Not yours, of course -- other people's.

當然不是談你們的非理性行為，談別人的

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

So after being at MIT for a few years,

在麻省理工學院待了數年後，

I realized that writing academic papers is not that exciting.

我發現寫學術文章不是很刺激的一回事。

You know, I don't know how many of those you read,

我不知道你們閱讀了多少學術文章。

but it's not fun to read and often not fun to write --

但閱讀和寫這些文章並不有趣。

even worse to write.

寫尤甚。

So I decided to try and write something more fun.

因此我決定嘗試寫一些更有趣的東西，

And I came up with an idea that I will write a cookbook.

並且想到不如寫一本烹飪書。

And the title for my cookbook was going to be

書的標題是

"Dining Without Crumbs: The Art of Eating Over the Sink."

「餐不餘屑： 在廚房水槽上進餐的藝術。」

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And it was going to be a look at life through the kitchen.

這本書是透過廚房看人生，

And I was quite excited about this. I was going to talk

而我對於這個題目相當感興趣。

a little bit about research, a little bit about the kitchen.

我打算寫一點關於研究和廚房的事。

You know, we do so much in the kitchen I thought this would be interesting.

我們在廚房裡做好多事，我覺得這會非常有趣。

And I wrote a couple of chapters.

我寫了幾個章節，

And I took it to MIT press and they said,

然後把它拿給麻省理工學院出版社看。他們說：

"Cute, but not for us. Go and find somebody else."

「很可愛，但不適合我們。 去找其他出版社吧。」

I tried other people and everybody said the same thing,

我試了不同的出版社，大家都是說：

"Cute. Not for us."

「很可愛的書，但不適合我們。」

Until somebody said,

直到有人說：

"Look, if you're serious about this,

「欸，如果你是認真的，

you first have to write a book about your research. You have to publish something,

你就必須先寫一本關於你的研究的書。你必須先發表一些東西，

and then you'll get the opportunity to write something else.

然後才有機會寫其他東西。

If you really want to do it you have to do it."

只有這個辦法。」

So I said, "You know, I really don't want to write about my research.

我說：「我真的不想寫我的研究。

I do this all day long. I want to write something else.

那是我整天在寫的啊，我想寫別的，

Something a bit more free, less constrained."

一些比較自由、比較不拘謹的題目。」

And this person was very forceful and said,

那個人非常堅持地說：

"Look. That's the only way you'll ever do it."

「 聽好：這是你唯一的方法了。」

So I said, "Okay, if I have to do it -- "

然後我說：「好，如果我真的需要這樣做．．．」

I had a sabbatical. I said, "I'll write about my research

我請了假。 我說：「如果沒別的辦法，

if there is no other way. And then I'll get to do my cookbook."

那我會先寫研究，然後就可以寫烹飪書了。」

So I wrote a book on my research.

然後我寫了關於我研究的書，

And it turned out to be quite fun in two ways.

結果我卻發現挺有趣的。有兩個原因：

First of all, I enjoyed writing.

首先，我喜歡寫作。

But the more interesting thing was that

但最有趣的是，

I started learning from people.

我開始從別人身上學習。

It's a fantastic time to write,

寫作很棒

because there is so much feedback you can get from people.

因為可以從別人身上得到好多回應

People write me about their personal experience,

有人寫信述說他們的個人經驗，

and about their examples, and what they disagree,

他們的例子，他們不同意我的地方

and nuances.

以及一些精細的見解。

And even being here -- I mean the last few days,

甚至在這裡的這幾天

I've known really heights of obsessive behavior

我才知道

I never thought about.

原來強迫症可以這麼嚴重

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Which I think is just fascinating.

我覺得這實在太有趣了

I will tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.

我來講講非理性行為

And I want to start by giving you some examples of visual illusion

先從一些錯視的例子開始

as a metaphor for rationality.

作為理性錯覺的比喻

So think about these two tables.

請大家看一下這兩張桌子

And you must have seen this illusion.

你們已經看到這張錯視圖

If I asked you what's longer, the vertical line on the table on the left,

哪一個比較長：左邊桌子的垂直線，

or the horizontal line on the table on the right?

還是右邊桌子的水平線？

Which one seems longer?

哪個看起來比較長？

Can anybody see anything but the left one being longer?

有人覺得左邊的比較不長嗎？

No, right? It's impossible.

沒有吧？不可能的

But the nice thing about visual illusion is we can easily demonstrate mistakes.

但錯視圖的好處就在，我們能輕易地証明錯誤

So I can put some lines on; it doesn't help.

我可以加一些線。沒啥幫助

I can animate the lines.

我可以移動這些線

And to the extent you believe I didn't shrink the lines,

讓你們相信我沒有縮短這些線

which I didn't, I've proven to you that your eyes were deceiving you.

而我真的沒有。這證明你們的眼睛騙了你們

Now, the interesting thing about this

最有趣的是

is when I take the lines away,

當我把這些線拿走後

it's as if you haven't learned anything in the last minute.

就好像你們剛剛那一分鐘都沒學到任何東西

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

You can't look at this and say, "Okay now I see reality as it is."

你沒辦法看著圖說：「OK，我現在能看到真正的長度了。」

Right? It's impossible to overcome this

對吧？這是沒辦法克服的

sense that this is indeed longer.

你沒辦法覺得它真的比較長

Our intuition is really fooling us in a repeatable, predictable, consistent way.

我們的直覺一再地、用可預期的方式在愚弄我們

And there is almost nothing we can do about it,

而我們沒辦法改變

aside from taking a ruler and starting to measure it.

除了拿一把尺來量

Here is another one -- this is one of my favorite illusions.

另一個例子。這是我最喜歡的錯覺之一。

What do you see the color that top arrow is pointing to?

上方的箭頭指的是什麼顏色？

Brown. Thank you.

棕色。謝謝

The bottom one? Yellow.

下面的呢？黃色

Turns out they're identical.

但它們其實是一模一樣的

Can anybody see them as identical?

有人覺得是一模一樣的嗎？

Very very hard.

非常難

I can cover the rest of the cube up.

我可以把剩下的立方體遮起來

And if I cover the rest of the cube you can see that they are identical.

遮起來之後，你們可以看到是一樣的

And if you don't believe me you can get the slide later

如果不相信我，可以等下拿這張投影片

and do some arts and crafts and see that they're identical.

剪貼一下，就會發現它們是一樣的

But again it's the same story

這和上個例子一樣

that if we take the background away,

如果我們移除背景

the illusion comes back. Right.

錯覺又會回來。

There is no way for us not to see this illusion.

我們沒有辦法不看到錯覺

I guess maybe if you're colorblind I don't think you can see that.

如果你色盲，我想你可能看不到

I want you to think about illusion as a metaphor.

請你們把錯覺想成是一個譬喻

Vision is one of the best things we do.

視覺是我們最出色的能力之一

We have a huge part of our brain dedicated to vision --

我們大腦的很大一部分是掌管視覺

bigger than dedicated to anything else.

比其他的部分都還要大

We do more vision more hours of the day than we do anything else.

每天多在"看"的時間比其他事多很多

And we are evolutionarily designed to do vision.

人類的進化使我們擅長視力

And if we have these predictable repeatable mistakes in vision,

如果我們很擅長的視覺，都會發生這些

which we're so good at,

可預期的、重複的錯誤

what's the chance that we don't make even more mistakes

那我們對自己不擅長的東西

in something we're not as good at --

犯錯的機會就會更大了

for example, financial decision making:

比如說，財務決策

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

something we don't have an evolutionary reason to do,

財務決策和物種進化沒有關係

we don't have a specialized part of the brain,

大腦並沒有專門管財務決策的部份

and we don't do that many hours of the day.

也沒有花很多時間在財務決策上

And the argument is in those cases

而我的論點是，在這些情況下

it might be the issue that we actually make many more mistakes

我們很可能犯了更多的錯誤

and, worse, not have an easy way to see them.

更糟的是，並沒有簡單的方法能察覺錯誤

Because in visual illusions we can easily demonstrate the mistakes;

在錯視上，我們能很容易地證明錯誤

in cognitive illusion it's much, much harder

在認知錯覺上，要證明錯誤

to demonstrate to people the mistakes.

卻是難的多

So I want to show you some cognitive illusions,

現在我要用同樣的方法示範認知錯覺

or decision-making illusions, in the same way.

也可以稱為決策錯覺

And this is one of my favorite plots in social sciences.

這是我最喜歡的社會科學實驗之一

It's from a paper by Johnson and Goldstein.

這是從Johnson和Goldstein的研究裡來的

And it basically shows

基本上是顯示

the percentage of people who indicated

有多少比例的人

they would be interested in giving their organs to donation.

有興趣捐贈器官

And these are different countries in Europe. And you basically

這些是不同的歐洲國家。而你可以

see two types of countries:

看到有兩種不同的國家

countries on the right, that seem to be giving a lot;

右邊國家很多人表示願意捐贈器官

and countries on the left that seem to giving very little,

而左邊國家就很少人願意

or much less.

或者說少很多

The question is, why? Why do some countries give a lot

重點是，為什麼？為什麼有些國家捐很多

and some countries give a little?

而有些國家捐很少？

When you ask people this question,

當你問人們這個問題的時候

they usually think that it has to be something about culture.

他們通常以為答案和文化有關

Right? How much do you care about people?

對吧？你有多關心別人？

Giving your organs to somebody else

捐獻自己的器官給別人

is probably about how much you care about society, how linked you are.

基本上就代表你有多關心這個社會

Or maybe it is about religion.

或者和宗教有關

But, if you look at this plot,

但如果你看這張圖

you can see that countries that we think about as very similar

可以發現，我們以為很相似的國家

actually exhibit very different behavior.

其實做出非常不同的行為

For example, Sweden is all the way on the right,

例如，瑞典在最右邊

and Denmark, that we think is culturally very similar,

而我們覺得丹麥和它在文化上很相近

is all the way on the left.

但丹麥卻在最左邊

Germany is on the left. And Austria is on the right.

德國在左邊，而奧地利卻在右邊

The Netherlands is on the left. And Belgium is on the right.

荷蘭在左邊，比利時卻在右邊

And finally, depending on your particular version

最後，每個人對歐洲的認知

of European similarity,

可能不相同，

you can think about the U.K and France as either similar culturally or not.

有人覺得英國和法國的文化很相似，有人覺得很不同

But it turns out that from organ donation they are very different.

但在器官捐贈上，他們是很不同的

By the way, the Netherlands is an interesting story.

對了，荷蘭人很有趣

You see the Netherlands is kind of the biggest of the small group.

你看，荷蘭是少人捐贈器官的國家之中比例最高的

Turns out that they got to 28 percent

但也只有28%而已

after mailing every household in the country a letter

在給全國的家庭都寄信，

begging people to join this organ donation program.

求他們加入器官捐贈計畫後，只有28%

You know the expression, "Begging only gets you so far"?

大家都知道這個諺語吧，『靠哀求得到的有限』

It's 28 percent in organ donation.

在捐贈器官上，『有限』就等於28%

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But whatever the countries on the right are doing

但右邊國家的表現

they are doing a much better job than begging.

比哀求來的好太多了

So what are they doing?

他們到底做了什麼呢？

Turns out the secret has to do with a form at the DMV.

原來這跟監理處的一張表格有關

And here is the story.

是這樣的

The countries on the left have a form at the DMV

左邊國家在監理處拿到的表格

that looks something like this.

看起來像這樣

Check the box below if you want to participate

如果你願意參加器官捐贈計畫

in the organ donor program.

請在框框中打勾

And what happens?

結果呢？

People don't check, and they don't join.

他們不打勾。所以他們就不參加

The countries on the right, the ones that give a lot,

右邊捐很多的國家

have a slightly different form.

他們的表格有點不同

It says check the box below if you don't want to participate.

上面寫：如果你不想參加，就在框框打勾

Interestingly enough, when people get this,

有趣的是，當人們拿到表格時

they again don't check -- but now they join.

他們還是不打勾。但是現在他們參加了

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Now think about what this means.

想想它代表的意思

We wake up in the morning and we feel we make decisions.

早上起來，我們覺得自己要做很多決定

We wake up in the morning and we open the closet

我們早上醒來，打開衣櫃

and we feel that we decide what to wear.

覺得自己必須決定穿什麼

And we open the refrigerator and we feel that we decide what to eat.

打開冰箱，覺得自己必須決定吃什麼

What this is actually saying is that

但事實上是

much of these decisions are not residing within us.

很多的決定都不是我們控制的

They are residing in the person who is designing that form.

而是設計那張表格的人

When you walk into the DMV,

當你走進監理處

the person who designed the form will have a huge influence

設計那張表格的人將會大大地影響

on what you'll end up doing.

你的未來

Now it's also very hard to intuit these results. Think about it for yourself.

而這些結果也很難用直覺預測。想想看

How many of you believe

你們多少人相信

that if you went to renew your license tomorrow,

如果你們明天去換新駕照

and you went to the DMV,

你走進監理處

and you would encounter one of these forms,

拿到這些表格

that it would actually change your own behavior?

它們真的可以改變你的行為？

Very, very hard to think that you will influence us.

非常難相信我們會被影響

We can say, "Oh, these funny Europeans, of course it would influence them."

我們會說：『喔這些好笑的歐洲人當然會被影響』

But when it comes to us,

但當我們碰到同樣情況時

we have such a feeling that we are at the driver's seat,

我們卻覺得一切由自己主導

we have such a feeling that we are in control,

覺得一切操之在己

and we are making the decision,

我們是做決定的人

that it's very hard to even accept

而很難接受

the idea that we actually have

事實上我們擁有的

an illusion of making a decision, rather than an actual decision.

是做決定的錯覺，而不是真的決定權

Now, you might say,

而你可能會說

"These are decisions we don't care about."

這些都是不重要的決定

In fact, by definition, these are decisions

這些決定

about something that will happen to us after we die.

是決定我們死後會如何

How could we care about something less

有什麼事情

than something that happens after we die?

比我們死後的事更無關緊要呢？

So a standard economist, someone who believes in rationality,

所以一個典型的、相信理性的經濟學家

would say, "You know what? The cost of lifting the pencil

可能會說：『你知道嗎？提起鉛筆

and marking a V is higher than the possible

打一個勾所付出的代價

benefit of the decision,

都比這個決定重要多了

so that's why we get this effect."

所以我們才得到這種結果

But, in fact, it's not because it's easy.

但事實上，並不是因為這決定很簡單

It's not because it's trivial. It's not because we don't care.

並不是因為它不重要，也不是因為我們不在乎

It's the opposite. It's because we care.

正好相反。是因為我們在乎

It's difficult and it's complex.

因為這決定很難又很複雜

And it's so complex that we don't know what to do.

複雜到我們不知道該怎麼辦

And because we have no idea what to do

因為我們不知道該怎麼辦

we just pick whatever it was that was chosen for us.

我們就選了既定的選項

I'll give you one more example for this.

這邊有另一個例子

This is from a paper by Redelmeier and Schaefer.

出自於 Redelmeier和Schaefer的研究

And they said, "Well, this effect also happens to experts,

他們說這個現象也發生在專家身上

people who are well-paid, experts in their decisions,

那些高薪的決策專家

do it a lot."

也常常犯

And they basically took a group of physicians.

Redelmeier和Schaefer找來一群醫生

And they presented to them a case study of a patient.

給他們看一個病人的個案

Here is a patient. He is a 67-year-old farmer.

這是病人，67歲的老農夫

He's been suffering from a right hip pain for a while.

他的右髖部已經痛了很久

And then they said to the physician,

然後他們告訴這群醫生

"You decided a few weeks ago

「幾個禮拜前，你們確定

that nothing is working for this patient.

沒有藥對這位病人有效

All these medications, nothing seems to be working.

所有的藥物都沒有效