whether this is really the next big thing or just a fluke waiting to implode.

比特幣是否是下一個新趨勢，或只是個僥倖，正等待崩塌

Getting a piece of the action could be fiscal genius or disaster.

參與投資可能是財務上聰明的作法，也可能是場大災難

Here's why this matters.

來看看這為什麼重要

Bitcoin has seen a 1,000% growth since the start of the year,

比特幣從今年初到現在成長了 1000％

growth unlike anything we've ever seen before.

這是過去從沒看過的成長幅度

This may sound impressive, but the warning signs are there that the cryptocurrency

這或許令人驚豔，但是也有警訊指出加密貨幣

could be headed towards a massive fall.

可能正走向大規模的崩潰

For one thing,

其中一點是

traditional currency is usually backed by something external in value, like gold.

傳統貨幣通常由具有外部價值的物品做後盾，例如黃金

Bitcoin's value is determined by investor interest, which is much harder to predict.

比特幣的價值是由投資人利潤決定的，比起黃金難以預測的多

And, so far, the cryptocurrency hasn't reach widespread use,

至今，加密貨幣也還沒被廣泛地使用

nor is it likely to in the near future.

在未來也不太可能

At least for now, this makes the digital currency

至少在現在，這讓數位貨幣

more of an investment opportunity than a transactional unit.

多被視作投資機會，而不是交易的單位

But Bitcoin doesn't have a financial administrator,

但是比特幣並沒有財務主管單位

so its value is entirely speculative and extremely volatile.

所以它的價值完全是投機性的，而且極度不穩定

If you own a piece and the whole value tanks, the share is essentially worthless,

如果你持有比特幣而它的價格崩盤，你所持有的就完全沒有了價值

and all the money invested is gone.

所有投資的錢都蒸發了

It's hard to imagine a financial institution being sympathetic in that situation.

這種情況下，很難想像有財政機構會展現任何的同情

JP Morgan boss, Jamie Dimon, put it bluntly in September,

九月時，摩根大通的老闆 Jamie Dimon 直白地說

calling the digital currency a fraud that would ultimately blow up.

數位貨幣是個騙局，最終將會崩潰

He said, for countries like Venezuela or North Korea,

他說，對於像委瑞內拉與北韓等國家，

or the dark web where people can transfer money anonymously,

或是暗網上的人可以匿名進行金錢交易

there might be a market for it, but it's limited.

比特幣在此可能有市場，但是終究有限

Otherwise, he called it stupid and dangerous.

除此之外，他認為比特幣愚蠢又危險

But not all fiscal experts and investors are wary.

但並不是所有的財務專家和投資者都持觀望態度

Many hedge funds have decided to include Bitcoin in their portfolios.

很多避險基金決定把比特幣加入投資組合裡

CME Group, the world's largest futures exchange,

芝加哥商品交易所，世界最大的期貨交易所

plans to launch a futures contract for Bitcoin by the end of the year.

計劃要在今年底開始比特幣的期貨合約

And some realtors are even accepting Bitcoin for property.

有些房仲甚至接受比特幣付款

It's possible that this is the start of a new age of digital currency.

這有可能是數位貨幣新時代的開端

But if Bitcoin continues its historic surge and pops,

但如果比特幣持續過去的成長，最終崩盤

it will likely be seen as a major, perhaps fatal, setback for cryptocurrencies.

很可能被視為對加密貨幣的嚴重打擊

Not only will a lot of investors be out of a lot of money, but

不只很多投資人會損失大量財富

the idea of a sustainable digital currency might be damaged for good.

永續數位貨幣的概念可能就永遠的蒙上一層陰影