Name: 氣候變遷，科學家怎麼說？ (Climate Change: What Do Scientists Say?)
Uploaded: 2017-11-01T10:40:08.000Z
Duration: 5 min 5 s

I’m an atmospheric physicist. I’ve published
more than 200 scientific papers. For 30 years

我是一個大氣物理學家。我已經發表了
200多篇科學論文。30年來

情態副詞

I taught at MIT, during which time the climate
has changed remarkably little. But the cry

我在麻省理工學院教書，這期間氣候
變化不大。但這一呼聲

of “global warming” has grown ever more
shrill. In fact, it seems that the less the

全球變暖 "的說法越來越多。
尖銳的。事實上，似乎越是不

climate changes, the louder the voices of
the climate alarmists get. So, let’s clear

氣候變化的聲音就越大。
氣候預警者得到的。所以，讓我們清除

the air and create a more accurate picture
of where we really stand on the issue of global

空氣，並創建一個更準確的影像
我們在全球問題上的真正立場是什麼？

warming or, as it is now called -- climate
change.

氣候變暖，或現在所說的氣候
變化。

There are basically three groups of people
dealing with this issue. Groups one and two

基本上有三類人
處理這個問題。第一組和第二組

are scientists. Group three consists mostly,
at its core, of politicians, environmentalists

是科學家。第三組主要包括：
其核心是政客、環保主義者

and media.
Group one is associated with the scientific

和媒體。
第一組是與科學有關的。

part of the United Nation’s International
Panel on Climate Change or IPCC (Working Group 1).

聯合國國際刑事法院的一部分
氣候變化專門委員會或氣專委（第一工作組）；

These are scientists who mostly believe
that recent climate change is primarily due

這些科學家大多相信
最近的氣候變化主要是由於

to man’s burning of fossil fuels -- oil,
coal and natural gas. This releases C02, carbon dioxide,

人類燃燒化石燃料 -- -- 石油；
煤和天然氣。這會釋放出C02，即二氧化碳。

into the atmosphere and, they believe,
this might eventually dangerously heat the planet.

到大氣中，而且，他們認為，。
這最終可能會給地球帶來危險的熱量。

Group two is made up of scientists who don’t see this as an especially serious problem.

第二組由科學家組成，他們不認為這是一個特別嚴重的問題。

This is the group I belong to. We’re usually referred to as skeptics. We note that there are many reasons why the

這是我所屬的團體。我們通常被稱為懷疑論者。我們注意到，有很多原因，為什麼

climate changes -- the sun, clouds, oceans,
the orbital variations of the earth,

氣候變化 -- -- 太陽、雲層、海洋；
地球的軌道變化；

as well as a myriad of other inputs. None of these
is fully understood, and there is no evidence

以及無數的其他投入。這些都不是
是完全理解的，而且沒有證據表明

that CO2 emissions are the dominant factor.
But actually there is much agreement between

認為二氧化碳排放是主導因素。
但實際上在以下幾個方面有很多共識

both groups of scientists. The following are
such points of agreement:

這兩組科學家。以下是
這種協議點。

1) The climate is always changing.
2) CO2 is a greenhouse gas without which life

1）氣候總是在變化的。
2）二氧化碳是一種溫室氣體，沒有它，生命就會

on earth is not possible, but adding it to
the atmosphere should lead to some warming.

在地球上是不可能的，但把它加到
大氣層應該會導致一些變暖。

3) Atmospheric levels of CO2 have been increasing
since the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century.

3）大氣中的二氧化碳含量一直在增加。
自19世紀小冰河期結束後，。

4) Over this period (the past two centuries),

4）在這一時期（過去兩個世紀）。

the global mean temperature has increased
slightly and erratically by about 1.8 degrees

全球平均氣溫上升
稍微不穩定地上升了約1.8度。

Fahrenheit or one degree Celsius; but only
since the 1960’s have man’s greenhouse

華氏度或攝氏一度；但只能是
自20世紀60年代以來，人類的溫室效應就一直存在。

emissions been sufficient to play a role.
5) Given the complexity of climate, no confident

排放是否足以發揮作用。
5) 考慮到氣候的複雜性，沒有任何信心能在短時間內使氣候變暖。

prediction about future global mean temperature
or its impact can be made. The IPCC, acknowledged

預測未來全球平均氣溫
或其影響可。氣專委，承認

in its own 2007 report that “The long-term
prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

在其2007年的報告中，"長期
預測未來氣候狀態是不可能的"。

Most importantly, the scenario that the burning of fossil fuels

最重要的是，焚燒化石燃料的情形

leads to catastrophe isn’t part of what either group asserts.

導致災難並不屬於這兩組人的主張。

So why are so many people worried, indeed, panic
stricken about this issue.

那麼，為什麼有那麼多人擔心，確實是恐慌呢？
對這個問題感到震驚。

Here’s where Group Three comes in -- the politicians, environmentalists, and media.

這就是第三組的情況--政客、環保人士和媒體。

Global Warming Alarmism provides them, more
than any other issue, with the things they

全球變暖恐慌論為他們提供了更多的機會。
比任何其他問題，與他們的事情

most want: For politicians it’s money and
power. For environmentalists it’s money

最想要的。對政客來說，金錢和...
權力。對於環保主義者來說，這就是錢

for their organizations and confirmation of
their near religious devotion to the idea

的組織，並確認
他們近乎虔誠的理念

that man is a destructive force acting upon
nature. And for the media it’s ideology,

人是一種破壞性的力量，作用於
的性質。而對於媒體來說，就是意識形態。

money, and headlines -- doomsday scenarios
sell.

金錢和頭條新聞 -- -- 末日情景。
出售。

Meanwhile, over the last decade, scientists
outside of climate physics have jumped on

同時，在過去十年中，科學家
氣候物理學以外的人都跳上了

the bandwagon, publishing papers blaming global
warming for everything from acne to the Syrian

樂隊，發表論文指責全球
從粉刺到敘利亞的暖氣，一切都在變暖。

civil war. And, crony capitalists have eagerly
grabbed for the subsidies that governments

內戰。而且，裙帶資本家已經急切地
搶著要政府的補貼

have so lavishly provided.
Unfortunately, group three is winning the

已經如此奢侈地提供。
不幸的是，第三組贏得了

argument because they have drowned out the
serious debate that should be going on.

爭論，因為他們已經淹沒了
應該進行的嚴肅辯論。

But while politicians, environmentalists and
media types can waste a lot of money and scare

但當政治家、環保主義者和
媒介型的人可以浪費很多錢，也可以嚇唬人。

a lot of people, they won’t be able to bury
the truth. The climate will have the final word on that.

很多人，他們無法埋葬。
的真相。氣候將有最終的決定權。

I’m Richard Lindzen, emeritus professor of Atmospheric Sciences at MIT, for PragerUniversity.

我是理查德-林森，麻省理工學院大氣科學的名譽教授，為普拉格大學服務。