Name: 港元逼近10年低點｜短線觀點 (Hong Kong dollar nears 10-year low | Short View)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T07:00:38.000Z
Duration: 2 min 7 s

Way back in October, 1983, a young Hong Kong broker was working one Saturday

回到1983年十月的一個星期六，一個年輕的香港證券交易員正工作著，

分詞構句

when his boss rushed through, yelling at everyone to buy Hong Kong dollars.

直到他的老闆衝進來，大吼著要所有的交易員去買港幣

Within hours, the authorities pegged the currency to the US dollar

在幾個小時之內，相關當局將港元與美金掛勾

at a tiny profit for those local currency holders.

並打著「貨幣持有人利益緊張」的號旗

Then and since, Hong Kong dollars weakness has typically been related to fears about its relations with China.

從此以後，港幣的弱點一直都在懼怕和中國的關係上擺盪

But now the currency is nearing its weakest point in a decade,

但如今，港幣幣值處於十年之中最低點，

and for once, the city's future is not the reason.

The Hong Kong dollar slide is really a side effect of years of worldwide easy money.

港幣的跌落其實是多年來寬鬆貨幣政策的副作用

The territory's in the unique position of having monetary policy

香港領土處於與美國掛勾（聯繫匯率制度）的貨幣政策

pegged to the US and its future prospects tied to China.

以及和中國前景緊張的獨特地位。

Over the past decade, those two factors have produced a massive boom and several bubbles.

在過去的十年中，這兩個因素已經造成了一次經濟起飛和幾次的泡沫危機

Hong Kong's position as the world's most expensive property market,

香港同時也是世界上最昂貴的房產市場，

where car parks sell for three billion dollars, is just one example.

舉其中一個例子：光是停車場就可以上看三十億美元

Now with China slowing and the US raising rates,

現在隨著中國的放緩，和美國的上升匯率

this, in theory, should have trapped the city between a rock and a hard place.

這個情況，理論上，應該讓這城市陷入左右為難

But that hasn't happened because so much money is still available

但這並未發生，因為市場上還有巨額的流動現金

that its the banks haven't needed to follow

the Hong Kong monetary authority in tracking US rate rises.

香港貨幣當局，緊追上漲的美元

On Monday, the gap between three-month money in the US

and its Hong Kong equipment hit the widest point since the aftermath of Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.

和香港貨幣出現了在2008年雷曼兄弟倒閉後最大的落差，

Also on Monday, the US dollar traded above 7.82 Hong Kong dollars for only the third time in ten years.

同樣在星期一，外匯儲備資產總額達到相當於香港流通貨幣7.82多，十年以來的第三次

The question now is how the HKMA will manage to defense the peg

現在的問題是香港金管局將會如何捍衛和美元的聯繫匯率制度

if the currency nears the weaker edge of its permitted range between 7.75 and 7.85.

如果匯率一直遊走在弱方兌換保證的極限：7.75到7.85

With four hundred billion US dollars in reserves,

it has to funds available and few, if any, expect breaking the peg.

香港必須保持流動的資本，畢竟極少數會希望破壞聯繫匯率制度

The HKMA does not even have to wait until the limit is breached to sell dollars,

金管局甚至不必等到限價就能賣掉美元，

and it might do so soon if it feels that will help ease market jitters.

而且它也許很快就會這麼做，如果此舉能幫助穩定市場動盪

But the real problem here is those market themselves.

Years of easy money risk having bred complacency.

多年的寬鬆貨幣風險已經孵育了自滿

The weak side of the peg has not been tested since 2005 either.

聯繫匯率政策的脆弱程度自從2005年以後就沒有受過考驗

Back in 1983, Hong Kong's traders were used to uncertainty and expensive money.

在1983年的時候，香港的交易戶很習慣於市場的不確定性和昂貴的貨幣

Those today are not, but they might wanna think about what that looks like.

而今日的交易戶則否，但他們應該要開始想想那會是什麼樣子了