here now is Sam Stovall chief investment strategist at CFRA.

這是 CFRA 首席投資策劃 Sam Stovall

Alright Sam, the DOW had its best week of the year last week,

好的 Sam，道瓊指數創新今年收盤高點

but investors don't seem to be worried about

但投資人似乎不怎麼擔心

this week's Fed meeting which will likely include

這週聯準會上即將

an annoucement on its balance sheet,

公告資產負債表

and that's a big deal for the markets.

那對市場影響很大

Absolutely, they, the market basically has been hearing

的確，這件事市場已經流傳

for quite a long time. From Fed chair Yellen

一陣子了，自聯準會主席葉倫

about the rate tightening program, about how they're

提出的縮減計畫，他們如何

gonna keep that on hold for a little while now because of the inflation,

在通貨膨脹時暫停一陣

but the real focus is on the unwinding of the balance sheet.

但真正關注的焦點在未知的資產負債表上

But I think that there's gonna be no surprise.

但我覺得這並不意外

We're basically going to be told—given a better clarity

我們基本上會被告知更明確的時間

as to when. How long it's gonna happen,

它多久之後會發生

and a reminder that the transparency is gonna be there.

還有提醒大家透明度還是會在

And let's just reminder everyone that this unwinding of the balance sheet

在這裡提醒大家這裡所說的未知資產負債表

is a multi-year process, so this is not something

是多年累積的，所以並不是

that's going to be, you know that's gonna happen overnight.

像那種一夜間產生的結果

Let me also ask you about the S&P 500 which crossed 2500 on Friday.

我再告訴大家標準普爾 500 在星期五達到 2500 點

That was a big deal for the markets.

這對市場來說意義重大

When you were here about a month ago you expected

一個月前你在這裡的時候，你預測

the S&P 500 to test 23:50 at some point,

標準普爾 500 某種程度會收在 23:50

that hasn't happen yet but are you sticking by that

這還沒發生，但你還是覺得

forecast for the remainder of the 2017?

這個預報適用於 2017 接下來的情況嗎？

Well, I guess, I would say not for the remainder of the 2017.

嗯，我覺得我不會說是2017的預報

I don't think it's that great of a likelihood.

我覺得不太會

What I have found is that whenever the S&P was up

我所發現的事只要標準普爾指數上升

in both August and September, it continued to rise

在八月和九月。它持續提高的次數

for the remainder of the year 13 of 16 times.

在 16 次預報中有 13 次

And in those three times that had actually dipped,

然後在那三次實際上是下跌的

that the average is less than 1.3 percent.

平均少於 1.3 百分比

So basically with us hitting all-time highs in the S&P right now

所以基本上現在我們看到標準普爾創歷史新高

I think we're getting a running start for the rest of the year.

我認為是準備開始下半年的衝刺

And we to acknowledge the significance

然後我們必須了解

of where we are right now in the stock market

我們在股票市場處境的重要性

because September as your research points out

因為像在你的調查中指出，九月

is usually the worst year of the month (month of the year) for stocks,

通常是股票中最慘淡的月份

here we are week 3 in September and we're record highs.

現在已經是九月的第三週然後我們一直在創新高

Oh sure, and the reason that I published this information

噢對，我之所以發表這個資訊的原因

is not to try to get ahead of the market and say

不是想要做市場的領頭羊，然後說

this is going to happen.

這即將發生

But to remind the investors that

而是要提醒投資者

this frequently does happen.

這個情形常常會發生

And if you are aware of it, you're not going to react

如果你有注意到，你就不會對它

adversely to it. You're not gonna become your portfolio's

反應這麼大，當你賣在錯的時機賣掉時，

worst enemy by selling out at the wrong time.

你就不會成為你投資組合中的最糟的敵人

Actually, just leave things alone, and the market will take care of itself.

事實上你就將它擱在一旁，市場會自己搞定

Now any time you have stocks hitting record highs,

現在不論何時股票都再創新高

you have a lot of people come out and say,

你會看到很多人出來說

"Ok, this is it, correction is coming."

「好，就這樣，盤整要來了。」

So when strategists tell me,

所以當策略人告訴我：

"Hey, be overweight Europe stocks or emerging markets

「嘿，著重在比較歐洲股票市場或新興市場

versus the US," I mean what's your take on that kind of strategy?

與美股。」我的意思是你會接受這個策略嗎？

Well, I think is a good one. We've had 7 years in which the S&P

嗯我覺得是好的，我們已經有七年標準普爾

outperform the MSCI EAFE, the developed international index.

在國際股市歐澳遠東指數中表現傑出

The other 2 years are basically kept pace with it.

其他兩年基本上都有跟上

So "reversion to the mean" is the mantra now of global investors,

所以回歸的本意是國際投資人的信念

but I think about is actually the positive for domestic stocks as well

但我在想的是對的國內股票市場的好處

because we're all seeing a broadening out of this market place.

因為我們都看到這個市場在擴張

We're seeing——

我們看到

What does that mean?

這是什麼意思？

Meaning that more and more assets are participating in this advance.

意思是更多資產提前投入

Usually in a topping out scenario, you have a narrowing

通常是達到最高點的狀況，你擁有

of leadership. And as the result fewer and fewer stocks

有限的領導權。而結果是越來越少

are leading the way until they fizzle out

引路的股票，直到他們漸漸消失

then the market goes down.

然後市場就會走低

But right now we're actually seeing greater interest around the globe.

但現在我們看到很多來自各國的投資

Alright, just quickly, let's get your year-end target for

好，快速來看，年底要達到標準普爾 500

the S&P 500, right 2500 now, where do we go by

的目標，現在是 2500，我們會在12月31日

December 31st?

收在什麼地方？

Well, I think that we are pretty close to fair value right now,

嗯，我想我們現在已經接近公允價值

so I would tend to say that we're gonna be remaining

所以我會說我們應該會保持在

above 2500, but our 12 month target is currently 2560,

2500 以上，但我們的 12 月目標是 2560

so based on earnings expectations and inflationary projections,

所以根據預期所得和通膨，

it is going to be—I'm a bull with a lowercase "B," let's put it that way.

會是保守的樂觀者，我會這麼說。

- Good way of putting. Alright, Sam Stovall, thank you so much as always. - My pleasure!

- 比喻得很好。好的，非常謝謝 Sam Stovall！- 應該的！