Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • Zeitgeist Day 2013 - 'Thinking in Systems' - Jason Lord

  • [Applause]

  • My name is Jason Lord.

  • I coordinate chapters (which are just awareness activism groups

  • in the state of California) of which we have 15 right now;

  • and there are eight Z-Day events going on in California this weekend.

  • So, to continue this emerging train of thought,

  • my presentation today is on the topic of 'Thinking in Systems,

  • a Worldview for a Natural Law-Based Economy.'

  • I find there are two angles when communicating these ideas:

  • one is the dominant value program of the culture,

  • where the goal of our awareness activism

  • is to essentially update the cultural mindset and hence the culture's values;

  • the other angle is understanding the actual structure of social operation,

  • in regards to the model that we express and how it works.

  • By now, you've heard much on the topic of social values,

  • which also include your personal value set,

  • which is the lens through which you see and interpret the world around you.

  • My hope today is that you'll take with you an alternate lens

  • with which to view the world: this lens being the foundation

  • for the very attainable and currently doable social system

  • the Movement advocates.

  • The goal here is to put systems into context

  • when discussing a Natural Law/ Resource-Based Economy.

  • I'm going to shorten that down to Natural Law model.

  • I've divided this presentation into four parts,

  • and they're short parts: 'Defining Systems in Language',

  • 'Seeing How Systems Have Behavior' (now that will be interesting),

  • 'A Quick Look at Three Broad Economic Components and What Life Need Means'

  • and 'Governance', the sticky topic.

  • Part one: 'Defining Systems'

  • The topics I want to cover pose a challenge on two levels:

  • language and relationships.

  • I'm using old language, which is our everyday language,

  • in order to express non-linear relationships.

  • It's easy to understand linear relationships with old language,

  • since two elements can be drawn on a graph,

  • showing the simple relationship with constant proportions;

  • whereas, nonlinear relationships do not produce a proportional effect

  • and can only be drawn in curves and wiggles.

  • The world is full of non-linear relationships,

  • which can surprise our linear-thinking minds.

  • Where we may have learned that a small push produces a small response,

  • it would follow in linear thinking that a larger push, twice as big,

  • would produce twice as big a response.

  • But in a non-linear system, twice as big a push

  • could produce a fraction of the response, a response magnitudes larger,

  • or no response at all.

  • So, with that in mind, for the next four hours

  • we will look at hundreds of graphs, lots of mathematical formula

  • and enough of that crap.

  • A system is not just a collection of random things;

  • it is an interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized

  • in a way that achieves something,

  • consisting of component parts, interconnections, function or purpose.

  • For now, it will suffice to see systems as a set of components,

  • interconnected in such a way that their relationship

  • is greater than the sum of the parts.

  • Central to understanding systems,

  • especially in understanding symbiotic relationships,

  • is the concept of feedback.

  • Complex systems have feedback loops

  • that allow for self-renewal and self-organization,

  • such as when you heal from a cut or recover from being sick

  • or observe the self-organizing complexity of insects and plants

  • or the cycle of bird migrations around the planet.

  • Feedback is a loop where information of some kind

  • is fed back into the system itself, whether it's data in a computer,

  • consensus from a population or a change in the temperature,

  • it is the way a system responds to its environment.

  • So systems-thinking is the process of understanding

  • how component parts relate to each other within the whole.

  • Now, in nature, systems-thinking examples include ecosystems

  • in which various elements such as air, water, plants, animals,

  • interact to achieve equilibrium with the environment,

  • hence achieving stasis within the Earth system itself.

  • Systems are not just physical,

  • they can also be comprised of beliefs and political ideologies

  • or modes of social organization, such as monetary structures,

  • systems within systems, both physical and intellectual,

  • all interacting with each other, all at the same time.

  • By taking this view, we can study the behavior of systems

  • to know if the outcomes are desired or harmful,

  • which brings us to Part two: 'Systems Behavior'

  • Let's take a look at an example.

  • Here's something I think most of you are familiar with:

  • that wonderful toy that we call a Slinky.

  • Yes, the Slinky holds the understanding to a complex

  • and elegant system we call a Natural Law/Resource-Based Economy.

  • If you hold the Slinky in the palm of your hand, nothing happens.

  • If you hold the slinky by one end, it starts to bounce up and down;

  • this is a great example of systems behavior.

  • And whether you move the Slinky from one hand to the other,

  • or throw it back at your friend in frustration, the question to pose is this

  • "What made the Slinky bounce up and down, or walk down steps?"

  • Or said another way "What causes the resulting behavior?"

  • Now, some of you may be figuring out answers like

  • "The person's hands did" or "Gravity".

  • Whereas those answers may seem logical on the surface,

  • the answer is actually much more simple.

  • The answer lies within the system that we call a Slinky itself;

  • the hands that manipulate it suppress or release some behavior

  • that is latent within the structure of the spring.

  • This is a central insight into systems theory

  • and understanding our world through this system's lens.

  • Now, we tend not to see in this way;

  • instead, we focus on the resulting behavior, such as crime,

  • as the problem itself:

  • fighting crime, fighting the whole list of causes,

  • (we can go down the list for quite a while),

  • rather than understanding such outcomes as latent behavior

  • inherent in system structure.

  • When it comes to Slinkys, system behavior is easy enough to understand,

  • but when it comes to economics, class, nations or other established systems,

  • it's not so simple.

  • But once we see that there is relationship between structure and behavior,

  • we can begin to understand how systems work,

  • how some work well and how others do not work well at all,

  • manifesting latent behaviors inherent to those systems,

  • each producing different outcomes in the social landscape.

  • So, let's look at some parts of our current social structure,

  • using the lens of systems-thinking.

  • Some things that come to light when taking on this worldview are:

  • political leaders do not cause recessions or economic booms;

  • ups and downs are inherent in the structure of the market-economy itself.

  • Competitors rarely cause a company to lose market share;

  • the losing company creates its losses through its own business policies,

  • while the competitor is there to scoop up the advantage.

  • Oil-exporting nations are not solely responsible for oil-price increases;

  • price spikes and economic chaos are results from oil-importing nations

  • building economies that are vulnerable to supply interruptions.

  • The flu virus does not attack you;

  • rather, you set up the conditions for it to flourish within you.

  • And as a final example, criminal behavior:

  • locking people up who are deemed criminal only swells prison populations;

  • it does not address what is causing the behavior in the first place.

  • Statements like these can seem unsettling, for they start to shift the focus

  • from the resulting behavior to the system structure itself,

  • and you're going to come up against this when you talk about the Movement to people.

  • Now, there are many ways to see the world.

  • So much of what we think about along the lines

  • uses language that only lives in the abstract,

  • without having a referent back to the physical life system,

  • whereas our ability to observe, test, collect feedback and try again

  • has brought us out of the dark ages to where we are today.

  • And this is why The Zeitgeist Movement is interested

  • in the scientific method, as applied to our sustainability as a species.

  • When you look through the lens of a systems worldview,

  • the method of science is not restricted in its application

  • to the physical world; it can also be applied to our social systems,

  • to our economics, to our educational system,

  • and as a method of understanding human behavior. And in turn,

  • there is a natural feedback system built into the physical reality

  • which allows this method to adjust, adapt and change as needed,

  • and this is what we mean by emergent.

  • Now, I want to distinguish between the scientific method

  • and the science industry. Some people have trust issues with science,

  • and when you look into what people don't trust,

  • it's not really science, as in the scientific method they don't trust,

  • but rather the existing science industry.

  • Our science industry has certainly been corrupted through the mechanism

  • of profit incentive, where a corporation might need to force results

  • that enhance the selling of their product.

  • In a 2012 publication from the UCS

  • entitled 'Heads They Win, Tails We Lose',

  • it outlines how corporations corrupt science

  • through the use of financial pressure,

  • through downplaying evidence and exaggerating uncertainty,

  • corrupting advisory panels and through their lobbying.

  • In contrast, a resource-based model simply values data that is proven,

  • before implementing solutions based on that data.

  • This sets up scientists to truly be able to value the scientific method

  • and embrace information that might make their hypothesis wrong,

  • because it serves a greater purpose,

  • allowing us a more accurate understanding of our world.

  • What starts to develop, as we follow this train of thought,

  • is that our relationship to the world that sustains us

  • is a technical relationship. You will see the term technical

  • used as synonymous with scientific in our materials;

  • this is better to express the causal nature of existing phenomena

  • and how things are interrelated.

  • You could look at this as spiritual

  • since the notion of being in harmony with nature or in balance

  • is fundamental to many of the world's religions.

  • And the point is that there is a real technical relationship

  • between us and all the other sub-systems nested within each other

  • as part of the full Earth system.

  • Part three: 'Economics and Life Need'

  • With the lens of a systems worldview starting to take shape,

  • we can now consider some economic variables, starting with life need.

  • What is human need or life need?

  • The best way I've heard life need expressed

  • is 'that without which life capacity is reduced'.

  • I like this definition, since it cuts out a lot of the cultural distortions

  • about what our life needs are.

  • Need is expressed here as distinct from human wants,

  • which relate to the conditioning of your cultural environment,

  • but not directly related to life need.

  • From a technical or scientific standpoint, there is a spectrum of life need

  • common to all living human systems on the planet,

  • regardless of race, creed, nation, religion or social class.

  • These needs are noted as atmospheric, physiological,

  • shelter, environmental, social and vocational.

  • Now these are broad distinctions, which contain

  • the life-ground attributes of clean air, nutrition, water,

  • social interaction and education.

  • This is the empirical life-ground that is shared by every human being.

  • When it comes to what we believe about meeting needs,

  • what is generally accepted today is that monetary economics

  • and the free market are the pinnacle of social organization,

  • for bringing prosperity to the masses.

  • Well, in order to claim that title from a system's view,

  • you have to account for the whole system.

  • If we assess what is happening in the current structure,

  • almost half the world, which is over three billion people,

  • live on less than $2.50 a day

  • as total purchasing power for their life need.

  • And if we climb up the ladder just a little ways, we find

  • that 80% of the world's population lives on less than $10 a day.

  • So, I think we can cut the crap about market economics being the pinnacle;

  • it's nothing more than an assumption at this point.

  • The question we need to ask is

  • "What outcome do we want from our socioeconomic system

  • if the goal is to meet our life needs in the most sustainable way?"

  • Well, let's look at this word socioeconomic a little closer,

  • since I keep using it to refer to a type of system.

  • Now, remember I'm using old language to express non-linear relationships.

  • So, if we look at the main component of this word,

  • let's define it from a technical perspective,

  • which is, economics derives from Greek to mean 'management of a household',

  • with the aim of an economy to actually economize.

  • To economize is to conserve; to conserve is to create efficiency.

  • And what is efficiency? Efficiency is absence of waste.

  • Keep that in mind as I describe attributes of this structure.

  • What is referred to as the efficiency mechanism

  • is inherent throughout a systems approach to social organization.

  • When we consider our relationship to the larger environment,

  • the economic organization of interdependent, living systems (us),

  • is through a physical referent to the largest order, closed system

  • that contains our life need.

  • In this regard, we refer to the Earth as an essentially closed system,

  • since it contains life capacity within its biosphere.

  • This is why we refer to the Earth so much;

  • it's not just a pretty unifying symbol, it is a physical starting point;

  • and from this logic, we see how a very different economic system would result.

  • We are living systems, in constant exchange with life resource

  • from an essentially finite Earth.

  • This is the fundamental connection of the human species,

  • and our place in the physical world confirms

  • that we are not separate entities in any respect.

  • We must arrive at a working social model

  • based on this logic, if we expect to survive.

  • Now, there are many economic components of a Natural Law model,

  • that I don't have time for today,

  • so I'm only going to touch on three broad components

  • which become self-evident in regards to responsible decision-making.

  • And these are: 'Resource Accounting', 'Dynamic Equilibrium' and 'Strategic Design'.

  • We have to account for what there is,

  • while taking into account renewal attributes of our resources that we consume

  • and then being strategic in our designs to maximize efficiency.

  • Again, the efficiency mechanism is a core attribute to these components;

  • remember, it's not a separate thing, which can be confusing

  • if you're looking at this from a linear perspective.

  • In regards to accounting, our natural resources and ecosystems

  • are spread throughout the globe, and they work together as a whole Earth system.

  • Each resource and species has a function in preservation,

  • recycling and in regeneration of life

  • and are accounted for as system components in a Natural Law model.

  • We must organize and account for what we have available,

  • and this can be done through scanning and surveying our habitat.

  • Proper economic resource allocation can't really be made

  • unless we have a clear understanding of what we have and where it is.

  • It might seem fanciful to have a survey of the world's resources

  • as part of a global resource-management system,

  • and in the current economic climate, I agree with you.

  • But the reality is that we're doing much of this right now.

  • Now, it's not integrated, for there's no reason to do so;

  • we live in a world of patents and secrets and market-shares and copyrights.

  • The cooperation needed to create this kind of global system

  • would undermine the need for a monetary system altogether,

  • and it's partly why it's not done.

  • The point here is our ability to measure and survey our world

  • is a current technical reality, happening right now.

  • With a quick Internet search, it's easy to find other organizations

  • that collect data about our physical world. These groups are not integrated,

  • but they're still examples of the systems model

  • when it comes to surveying, accounting and analysis.

  • Once we collect data from our survey mechanism,

  • we need to rate each source based on its renewability,

  • the pollution output and everything that factors in,

  • in order to weigh the degree of sustainability.

  • This compiling would be done through advanced computer systems,

  • since the amount of data to deal with is just far too immense

  • and can only be managed through AI systems.

  • Accounting is only a first step;

  • we need to track the rates of change and regeneration, where they apply.

  • This is a simplified example of equilibrium:

  • showing water level in a container, if the inflow equals the outflow,

  • the water level remains consistent and is in a state of equilibrium.

  • Similarly, we have resource inflows into our economic system.

  • There is a stock of materials and goods,

  • and there are outputs to the production and distribution of those goods

  • and is hence a core component of a Natural Law economy.

  • A classic example of disregard

  • for dynamic equilibrium today is deforestation.

  • Trees have a natural life cycle, and if our use of wood

  • exceeds the rates of regeneration, which is of course what we have today,

  • we have a problem, for it is unsustainable.

  • This logic applies to all systems and not just our forests;

  • it applies to how we organize our agriculture, food production, traffic systems

  • and going in for the reduction of pollution outputs and fuel consumption,

  • not to mention the utter waste of human life sitting here in LA traffic,

  • and also applies to the use of our oceans and sustaining our habitats.

  • You can even use this principle when you track groundwater.

  • Observing the dynamic equilibrium of all systems

  • is inherent in a Natural Law economy.

  • Remember, the current monetary model requires as much consumption as possible

  • to keep the growing population employed and the market economy operational.

  • When accounting for life capacity and systems that produce life need,

  • what we're doing now is complete ecocide.

  • If efficiency is absence of waste,

  • then inefficiency could not be more fully realized than what we have today.

  • And this leads us to strategic design.

  • As we move away from market inefficiency, things will be designed to last.

  • The multiplicity of goods, the stratification of quality,

  • the planned or intrinsic obsolescence would no longer be necessary,

  • since consumption would no longer be the driver of economic activity.

  • It is optimum efficiency, conservation, preservation

  • through designing everything to be the best that it can be

  • and last as long as it can,

  • producing what is the most technically correct for any given application or need.

  • The waste reduction alone, from producing only the best that is needed,

  • without multiplicity, without stratification or the breakdown of goods,

  • would be immense, along with recycling, updating

  • and the longevity designed into the products that we use.

  • This would be part of the ongoing efficiency mechanism.

  • In the time I have left, I want to touch on one more

  • often misunderstood aspect of this model:

  • governance. If there was ever a sticky topic, this would be it.

  • Fortunately, it's not that complicated, and here's why:

  • governance is not to be confused with what we call 'government'.

  • Politics, opinion, private-interest, lobbying and popular vote

  • are used in the process of making policy, enforcing laws

  • through penal action or imposed restriction, such as imprisonment.

  • Today, we control human behavior through the enactment of laws,

  • without considering the physical or social conditions

  • responsible for producing that aberrant behavior in the first place.

  • Usually, we project a right or wrong value-judgement onto the offending party,

  • whether a political leader, a corporation, or another country,

  • and we call that the source of the corruption.

  • A systems approach to governance has nothing to do with centralized power,

  • or some mystery group of evil men behind a curtain,

  • while the rest of us are enslaved. Such statements are better suited

  • as an accurate metaphor for the system that we live in today.

  • Rather, governance refers to processes that ensure the effective management

  • of a project, organization or system.

  • Which processes? Those that are relevant to life need.

  • And what is life need? That without which life capacity is reduced,

  • which brings us back to the spectrum of human needs,

  • which all have a physical referent back to the environment.

  • Next, to ensure effective management,

  • that is, to achieve our goals in the most efficient manner possible,

  • using the best methods we have, which is currently the method of science.

  • What projects?

  • Those systems that produce the goods and services that we need.

  • What organization? That would be our social organization.

  • And which system? That is the socioeconomic system

  • that encompasses all of these attributes.

  • Of course whatever path unfolds between a monetary system

  • and a Natural Law economy will, most likely,

  • involve the need for government and law as we know it.

  • But, as new systems are implemented and the production of goods are automated,

  • and as we start meeting the needs of the human population,

  • you will see a drastic reduction in violence

  • and hence the need for government and laws and enforcement

  • will diminish over time.

  • There is a hierarchy in natural systems,

  • which is quite different from the idea the word conjures up for most of us,

  • where one person or group has power over another.

  • My goal here is to put the concept of hierarchy into context.

  • Here's a simple example, starting with a photo of a tree;

  • or better said, it's a representation of a system that we refer to as tree.

  • There is diversity in the branches, which are a subsystems to the tree,

  • and the subsystem of the roots also has multiple functions

  • for nutrients and moisture needs:

  • all working together as interdependent and interconnected systems:

  • no voting, no hiring, no firing, no warfare,

  • all components getting what they need, but none with power over the other.

  • This is taken from the National Park Service here in the United States.

  • Here we have a model

  • of systems that make up the Mojave Desert here in California.

  • And to take hierarchy to the next level of complexity,

  • to break this down so it's a little easier to understand:

  • you start at the top, and you start with your overall system,

  • your overall framework. Then things break down and are separated out

  • into the main components of the system,

  • each one broken down into its component parts.

  • And then, detailed models consisting of the elements

  • are drawn up, and this forms a hierarchy.

  • This is looking at a more complex version of hierarchy,

  • but it's hierarchy nonetheless, in a natural system.

  • And for a modern-day example of a hierarchical structure

  • that works as an extraordinary system, look no further than the Internet.

  • Every computer that is connected to the Internet is part of a network,

  • and while it's useful to have simple diagrams like this

  • showing the relationships, rest assured when you look

  • at the totality of the Internet system, it is a dynamic, complex

  • and resilient system.

  • Of course, we need to put this into context, as to how people would relate to each other,

  • since that's the big fear about all this is, right? Who's going to be telling you what to do?

  • This fear shows the social aberrancy that gets reinforced in a system

  • where it's hard to trust anyone.

  • The good news is that you get to decide what interests you.

  • This may come as a surprise, because

  • many of us are not prepared for the liberating responsibility,

  • since we've been robbed of our ability to contribute

  • by being dumbed-down to workers and consumers

  • and saddled by the burdens of debt and stresses of economic inequality.

  • The social structure of a Natural Law economy is a collaborative one,

  • where people contribute based on their interests

  • and are given the skills to do so through the learning process,

  • where the sharing of ideas and information is not restricted through monetary exchange.

  • This is happening right now through the Internet revolution:

  • open source projects, along with countless hours of volunteering

  • done by people worldwide who are not in it for themselves.

  • There is plenty of research that shows

  • how higher levels of happiness and innovation relate to economic equality,

  • and how natural it is for humans to cooperate and contribute

  • outside of the narrow self-interest that we call the profit incentive.

  • Things get done through a cooperative structure

  • known as interdisciplinary teams.

  • Such teams are a collaboration between different disciplines, areas of study,

  • to achieve innovative solutions during the creation process.

  • New tools allow large groups to collaborate in innovative ways

  • by taking advantage of non-financial motivations

  • and by allowing for differing levels of contribution,

  • based on the state of technology, skill-sets and knowledge.

  • The connection of these teams and the sharing of knowledge

  • create a unifying data set, where the component innovations of everyone

  • add to the quality of life for everyone.

  • In this model, the market is not the exchange of multiplication of money;

  • the real market becomes the market of ideas,

  • built upon through coordinated teams and skills,

  • each adding to the body of knowledge of the whole and by cooperating with each other

  • rather than competing from self-interest.

  • Remember, behavior is related to the structure when looking at systems.

  • And lastly, there is no more "Who makes the decisions?"

  • Decisions are arrived at through feedback, which we covered earlier,

  • based upon current knowledge, the introduction of newer technologies,

  • the Earth's carrying capacity. A systems approach to problem-solving

  • makes use of interdisciplinary teams, aided by computer technology,

  • which provide feedback from the environment, in order to arrive

  • at the best possible decisions and solutions at that time.

  • To quote Jacque Fresco of The Venus Project,

  • "The design must be based on the carrying capacity of the planet,

  • its resources, and the needs of its inhabitants.

  • To sustain our civilization, we must coordinate advanced technology

  • and available resources with a humane systems approach."

  • In the broad view, our public health is the final measure,

  • along with the intelligent management of the Earth,

  • which provides the core resources that we need,

  • coupled with social conditions necessary for a healthy society,

  • a society based on concerns, designs, in an access abundance

  • and healthy environment, thereby encouraging a new social value,

  • where human needs are met, the mechanism of differential advantage removed,

  • and incentive is created out of the knowing that the integrity of the social system

  • is directly related to your own personal integrity.

  • Our world has become more complex.

  • Our traditional methods of problem-solving

  • through politics and monetary economics are obsolete,

  • and due to the increasing complexity of our world needs

  • and the problems our lifestyles generate,

  • it is necessary that we strive for a holistic approach to managing our environment.

  • Systems-thinking makes it possible for us to update, change and adapt

  • and ultimately, be an emergent society. Through this lens,

  • we have a wider range of choices before us for what it means to be sustainable

  • and allowing us to seek new opportunities to problem resolution

  • for all humankind.

  • Please join the Movement, and I thank you for your time.

  • [Applause]

  • The Zeitgeist Movement - www.thezeitgeistmovement. com

Zeitgeist Day 2013 - 'Thinking in Systems' - Jason Lord

字幕與單字

單字即點即查 點擊單字可以查詢單字解釋

B1 中級 美國腔

2013年Zeitgeist Day:傑森-洛德|"系統思維"[11的第6部分] (Zeitgeist Day 2013: Jason Lord | "Thinking in Systems" [Part 6 of 11])

  • 20 4
    王惟惟 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
影片單字