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  • Ask Siri whether we are in a technology bubble, and all Apple's silky-voiced digital assistant could say is "interesting question."

    開啓 Siri,問她我們目前是不是處於科技泡沫中,這位聲音溫柔的蘋果電子助理就會說「好問題」

  • And indeed it is.

    確實是好問題

  • The US equity market's increasingly punchy valuations

    美股市場的估價不斷衝高

  • and rise to a new record high on Thursday have caused a lot of hand-wringing.

    甚至在星期四創歷史新高,投資人逐漸為此感到焦慮

  • But strip out tech and things do look less frothy.

    但拿掉科技股,美股似乎就沒有那麼多泡泡了

  • The S&P 500 has gained nearly 8% this year but tech shares have jumped almost 20%.

    標普500的漲幅將近8%,但其中的科技股暴漲了將近20%

  • Strip out that, and the US equity benchmark is up just 1.4%.

    扣除這些科技股後,美股總體就只上升了大約1.4%

  • If we zoom out, it becomes clear there is a broad rally in so-called "growth" stocks.

    如果我們退一步看,很明顯地,成長股普遍呈現蓬勃漲勢

  • The performance of S&P 500 growth shares relative to value stocks is just 1 percentage point of being the greatest since the dot-com bubble in 2000.

    標普500下的成長股相對於價值股的表現,差一個百分點就達到自2000年網際網路泡沫以來的最高點

  • But technology is the primary driver, especially the FAANGtastic Five.

    但科技業無疑是最主要的推動力,尤其是美國五大科技股

  • The shares of Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Netflix have all gained over 30% this year.

    臉書、蘋果、亞馬遜、Netflix 股都在今年上漲了超過30%

  • And Google is up 24%.

    谷歌則漲24%

  • Their total market capitalization now stands at a whopping 2.4 trillion dollars.

    這五家的總市值目前達到驚人的2.4兆美元

  • That makes them bigger than the entire French CAC-40 Index or Germany's DAX.

    已超過巴黎 CAC-40 和法蘭克福 DAX 下的股票總值

  • Nearly as large as the entire FTSE 100.

    幾乎與富時100指數股票的總值相當

  • The question is whether investors are getting sucked into the market's biggest momentum play,

    現在的問題是:我們是不是正目睹史上最大的動量效應,而投資人卻紛紛投身於其中

  • pushing up valuations to bubbly levels.

    導致股價幾近泡沫化

  • And there are some worrying signs of this.

    而我們確實可以看到一些令人憂心的跡象

  • Hedge funds are tilting heavily towards tech.

    大半的避險基金被投注於科技股

  • Facebook, Amazon and Google are the biggest positions in most funds tracked by Goldman Sachs.

    高盛所追蹤的大多數投資基金中,占最大比例的莫過於臉書、亞馬遜與谷歌

  • And if inflows into tech-focused mutual funds maintain the same pace,

    如果市場對於投資科技股導向的共同基金也如此積極的話

  • then this will be the strongest year in 50 years according to Bank of America.

    根據美國銀行的說法,今年會是這五十年來最強勢的一年

  • Meanwhile, Citi's Global Economic Surprise Index,

    另一方面,花旗的全球經濟意外指數

  • which measures how often data come out better or worse than expected,

    用於衡量實際數據與市場期望之間落差頻率的指數

  • has slumped to the lowest since November,

    降至自十一月以來的最低點

  • and that should give investors who have piled into equities some pause for thought.

    這告訴急於投資科技股的投資人,也許他們應該暫緩投資,先思考一下

  • Nonetheless, it's probably too soon to call time on the tech-powered rally.

    不過,現在提及科技股熱潮的消退似乎太早了些

  • While the Nasdaq Internet Index is trading at 34 times its forward looking earnings,

    納斯達克互聯網指數股的交易價已達到未來預期獲益的34倍

  • the big S&P 500 tech gauge is trading at a more reasonable 18 times.

    而規模較大的標普500科技股交易價則落於較合理的18倍

  • And there is little on the horizon to dent the growth of the FAANGs.

    美國五大科技股漲勢在近期內不太可能消退

  • But at some point the momentum will reverse.

    但假以時日,這股動量終會逆轉

  • As BAML said in a recent note,

    美銀美林最近指出

  • there are nascent signs we're in the very early stages of an overshoot.

    已漸漸有跡象顯示我們處於超漲的早期階段

Ask Siri whether we are in a technology bubble, and all Apple's silky-voiced digital assistant could say is "interesting question."

開啓 Siri,問她我們目前是不是處於科技泡沫中,這位聲音溫柔的蘋果電子助理就會說「好問題」

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科技助力美股反彈|短線觀點 (Tech electrifies US market rally | Short View)

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    missnerdypants 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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