I don't think the stock market is particularly overvalued.

我不認為股市有特別被高估

It's clearly trading above the long term average,

股市的交易情況確實高於長期平均，

but that doesn't necessarily mean that the market is significantly overvalued.

但這並不必定代表股市有顯著地被高估

A few points to make.

有幾點必須聲明

First and foremost is US equities continue to trade cheap to bonds.

首先、最重要的，美國的股票持續低價交易

Now you look at the earnings of yields of stocks compared to the treasury yield,

現在，你看看股票獲利所帶來的收入，和國債獲利相比之下，

it's not clear that there's an alternative to owning the equity markets.

目前尚不清楚是否有他者能夠代替股票主導資本市場

What worries people is that they remember the late 1990s and they have this recency bias and believe that if the stocks have been going up for this long,

人們擔憂的是，他們記取了 1990 年代末期的教訓，抱持著近期偏差的錯誤認知，並相信如果股市持續上漲了這麼久，

then we must be facing some sort of bubble.

那我們一定將面臨某種泡沫現象

The reality is, if you look at the top 10 names of the NASDAQ stocks in 1999,

現實是，如果你去看看 1999 年那斯達克榜上的前十大股份公司，

the median price to sales was over 20 times.

市值營收比的中位數超過了 20 倍

Today that number on the top 10 names in NASDAQ, the median price of sales is closer to 5 times.

如今那斯達克榜上前十大股份公司的市值營收比，其中位數接近於 5 倍

So that's one fourth of the valuations that you had at the height of the tech bubble.

所以這個計價是當初科技泡沫時期的四分之一

So, yes, stocks are somewhat above their long term average.

所以，是的，股市確實多少高於長期平均

That should be expected when the global economy is growing and policies accommodate it.

在全球經濟成長、政策也較寬鬆的情況下，這是預料之中的

We're nowhere near that point of significant concern yet.

現今情況還未到達需要重大關切的程度