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  • I've been at MIT for 44 years.

    我在MIT待了44年 參加過第一屆TED

  • I went to TED I.

    我想在場應該只有一位有同等資歷

  • There's only one other person here, I think, who did that.

    在其他屆的演講中 -我從没缺席過TED-

  • All the other TEDs --

    我解釋了媒體實驗室的工作內容

  • and I went to them all, under Ricky's regime --

    實驗室現在大約有500名研究人員

  • I talked about what the Media Lab was doing,

    媒體上週說我已經退出實驗室

  • which today has almost 500 people in it.

    我實際上不是退出 只是卸下主席的職位

  • And if you read the press,

    這頭銜有點可笑 不過已有人接任

  • last week it actually said I quit the Media Lab.

    當教授的好處之一

  • I didn't quit the Media Lab, I stepped down as chairman --

    就是一日為教授 終生為教授

  • which was a kind of ridiculous title, but someone else has taken it on --

    我下半輩子將獻給「一個孩子、一台筆電」

  • and one of the things you can do as a professor

    畢竟這是我已經推廣一年半的計畫

  • is you stay on as a professor.

    也是今天演講的主題

  • And I will now do for the rest of my life the One Laptop Per Child,

    在這18分鐘內 我將告訴各位我的動機

  • which I've sort of been doing for a year and a half, anyway.

    計畫如何運作 以及現在的進度

  • So I'm going to tell you about this,

    等一下各位甚至有機會看看

  • use my 18 minutes to tell you why we're doing it,

    100美元的筆電到底長什麼樣子

  • how we're doing it and then what we're doing.

    克里斯希望我分享幾個重要議題

  • And at some point I'll even pass around

    因此我先講三個促成這個計畫的動機

  • what the $100 laptop might be like.

    第一個顯而易見

  • I was asked by Chris to talk about some of the big issues,

    當你與一國元首會晤 你問他:

  • and so I figured I'd start with the three that at least drove me to do this.

    「貴國最珍貴的天然資源是什麼?」

  • And the first is pretty obvious.

    他的第一個答案可能不是兒童

  • It's amazing when you meet a head of state, and you say,

    但你提出時 他們十之八九都贊同

  • "What is your most precious natural resource?"

    (1. 兒童是最珍貴的天然資源) 所以要說服他們一點也不難

  • They will not say "children" at first,

    (2. 消除貧困、戰爭、污染的良方是教育) 眾所皆知,要解決貧困國家的問題

  • and then when you say, "children," they will pretty quickly agree with you.

    (3. 除了接受教導 還有別的學習途徑) 教育是必須 甚至是唯一的必須

  • And so that isn't very hard.

    要解決問題 或多或少必須依賴教育

  • (Laughter)

    所以提供教育當然是計畫目的之一

  • Everybody agrees that whatever the solutions are to the big problems,

    第三個動機比較不明顯

  • they include education, sometimes can be just education

    這跟所有人學會走路、說話的模式有關

  • and can never be without some element of education.

    沒人教我們如何說話或走路

  • So that's certainly part of it.

    但與外界互動後 自然就學會了

  • And the third is a little bit less obvious.

    像是開口要求 物品就到了手裡

  • And that is that we all in this room learned how to walk, how to talk,

    或是站起來 就搆得到物品

  • not by being taught how to talk, or taught how to walk,

    但到大概六歲時 這種學習模式卻終止了

  • but by interacting with the world,

    從那之後所有的學習都透過教導

  • by having certain results as a consequence of being able to ask for something,

    不管是藉由像這樣聽講、讀書或其他方法

  • or being able to stand up and reach it.

    都透過教導而傳授

  • Whereas at about the age six, we were told to stop learning that way,

    而基本上 電腦對學習的貢獻之一

  • and that all learning from then on would happen through teaching,

    在於它提供的學習模式

  • whether it's people standing up, like I'm doing now,

    有點像學習走路和說話

  • or a book, or something.

    主導權是握在學習者自己手上的

  • But it was really through teaching.

    有這幾個動機作為原則

  • And one of the things in general that computers have provided to learning

    在座可能有人認識西摩派柏

  • is that it now includes a kind of learning

    這張照片攝於1982年塞內加爾

  • which is a little bit more like walking and talking,

    有些人以為這個計畫去年才開始

  • in the sense that a lot of it is driven by the learner himself or herself.

    或是前年 或這是我們突發奇想

  • So with those as the principles --

    其實計畫早在60年代就開始了

  • some of you may know Seymour Papert.

    這是80年代的進度 (這是教育計畫,不是筆電或手機計畫)

  • This is back in 1982, when we were working in Senegal.

    賈伯斯提供幾台筆電到塞內加爾

  • Because some people think that the $100 laptop just happened a year ago,

    規模不大 但至少將電腦帶到開發中國家

  • or two years ago, or we were struck by lightning --

    我們很快發現

  • this actually has gone back a long time, and in fact, back to the '60s.

    當地孩子即使不諳英語

  • Here we're in the '80s.

    甚至連拉丁字母都不認識

  • Steve Jobs had given us some laptops. We were in Senegal.

    用起電腦來卻怡然自得

  • It didn't scale

    得心應手

  • but it at least was bringing computers to developing countries

    後來 我自己有機會親身參與

  • and learning pretty quickly that these kids,

    這裡有兩個小故事 其中一則發生在柬埔寨

  • even though English wasn't their language,

    有個村子沒有水電 沒有電視、電話

  • the Latin alphabet barely was their language,

    但現在村民有寬頻網路

  • but they could just swim like fish.

    村裡孩子第一個學會的英文單字是"Google"

  • They could play these like pianos.

    除了Skype 不知電話為何物

  • A little bit more recently, I got involved personally.

    他們只用Skype

  • And these are two anecdotes --

    晚上回家他們就用寬頻連上網

  • one was in Cambodia,

    即使茅屋裡連電源都沒有

  • in a village that has no electricity, no water, no television, no telephone,

    父母親也愛上了這台筆電 因為一開機

  • but has broadband Internet now.

    它就成了屋裡最亮的光源

  • And these kids, their first English word is "Google"

    讓各位看看什麼叫美夢成真

  • and they only know Skype.

    這是學校實際的樣子

  • They've never heard of telephony.

    同一時間 派柏說服緬因州州長

  • They just use Skype.

    立法在2002年通過該計畫 (絕非兩人共用或一間教室一台)

  • And they go home at night --

    當時 若說八成的老師都憂心忡忡

  • they've got a broadband connection in a hut that doesn't have electricity.

    我想絕不為過

  • The parents love it, because when they open up the laptops,

    事實上 老師們並不贊成這個計畫

  • it's the brightest light source in the house.

    他們寧可把錢用作他途

  • And talk about where metaphors and reality mix --

    加薪、建新學校、或做其他事

  • this is the actual school.

    但三年半後的今天看看 情況如何?

  • In parallel with this, Seymour Papert got the governor of Maine

    他們回報了五個現象

  • to legislate one laptop per child in the year 2002.

    曠課率降到幾乎至零 家長會參與率大幅增加

  • Now at the time, I think it's fair to say that 80 percent of the teachers were --

    以前從沒人參加 現在全都來了

  • let me say, apprehensive.

    風紀問題減少 課堂參與熱絡

  • Really, they were actually against it.

    連老師都覺得現在教課很有意思

  • And they really preferred that the money would be used

    孩子們有參與感 因為有了筆電

  • for higher salaries, more schools, whatever.

    然後第五項發現是我最感興趣的

  • And now, three and a half years later, guess what?

    就是伺服器晚上有時候得關機

  • They're reporting five things: drop of truancy to almost zero,

    因為教師收到太多電子郵件

  • attending parent-teacher meetings --

    全是孩子們寫來問問題的

  • which nobody did and now almost everybody does --

    因此 這種計畫是不需要前測的

  • drop in discipline problems, increase in student participation.

    前測早就不適用了 如果有人說:

  • Teachers are now saying it's kind of fun to teach.

    「呃 先拿三四千台來 看看可不可行吧?」

  • Kids are engaged -- they have laptops! --

    去你的 閃遠點 自然有別人願意參與

  • and then the fifth, which interests me the most,

    等你明白計畫可行 再回來找我們吧

  • is that the servers have to be turned off at certain times at night

    這就是我們的作風

  • because the teachers are getting too much email

    (笑聲)(掌聲)

  • from the kids asking them for help.

    「一個孩子、一台筆電」是一年半前誕生的

  • So when you see that kind of thing --

    這個非營利組織已經募集資金 (透過NRE帳戶籌得2000萬美元)

  • this is not something that you have to test.

    解決設計的問題 然後再進行生產 (約法三章:規模,規模,規模!)

  • The days of pilot projects are over, when people say,

    (07年700-1000萬台,08年1-2億台) 規模至關重要 (在七大國推行)

  • "We'd like to do three or four thousand in our country to see how it works."

    (免費提供給而兒童) 這不是因為可以用更低價買零組件 明白嗎?

  • Screw you. Go to the back of the line and someone else will do it,

    而是因為 當你與合作廠商洽談時

  • and then when you figure out that this works, you can join as well.

    這邊我就不公佈是哪家廠商了

  • And this is what we're doing.

    你說 我們想要小螢幕 色彩均勻度差一點無妨

  • (Laughter) (Applause)

    甚至缺一兩個畫素、稍暗都無所謂

  • So, One Laptop Per Child was formed about a year and a half ago.

    這位廠商回答:

  • It's a nonprofit association.

    「呃,很抱歉,我們的專長是家用螢幕

  • It raised about 20 million dollars

    強調的就是色調飽滿

  • to do the engineering to just get this built,

    賣點是又大又鮮明的畫面

  • and then have it produced afterwards.

    您的要求實在有違敝公司的方針」

  • Scale is truly important.

    所以我回答:「喔,真可惜,

  • And it's not important because you can buy components at a lower price, OK?

    因為我們一年要一億台」

  • It's because you can go to a manufacturer --

    廠商口風一轉:「噢,我們的方針是可以調整的」

  • and I will leave the name out --

    所以我才說規模至關重要

  • but we wanted a small display,

    也因此 我們首批的需求至少要500到1000萬台

  • doesn't have to have perfect color uniformity.

    目的在於 達到一定的規模以後

  • It can even have a pixel or two missing.

    就能以規模制價

  • It doesn't have to be that bright.

    所以07年的目標才會訂這個數字

  • And this particular manufacturer said,

    我們也沒有業務和行銷團隊

  • "We're not interested in that. We're interested in the living room.

    頂多像我這樣到處演講而已

  • We're interested in perfect color uniformity.

    我們拜訪大國 徵求同意推行計畫

  • We're interested in big displays, bright displays.

    這樣其他國家也會跟進

  • You're not part of our strategic plan."

    我們有合作夥伴 當然Google也名列其中

  • And I said, "That's kind of too bad, because we need 100 million units a year."

    還有其他企業在觀望

  • (Laughter)

    就是它 最近在媒體上大出風頭

  • And they said, "Oh, well, maybe we could become part of your strategic plan."

    我們與安南一同推出了這台綠色機器

  • And that's why scale counts.

    是在11月突尼西亞的世界高峰會上

  • And that's why we will not launch this

    大家乍看之下的反應是:這是筆電計畫

  • without five to 10 million units in the first run.

    其實不是 這是教育計畫

  • And the idea is to launch with enough scale

    好玩的來了 這也是我努力的重點

  • that the scale itself helps bring the price down,

    我總說我以前是燈泡 現在是雷射

  • and that's why I said seven to 10 million there.

    我非把這個計畫做起來不可

  • And we're doing it without a sales-and-marketing team.

    而且我發現其實沒那麼難

  • I mean, you're looking at the sales-and-marketing team.

    原因是筆電各項成本有固定比重

  • We will do it by going to seven large countries

    一台筆電的售價 差不多有五成、接近六成

  • and getting them to agree and launch it,

    是付給了業務、行銷、流通和利潤

  • and then the others can follow.

    這些我們都沒有 對不對?

  • We have partners.

    所以這些項目沒有列在成本裡

  • It's not hard to guess Google would be one.

    因為我們用成本價出售 政府負責流通

  • The others are all playing to pending.

    透過學校系統分送 像發課本一樣

  • And this has been in the press a great deal.

    這些成本消失了 剩下的就是螢幕和其他部份

  • It's the so-called Green Machine that we introduced with Kofi Annan

    (成本壓到100美元的筆電) 至於螢幕成本 大致而言

  • in November at the World Summit that was held in Tunisia.

    是一英吋對角線10美元 (2005年筆電總價分析)

  • Now once people start looking at this, they say, "Ah, this is a laptop project."

    這價錢當然可以砍到8元或7元

  • Well, no, it's not a laptop project. It's an education project.

    但不可能降到2元或1.5元

  • And the fun part -- and I'm quite focused on it --

    除非我們有什麼重大突破

  • I tell people I used to be a light bulb, but now I'm a laser --

    其他部分 棕色那一小塊 就有趣了

  • I'm just going to get that thing built, and it turns out it's not so hard.

    因為其他成本就是筆電運作所需

  • Because laptop economics are the following:

    有點像過重的人 把大部分能量

  • I say 50 percent here -- it's more like 60,

    都消耗在移動一身肥肉上 懂了吧?

  • 60 percent of the cost of your laptop

    我們現在的處境實在有點匪夷所思

  • is sales, marketing, distribution and profit.

    我從筆電問世以來就開始用這東西了

  • Now we have none of those, OK?

    我的筆電跑得越來越慢、越不穩、越令人不滿

  • None of those figure into our cost,

    今年的狀況更是糟糕

  • because first of all, we sell it at cost, and the governments distribute it.

    你們聽到這會鼓掌 甚至起立歡呼。但我問:

  • It gets distributed to the school system like a textbook.

    「你們怎麼了?為什麼乖乖忍受這些不便?」

  • So that piece disappears.

    有人說 百元筆電是時髦玩具

  • Then you have display and everything else.

    我可不認同 我們的筆電跑得飛快

  • Now the display on your laptop costs,

    開機的時候 「逬!」一聲就可以用了

  • in rough numbers, 10 dollars a diagonal inch.

    就像1985年的蘋果麥金塔512電腦

  • That can drop to eight; it can drop to seven

    運作順暢

  • but it's not going to drop to two, or to one and a half,

    現在的筆電一代不如一代

  • unless we do some pretty clever things.

    常有人問我筆電的規格 (WiFi網狀網路)

  • It's the rest -- that little brown box -- that is pretty fascinating,

    就是如此 (雙模式顯示器)

  • because the rest of your laptop is devoted to itself.

    其中最值得一提的應是網狀網路

  • It's a little bit like an obese person

    孩子們同時使用筆電 就構成網路環境

  • having to use most of their energy to move their obesity.

    只需要一兩個後置網路傳輸點

  • (Laughter)

    2MB的頻寬就夠滿足兩千個孩子

  • And we have a situation today which is incredible.

    所以只要村內家家有筆電

  • I've been using laptops since their inception.

    整個村子就能聯成一個網路

  • And my laptop runs slower, less reliably and less pleasantly

    效果非常好

  • than it ever has before.

    雙模顯示 讓螢幕在戶外也能用

  • And this year is worse.

    在戶外用手機有什麼問題?

  • (Applause)

    呃,你根本看不清楚螢幕

  • People clap, sometimes you even get standing ovations,

    原因之一是 手機螢幕是背光式的

  • and I say, "What the hell's wrong with you? Why are we all sitting there?"

    大部分手機都是如此

  • And somebody -- to remain nameless -- called our laptop a "gadget" recently.

    我們想做的 是正背光兩用的螢幕

  • And I said, "God, our laptop's going to go like a bat out of hell.

    切換方式是手動還是用程式轉換還有待確認

  • When you open it up, it's going to go 'bing.'"

    反正 背光時 就是彩色螢幕

  • It'll be on.

    面光時 是三倍解析度的黑白螢幕

  • It'll be just like it was in 1985,

    這些都達成了嗎?還沒

  • when you bought an Apple Macintosh 512.

    所以我們很多人員現在常跑台灣

  • It worked really well.

    大概30天後就會知道可不可行

  • And we've been going steadily downhill.

    而最重要的部分

  • Now, people ask all the time what it is.

    應該是孩子們可以負責維修工作

  • That's what it is.

    這是另一個不可思議之處

  • The two pieces that are probably notable: it'll be a mesh network,

    但這是千真萬確的 (兒童負責維修工作)

  • so when the kids open up their laptops, they all become a network,

    這就是我們在突尼斯展示的筆電

  • and then just need one or two points of backhaul.

    這是未來設計的方向 (旋轉功能)

  • You can serve a couple of thousand kids with two megabits.

    之前以為這是做不到的

  • So you really can bring into a village,

    我現在把筆電傳下去

  • and then the villages can connect themselves,

    這並不是設計圖

  • and you really can do it quite well.

    它只是個粗製的樣本 讓各位看看

  • The dual mode display --

    只算是模型

  • the idea is to have a display that both works outdoors --

    實際成品在MIT

  • isn't it fun using your cell phone outdoors in the sunlight?

    從這位帥哥這裡開始傳

  • Well, you can't see it.

    讓你決定要往左還是往右傳

  • And one of the reasons you can't see it

    噢 我忘了有現場聯播 攝影機拍一下好嗎

  • is because it's backlighting most of the time, most cell phones.

    幸好你提醒 謝了 克里斯

  • Now, what we're doing is, we're doing one that will be both frontlit and backlit.

    這不僅是一台筆電

  • And whether you manually switch it or you do it in the software

    還可以變身成電子書

  • is to be seen.

    或是具備類似的功能

  • But when it's backlit, it's color.

    這樣就可以在戶外看黑白螢幕

  • And when it's frontlit, it's black and white

    雖然沒有遊戲鈕 不過它也是遊戲機

  • at three times the resolution.

    把螢幕豎起來 可以當電視

  • Is it all worked out? No.

    有許多用途 這樣展示清楚了嗎?好

  • That's why a lot of our people are more or less living in Taiwan right now.

    吉姆會決定等下要往哪邊傳

  • And in about 30 days, we'll know for sure whether this works.

    回到剛剛說的七大國 (笑聲)(七國:中國 印度 泰國 埃及 奈及利亞 巴西 阿根廷)

  • Probably the most important piece there

    麻州還不確定 因為他們必須要進行招標

  • is that the kids really can do the maintenance.

    依法行事就得遵照程序進行

  • And this is again something that people don't believe,

    所以我現在還不敢下定論

  • but I really think it's quite true.

    其他國家不需要招標就可以決定

  • That's the machine we showed in Tunis.

    決策者都是中央政府

  • This is more the direction that we're going to go.

    不過惱人的是 很多人說

  • And it's something that we didn't think was possible.

    「我們從地方政府開始下手吧」

  • Now, I'm going to pass this around.

    當然 地方政府規模小 一定比中央靈活

  • This isn't a design, OK?

    但是我們發現

  • So this is just a mechanical engineering sort of embodiment of it

    我們交涉的對象其實是中央政府

  • for you to play with.

    面對的是教育部

  • And it's clearly just a model.

    環顧世界各國政府

  • The working one is at MIT.

    教育部往往是最保守的

  • I'm going to pass it to this handsome gentleman.

    也是人員最多的部門

  • At least you can decide whether it goes left or --

    每位都自詡為教育專家

  • Chris Anderson: Before you do it, for the people down in simulcast --

    其中又牽涉許多文化層面

  • Nicholas Negroponte: Sorry! I forgot. CA: Just show it off a bit.

    推行計畫真的不容易 十分艱鉅

  • So wherever the camera is -- OK, good point. Thank you, Chris.

    這些國家各有不同的地理文化

  • The idea was that it would be not only a laptop,

    每國都同意推行嗎?沒有

  • but that it could transform into an electronic book.

    泰國 巴西 奈及利亞是比較積極的

  • So it's sort of an electronic book.

    也最願意配合

  • This is where when you go outside, it's in black and white.

    我們尚未與任一國簽署任何協議

  • The games buttons are missing,

    要等筆電完工

  • but it'll also be a games machine,

    我每三個月拜訪這些國家一次

  • book machine.

    等於我每三週就環遊世界一圈

  • Set it up this way, and it's a television set.

    這是我們大致的進度

  • Etc., etc. -- is that enough for simulcast? OK, sorry.

    希望在兩年後的TED大會上免費發送

  • I'll let Jim decide which way to send it afterwards.

    每個人都說 成本100元的筆電 辦不到的

  • OK. Seven countries.

    知道嗎 我們確實辦不到

  • (Laughter)

    一開始大約是135元 然後慢慢降價

  • I say "maybe" for Massachusetts, because they actually have to do a bid.

    這點非常重要

  • By law you've got to bid, and so on and so forth.

    因為許多商品上市後 價格會逐漸上漲

  • So I can't quite name them.

    就是先以低價促銷 打響知名度後

  • In the other cases, they don't have