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  • Economists have been exploring people's behavior for hundreds of years:

    經濟學家數百年來不停地 探索人們的行為:

  • how we make decisions,

    我們怎樣做決定、

  • how we act individually and in groups,

    我們作為個人與群體 如何行動、

  • how we exchange value.

    我們怎樣進行價值交換。

  • They've studied the institutions that facilitate our trade,

    他們研究這些促進我們交易的制度,

  • like legal systems,

    例如法律系統、

  • corporations,

    企業、

  • marketplaces.

    市場。

  • But there is a new, technological institution

    但現在,有一種全新的科技機制,

  • that will fundamentally change how we exchange value,

    即將徹底顛覆我們 價值交換的進行方式,

  • and it's called the blockchain.

    它叫做「區塊鏈」。

  • Now, that's a pretty bold statement,

    這是個相當大膽的預測,

  • but if you take nothing else away from this talk,

    如果你在這場演講中, 聽不懂我在說什麼,

  • I actually want you to remember

    我仍舊希望各位記得:

  • that while blockchain technology is relatively new,

    「區塊鏈」的技術雖然相對新穎,

  • it's also a continuation of a very human story,

    但它延續了一段人類故事的發展。

  • and the story is this.

    故事是這樣的...

  • As humans, we find ways

    作為人類,

  • to lower uncertainty about one another

    我們一直在尋找各種 降低彼此不確定性的方法,

  • so that we can exchange value.

    以方便價值交換。

  • Now, one of the first people to really explore the idea

    真正在經濟學裏

  • of institutions as a tool in economics

    研究如何將制度當成工具,

  • to lower our uncertainties about one another

    以降低我們彼此間不確定性

  • and be able to do trade

    而能進行交易的學者,

  • was the Nobel economist Douglass North.

    有位是諾貝爾經濟學獎得主 道格拉斯.諾斯。

  • He passed away at the end of 2015,

    他在2015年底去世,

  • but North pioneered what's called "new institutional economics."

    他開創了「新制度經濟學」。

  • And what he meant by institutions were really just formal rules

    他所說的制度,只是一些正式的規則,

  • like a constitution,

    比如說憲法,

  • and informal constraints, like bribery.

    以及非正式的潛規則,例如賄賂。

  • These institutions are really the grease

    這些制度是帶動我們

  • that allow our economic wheels to function,

    經濟體系運轉的潤滑油,

  • and we can see this play out over the course of human history.

    這些制度在我們人類歷史中 扮演了重要的角色。

  • If we think back to when we were hunter-gatherer economies,

    如果我們回想一下, 當我們還處於狩獵採集的經濟時代時,

  • we really just traded within our village structure.

    我們只會在自己的村落裏做交易,

  • We had some informal constraints in place,

    我們在交易時 雖有一些非正式的潛規則,

  • but we enforced all of our trade with violence

    但我們會使用暴力

  • or social repercussions.

    或社會公評來強制這些交易的進行。

  • As our societies grew more complex

    當我們的社會越來越多元,

  • and our trade routes grew more distant,

    貿易越來越全球化,

  • we built up more formal institutions,

    我們建立了更多的正式制度,

  • institutions like banks for currency,

    比如負責貨幣流通的銀行、

  • governments, corporations.

    政府,企業。

  • These institutions helped us manage our trade

    這些制度能在社會 不確定性和複雜度升高、

  • as the uncertainty and the complexity grew,

    個人掌控力下降的情況下,

  • and our personal control was much lower.

    幫助我們管理交易的進行。

  • Eventually with the internet, we put these same institutions online.

    之後隨著網路的發展, 我們在網路上也建立了同樣的制度。

  • We built platform marketplaces like Amazon, eBay, Alibaba,

    我們建立了線上交易平台, 比如亞馬遜、eBay、阿里巴巴,

  • just faster institutions that act as middlemen

    這些運作更快速的制度, 扮演了中間人的角色,

  • to facilitate human economic activity.

    促進了人類的經濟活動。

  • As Douglass North saw it,

    正如道格拉斯.諾斯所觀察到的,

  • institutions are a tool to lower uncertainty

    制度是用來降低不確定性的工具,

  • so that we can connect and exchange all kinds of value in society.

    讓我們可以在社會中 建立起關係並交換各種有價值的東西。

  • And I believe we are now entering

    我認為,我們現在正進入

  • a further and radical evolution

    一種更深遠徹底的演變,

  • of how we interact and trade,

    人們將改變如何互動及交易。

  • because for the first time, we can lower uncertainty

    因為,這是我們第一次 可以自主降低這些不確定性,

  • not just with political and economic institutions,

    不用透過政策或金融制度,

  • like our banks, our corporations, our governments,

    例如銀行、企業和政府的協助 就能完成交易,

  • but we can do it with technology alone.

    我們自己運用科技即可完成。

  • So what is the blockchain?

    所以區塊鏈是什麼?

  • Blockchain technology is a decentralized database

    區塊鏈技術是一種分散式資料庫,

  • that stores a registry of assets and transactions

    它是透過對等式網絡

  • across a peer-to-peer network.

    存放使用者的資產及交易紀錄。

  • It's basically a public registry

    基本上,這是一個公開的記帳系統,

  • of who owns what and who transacts what.

    上面記載了誰持有什麼,誰交易過什麼。

  • The transactions are secured through cryptography,

    交易紀錄是透過加密保護的,

  • and over time, that transaction history gets locked in blocks of data

    時間一過,歷史交易紀錄 就會被封存在資料區塊裡,

  • that are then cryptographically linked together and secured.

    資料區塊間會透過加密方式 進行連結及保護。

  • This creates an immutable, unforgeable record

    如此,所有交易就會在這個網路下

  • of all of the transactions across this network.

    留下一個無法更改、編造的紀錄。

  • This record is replicated on every computer that uses the network.

    這些交易記錄會在這個網絡上的 每台電腦進行備份。

  • It's not an app.

    區塊鏈不是一個應用程式,

  • It's not a company.

    也不是一家公司。

  • I think it's closest in description to something like Wikipedia.

    我覺得最接近的描述 應該像是維基百科。

  • We can see everything on Wikipedia.

    我們在維基百科上能看到每樣東西。

  • It's a composite view that's constantly changing and being updated.

    其呈現的複合面貌不斷在變動及更新中。

  • We can also track those changes over time on Wikipedia,

    隨著時間的推移,我們可以在 維基百科上追蹤這些變化,

  • and we can create our own wikis,

    我們也可以創建自己的維基,

  • because at their core, they're just a data infrastructure.

    因為其核心只是個資料基礎架構。

  • On Wikipedia, it's an open platform that stores words and images

    在維基百科上,我們用此開放平台 存放文字和圖片,

  • and the changes to that data over time.

    以及隨時間添加的資料更動。

  • On the blockchain,

    在區塊鏈上,

  • you can think of it as an open infrastructure

    我們也可將其視為一開放基礎架構,

  • that stores many kinds of assets.

    上面存放著各式各樣的資產。

  • It stores the history of custodianship,

    它可儲存資產履歷,包含管理者、

  • ownership and location

    擁有者、位置等變動,

  • for assets like the digital currency Bitcoin,

    供比特幣等數位貨幣之用,

  • other digital assets

    或者其它數位資產,

  • like a title of ownership of IP.

    像是智財權擁有者名稱。

  • It could be a certificate, a contract,

    它也可以是一個憑證、一份合約、

  • real world objects,

    真實世界的東西、

  • even personal identifiable information.

    甚至是個人識別資料。

  • There are of course other technical details to the blockchain,

    當然區塊鏈還有其他技術細節,

  • but at its core, that's how it works.

    但其核心是這樣運作的。

  • It's this public registry that stores transactions in a network

    這個開放式記帳系統, 存放了該網路的所有交易紀錄,

  • and is replicated so that it's very secure and hard to tamper with.

    而且所有紀錄都備份到每台電腦, 所以很安全、很難被竄改。

  • Which brings me to my point

    這引申出我要說的重點:

  • of how blockchains lower uncertainty

    區塊鏈可降低不確定性,

  • and how they therefore promise to transform our economic systems

    以及因此將徹底地

  • in radical ways.

    改變我們的經濟體系。

  • So uncertainty is kind of a big term

    「不確定性」是經濟學上

  • in economics,

    一個相當重要的專業詞彙,

  • but I want to go through three forms of it

    但我想簡單敘述一下,

  • that we face in almost all of our everyday transactions,

    區塊鏈在我們每天的交易中

  • where blockchains can play a role.

    所扮演的三個角色。

  • We face uncertainties like not knowing who we're dealing with,

    我們面對的不確定性,比如說 我們不知道我們在跟誰交易、

  • not having visibility into a transaction

    交易過程中沒有透明性、

  • and not having recourse if things go wrong.

    如果出問題無處補救。

  • So let's take the first example, not knowing who we're dealing with.

    那麽我們來先談談第一個, 不知道跟誰交易。

  • Say I want to buy a used smartphone on eBay.

    比如說我想在 eBay 上買一個 二手的智慧型手機。

  • The first thing I'm going to do is look up who I'm buying from.

    我要做的第一件事就是 確認我是要跟誰買,

  • Are they a power user?

    他們是能力很強的用戶嗎?

  • Do they have great reviews and ratings, or do they have no profile at all?

    別人對其評語及給分好嗎? 還是說他們根本沒有基本資料可查?

  • Reviews, ratings, checkmarks:

    評語、給分、查核標誌:

  • these are the attestations about our identities

    這些是我們今天

  • that we cobble together today

    拼湊對方身份的證據,

  • and use to lower uncertainty about who we're dealing with.

    這些資訊可以用來降低 對方身份的不確定性。

  • But the problem is they're very fragmented.

    但問題是這些訊息非常零碎。

  • Think about how many profiles you have.

    想想你個人就有多少份基本資料。

  • Blockchains allow for us to create an open, global platform

    區塊鏈可以讓我們 建立一個開放式的全球平台,

  • on which to store any attestation about any individual

    在其上面,可以存放

  • from any source.

    來自任何來源的個人資訊證明。

  • This allows us to create a user-controlled

    因此,我們可以建立出一種用戶管控下

  • portable identity.

    可攜帶式的身份證明。

  • More than a profile,

    這不僅是一份普通的基本資料,

  • it means you can selectively reveal

    因為你可以選擇性地揭露

  • the different attributes about you

    你自己的不同屬性,

  • that help facilitate trade or interaction,

    以利交易進行或者互動。

  • for instance that a government issued you an ID,

    例如,想證明有政府發給的身份證,

  • or that you're over 21,

    或者你年滿 21 歲,

  • by revealing the cryptographic proof

    你只要揭示你的加密憑證即可,

  • that these details exist and are signed off on.

    裏面證明這些個人細節存在,且你簽章過。

  • Having this kind of portable identity

    有了這種介於真實與數位世界之間的

  • around the physical world and the digital world

    便利身份證明,

  • means we can do all kinds of human trade

    我們就可以用這種全新的方式

  • in a totally new way.

    來做任何交易。

  • So I've talked about how blockchains could lower uncertainty

    我已經闡述完區塊鏈可以幫助我們

  • in who we're dealing with.

    在交易上減少不確定性。

  • The second uncertainty that we often face

    接下來,第二個我們經常遇到的不確定性,

  • is just not having transparency into our interactions.

    就是互動不夠透明。

  • Say you're going to send me that smartphone by mail.

    比如說,你要郵寄智慧型手機給我,

  • I want some degree of transparency.

    但我想要有一定程度的透明度。

  • I want to know that the product I bought is the same one that arrives in the mail

    我想知道我買的東西跟 寄到郵箱裏的是否同一個東西,

  • and that there's some record for how it got to me.

    以及這個東西是如何 送到我手上的相關記錄。

  • This is true not just for electronics like smartphones,

    不只寄送智慧型手機等電子產品如此,

  • but for many kinds of goods and data,

    寄送任何貨物或資料也適用,

  • things like medicine, luxury goods,

    像是藥物、奢侈品,

  • any kind of data or product that we don't want tampered with.

    任何我們不想被 掉包的資料或產品都可以。

  • The problem in many companies,

    很多公司都會有這樣的問題,

  • especially those that produce something complicated like a smartphone,

    特別像是生產智慧型手機 這樣複雜東西的公司,

  • is they're managing all of these different vendors

    他們在管理不同供應商時,

  • across a horizontal supply chain.

    橫跨整個水平供應鏈 經常出現類似的問題。

  • All of these people that go into making a product,

    投入一項產品製造的所有相關人等,

  • they don't have the same database.

    他們沒有同一份資料庫。

  • They don't use the same infrastructure,

    他們不用同一套基礎資料架構,

  • and so it becomes really hard to see transparently a product evolve over time.

    所以過程中很難透明看到 一項產品如何隨時間演化。

  • Using the blockchain, we can create

    運用區塊鏈,我們可以在 無信任的個體之間,

  • a shared reality across nontrusting entities.

    創造出一個共享的真相。

  • By this I mean

    我的意思是,

  • all of these nodes in the network do not need to know each other

    這個網路上的每個節點, 彼此間都不需要互相認識

  • or trust each other,

    或信任對方,

  • because they each have the ability

    因為他們彼此都有能力

  • to monitor and validate the chain for themselves.

    可以去監控、確認他們自己的供應鏈。

  • Think back to Wikipedia.

    再回頭看看維基,

  • It's a shared database,

    它是個共享的資料庫,

  • and even though it has multiple readers

    雖然它同時有許多讀者

  • and multiple writers at the same time,

    及許多作者,

  • it has one single truth.

    但真相只有一個。

  • So we can create that using blockchains.

    所以我們可以運用區塊鏈 來創造類似的環境。

  • We can create a decentralized database that has the same efficiency of a monopoly

    我們可以在不用中心化管理授權的情況下,

  • without actually creating that central authority.

    創造一個去中心化資料庫, 其效能和集中壟斷相同。

  • So all of these vendors, all sorts of companies,

    因此,所有廠商、公司 在彼此不信任的狀況下,

  • can interact using the same database without trusting one another.

    能運用相同的資料庫做互動,

  • It means for consumers, we can have a lot more transparency.

    對消費者而言,我們就有更多的 產品資訊透明度。

  • As a real-world object travels along,

    當真實世界的東西在運送時,

  • we can see its digital certificate or token move on the blockchain,

    我們就可以在區塊鏈上 看到其數位憑證或符號作移動變化,

  • adding value as it goes.

    隨其變動添加記錄值。

  • This is a whole new world in terms of our visibility.

    就能見度而言,這是個全新的境界。

  • So I've talked about how blockchains can lower our uncertainties about identity

    所以,我已經談完區塊鏈 可以如何降低身份的不確定性,

  • and how they change what we mean about transparency

    以及如何改變供應鏈中

  • in long distances and complex trades, like in a supply chain.

    遠距離及複雜交易的透明度。

  • The last uncertainty that we often face

    最後一個不確定性就是我們經常面臨,

  • is one of the most open-ended, and it's reneging.

    卻最難處理的違約問題。

  • What if you don't send me the smartphone?

    你要是沒把手機寄給我,怎麼辦?

  • Can I get my money back?

    我能拿回我的錢嗎?

  • Blockchains allow us to write code,

    區塊鏈可以讓我們在上面編碼、

  • binding contracts,

    綁定合約、

  • between individuals

    來約束彼此,

  • and then guarantee that those contracts will bear out

    並確保雙方的合約不需要

  • without a third party enforcer.

    第三方的強制執行就能履行。

  • So if we look at the smartphone example, you could think about escrow.

    所以,以智慧型手機當例子, 你可以把交易想成是有信託付款的。

  • You are financing that phone,

    你信託付款購買手機,

  • but you don't need to release the funds

    在你尚未確認所有條件都符合

  • until you can verify that all the conditions have been met.

    並拿到手機前,

  • You got the phone.

    你不須同意把錢匯給對方。

  • I think this is one of the most exciting ways

    我認為這是區塊鏈 在降低不確定性方面

  • that blockchains lower our uncertainties,

    最令人興奮的地方,

  • because it means to some degree

    這意味著,在某種程度上

  • we can collapse institutions and their enforcement.

    我們可以瓦解機構及其強制力需求了,

  • It means a lot of human economic activity

    這也意味著有更多的人類經濟活動

  • can get collateralized and automated,

    可在擔保抵押下自動執行,

  • and push a lot of human intervention to the edges,

    而將一大堆人為干擾因素局限在最外圍,

  • the places where information moves from the real world to the blockchain.

    當資訊從真實世界進入區塊鏈後就不受干擾。

  • I think what would probably floor Douglass North

    我想這項科技的運用

  • about this use of technology

    讓道格拉斯.諾斯感到驚訝的地方,

  • is the fact that the very thing that makes it work,

    應該就是區塊鏈技術真的辦到了,

  • the very thing that keeps the blockchain secure and verified,

    而讓區塊鏈維持安全且易確證的原因

  • is our mutual distrust.

    就是我們彼此的不信任。

  • So rather than all of our uncertainties

    所以,並不須利用原本

  • slowing us down

    讓我們的交易慢下來的

  • and requiring institutions

    那些制度,

  • like banks, our governments, our corporations,

    像是銀行、政府、公司,

  • we can actually harness all of that collective uncertainty

    我們已經可以駕馭這些不確定性,

  • and use it to collaborate and exchange more and faster and more open.

    並運用區塊鏈來促進 更多,更快,更公開的合作及交換。

  • Now, I don't want you to get the impression

    我不是要各位產生錯誤印象,

  • that the blockchain is the solution to everything,

    以為區塊鏈可以解決所有事情。

  • even though the media has said that it's going to end world poverty,

    甚至還有媒體說,區塊鏈可以終結貧窮,

  • it's also going to solve the counterfeit drug problem

    也可以解決假藥的問題,

  • and potentially save the rainforest.

    甚至可能解救雨林。

  • The truth is, this technology is in its infancy,

    事實上,這項技術還在其嬰兒期,

  • and we're going to need to see a lot of experiments take place

    我們還須觀察許多實驗的進行結果,

  • and probably fail

    有些也許失敗,

  • before we truly understand all of the use cases

    這樣才能真正了解其所有適用的

  • for our economy.

    經濟情況。

  • But there are tons of people working on this,

    許多人正努力研究區塊鏈,

  • from financial institutions

    包括金融機構,

  • to technology companies, start-ups and universities.

    科技公司,初創企業,大學等。

  • And one of the reasons is that it's not just an economic evolution.

    其中一個原因是 它不只帶來經濟上的進化,

  • It's also an innovation in computer science.

    它也帶來電腦科學上的創新。

  • Blockchains give us the technological capability

    區塊鏈讓我們擁有技術能力,

  • of creating a record of human exchange,

    可以記錄人類交易、

  • of exchange of currency,

    貨幣交換,

  • of all kinds of digital and physical assets,

    各種數位、實體資產

  • even of our own personal attributes,

    甚至我們的個人屬性

  • in a totally new way.

    以全新方式進行記錄。

  • So in some ways,

    所以,某些方面,

  • they become a technological institution

    區塊鏈變成一種

  • that has a lot of the benefits

    擁有很多好處的科技機制,

  • of the traditional institutions we're used to using in society,

    取代了我們傳統社會上常用的制度,

  • but it does this in a decentralized way.

    但卻是用去中心化的方式達成。

  • It does this by converting a lot of our uncertainties

    它把我們很多的不確定性

  • into certainties.

    轉化成確定性。

  • So I think we need to start preparing ourselves,

    所以我認為我們自己要開始準備了,

  • because we are about to face a world

    因為我們即將面對一個新世界

  • where distributed, autonomous institutions

    其中,分散式、自主式的機制

  • have quite a significant role.

    扮演了相當重要的角色。

  • Thank you.

    感謝各位。