And indeed it is.

確實是好問題

The US equity market's increasingly punchy valuations

美股市場的估價不斷衝高

and rise to a new record high on Thursday have caused a lot of hand-wringing.

甚至在星期四創歷史新高，投資人逐漸為此感到焦慮

But strip out tech and things do look less frothy.

但拿掉科技股，美股似乎就沒有那麼多泡泡了

The S&P 500 has gained nearly 8% this year but tech shares have jumped almost 20%.

標普500的漲幅將近8%，但其中的科技股暴漲了將近20%

Strip out that, and the US equity benchmark is up just 1.4%.

扣除這些科技股後，美股總體就只上升了大約1.4%

If we zoom out, it becomes clear there is a broad rally in so-called "growth" stocks.

如果我們退一步看，很明顯地，成長股普遍呈現蓬勃漲勢

The performance of S&P 500 growth shares relative to value stocks is just 1 percentage point of being the greatest since the dot-com bubble in 2000.

標普500下的成長股相對於價值股的表現，差一個百分點就達到自2000年網際網路泡沫以來的最高點

But technology is the primary driver, especially the FAANGtastic Five.

但科技業無疑是最主要的推動力，尤其是美國五大科技股

The shares of Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Netflix have all gained over 30% this year.

臉書、蘋果、亞馬遜、Netflix 股都在今年上漲了超過30%

And Google is up 24%.

谷歌則漲24%

Their total market capitalization now stands at a whopping 2.4 trillion dollars.

這五家的總市值目前達到驚人的2.4兆美元

That makes them bigger than the entire French CAC-40 Index or Germany's DAX.

已超過巴黎 CAC-40 和法蘭克福 DAX 下的股票總值

Nearly as large as the entire FTSE 100.

幾乎與富時100指數股票的總值相當

The question is whether investors are getting sucked into the market's biggest momentum play,

現在的問題是：我們是不是正目睹史上最大的動量效應，而投資人卻紛紛投身於其中

pushing up valuations to bubbly levels.

導致股價幾近泡沫化

And there are some worrying signs of this.

而我們確實可以看到一些令人憂心的跡象

Hedge funds are tilting heavily towards tech.

大半的避險基金被投注於科技股

Facebook, Amazon and Google are the biggest positions in most funds tracked by Goldman Sachs.

高盛所追蹤的大多數投資基金中，占最大比例的莫過於臉書、亞馬遜與谷歌

And if inflows into tech-focused mutual funds maintain the same pace,

如果市場對於投資科技股導向的共同基金也如此積極的話

then this will be the strongest year in 50 years according to Bank of America.

根據美國銀行的說法，今年會是這五十年來最強勢的一年

Meanwhile, Citi's Global Economic Surprise Index,

另一方面，花旗的全球經濟意外指數

which measures how often data come out better or worse than expected,

用於衡量實際數據與市場期望之間落差頻率的指數

has slumped to the lowest since November,

降至自十一月以來的最低點

and that should give investors who have piled into equities some pause for thought.

這告訴急於投資科技股的投資人，也許他們應該暫緩投資，先思考一下

Nonetheless, it's probably too soon to call time on the tech-powered rally.

不過，現在提及科技股熱潮的消退似乎太早了些

While the Nasdaq Internet Index is trading at 34 times its forward looking earnings,

納斯達克互聯網指數股的交易價已達到未來預期獲益的34倍

the big S&P 500 tech gauge is trading at a more reasonable 18 times.

而規模較大的標普500科技股交易價則落於較合理的18倍

And there is little on the horizon to dent the growth of the FAANGs.

美國五大科技股漲勢在近期內不太可能消退

But at some point the momentum will reverse.

但假以時日，這股動量終會逆轉

As BAML said in a recent note,

美銀美林最近指出

there are nascent signs we're in the very early stages of an overshoot.

已漸漸有跡象顯示我們處於超漲的早期階段