It's great to have you here.

真的很榮幸你能來。

Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.

伊隆 • 馬斯克（馬）：多謝邀請。

CA: So, in the next half hour or so,

安：接下來的半個多小時，

we're going to spend some time

我們要花點時間

exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like,

探索你的願景，未來怎樣令人興奮。

which I guess makes the first question a little ironic:

我想問的第一個問題會有點反諷。

Why are you boring?

你為什麽無聊？（註：他的公司取名 「無聊」The BORING Company ）

EM: Yeah.

馬：是啊。

I ask myself that frequently.

我也經常這麽問自己。

We're trying to dig a hole under LA,

我們打算在洛杉磯的 地底下挖個大窟窿，

and this is to create the beginning

這可是開創了新起點，

of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels

希望建成三維網路隧道，

to alleviate congestion.

來緩解交通擁堵。

So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic.

現在交通是件最令人難以忍受的事，

It affects people in every part of the world.

影響到世界各地的人，

It takes away so much of your life.

也佔用了人很多的時間。

It's horrible.

這太可怕了。

It's particularly horrible in LA.

在洛杉磯尤其恐怖。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: I think you've brought with you

安：我想你帶來了

the first visualization that's been shown of this.

未來工程的首映片。

Can I show this?

我能放嗎？

EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time --

馬：當然可以了，這還是第一次，

Just to show what we're talking about.

讓大家看看我們在說什麼。

So a couple of key things that are important

裏面有幾個很重要的關鍵

in having a 3D tunnel network.

在講三維網路隧道的建設。

First of all, you have to be able

你得先整合隧道的入出口，

to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel

無縫對接城市。

seamlessly into the fabric of the city.

所以，藉由電梯

So by having an elevator,

和位於電梯上的汽車滑托，

sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator,

就可以整合隧道的網路出入口，

you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network

只佔用兩個停車位的空間。

just by using two parking spaces.

接著車子就上了汽車滑托。

And then the car gets on a skate.

隧道是不限速的。

There's no speed limit here,

我們設計車速能到每小時 200 公里。

so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.

安：多快？

CA: How much?

馬：時速 200 公里，約 130 英里。

EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour.

從西木區到洛杉磯機場應該

So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX

只要六分鐘，五、六分鐘的樣子。

in six minutes -- five, six minutes.

（掌聲）

(Applause)

安：因此竣工以後

CA: So possibly, initially done,

可能類似收費公路。

it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis.

馬：是的。

EM: Yeah.

安：我想這也可以

CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic

緩解部分地面交通的壓力。

from the surface streets as well.

馬：我不知道大家 有沒有在影片中注意到

EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video,

挖多少層隧道其實沒有限制。

but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have.

你可以往下挖的深度 遠多於往上蓋的高度。

You can go much further deep than you can go up.

最深的礦井深度比最高的建築還要高，

The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall,

所以想要緩解任何級別的城市擁堵

so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion

都可以通過三維網路隧道來解決。

with a 3D tunnel network.

這是非常重要的一點。

This is a very important point.

反駁隧道可行性的一樣關鍵是

So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels,

每增加一層隧道來紓解交通壅塞

that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up,

很快就會被塞滿而失效，

and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion.

然後你回到起始點，又壅塞了。

But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels,

不過你可以想挖多少層就挖多少層，

any number of levels.

多少層都可以。

CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig,

安：可是依過往的經驗， 挖地道非常耗錢，

and that would block this idea.

有可能會阻礙這個想法。

EM: Yeah.

馬：是的，

Well, they're right.

他們是沒錯。

To give you an example, the LA subway extension,

擧個例子，洛杉磯地鐵的延伸工程，

which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension

我想是兩英里半的擴建，

that was just completed for two billion dollars.

剛剛完工，花了二十億美元。

So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA.

所以在洛杉磯擴建地鐵 大約每英里十億美元。

And this is not the highest utility subway in the world.

這還不是世上最高效用的地鐵。

So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally.

說的沒錯，挖隧道通常都很難。

I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement

我想至少每英里的成本需改善十倍

in the cost per mile of tunneling.

才能夠用隧道施工法。

CA: And how could you achieve that?

安：那如何實現呢？

EM: Actually, if you just do two things,

馬：其實，只要做兩件事，

you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement,

大約可提高一個數量級， （註：十分之一的花費）

and I think you can go beyond that.

我想還可以更好。

So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter

第一件事是縮小隧道直徑，

by a factor of two or more.

縮一半或更多。

So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations

據法律規定，一條單程隧道

has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter

得有 26 或 28 英尺的直徑，

to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles

要考慮撞車和緊急車輛的通行，

and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars.

還要讓機動車夠通風。

But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting,

但如果縮小直徑── 我們在嘗試12 英尺──

which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through,

夠電動滑托通過了。

you drop the diameter by a factor of two

把直徑減到一半，

and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four,

截面積會縮小四倍，

and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.

對應切面的隧道成本也會降低四倍，

So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there.

那大約改善了半個數量級。

Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop,

現在的挖隧道機 挖到一半時會停下來，

and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements

留下時間加固，

for the tunnel wall.

加固隧道壁。

So if you design the machine instead

所以如果有人設計機械

to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing,

連續挖隧道還同時加固，

that will give you a factor of two improvement.

那就是兩倍的改善。

Combine that and that's a factor of eight.

兩個加起來，就是八倍。

Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits,

而且這些機器遠未發揮 最大效能和熱極限，

so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially.

可以大幅提昇機器的功率，

I think you can get at least a factor of two,

我想至少增效兩倍，

maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that.

甚至四、五倍的提升。

So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps

我覺得靠這一系列 相當直接簡潔的步驟，

to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement

能達到超過一個數量級的改進，

in the cost per mile,

以每英里的成本來計算的話。

and our target actually is --

而我們的目標實際上是──

we've got a pet snail called Gary,

我們有隻叫「小蝸」的寵物蝸牛，

this is from Gary the snail from "South Park,"

是「南方公園」電視節目的小蝸牛，

I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."

抱歉，我想說的是「海綿寶寶」。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So Gary is capable of --

「小蝸」很有能力，

currently he's capable of going 14 times faster

目前它能比隧道鑽掘機

than a tunnel-boring machine.

快 14 倍。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: You want to beat Gary.

安：你想打敗「小蝸」。

EM: We want to beat Gary.

馬：我們想打敗「小蝸」。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

He's not a patient little fellow,

他可不是有耐心的小傢伙，

and that will be victory.

我們要──那就是勝利。

Victory is beating the snail.

勝利就是打敗蝸牛。

CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities,

安：但也有很多人 在幻想未來城市的時候，

they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.

想到的解決之道 是飛行汽車，無人機等等，

You go aboveground.

在地面上發展。

Why isn't that a better solution?

為什麼那些不是更好的方案？

You save all that tunneling cost.

那些都省掉大筆隧道成本。

EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.

馬：是的。我支持飛行器。

Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly.

我做火箭， 顯然我喜歡會飛的玩意兒。

This is not some inherent bias against flying things,

我內心對飛行器沒有偏見，

but there is a challenge with flying cars

但飛行汽車有問題，

in that they'll be quite noisy,

因為他們會很吵，

the wind force generated will be very high.

飛來飛去產生的風也很大。

Let's just say that if something's flying over your head,

假如有東西在你的頭上方飛，

a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place,

一大堆車子在空中到處飛，

that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.

這場面不由得讓人焦慮。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today."

你可不會想：「我覺得今天很不錯。」

You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap,

你可能會想：「這車的輪轂保養了嗎？

or is it going to come off and guillotine me?"

會不會脫落斬斷我的脖子？」

Things like that.

類似這種狀況。

CA: So you've got this vision

安：所以你想像的前景

of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath.

未來城市是四通八達的 立體地下網路隧道。

Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?

這搭配超迴路列車（Hyperloop）嗎？

Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea

你會把幾年前發布的超迴路列車概念

you released a few years ago.

用在這些隧道嗎？

EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around

馬：是的，我們嘗試超迴路列車

with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.

有段時間了。

We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX,

我們毗鄰 SpaceX 建了一條 超迴路列車測試賽道，

just for a student competition,

是個學生競賽，

to encourage innovative ideas in transport.

激發學生想出交通運輸的新創想法。

And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world

實際上它是目前世上最大的真空艙，

after the Large Hadron Collider,

僅次於大型強子對撞機，

by volume.

按體積來算的話。

So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing,

做這個很有趣，但是個業餘興趣，

and then we think we might --

我們想──

so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods,

我們造了輛助力車 來推動學生的競賽車廂，

but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go

但我們也想看助力車能跑多快，

if it's not pushing something.

尤其是空載的狀態下。

So we're cautiously optimistic

我們對此審慎樂觀，

we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train

有可能會比世界上 最快的子彈列車還要快，

even in a .8-mile stretch.

即便是跑在 0.8 英里長的軌道上。

CA: Whoa. Good brakes.

安：噢，剎車系統很不錯。

EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.

馬：是的，我的意思是──不錯。

It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.

要麼粉成了碎片，要麽就快到無敵。

CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel

安：但你可以想像下， 超迴路列車行駛在隧道中，

running quite long distances.

還能跑很遠。

EM: Exactly.

馬：完全正確。

And looking at tunneling technology,

再看看隧道技術，

it turns out that in order to make a tunnel,

事實證明要想挖隧道，

you have to --

你必須──

In order to seal against the water table,

為了要密封對付地下水，

you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good

通常設計的隧道牆

to about five or six atmospheres.

要硬到能承受至少五、六個大氣壓。

So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,

而真空下只要一個大氣壓，

or near-vacuum.

或近真空的狀態。

So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically,

事實上，自然而然，

if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table,

如果你造的隧道好到能防地下水，

it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.

顯然就能夠維持真空。

CA: Huh.

安：嗯。

EM: So, yeah.

馬：是啊。

CA: And so you could actually picture,

安：你想未來要運行你的

what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?

Hyperloop 隧道得有多長？

EM: I think there's no real length limit.

馬：我想長度不受限。

You could dig as much as you want.

你可以想挖多長就挖多長。

I think if you were to do something

我想如果你要建造

like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,

像華府特區到紐約的 Hyperloop，

I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way

你可能要把整條路都挪到地底下去。

because it's a high-density area.

因為這些地方的人口高度集中，

You're going under a lot of buildings and houses,

你要穿過很多建築和房屋底下。

and if you go deep enough,

只要挖得夠深，

you cannot detect the tunnel.

你感覺不到隧道的存在。

Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying

有時人們覺得會很煩，

to have a tunnel dug under my house.

如果在我家地底下挖隧道的話。

Like, if that tunnel is dug

假如把隧道挖到

more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house,

超過你房底三、四個隧道直徑深，

you will not be able to detect it being dug at all.

你根本就不會感到它在挖洞。

In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug,

事實上，要是你能感覺到在挖隧道，

whatever device you are using,

不管用什麽裝備，

you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military,

你都可以用那裝備 從以色列軍方撈上一筆，

who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas,

因為他們一直在嘗試 偵察出哈馬斯的隧道，

and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels.

當然還有美國海關和邊檢， 他們一直嘗試偵測地下販毒。

So the reality is

但其實是

that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations,

地球很能吸收振動，

and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level,

一旦隧道挖到一定的深度，

it is undetectable.

就測不到了。

Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument,

你得有高靈敏度的測震儀

you might be able to detect it.

才可能測得到。

CA: So you've started a new company to do this

安：你開了新公司專門做這個，

called The Boring Company.

叫做「The Boring Company」。

Very nice. Very funny.

很好。很好笑。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

EM: What's funny about that?

馬：有什麼好笑的？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: How much of your time is this?

安：你花多少時間在這項目上？

EM: It's maybe ...

馬：大概

two or three percent.

2％ 到 3％。

CA: You've bought a hobby.

安：你買了個業餘愛好。

This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.

伊隆 • 馬斯克的業餘愛好像這樣！

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

EM: I mean, it really is, like --

馬：我的意思是它真的是

This is basically interns and people doing it part time.

基本上是實習生和兼職的人在做。

We bought some second-hand machinery.

我們買了些二手設備。

It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so --

好像是在消磨時光，但進展還不錯。

CA: So an even bigger part of your time

安：你更大部分的時間

is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla.

花在特斯拉電動車和運輸。

Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project

你挖隧道的動機……

the realization that actually,

你實際去挖隧道的原因之一，

in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving,

是不是因為一旦世上 有了電動車和自駕車，

there may end up being more cars on the roads

未來路上的汽車可能比目前更多呢？

on any given hour than there are now?

馬：是的，確實這樣。

EM: Yeah, exactly.

很多人覺得一旦讓汽車自動駕駛，

A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous,

可以開得更快還能緩解交通。

they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion.

一定程度上有它的道理。

And to some degree that will be true,

然而一旦共用自駕車更便宜，

but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car

任意起點、目的地都到得了，

and you can go point to point,

搭車將比搭巴士便宜，

the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus.

價格低於巴士的票價。

Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.

所以共用自駕會使上路的汽車更多，

So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy,

交通會變得更糟。

and actually traffic will get far worse.