%的收入用於基本生活所需的能量和食物

This is two to five dollars. You have a bed.

這家人每天收入2-5美元，有床可以睡了

And here it's a much nicer bedroom, you can see.

（帶花園的這一家）臥室要好得多

I lectured on this for Ikea, and they wanted to see

我給"宜家"僱員們作報告的時候

the sofa immediately here.

他們要求看看沙發

(Laughter)