happened because irresponsible borrowers couldn't afford to pay back their loans.

發生的原因是不負責任的借款人無力償還貸款。

This is true, but it was also part of a much deeper problem.

這是事實，但這也是更深層次問題的一部分。

The issue is that our economic system is based on the need for continuous

問題是，我們的經濟體系是建立在需要不斷的

perpetual growth

永續發展

It's highly likely that we're already in the beginnings of something much worse than a depression,

很有可能我們'已經處於比蕭條更糟糕的事情的開始。

even if bankers and governments won't admit it yet.

即使銀行家和政府還不會承認。

Fortunately, we don't need to hear it from them. we can tell that something is going on

幸運的是，我們不需要從他們那裡聽到它.我們可以知道，有些事情正在發生。

we have the internet and we can share information amongst ourselves.

我們有互聯網，我們可以共享資訊。

And thankfully, if we try hard enough, we could just end up with something much much better than what we have now.

而值得慶幸的是，如果我們足夠努力，我們最終可能會得到比現在更好的東西。

I'm no expert, however I am someone who's done several years of reading

我'不是專家，然而我是一個'做了幾年閱讀的人。

on these topics

在這些問題上

and I really want everyone else to know what's going on, and understand the risks and the opportunities. It's only fair.

和我真的希望其他人知道什麼'是怎麼回事，並瞭解風險和機會。它'才是公平的。

So let's look at how our banking system really works.

所以，讓我們來看看我們的銀行系統到底是如何運作的。

It's commonly believed that banks lend out money that they already have

一般認為，銀行把已經有的錢借出去了。

from invested savings

存款

That would've encouraged a fairly stable system of banking.

這將鼓勵一個相當穩定的銀行系統。

Instead, we have what's called a fractional reserve banking system.

相反，我們有什麼'的所謂的部分準備金銀行系統。

This means that banks can loan out almost all the money that gets deposited with them.

這意味著，銀行幾乎可以把存到銀行的錢全部貸出去。

for example

比如

when you put $100 in one bank

當你把100美元存入一個銀行

they lend $90 of it to someone else

他們把其中的90元借給了別人。

who then puts that $90 in their bank.

誰就會把這90美元存入銀行。

Now there's $190 where there used to be $100

現在有190美元，以前有100美元的地方。

That $90 lent out will also be deposited and $81 lent again.

那借出去的90元也會存入銀行，再借出81元。

In this way, money ends up being multiplied between ten and a hundred times.

這樣一來，錢最後就會被乘以十倍到百倍之間。

sounds crazy right?

聽起來很瘋狂吧？

Less than 1% of the money in the economy is actual notes and coins

經濟中只有不到1%的貨幣是實際的紙幣和硬幣。

the rest are just numbers on computers, created as debt.

其餘的只是電腦上的數字，作為債務產生。

This system rapidly increases the amount of money in the economy,

這種制度迅速增加了經濟中的貨幣量。

which fuels economic growth,

助推經濟增長。

allowing most of us the ability to pay back our debts with interest.

讓我們大多數人有能力連本帶利償還債務。

But only so long as the economy keeps on growing.

但只有在經濟持續增長的情況下。

One reason it won't is that ever since the Industrial Revolution,

不會的一個原因是，自從工業革命以來。

economic growth has been largely dependent on cheap fossil fuel supplies, which are now dwindling.

經濟增長在很大程度上依賴於廉價的化石燃料供應，而現在化石燃料供應正在減少。

When we first started drilling for oil, it was easy to find.

我們剛開始鑽探石油的時候，很容易找到。

it just spurted up out of the ground

橫空出世

We've only been drilling intensively for about 150 years

我們深入鑽探大約150年了。

and oil is no longer easy to find.

而石油已經不容易找到了。

Now, we drill down crazy deep through earth and ocean

現在，我們瘋狂地鑽進地球和海洋深處。

using expensive and risky technology

使用昂貴而危險的技術

It used to cost one barrel of oil to get about 100 barrels of oil out of the ground.

過去一桶油的成本是100桶左右的石油出地面。

These days one barrel only gets us 10 barrels back, and declining.

如今一桶只能換回10桶，而且還在不斷下降。

And that means it's not cheap anymore.

而這意味著它'不便宜了。

The truth is, we're living on a planet that has finite resources.

事實是，我們生活在一個資源有限的星球上。

We've always opted to extract the easiest resources first, while using more and more each year.

我們一直選擇先提取最簡單的資源，同時每年使用的資源越來越多。

Eventually the use of these finite resources has to peak and then decline

這些有限資源的使用最終要達到頂峰，然後再下降

as their extraction gets harder and more expensive.

因為它們的開採越來越難，越來越昂貴。

And according to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas,

而據油氣峰值研究協會。

the global peak happened in 2008

全球高峰期發生在2008年

Now, this doesn't mean we're running out of oil, it just means we're running out of cheap oil.

現在，這並不意味著我們'正在耗盡石油，這只是意味著我們'正在耗盡廉價的石油。

When I first heard about this I thought

當我第一次聽到這個消息時，我想

at least oil is mainly just used to drive around

至少油主要是用來開車的。

But no

但是沒有

beyond personal transportation, there's transportation of the food supply

除了個人運輸，還有食品供應的運輸。

and all our other consumer goods

和所有其他消費品

we run all our farm machinery on oil and make our pesticides out of oil

我們所有的農機都是用油來運轉的，我們的殺蟲劑也是用油來做的。

Oil is also a critical ingredient in plastics, pharmaceuticals, asphalt,

石油也是塑膠、醫藥、瀝青的重要原料。

paints, tyres and even toothpaste.

塗料、輪胎甚至牙膏。

In fact, oil is involved in pretty much all of the goods that we use in our everyday life.

事實上，我們日常生活中幾乎所有的商品都涉及到石油。

Plus it's not only oil that's peaked.

另外它'不僅是石油的峰值。

Natural gas, high grade uranium, many rare earth minerals, phosphorus,

天然氣、高品位鈾、多種稀土礦產、磷。

and many other important resources have peaked as well

和許多其他重要資源也達到了頂峰。

We're trying to grow beyond the planet's resource limits.

我們'正在努力成長，超越地球的資源極限。

So not only have we damaged the environment so much that we now get hit

所以，我們不僅破壞了環境，以至於現在我們受到了衝擊

more frequently by more intense natural disasters,

更加頻繁地遭受更強烈的自然災害。

we've also used up most of the non-renewable resources that have been

我們也已經用完了大部分不可再生資源，這已經是我們的目標。

allowing us to live in this high-tech world.

讓我們能夠生活在這個高科技的世界裡。

It's as if we're burning the walls of our house to keep ourselves warm.

這就好像我們'在燒房子的牆壁來保持自己的溫暖。

It can't continue forever.

它不能永遠持續下去。

Anyway, quite apart from peak oil, we seem to be due for a global depression

總之，除了石油峰值之外，我們似乎還將迎來一場全球大蕭條。

just because of the debt buildup

只因債臺高築

If you add up all the debts in the world it's roughly

如果你把世界上所有的債務加起來，大概是這樣的

150 trillion dollars

150萬億美元

You'd think it has to balance out somehow, that surely some countries are lending to other countries.

你'會認為它必須以某種方式平衡，肯定有些國家在向其他國家貸款。

But no, it's money everyone owes to the banks and their investors.

但不，這是大家欠銀行和他們的投資者的錢。

The problem is, this is the world,

問題是，這就是世界。

we're not about to get bailed out by aliens.

我們不會被外星人救助的。

Up until now the way banks have been lending more and more money has

直到現在，銀行放貸的方式越來越多。

pushed up prices of assets like houses and stocks.

推高了房子和股票等資產的價格。

This was possible because in a growing economy, debts could be paid back.

之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為在經濟不斷髮展的情況下，債務是可以償還的。

But when debts finally build to an unmanageable point,

但當債務終於積累到不可收拾的地步。

as they did before the great depression,

如同他們在大蕭條前一樣。

asset prices can and do go down.

資產價格可以而且確實會下跌。

Because banks are overextended, they lend less, and because individuals,

因為銀行過度擴張，所以放貸少，因為個人。

businesses and countries are also overextended,

企業和國家也被過度擴張。

defaults become more frequent.

違約行為變得更加頻繁。

Both defaults and reduced lending decrease the amount of money

違約和減少貸款都會減少資金量

in the economy,

在經濟。

which means less money chasing the same goods and assets.

這意味著更少的錢追逐同樣的商品和資產。

This leads to a fall in asset prices, called deflation and means that house prices will eventually

這導致資產價格下跌，稱為通貨緊縮，意味著房價最終將

go back down to what's reasonable and affordable.

回落到什麼'的合理和實惠。

So if you have a mortgage,

所以如果你有抵押貸款。

beware that you could end up with more debt than your house is worth.

小心，你最終可能會欠下比房子更多的債務。

This deflationary spiral also means high unemployment,

這種通貨緊縮的螺旋式上升也意味著高失業率。

high prices for necessities and hard times.

必需品價格高，困難時期。

That's what happened during the great depression, and it's what's going on now.

這'就是大蕭條期間發生的事情，也是'現在正在發生的事情。

Only this time round the depression will be even more severe

只是這一次的蕭條會更嚴重而已

because we've never lived in such a globalised world before,

因為我們從來沒有生活在這樣一個全球化的世界裡。

and it will be a permanent decline because of peak oil.

並且會因為石油峰值而永久下降。

The global financial crisis was only the beginning.

全球金融危機只是一個開始。

Since then much of the world's middle class have been struggling just to keep up with their food,

從那時起，世界上許多'的中產階級一直在掙扎，只是為了維持他們的食物。

fuel, bills and mortgage or rent payments

油費、賬單和房貸或租金

and things can only get worse.

而事情只會變得更糟。

So what can we do?

那我們能做什麼呢？

In a deflationary scenario, the money from bailouts and money printing

在通貨緊縮的情況下，救市的錢和印鈔的錢

mostly goes straight into paying down debts

大部分直接用於償還債務

which is why our economies have only barely recovered since 2008

這就是為什麼我們的經濟從2008年開始才勉強復甦的原因

Mostly governments, big business and the media are avoiding these issues

大多數政府、大企業和媒體都在迴避這些問題。

and trying to keep the status quo alive a little bit longer.

並試圖讓現狀多活一會兒。

Which will only end up making the crunch harder in the long run.

這從長遠來看，最終只會讓緊縮的工作變得更加困難。

As things get worse, governments are likely

隨著情況的惡化，政府很可能

to prioritize saving themselves,

來優先拯救自己。

for example by raising taxes and cutting spending

例如，通過增加稅收和削減開支

rather than helping us out.

而不是幫助我們。

There isn't actually any positive strategy they could use to save us

其實沒有'他們可以用任何積極的策略來拯救我們。

that's also in keeping with their own interests and systems,

那也是符合他們自己的利益和制度的。

otherwise they would have done it by now.

否則他們現在就會這麼做。

This complex system has grown to its limit, and it's now in decline,

這個複雜的系統已經發展到了極限，它現在正在衰退。

slowly dismantling itself, piece by piece,

慢慢的拆解自己，一塊一塊的。

delayed only slightly along the way by government intervention.

在政府的干預下，只是稍稍拖延了時間。

Fortunately, I've learnt, it's going to be somewhat ok that our systems just dismantle themselves,

幸運的是，我'已經學會了，我們的系統就這樣自己拆掉了，這將是有些OK的。

because there are millions of people around the world busy at work

因為全世界有千千萬萬的人在忙於工作。

on much better systems we can replace them with

在更好的系統上，我們可以用

The modern industrial world hasn't really given us happiness.

現代工業世界並沒有真正給我們帶來幸福。

It hasn't even eliminated poverty

它甚至沒有消除貧困。

Most of us have been working way too hard, and for what?

我們大多數人都太辛苦了，為了什麼？

To finally exhaust the planet and suffer for it?

最後耗盡地球的力量，為之受苦？

Why not try having energy security through lower energy use

為什麼不嘗試通過降低能源使用量來實現能源安全呢？

feeling proud of feeding ourselves and making the things we need,

為養活自己和製造自己需要的東西而感到自豪。

switching our priorities from independence to interdependence.

將我們的優先事項從獨立轉向相互依存；

These are changes we can make regardless of whether our governments want to help or not.

這些都是我們可以做出的改變，不管我們的政府是否願意幫助。

There are other alternatives beyond capitalism,

除了資本主義之外，還有其他的選擇。

and I'm not talking about communism either.

而我'也不是在說共產主義。

Both presume an industrial system, which is no longer feasible or desirable.

兩者都預設了一個工業體系，而這個體系已經不可行，也不可取。

In a world with less resources and less money, year after year,

在這個資源少、錢少的世界裡，年復一年。

if we do nothing we'll end up with terrible living conditions, constant conflict

如果我們什麼都不做，我們將最終與可怕的生活條件，不斷的衝突。

and potentially a new wave of fascism

和潛在的法西斯主義新浪潮

and no one wants that.

沒有人想這樣。

The positive option is that we just learn to get along with each other and look after the earth again.

積極的選擇是，我們只要學會彼此相處，重新照顧地球就可以了。

We can work together to build new infrastructures that can support meaningful work and dignified lives.

我們可以共同努力，建立新的基礎設施，支持有意義的工作和有尊嚴的生活。

We can choose to work much shorter hours, eat much healthier food,

我們可以選擇更短的工作時間，吃更健康的食物。

growing most of it ourselves

自生自滅

and spend a lot more of our time with our families and friends.

並花更多的時間與家人和朋友在一起。

I'm not talking about going back to the stone age.

我'不是說要回到石器時代。

People have been working on

人們一直在努力

cool new ways to live without an industrial economy

沒有工業經濟的酷炫新生活方式

for well over 40 years now.

40多年了。

for example

比如

permaculture is a system of doing much more with much less energy,

養生是一種用更少的能源做更多的事情的系統。

and in particular intensively and organically growing food.

特別是集約化、有機化種植糧食。

Appropriate technologies have been developed to meet human needs

已經開發了適當的技術來滿足人類的需求。

like heating and cooling

冷暖自如

in highly energy efficient ways.

以高效節能的方式。

Local currencies that are more equitable and stable are being designed and tested around the world.

世界各地都在設計和測試更加公平和穩定的當地貨幣。

Transition Town groups are building community and leading preparatory efforts to relocalise.

過渡鎮各小組正在建設社區，並牽頭做好重新安置的準備工作。

Distributed manufacturing is about producing what we need, close to home

分佈式製造就是就近生產我們所需要的東西。

with nifty technologies like 3d printers.

與3D打印機等靈巧的技術。

There are even groups working on peer to peer versions of the internet

甚至有團體在研究點對點版本的互聯網。

that we can get up quickly if the internet happens to go down.

以便我們在網絡發生故障時能迅速恢復。

I just wanted to point out this small set of examples

我只想指出這一組小例子。

because every time I worry about some particular challenge,

因為每次我都會擔心一些特殊的挑戰。

I look it up and there's a group of people who've set themselves to figuring out

我查了一下，有一群人，他們已經把自己設定為弄清了

a positive and feasible way through it.

一個積極可行的方法來解決這個問題。

Working together/ we can create a better world,

我們一起努力，就能創造一個更美好的世界。

here and now.

此時此刻。

Really, my hope is that as the system continues to fall apart,

真的，我的希望是，隨著制度的不斷崩潰。

those of us who find out what's going on,

我們這些人誰發現了什麼'是怎麼回事。

prepare ourselves and start whatever local projects and enterprises

籌備和啟動任何地方項目和企業

to prepare our communities that we can.

為我們的社區做好準備，我們可以。

So that as conditions worsen, we can build community

是以，當情況惡化時，我們可以建立社區。

and share ways of growing food and simple sustainable technologies and plenty more

並分享糧食種植方法和簡單的可持續發展技術以及更多的內容。

that people will be very interested in during a time of great financial hardship.

在經濟困難時期，人們會非常感興趣。

Major economic downturns throughout history have not been happy times,

歷史上重大的經濟衰退都不是幸福的時刻。

and this one is set to be bigger than ever before.

而這一次的規模將比以往任何時候都要大。

There are real possibilities of austerity leading to exploitation,

緊縮政策確實有可能導致剝削。

a rise of fascism, and world war three.

法西斯主義的興起，和第三次世界大戰。

The fact that this time round some of us are aware of what's going on

事實上，這一次我們中的一些人意識到了什麼'是怎麼回事。

and are preparing for the crash

並正在準備崩潰

as well as the degree of free communication the internet affords us

以及互聯網給我們提供的自由交流的程度。

are the main things we have going for us.

是我們的主要事情。

We all have basic human needs for security and safety,

我們每個人都有基本的安全和保障需求。

and if we're lucky for happiness and fulfillment as well.

和如果我們'幸運的幸福和滿足以及。

This is happening to all of us,

這發生在我們所有人身上。

and we all have the ability to make choices as to how we handle the future.

我們都有能力選擇如何處理未來。

So I'm asking you, please, even if this seems outside the realm of possibility,

所以，我'請你，即使這似乎不在可能性範圍內。

at least do some research, check it out for yourself.

至少要做一些調查，自己去看看。

You can decide what kind of future you want and start taking steps to make it happen.

你可以決定你想要什麼樣的未來，並開始採取措施來實現它。

The more of us who start now, the more likely this transition is to be peaceful and just,

我們現在開始的人越多，這一過渡就越有可能是和平和公正的。

and perhaps even exciting and promising.

甚至可能是令人興奮和有前途的。

In the meantime,

同時。

if you appreciate what you've seen and heard here,

如果你欣賞你在這裡的所見所聞。

please send this animation on to your family and friends.

請把這個動畫發給你的家人和朋友。

The more people who know about this, the better off we will all be.

知道這件事的人越多，我們的生活就越好。