to happen with our economy?  What’s going to happen with sales the next six months?

我們的經濟會發生什麼？ 未來半年的銷售情況會怎樣？

 Will China be strong?  Will you be strong?  What'll happen with housing? The problem

中國會強大嗎？ 你會強大嗎？ 房產會怎麼樣？問題是

with the uncertainty is it keeps you frozen.  It doesn't let you move forward.  It doesn't

與不確定性是它讓你凍結。 它不會讓你前進。 它不

give you any confidence.  So in an uncertain world, I have to ask myself, “What am I

給你任何信心。 所以在一個不確定的世界裡，我必須問自己："我是什麼？

certain about?  Am I certain of nothing?”

確定什麼？ 我什麼都不確定嗎？"

And the answer is you can be certain about so much, it’s unbelievable.  For example,

而答案是，你可以確定的東西太多，令人難以置信。 比如說：

right now it’s winter.  I’m certain it'll be spring followed by summer.  By the way,

現在是冬天。 我確定它'會是春天，然後是夏天。 對了

I had that certainty because there is a science of cycles; there’s over 300 known cycles

我之所以有這種把握，是因為有一門週期的科學，已知的週期有300多個。

- weather cycles, business cycles, biological cycles, that give you a complete handle and

- 天氣週期、商業週期、生物週期，讓你全面掌握並

accurate forecast of the future.

對未來的準確預測。

As a matter of fact economists have been trained in the science of cycles.  But if you noticed

事實上，經濟學家一直在接受週期科學的訓練。 但如果你注意到

the economists have been really wrong lately.  Why have they been so wrong?  They’re

經濟學家們最近真的錯了。 為什麼他們會錯得這麼離譜？ 他們

using the science of cycles.  After all, Warren Buffett is the richest guy in the world

利用科學的週期。 畢竟，巴菲特是世界上最富有的人。

because of the science of cycles.  He knows when the stock market goes up; he’s going

因為週期的科學。 他知道股市什麼時候漲，他就什麼時候漲。

to sell and when it goes down he’s going to buy, which is probably the opposite of

賣出，而當它下跌時，他要買入，這可能是相反的。

most other people.  That’s why he’s rich.

其他大多數人。 這就是為什麼他有錢。

So, is there another kind of change, you have to ask yourself.  And the answer is yes.

那麼，有沒有另一種改變，你要問自己。 而答案是肯定的。

 And I call it linear change.  Unlike cyclical change, when linear change hits we’re not

而我把它叫做線性變化。 與週期性變化不同的是，當線性變化來臨的時候，我們並不... ...

going back. Once you got a smartphone, you're not going back to a dumb phone.  Once the

回去。一旦你有了智能手機，你'就不會再回到啞巴手機了。 一旦

people in China parked their bicycle and get a car, they're not going to say, gee, lets

在中國，人們停放他們的自行車，並得到一個汽車，他們'不會說，哎呀，讓我們。

get rid of the car and go back to the bike.  Once people in India get refrigeration for

擺脫汽車，回到自行車上。 一旦人們在印度得到製冷的

their homes, they’re not going to say we don’t need refrigeration.  Now these are

他們的家，他們不會說 我們不需要製冷。 現在這些是

one way - they’re not cycles - one-way linear changes that had profound and amazingly predictable

單向的--它們不是週期性的--單向的線性變化，有深遠的、驚人的可預見性的

consequences.

後果。

So in a world of uncertainty, I have to ask am I certain of anything and create a list

所以在這個充滿不確定性的世界裡，我必須問我是否有把握，並建立一個清單。

of certainty.  The reason is because strategy based on uncertainty has high risk.  Strategy

的確定性。 因為基於不確定性的戰略具有高風險。 戰略

based on certainty has low risk and high reward.  So we are bombarded with all of this uncertainty.

基於確定性的低風險高回報。 所以，我們被這些不確定性所轟炸。

 Create a list of things that you can be absolutely certain about.  Lets give you

創建一個你可以絕對確定的事情清單。 讓我們給你

a technological certainty as a good example.  Let’s take the iPhone.  How about the

一個技術上的必然性作為一個很好的例子。 就拿iPhone來說吧。 怎麼樣？

next iPhone?  I know we just got our new one but what about the next one?  Could you

下一部iPhone？ 我知道我們剛買了新機，但下一部呢？ 你能

say anything about that?  Do you know anything about that?  Hey, no one’s left that in

說什麼呢？ 你知道什麼嗎？ 嘿，沒有人離開，在

the bar lately.

吧最近。

And the answer is, you know all about the next iPhone.  For example, will it have a

而答案是，你對下一款iPhone都知道。 比如，它會不會有一個

faster processing chip in it than the current one?  And the answer is of course it will.

裡面的處理芯片比現在的更快？ 答案是當然會。

 Are you certain?  Yeah, been doing that with technology for 40 years; it’s call

你確定嗎？ 是的，40年來一直在做這個技術，這叫做

Moore’s law.  We have 3G wireless now; we're getting 4G wireless.  Is that it?  Or

摩爾定律。 我們現在有了3G無線，我們'要用4G無線了。 是這樣嗎？ 還是

might you be able to predict what they’ll call the next one?  The answer is, of course;

你是否可以預測他們會叫下一個什麼？ 答案是，當然可以。

it'll be 5G, followed by 6G.  I’ve been tracking that out for over 30 years.

它'會是5G，然後是6G。 我已經追蹤了30多年了。

It’s fully predictable on a curve.  You can just see it right there.  And can we

它是完全可以預測的曲線。 你可以看到它就在那裡。 我們可以

get more in that device or is it full?  Can’t get anymore?  And the answer is of course,

在該設備中得到更多還是滿了？ 拿不到了嗎？ 答案當然是。

we can store more in that device; it’s on a similar curve to Moore’s law going up

我們可以在該設備中存儲更多的東西；它的曲線類似於摩爾定律的上升曲線。

like this.  Very predictable.  So if you look at all the things that you can be certain

像這樣。 很有預見性。 所以，如果你看看所有的事情，你可以肯定的是

about, you will find amazing possibilities and amazing opportunities as you look at the

左右，你會發現驚人的可能性和驚人的機會，因為你看的是

future.

未來。

Spend an hour a week unplugging from the present.  Yeah, why?  Because it's more related to

每週花一個小時的時間從現在的生活中解脫出來。 是啊，為什麼？ 因為它更關係到

your past than your future.  You know there's a reason your windshield is bigger than your

你的過去比你的未來。 你知道你的擋風玻璃比你的大是有原因的。

rearview mirror.  Hey, let's start looking ahead a little bit.  The more you look, the

後視鏡。 嘿，讓我們開始向前看一點。 你看的越多

more you see.  The future is more visible than you might expect.  Make a list, not

你看到的更多。 未來比你想象的更可見。 列一個清單，而不是

of the things you’re uncertain about, but the things you are certain about.  First

的事情，但你確定的事情。 首先

of all, the cycles.  What are the cycles that we know?  What are the cycles, the sales

的週期。 我們知道的週期是什麼？ 什麼是週期，銷售

cycles, the business cycles.

週期，商業週期。

By the way if there’s a sales cycle, hint don’t abide by it.  I always go the opposite

對了如果有銷售週期，提示不要遵守。 我總是反其道而行之

of the sale cycle because I want to have the deal closed before the cycle begins, but that

因為我想在週期開始前就完成交易，但這也是我的目標。

just me.  Anyway take a look at the cycles.  Make a list of those things.  We know when

只是我。 總之看一下週期。 把這些東西列出來。 我們知道，當

Father’s Day will be, we know when Christmas will be, we know when the next election will

我們知道父親節是什麼時候，我們知道聖誕節是什麼時候，我們知道下一次選舉是什麼時候。

be.  Makes list of all the things that you know and look at the problems and predictable

是。 把所有你知道的事情列出來，看看問題和可預見的。

opportunities.

機會。

Secondly, look at the certainties of linear changes.  What are those major linear changes

第二，看線性變化的確定性。 那些重大的線性變化是什麼

that are taking place right now?  And make sure you notice them and pay attention to

正在發生的事情？ 並確保你注意到他們，並注意到。

them.  For example, your main computer is becoming what?  It’s your smartphone.  And

他們。 例如，你的主電腦正在變成什麼？ 是你的智能手機。 而且

just recently the Chinese have been able to make a smartphone at the same cost as a dumb

最近，中國人已經能夠製造出一款成本與啞巴一樣的智能手機了

phone.  Why would you want to make dumb phones, when a smart phone is Internet, it’s a camera,

的手機。 為什麼要做啞巴手機，智能手機就是互聯網，就是攝像頭。

it’s photography, it’s television, it’s radio?  These are profound linear changes.

是攝影，是電視，是廣播？ 這些都是深刻的線性變化。

 Make a list and then look for opportunities and put your business strategy against those

列出一個清單，然後尋找機會，並將你的商業戰略與這些機會進行對接

certainty lists and you’ll find low risk and high reward.

確定名單，你會發現低風險高回報。