Now, have we seen peak liquidity?

流動性的高點來臨了嗎？

This shows you the amount of liquidity injected by the big four central banks this year

這張圖代表全球四大央行在今年注入的資金流動性

and their plans for the coming years.

以及他們在接下來幾年的計畫

And as you can see, if they hold by their announced plans,

如同你所見，如果他們照著他們宣布的計畫走

2018 is going to be the year in which liquidity actually goes into reverse,

2018 年會是流動性開始反轉的一年

in which central bank balance sheets actually, on-net, begin to decline.

央行淨資產將會在這年開始下降

Now if that happens it's a good sign,

如果這件事發生了那很好

in that that means that the economy will be continuing to grow as everyone hopes,

因為這代表經濟會議如大家預期地繼續成長

but it will be far harder for asset prices to continue to rally.

但那也會使重振中的資產價格受到阻撓

If, however, the central banks lose their nerve, and we continue to see liquidity,

然而，如果這些央行繼續寬鬆，我們就會見到流動性

we haven't seen peak liquidity,

我們還未見到流動性之高點

then that would be much more positive for asset prices.

那會對資產價格產生正面影響

But the bad news would be that, presumably,

但壞消息就應該會是

economic growth isn't going quite as well as hoped.

經濟增長就不會如預期般地進行

Either way, this is perhaps the most important question for markets in 2018:

不管哪種方式，這都會是 2018 年市場上最重要的問題

have we really seen peak liquidity?

我們見到流動性高點了嗎？