Yet another week of market highs, bulls cheering, everyone geting more enthusiastic about the stock market,

又一週多頭市場歡呼，所有人熱衷於股票市場

President Trump is again bragging about the performance, and certainly since election day,

川普總統又開始吹噓他從當選日開始的表現，

by mid-week up almost 20% from election day.

成長了百分之二十

And if you're pro-President Trump, you can congratulate him about that.

而如果你支持川普總統，你可以恭喜他

But also worth noting that, in fact, Obama's last election is was up also 20% from election day through this period,

值得一提的是，事實上，歐巴馬上次的選舉後同一期間的成長率也有二十，

so lots for both side to take credit for.

因此兩邊都歸功於自己

But, moving to the bad news, as we've talked about many times on the Bottom Line,

但是，到了壞消息的部分，我們在節目上提過很多次，

prices are hitting almost record levels.

價格正在挑戰歷史新高

Prices relative to fundamentals like earnings and cash flow,

基本的價格像是收益或現金流，

and the problem is that over the long term,

問題是長期來說，

at least historically, price has been a good indicator of long term future performance.

就過去的經驗，價格一直是好的長期表現指標，

Specifically, when prices are low, long-term performance is high.

尤其是，當價格都很低，長期表現都很好

When prices are high, long term performance is very low.

當價格很高，長期表現就會很低

This is something that John Hussman, many others have talked about, and we've talked about on the show.

這是 John Hussman，和其他人或我們曾在節目上提到的

The other problem right now is it's not just stocks that are expensive,

另一個問題是，不只是股票很貴

it is also bonds and cash. So the usual cure for an expensive stock market,

債券還有現金也是，因此一般應對價高市場的對策，

which is diversification, may not actually help you out that much if you're investing for the long term.

很多樣化的，可能無法真正幫助你長期投資

In fact, John Hussman this week, a portfolio manager,

事實上， 投資經理人 John Hussman

looks at the average that you can expect from a portfolio: stocks, bonds, and cash, and it's at his one of its lowest levels ever.

觀察這週的平均值，你可以預測股票、債券、以及現金都創下新低

Good news is, we will end on good news, which is, it's still positive.

好消息是，我們最後會得到好消息，意思是，它還是正值的

Over twelve years, Hussman estimates that you'll have the return of about one percent per year over the period,

過去12年，Hussman 預測你每年會有百分之一的股票收益，

a far cry from the 6-7 percent of diversified portfolio from normal valuations, but still positive, so it could be worse.

距離分散組合的正常估計值，百分之六到七，還是正值，所以也可能更差

- And that nominal 1%. - Absolutely!

- 而那是名目的百分之一 - 沒錯！

So, it's really positive! Really great!

所以真的全是正值的！很棒！

Yeah, but I mean I do think that there are things

對，但我想還有其中還有原因，

about this and I know last week I was little more bullish than you.

而且我知道我上週預測的漲幅比你還高

But I think there's a lot of this that makes me nervous

但我想有很多原因使我對殖利率感到焦慮，

the desperation for yield, across all asset classes, and raising everything up.

橫跨整個資產類別，使所有價格都提高

So that scares me a little bit.

那讓我有點害怕

Yes, this is a big difference from prior bubbles.

對，這有別於之前的泡沫經濟

In 2000 for example, stocks were extraordinary expensive, but bonds were yielding 6%!

例如2000年，股票貴得誇張，但債券殖利率才百分之六！

Of course, at that point everyone said 6%! That's pathetic!

當然，當時大家都說：百分之六！太可悲了！

I wanna own stocks that go up 20% a year, but now you look at the 6%, you'd say

我想要年成長率二十的股票！但當你現在看到百分之六，你會說

"Well, I wanna own some bonds, that's great!" But here we are, bonds yielding, point half, 2%,

「好吧，我要債券，很好了！」但我們看到債券零點五到二百分比的殖利率，不算是慰藉，

not much solace there, so everyone here as you say, chasing yields.

所以大家都說：追逐回報率。

Yeah, and even that the housing market is looking expesive again,

對，甚至房產市場又開始高漲，

or at least above the long-term average compared to rents.

或至少在租賃的長期平均之上

And even the private market is moving there, and of course, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

甚至連私人市場都有這個趨勢，而當然，比特幣與加密貨幣

So, it's a little, it is a little concerning.

所以它有點讓人擔心

Yes, so unless you think is different this time, which we're welcome to your opinion.

對，所以如果你感覺到一點不同，我們很樂意聽取你的意見

So, we are headed for a long-term period where financial assets will disappoint.

所以我們往長期週期來看，資產會使人失望