Since the global financial crisis, the US Fed , the European Central Bank,

自從全球金融危機以來，美國聯邦、歐盟中央銀行、

the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England have printed money,

日本銀行、英格蘭銀行都大量印鈔

and bought assets worth $12 trillion dollars.

並買入價值12兆美元的資產

That's huge and unprecedented.

數量非常可觀且前所未見

Can we return monetary policy to something like normal?

究竟這樣能否使貨幣政策回歸正常呢？

With interest rates closer to 5%, rather than 0.

利率上升至近5%，而不是待在0

And central bank balance shrank back to about $3 trillion dollars.

央行收支平衡縮減到三兆美元

The short answer is: not in the near future.

簡單來說，短期是不可能看到了

The US Fed has come closest to the great unwind.

美國聯邦銀行正處以程度最大的鬆綁

It plans to shrink its balance sheet later this year.

計畫今年將縮減資產負債表

This will probably start in the autumn with a monthly reduction

這大約會發生在秋天以後，每月

in the assets held by the central bank of $6 billion dollars,

縮減央行所持有的60億美元

rising gradually to a maximum of $30 billion dollars a month.

並逐漸增加到一個月300億美元

Compared with the $4.5 trillion dollars it holds,

和央行所持有的 4.5 兆比起來

this is just dipping its toe in the water.

這只是試試水溫

No other major central bank is anywhere near.

沒有任何其他的央行能與美國比肩

Those in the Eurozone and the Bank of Japan are still printing money

不論是歐元區還是日本的銀行，都還在大量印鈔

and buying more assets.

以及購入資產

The Bank of England faces huge resident certainties.

英格蘭銀行更要面對留歐脫歐的危機

And all the while, interest rates will remain very low.

在此同時，利率仍居低

Partly because aging populations, low productivity growth,

某部分，是由於人口老化、低生產力成長、

and a saving glut have reduced the attractiveness of capital spending,

儲蓄過剩等問題降低了資本性支出的吸引力

lower interest rate and needed to balance desired savings

降低利率並需要平衡所需的儲蓄

and desired investment.

及投資

Partly because of public and private debt burdens have risen so far,

部分原因是公共和私人的債務提高

borrowers will struggle to cope with more expensive money.

借貸者在償還時，將要應付更昂貴的貨幣

So monetary policy isn't going anywhere fast.

所以貨幣政策在近期並不會有任何的變動