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  • Way back in October, 1983, a young Hong Kong broker was working one Saturday

    回到1983年十月的一個星期六,一個年輕的香港證券交易員正工作著,

  • when his boss rushed through, yelling at everyone to buy Hong Kong dollars.

    直到他的老闆衝進來,大吼著要所有的交易員去買港幣

  • Within hours, the authorities pegged the currency to the US dollar

    在幾個小時之內,相關當局將港元與美金掛勾

  • at a tiny profit for those local currency holders.

    並打著「貨幣持有人利益緊張」的號旗

  • Then and since, Hong Kong dollars weakness has typically been related to fears about its relations with China.

    從此以後,港幣的弱點一直都在懼怕和中國的關係上擺盪

  • But now the currency is nearing its weakest point in a decade,

    但如今,港幣幣值處於十年之中最低點,

  • and for once, the city's future is not the reason.

    而這次卻不能怪在中國頭上

  • The Hong Kong dollar slide is really a side effect of years of worldwide easy money.

    港幣的跌落其實是多年來寬鬆貨幣政策的副作用

  • The territory's in the unique position of having monetary policy

    香港領土處於與美國掛勾(聯繫匯率制度)的貨幣政策

  • pegged to the US and its future prospects tied to China.

    以及和中國前景緊張的獨特地位。

  • Over the past decade, those two factors have produced a massive boom and several bubbles.

    在過去的十年中,這兩個因素已經造成了一次經濟起飛和幾次的泡沫危機

  • Hong Kong's position as the world's most expensive property market,

    香港同時也是世界上最昂貴的房產市場,

  • where car parks sell for three billion dollars, is just one example.

    舉其中一個例子:光是停車場就可以上看三十億美元

  • Now with China slowing and the US raising rates,

    現在隨著中國的放緩,和美國的上升匯率

  • this, in theory, should have trapped the city between a rock and a hard place.

    這個情況,理論上,應該讓這城市陷入左右為難

  • But that hasn't happened because so much money is still available

    但這並未發生,因為市場上還有巨額的流動現金

  • that its the banks haven't needed to follow

    也就是說銀行還未跟隨

  • the Hong Kong monetary authority in tracking US rate rises.

    香港貨幣當局,緊追上漲的美元

  • On Monday, the gap between three-month money in the US

    在週一,在美國貨幣

  • and its Hong Kong equipment hit the widest point since the aftermath of Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.

    和香港貨幣出現了在2008年雷曼兄弟倒閉後最大的落差,

  • Also on Monday, the US dollar traded above 7.82 Hong Kong dollars for only the third time in ten years.

    同樣在星期一,外匯儲備資產總額達到相當於香港流通貨幣7.82多,十年以來的第三次

  • The question now is how the HKMA will manage to defense the peg

    現在的問題是香港金管局將會如何捍衛和美元的聯繫匯率制度

  • if the currency nears the weaker edge of its permitted range between 7.75 and 7.85.

    如果匯率一直遊走在弱方兌換保證的極限:7.75到7.85

  • With four hundred billion US dollars in reserves,

    有著四千億的外匯儲備資產,

  • it has to funds available and few, if any, expect breaking the peg.

    香港必須保持流動的資本,畢竟極少數會希望破壞聯繫匯率制度

  • The HKMA does not even have to wait until the limit is breached to sell dollars,

    金管局甚至不必等到限價就能賣掉美元,

  • and it might do so soon if it feels that will help ease market jitters.

    而且它也許很快就會這麼做,如果此舉能幫助穩定市場動盪

  • But the real problem here is those market themselves.

    但真正的問題在於市場本身:

  • Years of easy money risk having bred complacency.

    多年的寬鬆貨幣風險已經孵育了自滿

  • The weak side of the peg has not been tested since 2005 either.

    聯繫匯率政策的脆弱程度自從2005年以後就沒有受過考驗

  • Back in 1983, Hong Kong's traders were used to uncertainty and expensive money.

    在1983年的時候,香港的交易戶很習慣於市場的不確定性和昂貴的貨幣

  • Those today are not, but they might wanna think about what that looks like.

    而今日的交易戶則否,但他們應該要開始想想那會是什麼樣子了

Way back in October, 1983, a young Hong Kong broker was working one Saturday

回到1983年十月的一個星期六,一個年輕的香港證券交易員正工作著,

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