Name: 這個≠那個 (This ≠ That)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:58:41.000Z
Duration: 3 min 45 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

Have you ever wondered how related the number of people

基礎被動語態

to how many Nicolas Cage films are released at the same year?

Turns out the 66.6%  correlation between the two

or how about the fact that there is 99.26% correlation between the divorce rate in Maine

or %99.79 correlation between spending on science, space and technology

and the number of suicides by hanging, strangulation and suffocation.

Just because there is a correlation between two variables doesn't mean

"People who have more sex make the most money."

Unfortunately "this" does not always equal "that".

Even though it may look like it cheese consumption probably isn't related to

how many people died tangled in their bedsheets.

Numerous studies found that menopausal women taking hormone replacement therapy

had a lower than average incidence of heart disease.

Leading doctors to believe that hormone replacement could protect against heart disease.

However when women underwent randomized controlled trials

they found that hormone replacement therapy actually increased the risk of heart disease.

When the original data was finally reanalysed, it was found that

women who took the therapy were of a higher socio-economic group

This was the real cause behind decreased risk of heart disease.

Another case found that those  who used nightlights as a kid were more likely to develop myopia.

But there is actually strong link between parenatal myopia

and the development of child myopia so in reality myopic parents simply more likely

to leave light on in their child's bedroom.

These are examples of lurking variable where A does not cause B

It's a little like taking people who have lung cancer

and thinking "Hey, they all carrying lighters in their pockets

While not realizing that smoking is the confounding variable.

And scientists worked hard in their studies to try avoid this.

But it gets worse when popular media takes advantage of these potentially coincidental correlations.

And one study about chocolate weight-loss connection was actually designed as

a way to expose how science reporting can be sensationalized.

A science writer with a PhD in Microbiology ran a real clinical trial

where participants were assigned to three groups.

A low carb diet, a low carb diet plus a 1.5 ounce chocolate bar

and the group that maintains their regular diet.

At the end of three weeks, the chocolate group did lose the most weight

but the journalists consciously used terrible science.

He used 15 participants and measured 18 different measurements including weight loss

cholesteral, sleep quality, blood pressure, well-being etc

and when you use small group of people and measure a large number of things

you're pretty much guaranteed to get a statistically significant results

which Veritasium has an amazing video on here if you wanna check out.

The result could have easily been something different

such as chocolate correlates to lower blood pressure.

If the study had been peer-reviewed by other researchers

so instead he submitted it to a journal for a fee 600 Euros

He then sent out a press release to dozens of the media publications

and very quickly getting slim by chocolate was front page news.

With that in mind however we can't dismiss correlation entirely.

Correlative evidence is an essential part of science.

Double-blind studies are not always possible or ethical to run

often leaving correlation is the best evidence available.

When every possible causative relationship is systematically explored

correlation can be use as a powerful tool for assessing cause and effect relationships

Big thanks to Tyler Vigen for providing his charts on this interesting correlations.

You can check out his website or his book "Spurious Correlations" for more peculiar examples

and subscribe for more weekly science videos every Thursday.